21세기 식품 비젼과 전망

박연우(朴淵友) 한국유통학회 2008 한국유통학회 학술대회 발표논문집 Vol.- No.-

맹자(孟子)의 개혁적 정치성향과 제 선왕(齊 宣王)의 양심(良心) 구명(究明) -맹자거제(孟子去齊)를 중심으로-

박연우 ( Park Yeon-woo ) 충남대학교 유학연구소 2019 유학연구 Vol.46 No.-

This study set out to demonstrate that it was the conscience of King Xuan of Zhou that let Mencius go even though he asked him many questions about benevolent government and royal politics and discussed the affairs of the state including diplomacy and war, depending on him. For this purpose, the study analyzed his 15 questions to Mencius and demonstrated that Tangmu Revolution that he mentioned to King Xuan was an opportunity for the king to recognize the people and that the idea of ‘Minguigungyeong(民貴君輕)’ would result in a revolution theory according to the benevolence and righteousness of a monarch. King Xuan asked questions about benevolent government and royal politics to Mencius, but he hid his greed of wishing to be a king of kings. Being embarrassed about it, he confessed his liking for courage, wealth, and women. He finally visited Mencius when he was about to leave Zhou. He became embarrassed after meeting Mencius at the time of parting and accordingly expressed his will for hospitable treatment to him a few days later, which indicates his conscience. What Mencius wanted from him was, however, that he would make a determination about royal politics and practice it to save people from poverty and war. Knowing what he wanted, King Xuan was not able to hold him till the end. It was due to his conscience that he let Mencius go in the end.

맹자의 논리(論理) 전환(轉換) 분석(分析) -맹자(孟子) 「양혜왕(梁惠王)」 상편(上篇)을 중심으로-

박연우 충남대학교 유학연구소 2023 유학연구 Vol.64 No.-

This paper aims to analyze why Mencius presented ‘Zhimin zhi chan (制民之産)’ using an intentional logical narrative strategy that improves and develops the subject of discourse, when the values presented in the discourse between Mencius and King Hui of Liang in Chapters 1 to 5 of “King Hui of Liang, part 1” and in the discourse between Mencius and King Xuan of Qi in Chapter 7 collide. This paper considers that the social theme that Mencius lectured to King Hui of Liang and King Xuan of Qi in “King Hui of Liang, Part 1” is ‘Zhimin zhi chan (制民之産)’. It refers to an industry, through which the leader stabilizes the lives of the people in distress in an institutional way. The situation with conflicting values found in the discourse between Mencius and the two kings are captured with seven keywords and three aspects: ‘national prosperity, military power and benevolence’, ‘confrontation between ideals and reality’, and ‘desire and reformative tendencies’. Three peculiarities of Mencius’ narrative techniques were found when he dealt with conflicting values: Mencius induced benevolent politics and royal politics using intentional transition of logic and presented the method of ‘Zhimin zhi chan (制民之産)’ in every transition. In addition, he developed the discourse using counterpoint, which harmoniously added the theme of Mencius ideology to the independent situation of discourse. ‘Zhimin zhi chan (制民之産)’ policy, proposed by Mencius, was not to hinder the survival of the people and the State was to enact, support and expand the industry. The policy aimed to realize loyalty and filial piety through education, based on material abundance where the basics were satisfied and to create a culture in which people could take pride. After all, Mencius was trying to solve the urgent priority of stabilizing the survival of the people through ‘Zhimin zhi chan (制民之産)’. His intended symbol of the discourse was the message that the King must be like a King, which sounds an alarm to the King who was not aware of his responsibility as a leader. 본고의 목적은 맹자 「양혜왕 상」편에 보이는 맹자가 양 혜왕과 제 선왕의 담론에서 담론의 주제를 향상⸱발전시키는 의도된 논리 서술전략을 통해 왜 담론의 주제를 전환했는지 분석하는 것이다. 맹자와 두 임금 사이에서 논제가 불일치하거나 대립하는 상황은 일곱 가지 명제로추출되었고, 그 논제들은 ‘부국강병과 인의’, ‘이상과 현실의 대립’, ‘욕망과 개혁적성향’의 세 가지 양상을 보였다. 맹자와 두 왕의 담론에서 발견한 맹자의 논리 전환기법에 대한 세 가지 특이점은 의도적인 논리 전환을 통하여 仁政과 왕도정치를 유도하였고, 그때마다 ‘백성의 산업을 제정’해 주는 방법을 제시했으며, 담론의 독립된상황에서 맹자사상의 주제를 더하여 조화를 이루는 對位法을 통해 담론을 발전시키고 있었다. 맹자가 양 혜왕과 제 선왕에게 강론한 주제는 ‘齊民之産’으로 귀결되었다. ‘제민지산’은 지도자가 도탄에 빠진 백성의 생명을 제도적으로 안정되게 만들어 주는 것을말한다. 맹자가 제시한 ‘제민지산’ 정책은 국가가 백성의 생존을 방해하지 않아야 하며, 산업을 제정·지원·확산해 줄 것과 기본이 충족된 물질적 풍요 속에서 교육을통해 충효가 실행되고, 이에 따른 자부심을 가질 수 있는 문화를 형성해 나아갈 수있는 정책이었다. 결국 맹자가 두 왕의 대화에서 논리를 전환한 목적은 백성의 생존을 안정시키는 급선무를 해결하려는 ‘제민지산’에 있었으며 맹자의 의도된 담론의 상징은 무엇보다 왕이 왕다워야 한다는 메시지로써 지도자로서의 책임을 인지하지못하는 왕에게 경종을 울린 것이다.

