Determining the Predictors of Postpartum Depression in Vietnamese Women: Mediating Effect of Maternal Role Strain

NGUYEN THI PHUONG THAO Garduate school, Inje university, Korea 2021 국내박사

Postpartum depression is a significant public health issue which has not only negative effects on maternal postpartum health but also on family relationship and infant growth and development. In Vietnam, postpartum depression is not usually cared in the community as well as in the health care system because it is insufficiently screened or diagnosed and followed up during the postpartum period. Moreover, there is very little research analyzing, predicting factors of postpartum depression. Especially there is less study of the mediating effects of maternal role strain among self-efficacy, social support, infant temperament, and postpartum depression in Vietnam. Moreover, the support of the theoretical model in which self-efficacy, social support, and infant temperament were linked to postpartum depression symptoms through their effects on maternal role strain is important both contribute to conceptual understanding of these processes and to seek effective interventions for postpartum depression in Vietnamese women. Thus, the purposes of this study are to identify the predictors for postpartum depression and determine the mediating effects of the maternal role strain on the relationship among the degree of self-efficacy, infant temperament, social support, and postpartum depression. Methods: The focus of correlational descriptive research design was performed on 190 mothers who were the first birth from four weeks to six months and be enrolled to give vaccination in 12 community health centers of Hue city in Vietnam. Data gathering tools included the “Perceived Self-Efficacy Scale”, “Maternal Social Support Scale”, “Difficult Infant Temperament Scale”, “Maternal Role Strain Scale”, and “Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS)”. Data analysis was done by using the SPSS software, which was based on descriptive statistics and statistical independent t-test or one-way ANOVA test, mediation. These were tested by a series of multiple regressions by using Baron and Kenny methods. The Sobel test was used to test the significance of the mediating effects. Results: The prevalence of probable postpartum depression which had the EPDS score at or greater cut-off of 13 points was 18.9%. There were a significant differences between postpartum depression and mother’s occupation (t=-2.86, p=.005), relationship with her husband (F=5.91, p=.003), stressful life events (t=2.94, p=.004), paid maternity leave (F=6.83, p=.001), and gestational age (t=3.32, p=.001), history of mental health (t=3.86, p<.001), self-efficacy (r=-.15, p=.030), and social support (r=-.38, p<.001), infant temperament (r=.40, p<.001), and maternal role strain (r=.59, p<.001). Furthermore, there was identified paid maternity leave (β=-.16, p=.004), gestational age (β=.15, p=.005), history of mental health (β=-.19, p=.002), self-efficacy (β=.12, p=.031), and the maternal role strain (β=.47, p<.001) as the prediction of postpartum depression. The regression model with significant predictors explains 46% of the variance. As the mediating effects, maternal role strain had a full mediating effect on the relationship between self-efficacy and postpartum depression. Besides, maternal role strain was also a partial mediating effect on the relationship between maternal social support, infant temperament and postpartum depression among postpartum women. Conclusion: The findings of this study contribute to nursing science by identifying the mediating effects of maternal role strain on postpartum depression in Vietnam. Future research suggests solutions for professional experts of community mental health to develop effective intervention strategies which aims at the reduction of maternal role strain to decrease the impact of self-efficacy, social support, infant temperament on postpartum depression.

(A) comparative analysis of English teacher training qualifications in Turkey and Korea

