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      • KCI등재

        PROMETHEE와 Entropy 기법을 이용한 돌발홍수 위험도 평가

        이정호,전환돈,박무종,정재학 한국방재학회 2011 한국방재학회논문집 Vol.11 No.3

        Previously most of flood prevention efforts have been made for relatively large watersheds near to channel flow. However, as economical development and the expansion of leisure areas to mountainous region, human casualty by flash flood occurs frequently, requiring additional prevention activity. Therefore, to reduce the damage of human lives and property by flash flood, we develop an assessment method for flash flood occurrence for mountainous areas considering various factors involving it. PROMETHEE(Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluations) which is one of the MCDM(Multi-Criteria Decision Making) was adopted to assess the contribution of each factor to the risk of the flash flood in the mountainous area. The main evaluation criteria are classified into three categories, namely, the regional and rainfall characteristics, and geographical features. Also, the Entropy method is used to determine the weight of each evaluation criteria without survey. The suggested method based on PROMETHEE with Entropy method is applied to BongHwa region to verify its applicability. After applied, the method successfully assesses the relative risk of flash flood occurrence of each sub region in the BongHwa region. Out of the seventeen sub-regions, five, seven and five of them are evaluated as high-risk, medium-risk, and low-risk, respectively. To verify the results, we searched the historical data of flash flood and the flash flood had occurred in one of high-risk sub-regions at 2008. 과거 홍수 방재에 관한 노력의 대부분은 대하천을 중심으로 이루어져 왔다. 그러나 경제의 발전과 더불어 레져 활동 영역이 산지유역으로 확대되면서 돌발홍수로 인한 인명사고의 발생이 빈번해졌고 이로인한 추가적인 방재 활동이 요구되고 있다. 그러므로 돌발홍수로 인한 인명 및 재산의 피해를 감소시키기 위하여 본 연구에서는 다양한 지표들을 고려하여 산지유역에서의 돌발홍수 발생 위험도를 평가하기 위한 새로운 기법을 개발하였다. 고려된 다양한 지표들의 돌발홍수 발생에 대한 기여도를 평가하기 위하여 본 연구에서는 다기준의사결정 기법의 하나인 프로메티(Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluations, PROMETHEE)를 이용하였으며, 평가 지표들로는 지역특성, 강우특성 및 지형특성 등이 선정되었다. 또한 이상의 평가지표들에 대한 상대적 가중치 산정을 위하여 엔트로피(Entropy) 기법이 이용되었다. 엔트로피 기법과 프로메티를 이용한 돌발홍수 위험도 평가기법은 그 적용성을 검증하기 위하여 봉화군 유역에 적용되었으며, 적용 결과 봉화군 유역 내 17개 소유역에 대하여 그 상대적 위험도가 평가되었다. 또한 17개 소유역은 그 결과에 따라 각각 5개, 7개, 5개의 고·중·저 위험군으로 분류되었다. 또한 적용결과의 추가적인 검증을 위하여 과거 돌발홍수 피해 사례를 조사한 결과 고위험군으로 평가된 지역들 중 한 곳에서 2008년 돌발홍수가 발생했었음을 확인하였다.

      • KCI등재

        효율적인 하수관거 개량을 위한 의사결정모형의 개발

        이정호,전환돈,주진걸,김중훈 한국수자원학회 2008 한국수자원학회논문집 Vol.41 No.2

        하수관거 개량사업의 주된 목적은 Inflow/Infiltration (I/I)를 제거 및 통수능력 확보이다. 최근 노후 하수관거의 개 보수 및 신설 사업이 활발히 이루어지고 있으나 현재의 사업들은 관거 데이터의 부족, 유량 및 수질 자료의 장기적인 측정 미비 등으로 인하여 효율적인 사업을 진행시키기에 무리가 있다. 본 연구에서는 하수관거 개량사업을 보다 효율적으로 진행시키기 위하여 Rehabilitation Weighting Model (RWM)과 Re The objective of sewer rehabilitation is to improve its function while eliminating inflow/infiltration (I/I) and insufficient carrying capacity (ICC). Such rehabilitation efforts, however, have not been particularly successful due to a lack of sewer data