Share Repurchases and Insider Trading Behavior: Evidence from Korea

박연우,김경순,이진훤,김유진 한국증권학회 2023 한국증권학회지 Vol.52 No.3

Using the context of open-market share repurchases in Korea, we examine insider trading behavior around share repurchase disclosures. In particular, we investigate managerial opportunism as a motivation for share repurchases by analyzing how insider trading behavior differs between direct share repurchases with a strong signal effect and indirect share repurchases with a weak signal effect. We obtained the following research findings. First, in direct share repurchases, insiders become net sellers after share repurchase disclosure. Second, insider net selling is the highest when a company’s stock is overvalued rather than when its liquidity is the highest. Third, insider buy trades are followed by insider sell trades in direct share repurchases. Fourth, this negative relationship is more pronounced in firms with low ownership concentration. Finally, in direct share repurchases, opportunistic firms experience inferior stock performance compared with non-opportunistic firms. Overall, our findings support the managerial opportunism hypothesis, that is, in direct share repurchases, managers engage in informed trades based on the market confirmation bias that a share repurchase is a signal of undervaluation.

난소종양의 임상 및 병리학적 고찰

박연우(YW Park),최병익(BI Choi),한종설(JS Han),김성도(SD Kim),안재영(JY Ahn) 대한산부인과학회 1994 Obstetrics & Gynecology Science Vol.37 No.8

For the evaluation of clinical and pathological characteristics of ovarian tumors, a retrospective study was performed on 1164 patients with ovarian tumors who were confirmed with post-operative histopathology at the Department of Obsetrics and Gynecology, Koryo General Hospital from 1973 to 1992. 1. Among 1164 cases, the incidence of non-neoplastic ovarian cysts, benigna nd malignant ovarian tumors were 488 cases(41.9%), 594 cases(51.1%) and 82 cases(7.0%), respectively. 2. Among neoplastic ovarian tumors, cystic teratomas (282 cases, 41.7%) was most common, followed by serous cystadenomas(183 cases, 27.8%) and mucinous cystadenomas (107 cases, 15.7%) in decreasing order of frequency. 3. The age distribution showed that 21 to 50 years age groups were most common in both non-neoplastic ovarian cysts(89.8%) and benign ovarian tumors(81.7%). The most common age group of malignant ovarian tumor was also 21 to 50 years age group(59.9%), followed by more than 50 years age group(35.3%). 4. Bilaterality was 7.4% in non-neoplastic ovarian cysts, 12.1% in benign ovarian tumors, 46.7% in malignant ovarian tumors and 87.5% in metastatic tumors of ovarian malignancy. 5. The mean size of malignant tumors was larger than that of the benign ovarian tumors. The largest size of the malignant ovarian tumors was in mucinous adenocarcinoma which was about 17.6 cm in average. 6. As for the parity distribution of ovarian tumor patients, nullipara were most common(28.5%) and parity was in inverse relationship with incidence. 7. The most frequent chief complaint was abdominal pain or discomfort (41.9%), followed by abdominal palpable mass(37.7%) and abnormal genital bleeding(8.1%). 8. Ovarian tumors associated with pregnancy were 166 cases(15.7%) in non-neoplastic and benign ovarian tumors. Of the 85 benign ovarian tumors, cystic teratoma was most common in 65.9%. 9. According to FIGO classification of malignant ovarian tumors, stage I(37.8%) was most common, followed by stage IV(29.3%), stage III(21.9%) and stage II(11.0%). 10. As for the surgical treatment of malignant ovarian tumors, total hysterectomy with bilateral salpingo-ooporectomy was most commonly performed (31.7%). Adjuvant chemotherapy was performed in 37.8%.