Gun, Havva Graduate School, Korea University 2017 국내석사

The aim of this study is to compare qualification of English language teachers based on policies, curriculum of English Language education departments and teacher pre-service practicum in Turkey and Korea. This study, focusing on the English language teacher education system, explores ways to prepare teachers for new standards and policies which could be set between English language teaching professionals and education policy makers. Suggestions are made about English Language teacher qualification and teachers’ satisfaction on the basis of the study’s findings. This research was conducted using qualitative and quantitative research methods. The process of qualification, activities and administration in the two education systems were investigated through interviewing, 5 likert-scale survey and e-mail responses of English language teachers who studied in the department of English at Korea University, Seoul National University in Korea, Marmara University and Gazi University in Turkey. The findings indicate there are vast differences between the two countries’ English language education not only in terms of the English teacher training policy but also the satisfaction regarding the evaluation and training process of English teachers and senior students based on curriculum and practicum in English language education department of the universities. There are big differences between Turkey and Korea in regards to curriculum contents, teaching practicum implementation and teacher employment test method. While most of Korean participants prefer the Turkish practicum stage as an alternative, Turkish participants approached the Korean practicum in a positive light, but most participants revealed that duration of the practicum is quite short. On the other hand, both nations’ participants stated that they were satisfied with their own curriculums but Turkish participants’ satisfaction was seen higher than Korean participants in English language departments. Bu çalisma, Türkiye ve Kore’nin İngilizce oğretmenliği eğitimini, üniversite müfredati ve öğretmenlik stajerliği alanında analiz yaparak iki ülke arasındaki İngilizce öğretmenliği bölümlerinin müfredatını inceleme ve karşılaştırmayı amaç edinmiştir. Yabancı dil öğretmeni eğitimi üzerine odaklanan bu calisma, İngilizce öğretimi profesyonelleri ve politika oluşturanları tarafından gerçekleştirilebilecek yeni standartlar ve uygulamalar için iki ülkenin İngilizce öğretmeni yetiştirme yollarını incelemekte ve öneriler sunmaktadır. Bulgular orta ve lise İngilizce öğretmenliği eğitimini inceleyerek yabancı dil öğretmen niteliğine bir bakış açısı sunmaktadır. E-mail yanıtları, repörtaj ve de 5-likert soru kalıbıyla ölçülen üniversitelerin İnligizce öğretmenliği bölümü müfredatı ile stajerlik uygulamaları karşılaştırılmıştır ve bu programda eğitim görmüş katılımcıların memnuniyetleri analiz edilmiştir. Sorular Türkiye’de Marmara ve Gazi Üniversitesinde, Kore’de Seoul Ulusal Devlet Üniversitesi ile Korea Üniversitesi öğrencileri üzerinden uygulanmıştır. Araştırma sonucunda iki ülkenin İngilizce öğretmenliği programları müfredat ve stajerlik açısından açık fark göstermektedir ayrıca bu programda eğitim görmüş olan kişilerin memnuniyetleri de farklı alanlarda görülmüştür. Koreli öğretmenler Türk stajerlik sistemini alternatif olarak daha fazla tercih ederken, Türk öğretmenler Kore stajerliğine pozitif yaklaşırken süreç olarak yeterli bulmamışlardır.

Sino-North Korea relations : managing the alliance security dilemma

천웨이위 Korea University 2016 국내석사

As one of the most studied bilateral relations, the Sino-North Korea alliance is a focal point of the Northeast Asian region. Recently, many observers have characterized the relationship as “fragile”, “strained”, and “uneasy” after North Korea’s four nuclear tests in 2006, 2009, 2013 and most recently in 2016. Through two different international theoretical lenses, the thesis argues that China has employed foreign policies that are realist and liberal institutionalist in nature in order to moderate North Korea’s intransigent behaviors. Walking on a tightrope in balancing the strategic benefit and liability that North Korea has created, China played a combined strategy of selectively providing economic assistance and withholding military cooperation (realist) to North Korea, as well as a strategy of downgrading China’s relations with North Korea and encouraging it to conduct economic reform that can potentially lead to its economic integration into the region (institutionalist). In order to compete with South Korea and the U.S. in a more positive-sum and benign manner, China attempted to shape North Korea to become an ideal ally: reasonably prosperous and modest in nature. However, even though its two-pronged policy received some positive results, China largely failed in its attempt to successfully manage its relationship with DPRK; therefore, it is expecting to resolve the North Korean issue over the long run.

What are the implications of China's rising military power for South Korea?

최다은 Korea University 2018 국내석사

Along with economic growth, China has significantly achieved military power that attracted global attention. Global society has different opinions on China’s rising military power as China has been expanding military power now. The purpose of thesis is to investigate China’s rising military power and its implications for South Korea. Thesis primarily investigates a source of China’s rising military power through main international relations theories: realism, liberalism and constructivism. And thesis understands China’s recent defense modernization driven by informationization, and Chinese leadership’s desire to carry out joint operations. Thesis critically investigates two points such as China’s maritime challenge to the U.S, and China-North Korea relations. Lastly thesis highlights four main implications for South Korea