      • 外部報告를 위한 直接原價計算의 問題點

        李正浩 서울大學校商科大學 韓國經濟硏究所 1966 經濟論集 Vol.5 No.1

        Introduction Not less than a century has passed since the systematic study of cost accounting had begun. It is generally conceded that accounting originated with the rise of the factory system in the Industrial Revolution in England. Around the turn of the century, most product costs came to include factory overhead to product as well as prime costs. In this early efforts to charge factory overhead to product, historical costs were generally used, based on actual materials and labor as well as actual overhead costs. However this method of costing couldn't meet the increasing problems of cost estimating and compatible pricing Accordingly predetermined overhead rates had finally gained acceptance by 1910. Next development in costing was standard costing which emerged during 1920's. Standard costing devices started from the critical stand of past retrospective post-mortem cost accounting. According to the development of increasing complexity of modern industrial system, cyclic and seasonal business field really needed the predetermined cost accounting. During 1930 to 1950, in accordance with the development of managerial uses of costing, cost accounting came to devote to business as management tools i.e., budgeting, break-even analysis, ratio analysis, profit planning and distribution cost analysis. Looking back to the development of cost accounting, it seems to be a natural step in the evolution of overhead costing. Again early in 1950's direct costing emerged as a new approach to overhead costing. The fundamental ideas of direct costing were first publicized in 1936 by Jonathan H.Harris in an article titled "What Did We Earn Last Month?" Under this method fixed factory overhed is not assigned to product. Direct costing differs from conventional costing, sometimes called absorption costing, because fixed factory overhead is treated as a period (charged against revenue immediately) rather than as a product cost (assigned to units produced). Direct Costing versus Absorption Costing The difference between direct costing ("variable costing" is more appropriate) and traditional absorption costing lies in the elements of varaiable overhead cost that are to be included in the cost of goods sold, and in the final inventories. So the direct costing should be defined as a segregation of manufacturing costs between those which are fixed and those which vary directly with volume. The costs of the product are composed of only variable costs and fixed portion of the costs are directly charged against to the revenue of current period. According to this principle of direct costing, this method of costing is different from abosorption costing in three points; 1. Classification of costs, 2. Order of charging costs to revenues, and 3. Valuing the inventories. The motivation of direct costing stems from the ever incresing mechanization in American industry. With the increase of the scale of business, overhead becomes ever larger element of cost since a substantial portion of this elements largely non-variable in nature, seasonal and cyclic variations in production and sales tend to build up in the inventory, thus reducing the amount of the current period's costs until such time as the inventory is sold. During this period of heavy production, conventional absorption costing may show profits to be high, even though sales are low. During the reverse cycle, the opposite will usually be true. As mentioned above, under direct costing, inventories are to be valued at direct or variable costs, while fixed cost would be charged directly to expense in the current period. The basic difference in profit and loss statement between absorption and direct costing is that, in case of absorption costing fixed costs are included in inventory, and direct costing, which includes only direct or variable costs. Undoubtedly this method of direct costing is generally conceived as an accepted technique of internal reporting to management, especially for the pricing policy. However in the areas of external reports to stockholders, creditors, and other outside interest parties, the controversy is in full bloom. Nowdays the main controversy point is centered to the external reportings only. Direct Costing Controversy Advocates of direct costing maintain the fixed portion of factory as period costs. Opponents maintain that inventories should carry a fixed cost component because both variable and fixed costs are necessary to produce goods; both these costs should be inventoriable regardless of the differences in their behavior patterns. Early arguments of direct costing are focussed on the problems of its managerial utility as well as that of its usefulness for external reporting. However the advocates as well as opponents failed to attack the basic premises underlying the direct and absorption costing techniques. Recently these basic premises have been exposed and subjected to careful scrutiny. One of the most serious arguments over the direct costing can be seen between Horngren and Sorter's advocation of direct costing and Fess and Ferrara's opposition to it. Cost obviate notion proposed by R.P.Marple was developed further in the series of articles by C.T.Horngren and G.H.Sorter. Especially "Direct Costing for External Reporting" published in 1961 was proposed in an attempt to clear up the possibility of some misinterpretation of basic thoughts and ideas underlying accounting principles. It seems that the basic assumption underlying the Horngren and Sorter thesis is that income is earned at the point of sale, and from which their basic assumption flows the concept of asset which is the central feature of the thesis. According to their thesis an asset represents costs with service potential and service potential is the costs ability to have a favorable effect on expected future costs or revenues. In other words, "a cost has service potential, in the traditional accounting sense, if its incurrence now will result in future cost avoidance in the ordinary course of business." The ultimate conclusion of the argument is that, generally speaking, the fixed costs of production are costs without service potential since their incurrence in one period has no effect on whether they will be incurred in the future. Variable production costs on the other hand have service potential since their incurrence today will overcome the need for their incurrence in the future. The essence of argument seems to be contained in the idea that the only costs which will be reduced in the future because they are incurred today are variable costs since the fixed costs will remain the same with or without the production of goods which are included in the inventory. In other words, the value of the inventory is determined only by the extra costs occasioned by producing the inventory. Furthermore, these costs occasioned by the production of inventory are costs which will not have to be