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Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Balanced-budget Reforms of Korea’s National Pension System
이경우 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2018 Global economic review Vol.47 No.4
This paper evaluates the fiscal sustainability of the benchmark pension system in Korea, which will come into effect in 2028 following the 2007 pension reforms, and the welfare effects of pension reforms aimed at a balanced budget over the life cycle. To this end, we measure the lifetime pension deficit, i.e. the difference between total pension benefits and total pension contributions in an individual’s lifetime. We find that the benchmark pension system is expected to run an average lifetime deficit of 22.36 million won (approximately $22,360), and the current pension fund is unlikely to finance the sum of future deficits. The optimal pension reform for the zero average lifetime deficit reduces social welfare by as much as a 2.06% fall in consumption and is characterised with the contribution rate of 20.3% and an average replacement rate of 66.4%. These values are much higher than the respective benchmark values, 9% and 40%, because the increase in pension benefits, combined with the increase in pension contributions, can reduce the income inequality due to the progressivity of pension benefits and the proportionality of pension contributions.
Optimal Partial and Full Disability Insurance with an Application to Korea
이경우 한국경제학회 2019 The Korean Economic Review Vol.35 No.1
In this paper, I investigate the optimal disability insurance (DI) when partial and full disability are privately observed over the life cycle. I demonstrate that in the social optimum, partially disabled agents are induced to supply labor despite substantial government transfers unless labor supply is relatively elastic and their productivity is significantly reduced. I then apply the framework to quantitatively evaluate Korea’s DI programs, which include partial and full disability benefits. In the calibrated model, I find that welfare gains from replacing Korea’s DI programs with the corresponding optimal system amount to a 1.17% increase in consumption. Such a reform significantly raises the utility of both types of disabled agents at relatively small utility costs of able agents. Equity gains from this redistribution account for 73.4% of the total welfare gains, whereas efficiency gains from the optimal allocation account for 26.6%.