Directions of unified Korea's alliance with the United States

한희경 Korea University 2017 국내석사

This research objective is to find a direction of the unified Korea’s alliance policy with the U.S. in balance of interest by prospecting status and options and by analyzing the benefits and losses on the Korean unification and its alliance policy that could be brought to surrounding countries. In the 2009 Joint Vision for the ROK-US alliance and at the commemoration of the 60th anniversary of the alliance in 2013, the both countries agreed that the alliance should lay the groundwork for the reunification of the Korean Peninsula. It is very meaningful for the two countries to prepare the future of the strategic alliance between them in terms of considering the environment of the unified Korea in Northeast Asia and their interests. However, there are concerns about the continued alliance with the U.S. after the Korean unification despite the removal of a threat-North Korea, which has been the reason of the ROK-US alliance. There has been argument about alliance formations based on the balance of power, balance of threat so far. However, after the Korean unification, the strategic relations and choices between countries will be come from more consideration of balance of interest than recognition of threat. Regarding this, chapter two will see theory and literature review and prospecting internal status of the unified Korea and its impact on the international relations and analyzing benefits and losses of the great powers on the unified Korea will be followed in chapter three. Reflecting these, the chapter four will see three impossible options (neutralization, alliance with China instead of the U.S., and the unified Korea’s nuclear armament without alliance) and one possible option (continued Korea-US alliance based on interests) as the unified Korea’s alliance policy with considerations of balance of interest and various circumstances. Lastly, based on this analysis and prospect, this paper will see restructuring forces of the future Korea-US alliance as a proper policy.

(The) configuration of middle power in South Korea's foreign policy

Jeong, Monica Sooyul Korea University 2018 국내박사

The middle power discourse has been proliferated in South Korea’s media and academia since the inception of Lee Myung Bak administration’s Global Korea in 2008. It has become an official foreign policy posture under President Park Geun-hye’s leadership. While there are numerous studies that explain South Korea’s middle power characteristics and roles with the assumption that it is a middle power, there is yet to be an in-depth understanding of why South Korea has chosen to adopt the middle power classification. In order to uncover the actual significance and use of the middle power classification in South Korea’s foreign policy, this research took South Korean leaders’ foreign policy discourses between the years 1948 and 2014, and conducted a discourse analysis relative to South Korea’s environment inside and outside the Korean Peninsula. The findings indicate that the underlying significance of South Korea’s middle power classification operates in a social environment comprised of the dominant and less dominant countries. By identifying ‘self’ as a ‘middle power,’ South Korea seeks to gently balance and neutralize the asymmetrical relationships and thereby, create its complex environment more conducive for its interests, including the removal of its long-ingrained victim mindset. Therefore, South Korea’s middle power position should not be generalized by the conventional connotations of its increased capacity and greater responsibilities in the world. Instead, it requires an analysis of discourse that can analyze and explain the inseparable relationship the middle power classification has with ideology and power distribution.

Within the boundaries : migration choices of women from North Korea

권진아 Korea University 2018 국내박사

Why would many North Korean women prefer life in China, living as an undocumented migrant, to legal residence in South Korea? Why is it that many North Korean women do not want to live in South Korea, even after arriving in the country, and even after experiencing the dire conditions in North Korea and China? There have been many studies on North Korean women, which can be broadly divided into two groups: the first focuses on the role of the savior of victimized women from North Korea; the other concentrates on empowering those women by emphasizing their agency. Hence, the former takes a rather paternalistic approach, whilst the latter allows the women their agency but leaves them stuck with the status quo. Using participant observations from 2012 to early 2018, and in-depth interviews with 40 women, in both China and South Korea, this study attempts to answer the aforementioned questions with concepts like migration choice and happiness, through a close analysis of the individual women’s narratives about their motivations and experiences of migration. The narratives of these women demonstrate views that differ from conventional ideas about what it means to live a better life, regardless of whether they are located in North Korea, China, or South Korea. Contrary to the general perception of developed societies, that happiness in a modern society should prioritize economic life and give a guarantee of human rights in lineal way, the narratives of the North Korean women illustrate a holistic and multifaceted understanding of happiness, human rights, and migration choice. This study finds that there are diverse reasons why women choose to stay in or leave certain places, such as family duty, spousal betrayal, family disagreement, state corruption, love of family, socio-economic improvement, wanderlust, and career ambition, among others. While the reasons for migration vary from individual to individual, this paper argues that such women have been bound by the agendas set by sociopolitical theories of North Korean migration, which suppress and hide the individual choices of the women themselves. However, the women who provide their voices for this study are those who are hoping for opportunities to better themselves, even when in the position of the victim—as many are commonly labeled. In other words, they are neither victims, nor aggressive go-getters striving for survival, as they are generally perceived and described in many kinds of literature. They are just living their daily lives under various dynamics, as they dream of the best that is yet to come. Thus, throughout the interviews and further studies described here, this research finds that the subjective experience of each of these women is that of a freed person, at whose core lies not the political rhetoric of countries such as North Korea, South Korea, or China, but an inner calling to look for happiness. These various reasons for migration give further directions for future development.

