인구이동이 인구재분포에 미치는 영향력의 시공간적 역동성 탐색: 우리나라 국내 인구이동에의 적용

이상일,이소영 한국지도학회 2023 한국지도학회지 Vol.23 No.1

The main purpose of this paper is to solidify the methodological foundation for analyzing the impact of migration on population redistribution and to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of migration unidirectionality or imbalance by applying it to Korean internal migration data. In terms of methodology, migration effectiveness index (MEI) was judged to be a more appropriate measure compared to net migration rate (NMR). It was evaluated that MEI is a more conceptually correct measure compared to NMR, is relatively free from the ‘small population problem’, and is relatively advantageous in grasping the current spatiotemporal dynamics of population movement. In addition, MEI has superior scale scalability compared to NMR, which is found to be much more advantageous in establishing a research framework considering multiple scales. An analysis framework based on MEI was applied to data from the last 25 years (1998-2022) in Korea and analyzed. The results of the study are summarized as follows. First, as a result of the global scale analysis, the global MEI value has tended to fluctuate within about 5-10% over the past 25 years, showing a specific time series pattern. Second, the regional scale analysis has proven that MEI is a more appropriate tool for identifying the dynamics of current migration compared to NMR. Third, the region-specific scale analysis revealed a very unique pattern of population exchange by special and metropolitan cities, and proved that MEI is superior to NMR in termsof scale scalability. Fourth, as a result of the inter-regional scale analysis, some flows with marked unidirectionality were identified. The research framework presented in this study can be extended in various directions, including group disaggregated research, application of multivariate techniques, and research on smaller spatial units. 본 논문의 주된 연구목적은 인구이동이 인구재분포에 미치는 영향력을 분석하기 위한 방법론적 토대를 공고히 하고, 그것을 바탕으로 우리나라 인구이동의 편향성 혹은 불균형성의 시공간적 역동성을 탐색하는 것이다. 방법론적인 측면에서, 인구이동 유효도 지수(MEI)가 순이동률(NMR)에 비해 보다 적절한 측도인 것으로 판단되었다. MEI는 NMR에 비해 측도로서의 타당도가 높으며, ‘소인구문제’로부터 상대적으로 자유롭고, 인구이동의 현재적 역동성을 파악하는데 상대적으로 유리한 것으로 평가되었다. 덧붙여 MEI는 NMR에 비해 스케일 확장성이 월등해 다중 스케일을 고려한 연구 프레임워크의 수립에 훨씬 유리한 것으로 판단되었다. MEI에 기반한 분석 프레임워크를 우리나라의 최근 25년간(1998~2022년)의 데이터에 적용하여 분석하였다. 연구 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 전역 스케일의 분석 결과, 지난 25년간 전역적 MEI 값이 대략 5~10% 안에서 변동하는 경향을 보였으며, 특정한 시계열적 패턴을 보여주었다. 둘째, 지역별 스케일 분석의 결과, MEI가 NMR에 비해 인구이동의 역동성을 파악하는데 더 적절한 도구라는 사실이 입증되었다. 셋째, 지역-특수적 스케일 분석의 결과, 특별・광역시별로 매우 독특한 인구 교환 양상의 패턴이 드러났으며, 스케일 확장성이라는 측면에서 MEI는 NMR에 비해 월등하다는 사실이 입증되었다. 넷째, 지역간 스케일의 분석 결과, 인구이동 편향성이 두드러진 플로들이 확인되었다. 본 연구에서 제시된 연구 프레임워크는 다양한 방향으로 확장될 수 있는데, 집단 개별화 연구, 다변량 기법의 적용, 보다 작은 공간단위의 연구 등이다.