incurred in the future since the production of inventory reduces the future need for production and hence the future incurrence of variable production costs. As the alternative to the Horngren and Sorter thesis, Fess and Ferrara state that income is earned (value is added) at each and every stage in the total process of production and distribution, and that the value of an inventory is its net realizable value. Net realizable value represents the utilities acquired through production, sale, and delivery. With this alternative, one considers the costs of producing the net realizable value as used-up service potential; that is, these costs (fixed, variable or otherwise) have no service potential left to them since they have been used up in the production of revenues. The asset inventory has service potential but not in the sense of cost avoidability. The service potential inherent in the inventory valued at net realizable value is that inventory's ability to be converted into cash which can be used again in the acquisition of those resourse necessary for the production of income. If we accept this idea, it is very difficult to make this "value added" concept of income measurement, in most instances and for this reason, it seems appropriate to delay the recognition of earned income until it is more objectively deternimable at the point of sale. Here they emphasized that the point of sale is not regarded as the point at which income is earned, it is regarded as the point at which income already earned is recognized as earned. This distinction is fundamental to the understanding of the difference between Horngren-Sorter thesis and Fess-Ferrara thesis. The Fess-Ferrara thesis recognizes the point of sale as important but only in terms of being able to ascertain more objectively the amount of income which has been earned step by step through the total process of production and distribution. The conclusion of the Fess-Ferrara thesis is that if the recognition of previsouly earned income is delayed, all costs used up or associated with that income must be delayed. They assert that there is no alternative to such a conclusion if one is truly interested in the calculation of income even though the recognition of that income is delayed in the hope of making it more objectively determinable. As already be seen, the costs to be delayed include all costs used up in producing the delayed income whether they are fixed or variable. Furthermore, even though these delayed costs are considered inventory and thus an asset, they have not service potential, for their service potential has already been used up in the production of income, the recognition of which has been delayed. Fundamental Problem of Direct Costing According to the financial statements approach, summarizing the above two theses and other prevailing arguments over direct costing, one can see that the fundamental point of argument is focussed around the categories of income measurement and assets measurement as well. In the income measurement, probably one of the most fundamental point of controversies between direct and full costing is the question of whether fixed manufacuring costs are costs of product produced or of the period in which they are incurred. Traditionally accounting reports have treated them substantially as product costs, direct costing would treat them wholly as period costs. So the period cost concept and product cost concept play an important role in the measurement of income. The period cost concept, in its essence, states that there are certain costs which, by their nature, expire with the passage of time, regardless of production activity. They are incurred for the benefit of operations during a given period of time. The benefit is unchanged by the actual level of operations, if any, during that period, and it expires at the end of the period in any event. The product cost concept states that all manufacturing costs are cost of the product and that there is no such thing as a manufacturing costs the period. According to this concept, logically, all so called fixed production cost should be amortized by a unit-of output method, which would make them variable costs. Time period amortization is acceptable only as a practical convenience, the need for which derives from uncertainty as to future operations. Express another way, a value added approach to revenue recognition accept the deferral of revenue recognition to the point of sale on the grounds that measurement is more objective at that point. Another important core of the direct costing is assets measurement. As to what constiutes the value of an inventory, the concept of an asset plays an important role in the controversy over direct costing. Nowadays assets are expounded "aggregates of service-potentials available for or beneficial to expected operation" or "expected future economic benefit." Then what is the nature of service potential or future benefit? There are generally two kinds of approaches to the nature of service potential or future benefit, the one is cost obviation concept of service potential and the other is that of revenue production concept. According to the cost obviation concept, assets have service potential to the extent that they avery the necessity for incurring costs in the future. In other words, assets are the costs that will be obviated in the future as a result of cost incurrance in the past. However, the past incurrence of fixed production costs does not avoid the reincurred of the same costs in the future. Accordingly, inventories should be included only variable costs. In case of revenue production concept of service potential, the service potential of an asset means that its capacity to contribute to the production of revenue in the future. This revenue production approach distinguishes between unexpired and expired costs respectively, according to whether their incurrence will or will not contribute to the realization of revenue in the future. Under this theory, any costs essential to the production of a product that may reasonably be expected to be sold and, thus, generate revenue is a cost of obtaining such revenue and should be deferred in inventory so that it may be matched with the revenue in the determination of income for the period of sale. Conclusion Recently direct costing has been generally conceded to be useful in reports to management. However whether it is useful to stockholders, creditors, and other outside interest parties is not concluded yet. Accordingly the argument of direct costing is focussed in the area of external reports only. Historically and practically, financial reports are evolved from the practical usefulness. Therefore the standards of financial reporting should be designed to further this objective of usefulness. When the utility of direct costing is conceded as external reports, the time of general usage of direct costing as external reports will come. But as for now it is hard and no time to anticipate.