Characteristics and restrictiveness of rules of origin in the Korea-Australia FTA : an empirical analysis

Kang, Narae Korea University 2017 국내석사

Rules of origin (RoO) are necessary and important in free trade agreements (FTAs), given the fact that their function is to prevent trade deflection. However, with the proliferation of FTAs over the last two decades, diverse RoO among the different FTAs have resulted in increases in the cost of complying with the complex requirement of RoO. In other words, RoO can play a role as trade barriers. Thus, it is critical to find out how demanding RoO are, in order not to limit exporters’ opportunities for more markets. On this ground, this paper analyzed the restrictiveness of RoO, which can be hidden protection, with the example of the bilateral FTA between Korea and Australia, using a method proposed by Estevadeordal (2000). It revealed that the restrictiveness index of the Korea-Australia FTA is 4.26, lower than those of the Korea-China FTA (4.43), the Korea-EFTA FTA (4.53), the Korea-ASEAN FTA (4.59), and the Korea-Chile FTA (4.82). This low restrictiveness index of the Korea-Australia FTA can be explained mainly by the complementary industrial and trade structure and significant amount of trade volume between the two countries. Then, examining restrictiveness of RoO for nineteen sectors, it is found that the agricultural and animal sector is the most restrictive among all the sectors, whereas the chemical and electrical equipment sectors are less restrictive. In addition, the analysis has shown that the restrictiveness of RoO in major five sectors in the Korea-Australia FTA lies between those of the China-Australia FTA and the Japan-Australia FTA. Given the results of this research, even though RoO in the Korea-Australia FTA are less restrictive than those of Korea’s other FTAs, Korea should adopt a more strategic approach to trade policy, considering the restrictiveness of RoO and Korea’s position in the Australian market vis-à-vis China and Japan. Furthermore, the Korean government needs to review these factors for renegotiation of the Korea-Australia FTA in the future.

(A) comparative study on the political transformation of Poland and South Korea in the 1980s