Comparison of Fiscal and Distributional Effects of VAT Exemptions in Korea and Japan

( Myung Jae Sung ) 서울대학교 행정대학원 2018 Journal of Policy Studies Vol.33 No.2

This paper estimates and compares fiscal and distributional effects of Korean and Japanese VAT exemptions. VAT exemptions have two types of fiscal effects on revenue: they lead to reductions in VAT revenue via the output tax and revenue increases via the undeducted input tax through cascading effects. The results of input-output analyses for both countries indicate that the former effect outweighs the latter, reducing VAT revenue but that the exemptions mitigate the distributional regressivity of its incidence. In Korea in particular, the expansion of an aged population means there are more individuals affected by VAT regressivity, as most members of this population belong to low-income deciles, mainly because they are retirees. As is suggested by the life-cycle hypothesis, older populations are likely to have higher propensity to consume than younger ones. In Japan, the VAT was supposed to increase from 8% to 10% in October 2016, having already increased from 5% to 8% in April 2014. The additional increase was expected to exacerbate the negative impact of the VAT on income redistribution. For this reason, it has been repeatedly postponed, and now is not expected to take effect until October 2019. The growing socioeconomic resistance of the Japanese people to the VAT increase may require additional VAT reforms in Japan. It might, for example, need to increase tax revenue to cope with its growing national debt to GDP ratio as well as with its increasing welfare expenditure. The VAT is one of its key potential revenue sources. In addition, it might also need to broaden the scope of VAT exemptions to include more necessities at the expense of a little revenue so as to ease the potential increase in VAT regressivity expected to ensue from the October 2019 rate increase.

Comparison of Fiscal and Distributional Effects of VAT Exemptions in Korea and Japan

성명재 서울대학교행정대학원 2018 The Korean Journal of Policy Studies Vol.33 No.2

This paper estimates and compares fiscal and distributional effects of Korean and Japanese VAT exemptions. VAT exemptions have two types of fiscal effects on revenue: they lead to reductions in VAT revenue via the output tax and revenue increases via the undeducted input tax through cascading effects. The results of input-output analyses for both countries indicate that the former effect outweighs the latter, reducing VAT revenue but that the exemptions mitigate the distributional regressivity of its incidence. In Korea in particular, the expansion of an aged population means there are more individuals affected by VAT regressivity, as most members of this population belong to low-income deciles, mainly because they are retirees. As is suggested by the life-cycle hypothesis, older populations are likely to have higher propensity to consume than younger ones. In Japan, the VAT was supposed to increase from 8% to 10% in October 2016, having already increased from 5% to 8% in April 2014. The additional increase was expected to exacerbate the negative impact of the VAT on income redistribution. For this reason, it has been repeatedly postponed, and now is not expected to take effect until October 2019. The growing socioeconomic resistance of the Japanese people to the VAT increase may require additional VAT reforms in Japan. It might, for example, need to increase tax revenue to cope with its growing national debt to GDP ratio as well as with its increasing welfare expenditure. The VAT is one of its key potential revenue sources. In addition, it might also need to broaden the scope of VAT exemptions to include more necessities at the expense of a little revenue so as to ease the potential increase in VAT regressivity expected to ensue from the October 2019 rate increase.

공적연금제도 재정방식 비교 분석: 경제성장과 소득재분배 논의를 중심으로

고민창 ( Min-chang Ko ) 한국질서경제학회 2009 질서경제저널 Vol.12 No.1

20)ㅃ This study examines the economic nature of two financing systems of pensions, i.e., the pay-as-you-go system and the funded system. Both systems are simply financial mechanisms for organizing claims on the future output. The pay-as-you-go system, however, is based on an implicit pact between generations while the funded system on accumulations of financial assets. This paper critically reviews the current opinion that the funded system is the only sustainable financing system of pensions in the face of ageing population. In relation to pension systems the consumption of future output, not the finance, lies at the centre of debate. In this respect population ageing does influence both systems negatively. Therefore, the funded system is not superior to the pay-as-you-go system in the face of ageing population. This study also analyzes economic influences of each system from the perspective of economic growth and income redistribution. Almost all neoclassical economists insist that the funded system contributes to the increase of national saving which, in turn, causes investment and economic growth. However, this study reveals that the accumulation of pension funds could not lead to the increase of national saving inevitably. In addition, the increase of national saving might bring about a lower level of output due to the decrease of effective demand. Therefore, there is no inevitable reason that the funded system is superior to the pay-as-you-go system in terms of economic growth. Besides, the pay-as-you-go system contributes to economic equity through income redistribution. As a result of these considerations, this paper concludes that the pay-as-you-go system would be more suitable than the funded system in the situation of economic depression. This study also suggests that the public debate on the reform of National Pension Service in Korea has to consider restructuring the current financing system.