      • KCI등재

        Interest Groups, County Characteristics, and Local Growth Management Policy Instruments

        이정호 서울대학교행정대학원 2015 Journal of Policy Studies Vol.30 No.3

        The primary intent of this study is to investigate what factors drive local governments to implement growth management policy instruments. To answer this research question, this study chose Colorado counties, where local governments voluntarily adopt and implement growth management policy instruments. That means that a wide variation in growth management policy instrument implementation appears among Colorado’s local governments. That is to say, some counties more actively implement growth management policy instruments while the rest of counties do not. Utilizing a statistical tool, this article tests seven hypotheses based on the interest group model and county characteristics to empirically explicate this uneven implementation phenomenon of growth management policy instruments across Colorado. The analyzed results prove that counties with many anti-growth management policy interest groups are less likely to implement growth management policy instruments. In addition, the analyzed results demonstrate both that counties earning more income from tourism and counties with highly educated residents are more likely to implement growth management policy instruments, while counties supporting the Democratic Party are less likely to implement growth management policy instruments.

      • 구조용강 인장시험편 내의 크랙 성장에 대한 시뮬레이션 해석 및 검증

        이정호,조재웅 한국기계기술학회 2015 한국기계기술학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2015 No.03

        본 연구에서는 구조용강 시험편 내의 크랙의 성장특성을 주제로 하여 중앙크랙만이 존재하는 시험편 과 중앙 크랙의 주변에 대칭으로 구멍들이 존재하는 시험편에 대한 파괴역학적 거동을 규명하고자 하였 다. 구조용강으로 만들어진 시험편 내에 두 가지의 조건들을 적용하여 인장실험을 수행하였으며, 이를 통 하여 시험편의 응력, Strain energy와 변형량에 대하여 해석하였다. 그리고 이러한 실험값들을 바탕으로 하여 응력확대계수를 구하였으며, 구해진 실험값들의 검증을 위하여 ANSYS 유한요소 해석 프로그램을 사용하여 시뮬레이션 해석을 수행하였다.

      • KCI등재

        내배수시스템 실시간 운영 모형을 이용한 배수펌프장 운영기법 개발

        이정호,이양재,김중훈,전환돈 한국수자원학회 2007 한국수자원학회논문집 Vol.40 No.11

        일반적인 도시 내배수시스템은 시설물과 운영방법으로 구분된다. 시설물은 관거, 수문, 배수펌프장 등으로 구성되며 운영방법은 펌프 및 수문운영으로 구성된다. 이러한 내배수시스템에서 유역의 유출 및 펌프 운영을 실시간으로 모의하고 배수효과를 고려할 수 있는 운영 모형은 펌프를 효과적으로 운영하기 위하여 필요하며, 이러한 실시간 운영 모형을 통하여 도시유역의 침수 위험을 감소시키기 위한 효율적인 펌프 운영 기법의 개발이 가능하다. 본 연구에서는 SWMM 5.0 An urban drainage system consists of two major systems : flood drainage facilities and operating practices. The facilities are composed of sewer networks, gates, and pumping stations and the operating practice consists of pump or gate operation. Then, a r

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