Tomasz, Wilczynski Graduate School, Korea University 2014 국내석사

The central theme of this paper is a comparison of the processes of democratisation that took place in Poland and South Korea. Both countries underwent political liberalisation and democratisation in the mid-late 1980s and are commonly classified as part of the so called “third wave” of democratisation (Huntington 1991; Diamond 1997; Diamond & Kim 2000; Diamond & Shin 2000; Lee & Lee 2008; Lind 2011; Heo 2012). After the World War II, Poland, side by side with several other countries from Central and Eastern Europe, found itself under the Soviet sphere of influence. The country which had already maintained a democratic system of government before the War was forced to become a one-party state with Communism as its state ideology. The country’s economy accordingly had to go through transformation from capitalism to a Soviet-style centrally planned economic system. In such a situation it was impossible for the state to remain fully independent. Even though Poland had not been incorporated into the Soviet Union itself, the country became a satellite of the USSR. The people of Poland were forced to struggle under such an authoritarian system for nearly 45 years until the late 1980s when the democratic forces finally managed to compel the government to negotiate and implement political and economic reforms that as a result led to a transformation of the whole political system from one-party Communist authoritarianism to parliamentary democracy with free economy. One the other hand, the Republic of Korea was established as one of the two separate Korean states in 1948. The World War II brought an end to the long-lasting Japanese occupation of the Korean peninsula. From the very beginning the official ideology of the state was anti-Communism and capitalism. Even though the country formerly belonged to the so called “Free World”, in reality the government leaders, first civilian and later led by the military, used authoritarian methods to maintain control over the country and the citizens. For many years pro-democratic forces were attempting to put pressure on the authoritarian government to respect their rights and democratise the system. Yet, it was only in the middle of the 1980s that the government began to implement limited reforms that in the end led to liberalisation of the political space which as a result later became full-scaled democratisation (Seong 1995; Shin 1999). The paper is constructed of four chapters. In the first chapter the existing theories of democratisation are analysed and summarised. The focus is set on basic concepts such as democracy, liberalisation, democratic transition and democratic consolidation. Before discussing democratisation, it is necessary to define the concept of democracy itself. There already exist a plethora of definitions of democracy, some of whom are very narrow, defining democracy only as a system where competitive elections are organised, while others take into account the actual organisation, power and execution of democratic institutions, democratic culture, etc. (Huntington 1991; Diamond 1999). After having defined the fundamental concepts of the theory of democratisation, it is then necessary to distinguish between democratisation and liberalisation. The two concepts are often used alongside, yet their meaning different in the very substance. In fact, the former may evolve from the latter, i.e. it is possible for democratisation to stem from liberalisation. However, there is no guarantee that such a process will ever take place (Przeworski 1991). Moreover, the purpose of the two processes is completely different. Liberalisation is commonly used as a tool by authoritarian regime to seek for stabilisation and public support for the undemocratic rule, while democratisation means full-fledged transition from authoritarianism to democracy (Priban 2012). Only when a clear distinction between the two concepts exists, it is possible to analyse democratic transition and democratic consolidation. At this point, it is necessary to draw a line between democratic transition and democratic consolidation. The two processes are related with each other, i.e. democratic transition is usually followed by democratic consolidation. Yet, democratic transition without democratic consolidation is also possible. Therefore, it is necessary to provide clear definitions of each of the two processes in order to be able to precisely define their timelines and characteristics. The second part of the first chapter deals with the Wave Theory of Democratisation and the impact of economic growth on democratisation. The Wave Theory was first propagated by Samuel Huntington (Huntington 1991) and is now widely accepted by other prominent scholars (Diamond 1997; Diamond & Kim 2000; Diamond & Shin 2000; Lee & Lee 2008; Lind 2011; Heo 2012). Both Poland and South Korea democratised during the Third Wave of democratisation. Therefore, it is necessary to analyse the basic principles of the theory in order to be able to better understand what conditions had influence on how the two countries went through democratic transformations respectively. Apart from the international influences it is also important not to underestimate the role played by economy conditions in democratisation. The economic approach to democratisation suggests that it is economy rather ideology which exerts the decisive influence on individuals’ political choices. Moreover, the condition of the state’s economy is one of the determinant factors that decide whether democratisation is possible or not. Such economic approaches to the theory of democratisation are discussed in this part of the first chapter. The last part of the chapter deals with differences within various types of authoritarian regimes and their influence on how those regimes typically democratise. Specifically, the process of transplacement is analysed in details in order to properly understand democratisation in Poland and South Korea. In the second chapter democratisation of Poland is discussed. In order to understand the democratisation process that took place in Poland in the late 1980s it is necessary to analyse the history of the Solidarity movement and its struggle against the Communist authoritarian regime. Through such an analysis it shall