인구쟁점에 대한 가치관의 변화

박상태(Sang-Tae Park) 한국인구학회 1999 한국인구학 Vol.22 No.2

이 논문의 목적은 우리 나라에서 인구증가나 인구억제 등 인구에 관한 국민들의 가치관의 변화를 살펴보기 위한 것이다. 여기서 말하는 가치란 특정한 사회구조의 산물이며 동시에 그 사회를 구성하는 개인들의 행위의 동기가 되며 행위의 지침이 되는 모든 태도와 관심을 말한다. 우리 나라는 1960년대 초부터 정부가 주도하여 실시한 가족계획 사업을 국민들이 적극적으로 받아 들여 출산율의 억제에 성공한 대표적인 나라로 손꼽힌다. 이에 따라 우리 나라에서는 많은 조사 특히 인구억제를 위한 피임 및 자녀수에 대한 조사연구를 실시했다. 이들 조사는 대부분 질문표를 이용한 조사였기에 실제 상황에 접하지 않고 가상적인 상황을 설정하여 그에 대한 반응을 알아 낸 자료이기에 실제상황에 봉착했을 때 꼭 그와 같이 행동하리라는 보장은 없다. 위와 같은 단점을 고려하여 주요 신문의 사설을 국민감정과 가치를 대변하는 가장 적합한 자료로 이용했다. 우리 나라에서 지난 수십년 간 가장 큰 영향을 미친 대중매체는 신문이었으며 또한 오늘날까지 계속 발간되고 있는 신문으로서 동아일보와 조선일보를 손꼽을 수 있다. 1955년부터 1996년 말까지 두 신문이 발간한 사설의 수는 30,000여 편을 넘는다. 인구에 간접적으로 관련되는 사설의 수는 수백 수천편에 달하겠으나 직접적으로 관련된 사설은 130편으로 집계되었다. 이 자료를 인구증가, 산아제한 및 가족계획, 법 및 정책, 인구 재분배, 수도권 인구 억제, 인구와 사회문제, 노동력과 취업, 및 인구자료-센서스 등 8가지 범주로 구분했다. 이들 각각에 대한 관점을 5년간 간격으로 제시하고 마지막으로 역년(曆年) 5년 간격으로 그 주요 쟁점의 변화를 요약했다. This paper is an attempt to explore changes in values on such population issues as population increase and population control in Korea. Value here refers to attitudes and interests engendered by a particular social structure which in turn motivate and direct the activities of the individuals who form a society. Korea has been widely known for her most successful programs in population control through effective family planning programs initiated by the government since early 1960s together with the married couples highly motivated toward the practice of birth control. In due course of the development. there were many surveys on attitude toward birth control. so-called KAP surveys. Data from such surveys have been secured by the questionnaire. However. the verbal reaction to an entirely symbolic situation may indicate what the respondents would do when confronted with the real situation. but there is no assurance that it will. Considering the limitations mentioned above. editorials of major newspapers in Korea were thought to be the best resource materials for such research purposes. In Korea. newspaper had been the most influential one among various mass media during last several decades. Chosun Ilbo and Dong-A Ilbo were selected as the representative newspapers in Korea for various reasons. More than 30,000 editorials were published by the two newspapers during the period from 1955 to 1996. Although there were several hundreds of editorials indirectly related to the population issues. only 130 were identified as those directly related to the issues. The editorials are classified by eight major categories. viz., population increase. birth control and family planning, laws and policies, population redistribution, control of the population of Seoul Metropolitan Area, population and social problems, labor force and employment. and population census. The trends and patterns of the changes in the major population issues are presented by five-calendar-year period.