be possible to determine which conditions and factors were required for liberalisation and democratisation of the Soviet-style Communist regime in Poland. Next, the impact of the international situation and economic conditions on Poland in the 1980s is analysed. After that, the negotiations between the Communist government and the opposition are analysed in order to find out how both parties managed to come into agreement on the future system of government and what kind of tactics were used that at the end made a peaceful democratic transformation in the Republic of Poland possible. The third chapter focuses on democratisation in South Korea. As in the Polish case, it is necessary to analyse the historical background of democratisation before moving to the final democratisation process itself which occurred in the late 1980s following nearly 50 years of struggle. It is important to differentiate between several distinctive factors that shaped the way through which the democratic movement had developed in the ROK. There exist at least several distinct aspects such as the division of the country, the military and ideological threat from North Korea, chaebol capitalism, and the democratic transition itself which was conducted through a process of transplacement. All of those factors exerted influence on how the democratic transition came into existence in the state of South Korea. In the last chapter the focus is set on a comparison between the democratisation processes in the two countries order to find differences and similarities between them. Until the present day a large number of papers have been written that deal with the subject of democratisation in Poland (Jo 1987; Gang 1988; Bak 1989; Jo 1990; Choi 1993; Seong 1995; Yoon 1997; Shin 1999; Diamond & Kim 2000; Diamond & Shin 2000; Jeong & Kim & Jeong 2004; Jeong 2007; Lee 2007; Lee & Lee 2008; Baek 2009; Ji 2009; Lee 2009; Bak 2010; Croissant 2010; Kim 2000; Sin & Jo 2006; Jung 2011; Lind 2011; Shin 2011; Choe & Kim 2012; Heo 2012). The same is true for the democratisation in South Korea (Brzezinski, 1989; Yoon 1989; Elster 1991; Przeworski 1991; Jaruzelski 1993; Choi 1995; Lee E. 1995; Lee G. 1995; Sikorski 1996; Choi 1997; Lee 1997; Linz & Stepan 1997; Munck & Leff 1997; Wakabayashi 1997; Brzezinski 1998; Staar 1998; Nagle & Mahr 1999; Choi 2000; Saxonberg 2000; Dryzek & Holmes 2002; Glenn 2003; Korea Progressive Academy Council 2003; Paczynska 2005; Puchalska 2005; May 2007). In the majority of those works Poland was usually compared with other Communist European countries, such as Czechoslovakia, Hungary or East Germany (Yoon 1989; Saxonberg 2000). The process of democratisation in South Korea has also been subject of many comparative studies. In those studies S. Korea was often portrayed together with other Asian countries such as Taiwan (Wakabayashi 1997; Jung 2011) or Thailand (Lee & Lee 2008). However, no study exists in which the two countries are compared directly with each other. Even though the similarities between the processes of democratisation between the two regimes are mentioned in several different works (Huntington 1999), no one single paper dealing with comparison of the two regimes exist at the moment. Yet, by analysing the democratic transitions of the two regimes, it becomes clear that the processes occurred in a very similar manner. Therefore, despite the geographical and cultural differences between the two distant states, it may be useful to analyse and compare the two democratic transitions in order to determine what kind of conditions and factors were required for them to take place. Through such an analysis it shall be possible to define the conditions that are necessary for democratic transition through transplacement to happen, regardless of the geographical and cultural differences. Moreover, the two countries share similar history. Both Poland’s and Korea’s geographical location led to the countries being invaded and occupied by foreign powers. The two states have always been placed under heavy ideological and military pressure from their neighbours. Such circumstances eventually led to the long-lasting occupation and control of the country’s affairs by its enemies. South Korea was occupied by Japan for 40 years while Poland had been first partitioned by its three strong neighbours in the 18th century, i.e. Prussia, Austro-Hungary and Russia, then regained independence in the early 20th century only to lose it again due to the German invasion in 1939 which marked the beginning of the World War II. Furthermore, even after the War, nor Poland neither Korea was allowed to enjoy independence. Poland became a satellite state for the USSR with its political and economic system modelled after the hegemon. Korea was partitioned into two hostile regimes, i.e. North and South Korea. South Korea became a state that was totally dependent on the USA. The government ruled by authoritarian methods and utilised ideology only to achieve its own goals and strengthen its legitimacy. Thus, even though the ideology and political systems differed in each case, the overall situation was analogical, i.e. each of the two states was forced to follow the policies of the regional hegemons, was ruled by authoritarian methods, and the citizens were given no choice to make decisions on the future of their motherlands. Moreover, the two authoritarian regimes democratised in a similar manner during the 1980s. The process of democratisation took place through transplacement which was basically a pacted transaction between the authoritarian elite and the opposition. In addition, the authoritarian governments of the two countries also shared many similarities. In case of South Korea, the country was ruled by a military government. Poland, while being a Communist one-party state, during the 1980s was also governed by a government formed by military leaders (Przeworski, 1991). For this reason, not only the history and the overall political situation of the regimes corresponded to one another, but also the authoritarian governments resembled each other in many ways. Therefore, it should be beneficial and useful to compare the two countries in order to analyse and find out specific factors that contributed to the similarities of the processes of democratisation that occurred in the two states.

North Korea as a revisionist state : leaders' political psychology of nuclear provocations

조평세 Graduate School, Korea University 2018 국내박사

김정은의 북한은 강도높은 핵/미사일 도발로 또다시 전 세계의 헤드라인을 장식하는데 성공했다. 2012년 김정은의 정권 세습 이후 6년동안 북한은, 김정일 시기 2회 핵실험의 두 배인 4회를 감행했고, 미사일 도발은 김일성과 김정일 통치시대 전체의 도발보다 세 배 가까이 증폭했다. 그리고2018년 1월부터 김정은의 북한은 국가 핵무력 완성을 이제 성취했음을 공표하며 미국과 대한민국에 대한 전면적인 평화공세를 전개하고 있다. 문제는 이러한 대량살상무기 개발을 통해 김정은 정권은 미국의 선제공격 위협과 국제사회에서의 고립을 초래하는 등, 그 체제를 안전하게 하기보다 더 불안하게 만드는데도 불구하고 왜 지속적으로 핵무기를 개발하고 도발을 증가하는가이다. 본 논문은 이 의문을 풀기 위해 신고전적 현실주의(neoclassical realist) 접근을 채택하여 북한을 현상타파국가(revisionist state)로 이해한다. 북한의 지정학적 환경과 동북아시아에서의 힘의 분배가 핵개발 등 북한의 외교정책 행위를 설명하는데 결정적인 중요성을 가지고 있음을 인정함과 동시에, 본 논문은 북한 지도자의 심리와 국가정체성 인식 등을 매개설명변수로 설정하여 그들이 외부환경을 어떻게 인식하고 해석하여 핵 도발로 연결시키는지 더 깊이 탐구한다. 지금까지 북한에 대한 연구는 대부분 체제적(systemic) 접근방식, 혹은 국제적 분석수준(international level of analysis)에 치중되어 왔다. 이 때문에 북한의 외교정책행위를 분석하는데 있어 “현상유지 편견”(status-quo bias)에서 자유롭지 못했다. 이는 북한이 모든 여타 합리적 국가 행위자(rational state actor)와 같이 지정학적 위치와 상대적 힘의 분배에 단순히 반응하여 현상을 유지하려고만 한다는 제한된 진단과 이에 따른 불완전한 처방을 내리게 했다. 하지만 최근 발달된 지도자의 발언 컨텐츠를 분석하는 다양한 방법론과 도구들을 통해 북한의 외교정책결정과정에 대해 보다 깊고 새로운 연구들을 할 수 있는 가능성이 열렸다. 특히 지도자의 공개연설 등에서 “운영코드”(Operational Code)를 추출하는 verbs-in-context-systems (VICS) 방법을 통해 국가지도자의 외교정책결정의 성향적(dispositional) 변수들을 분석할 수 있게 되었다. 또한 쟈크 하이만스 (Jacques Hymans)의 “외부행위자 계수법”(external-actor counting method)은 국가지도자의 “국가정체성인식”(National Identity Conception, NIC)을 파악하여 핵무기 개발 경향의 정도를 분석하기도 한다. 현재까지 이런 유용한 연설 컨텐츠 분석도구들은 매우 소수의 논문에서만 북한 행태연구에 적용되었고, 특히 이 도구들을 이용한 북한의 3대 세습 지도자 김정은의 공개연설 분석과 핵 도발 증가 설명변수 분석은 아직까지 전무하다. 본 연구에서는 이 인지심리학적 컨텐츠 분석 방법들을 활용하여 북한의 김정은 시기 핵 도발 증가를 설명하고자 한다. 먼저 북한 핵개발의 지정학적 그리고 역사적 맥락을 검토하여 북한의 현상타파적 국가정체성을 파악하고 북한 대내외정책의 지도 이념이라고 할 수 있는 주체사상의 발전과정을 설명한다. 또한 이 주체사상이 어떻게 수령 개인숭배와 결합되어 더 공고화되었는지 그 배경을 설명한다. 이를 통해 북한의 핵무력 추구가 그 현상타파적 국가정체성과 통일혁명전략의 당연하고 타협 불가능한 결과일 뿐임을 설명한다. 그 다음, 이 설명을 뒷받침하기 위해 정치/인지심리학적 분석도구들을 이용하여 북한지도자의 “국가정체성인식”과 “운영코드”를 도출한다. 그 결과 본 연구는 김정은의 “적대적 민족주의”(oppositional nationalism)와 “현상타파적”(revisionist) 성향이 지난 두 지도자들보다 현저히 더 강해진 것을 밝히고 그의 집권 이후 핵 도발 증가를 설명한다. 이 연구결과의 정책적 함의는 다양하다. 먼저 기존 학계의 북한 핵개발 원인에 대한 이해, 즉 북한의 핵개발은 단순히 체제의 생존을 위한 것이라는 것과 북한의 지도자는 단순히 “합리적 행위자” 라는 보편적 견해에 이의를 제기한다. 이는 미국과 대한민국의 대북전략에 상당한 변화를 주문한다. 또한 학술적으로는 기존 국제정치 학계에서 만연한 “현상유지 편견”을 탈피하여 신고전현실주의 모델을 바탕으로 한 “행위자 특정”(actor-specific) 중심 외교정책연구의 가능성에 따른 추가 연구과제들을 제시한다. Kim Jong-un’s North Korea has successfully gotten the world on its nerves once again with its brazen nuclear provocations. Nuclear explosive tests since Kim Jong-un’s assumption of power in 2012 doubled that of his father Kim Jong-il, and his missile tests in his first six years have almost tripled that of the entire period of reign under his father and grandfather combined. Since January 2018, Kim Jong-un’s North Korea is embarking on a full-scale peace offensive toward the US and South Korea, proclaiming to have finally achieved the completion of its nuclear weaponization. The puzzle is why the North Korean leader would accelerate his development of the weapons of mass destruction when doing so would make his regime less secure, rather than more secure, by inviting a preemptive military attack and further sanctions and isolation from the international community. This research assumes a neo-classical realist approach to tackle this puzzle and in turn observe North Korea as a revisionist state. While acknowledging the determining importance of North Korea’s geopolitical environment and relative power distribution in Northeast Asia in explaining