지방정부의 정책지향과 인구이동의 관계에 관한 연구: 지방정부 재분배정책 가능성의 탐색

이연경 한국행정학회 2018 韓國行政學報 Vol.52 No.2

This study pays attention to the coexisting phenomenon of two contrasting views: that local governments today stress their welfare and redistribution functions while having a perspective that the redistribution policy of local governments is structurally limited. Therefore, this study empirically analyzes the relationship between the policy orientation of a local government and population movement with a focus on Peterson’s “City Limit,” attempting to confirm the possibilities of a local government’s redistribution policy. Unlike Peterson’s theory on the “city limits,” the analysis showed that following the implementation of a local government’s redistribution policy there was no inflow of population with demand for welfare or outflow of population with production capacity. Therefore, as a conclusion, this study contradicts the viewpoint that local governments’ redistribution policy is structurally limited. In addition, this paper confirms a couple of points, which are the main implications of this study. First is that allocation policy, which improves the quality of life of the general local population, has a population influx effect. Second is that the relationship between government policy and population movement as well as demand for policy may differ, as the meaning and the value of a “place” differ between metropolitan areas and non-metropolitan areas. 본 연구는 오늘날 지방정부의 복지, 재분배기능을 강조하는 한편, 지방정부의 재분배정책이 구조적으로 어렵 다는 시각이 공존하는 현상에 주목하였다. 이에 지방정부의 정책지향과 인구이동의 관계를 Peterson의 도시 한계론을 중심으로 실증 분석하여, 지방정부 재분배정책의 가능성을 확인하고자 하였다. 분석 결과, Peterson의 도시한계론의 논리와 달리, 지방정부의 재분배정책에 따른 복지수요인구의 유입 및 생산능력인 구의 유출 현상은 나타나지 않았다. 따라서 지방정부의 재분배정책이 구조적으로 한계를 갖는다고 보기 어렵 다는 결론이다. 또한 지역 주민 일반의 삶의 질을 개선시키는 할당정책이 인구유입 효과를 갖는 점, 수도권과 비수도권에서 ‘장소’의 의미와 가치가 달라, 정책과 인구이동의 관계 및 정책 수요가 다를 수 있음을 확인한 점이 연구의 주요 의의라 하겠다.

인구구조 변화가 수혜-부담 체계에 미치는 영향

유혜미 한국경제학회 2024 經濟學硏究 Vol.72 No.2

본 연구는 2007년 이후 한국의 인구구조 변화가 수혜-부담 체계에 미친 영향을분석하였다. 본 연구는 한국의 수혜-부담 체계를 간단한 순조세함수로 나타내고, 가구주 연령구조의 변화를 통제할 경우 이 순조세함수의 누진도가 어떻게 변화하는지 재정패널 자료를 이용하여 추정하였다. 추정 결과 2007년부터 2019년까지순조세함수의 누진도 총 증가분의 약 30%는 가구주 연령구조의 변화에 기인한것으로 나타났다. 이렇게 가구주 연령구조의 변화가 순조세함수의 누진도를 증가시키는 효과는 주로 복지수혜의 누진도 증가를 통해 나타나는 것으로 확인되었다. 또한 동 기간 중 가구주 연령구조의 변화는 수혜-부담 체계의 소득재분배 효과 증가분의 약 40%를 설명하였다. This paper examines the effect of population ageing on Korean tax-benefit structure. This paper estimates a simple net tax function using National Survey of Tax and Benefit (NaSTaB), controlling for changes in the household head’s age structure. We find that the progressivity of the net tax function more than doubled between 2007 and 2019, while about 30% of the change accounted for by population ageing. The effect of population ageing on the progressivity is mainly through government transfers. We also find that population ageing explains about 40% of the rise in the estimated income redistribution effect of Korean tax-benefit structure.

부산 대도시권의 공간재편 과정의 이해와 특성 분석

하창현(Ha, Chang-hyoun),김기홍(Kim, Ki-hong),남진(Nam, Jin) 한국주거환경학회 2015 주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집) Vol.13 No.1

This study aims to analyzed the change of the population size, industry, intra-urban migration in Busan metropolitan area between 2000 and 2010. This study has focused on the spatial redistribution process and pattern for the urban management and policy. The major findings of the study are as follows. First, the ratio of population of the urban city centre to the sub-urban has continuously decreased, especially those Jeonggwan-myun, Mulgeum-eup, Jangyu-myun of new town area greatly increased. Second, the ratio of industry annual average is 5% increase, and the ratio of the manufacturing industry and consumer service is never changed. As well consumer service and consumer service are area-based service industry increased 6% annual average. It is shown a particular population distribution tends to decrease in a particular deindustrialization on obstruction factor where affects in urban growth. Third, population migration trend for different spatial distribution corresponds to regional characteristics differently. Since 2010, the ratio of population migration increased and especially, such an increasing phenomenon is more prominent in sub-urban and rural areas than urban areas. Finally, Netminer 3.0 analysis the change of the centrism trend for different spatial redistribution corresponds to regional characteristics differently. So, this study concludes with some policy implications a need of further study.