and predicting its foreign policy behavior, this research further explores the intervening variables of leader psychology and national identity perceptions to see how the external operating environment has been perceived and translated into nuclear provocations. Researches on the regime’s foreign policy making have suffered heavy tendencies to adopt a systematic approach, or an international level of analysis, that generate a “status-quo bias” when trying to understand and predict its behavior. In other words, taking for granted that North Korea behaves like all rational state actors do simply in response to geostrategic international position to preserve the status-quo, studies on its foreign policy behaviors have offered limited diagnoses and prescriptions. Despite the common obstacles of the lack of data in North Korea studies, however, recent advancements in analytical methodologies on state leader’s public speeches have opened fresh research possibilities on the inner workings of North Korea’s foreign policymaking. Most notably, verbs-in-context-systems (VICS) method to extrapolate the leaders’ “operational code” has been widely utilized to analyze state leaders’ dispositional factors in foreign policymaking. Also, Jacques Hymans’ method of “external-actor counting” has offered helpful quantitative content analyses of state leaders’ public statements to measure “national identity conceptions” that explain their proclivity to develop nuclear weapons. These analytical tools have been applied in only a handful of researches on North Korea, and there are none that analyzes the speeches of Kim Jong-un using these methodologies to explain the recent rise in nuclear provocations since his assumption of power. In this research, these cognitive-psychological methods of content analysis are utilized to explain North Korea’s nuclear provocations. Before employing these tools however, the research thoroughly examines the geopolitical and historical context of North Korea’s revisionist national identity to determine the operational environment where the regime is positioned and from which its juche nationalist outlook is developed and further reinforced by its suryong cult. From this, it is demonstrated that North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear-armed statehood is only a natural and non-negotiable manifestation of its national identity and revolutionary reunification strategy. To support this argument further, the cognitive-psychological methodologies are used to determine North Korean leaders’ “national identity conceptions” and “operational codes”. The analysis finds that North Korean leaders’ “oppositional nationalism” and “revisionism” have increased along the two successions of power, and that the current leader Kim Jong-un displays the highest revisionist orientations and proclivities to develop nuclear weapons for his juche unification revolution. The policy implications from this research are manifold. Conventional understanding on the North Korean regime that its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are for mere security and survival, and that its leader is merely a unitary rational actor, is challenged. In turn, several aspects of strategy and policy of the US and the Republic of Korea are called for change. This research also calls for a break from the “status-quo bias” in IR scholarship to suggest further research in “actor-specific” foreign policy analysis under the neoclassical realist framework.