인구 분산에 따른 온실가스 감축 효과 분석

김승규 한국농촌경제연구원 2014 농촌경제 Vol.37 No.2

Greenhouse gas emissions by human beings are known as one of the critical factors that changes the Earth`s climate. Since the amount of gas emissions is essentially affected by the human economic behaviors, such as farming, operating factories, heating, and commuting for work, the emissions could be changed by the population change in a particular area. Due to the Korea`s economic development through the intensive economic agglomeration, the population densities in several major cities were very high as a result. However, we are recently observing the population migration from major big cities to relatively smaller cities including rural areas (i.e., population decentralization). Thus, this paper tried to capture how this population redistribution will affect the greenhouse gas emissions in Korea. This analysis was conducted using geographically weighted regression in order to accommodate the spatial non-stationarity of the data and to see the spatially heterogeneous effect of the population change on the greenhouse gas emission. According to the regression results, the population redistribution will play a role in decreasing the greenhouse gas emission in the entire Korea, while some other factors have varying effects.

국민건강보험의 소득재분배 효과 추정에 관한 연구

성명재(Myung Jae Sung) 한국재정학회(구 한국재정·공공경제학회) 2017 재정학연구 Vol.10 No.2

This paper estimates redistributive effects of National Health Insurance System in Korea. According to the simulation results from analyzing the raw data set of Household Income and Expenditure Survey released by Statistics Korea, the household burden of National Health Insurance fees has a tiny positive income redistributive effect and its benefits have a huge positive redistributive effect. It is quite interesting that the insurance fees have a positive redistributive effect, although it has a single-rate structure which is proportional to market income with upper and lower bounds particularly for the employed. Thus, it is inevitably regressive in market income. However, its effect is slightly positive mainly because households in lower income deciles such as in the first and second deciles, for example, have increasingly large proportions of transfer income which constitutes gross income increasingly more particularly for lower income deciles and, however, is excluded from the insurance fee base. The benefits of National Health Insurance are mostly delivered to the elderly generations: most of them are likely to belong to low income deciles, particularly to the first and second deciles, mostly because of retirement and low and immature coverage of National Pension benefits. This seems to cause a huge positive income redistributive effect, which certainly outweighs that of personal income tax in Korea. 본 연구는 국민건강보험제도의 보험료 부담과 급여 수혜의 귀착 및 소득재분배 효과를 분석하였다. 가계동향조사자료를 이용하여 모의실험을 통해 추정해본 결과, 건강보험료는 미소하게 정(+)의 소득재분배 효과를 나타내며, 건강보험급여는 소득재분배 효과가 큰 것으로 추정되었다. 현행 건강보험료 부과체계는 제도적으로 부과대상 (과세)소득 대비 미약하게 역진적인 부담구조를 가지고 있지만, 저소득층의 경우 보험료 부과대상에 포함되지 않는 이전소득의 비중 등이 높기 때문에 건강보험료는 정(+)의 소득재분배 효과를 나타내는 것으로 추정된다. 건강보험급여는 노인들의 수급비중과 평균급여액이 모두 현저하게 높은 특징을 지닌다. 생애주기상 노인가구는 은퇴가구가 주류를 이루는 만큼 대부분 최저소득층에 귀속된다. 이 두 가지 요인이 결합되어 건강보험급여는 소득세와의 격차가 빠르게 줄어들 정도로 소득재분배 효과가 빠르게 증가하고 있다. 인구고령화가 진전될수록 건강보험료․급여의 소득재분배 효과도 조금씩 확대되는 것으로 분석되었다.