스트레스 테스트와 Monte Carlo 시뮬레이션을 통한 국내금융기관의 주택담보대출 신용위험분석

박연우(Yun-Woo Park),방두완(Doo-Won Bang) 한국주택학회 2011 주택연구 Vol.19 No.4

본고에서는 스트레스 테스트와 Monte Carlo 시뮬레이션 방법론을 사용하여 국내 금융기관의 주택담보대출의 예상손실을 추정한다. 스트레스 테스트는 이례적인 거시경제 충격으로 인한 금융기관의 예상손실을 측정하는 방법으로 본고에서는 거시경제의 충격으로 발생하는 스트레스 요인 중 주택가격 폭락과 차입자의 상환능력급락을 고려한다. 1998년 외환위기 당시 대표적인 부동산 시장지표인 국민은행 아파트가격지수 기준으로 서울, 강남, 전국 아파트 가격은 각각 17.8%, 17.6%, 14.9% 하락하였다. 이를 기초로 이례적인 경기침체상황이 발생한 경우 주택가격이 20%까지 하락하고 차입자의 신용등급이 3등급까지 하락할 때 발생하는 주택담보대출 손실규모를 산출한다. 본 논문의 특징은 지금까지 국내에 보고된 스트레스 테스트 논문과는 달리 거시경제에 이례적 충격이 발생했을 때 주택담보대출의 부도율과 부도대출손실률(loss given default; LGD)의 변화를 미시적 자료를 사용하여 실증적으로 추정하여 손실규모를 추정하였다는 것이다. 구체적으로 주택가격하락이 담보가치하락을 통해 부도율과 LGD에 미치는 영향을 추정하였다. 상환능력하락도 없고 주택가격도 변화하지 않을 때 주택담보대출 포트폴리오의 예상손실률은 0.27%; 상환능력하락 없이 주택가격만 10%, 20% 하락할 때 예상손실률은 0.34%, 0.44%; 주택가격이 20% 하락하고 상환능력하락이 1등급, 2등급, 3등급 하락할때 예상손실률은 1.50%, 2.32%, 3.49%로 각각 추정되었다. 그러나 주택가격이 30%, 40%, 50% 하락하고 신용등급 3등급 하락하는 스트레스 상황(미국의 경우와 같은 극심한 스트레스 상황과 유사) 하에서 예상손실률은 2.66%~3.41%로 증가하는 것으로 추정 되었다. Monte Carlo 시뮬레이션을 통한 분석결과 주택가격 20%하락과 신용등급 1등급, 2등급, 3등급 하락시 99.9% VaR(최대 손실예상치)는 각각 1.518%, 2.261%, 3.307%로, 99.99% VaR는 각각 1.678%, 2.421%, 3.466%로 추정되었다. 국내주택담보대출은 담보부 대출로 신용대출에 비해 안정성이 높은데다 국내금융기관들의 낮은 담보인정비율로 인해 주택가격하락 스트레스에는 높은 안정성을 보이나 가계의 상환능력하락 스트레스에는 취약함을 확인하였다. In this paper, we estimate the expected loss of mortgage loans held by Korean financial institutions using stress test as well as Monte Carlo simulation. Stress test attempts to measure the expected loss incurred by the financial institutions caused by an extraordinary level of shocks in the macro-economy. As macro-shocks we consider a dramatic fall in the house price and the impairment in the borrower's debt repayment ability. The Kookmin house price index for Seoul, Kangnam, and the whole country, fell by 17.8%, 17.6%, 14.9%, respectively, following the 1998 foreign exchange crisis in Korea. On the basis of this, we estimate the mortgage loan loss caused by the fall in the house price of 20% as well as up to 3 notch drop in the borrower's credit rating. The most salient aspect of this paper is the fact that unlike the other research papers which use the stress test methodology we estimate the default rate, LGD (loss given default) and the loan loss regression equations using micro data empirically. Specifically, we estimate the effect of the house price change, which reduces the value of the loan collateral, on the default rate and the LGD. We also model the impact of the reduction in the borrower ability to repay the loans on the default rate empirically. In the base case, where there is no macro-stress, the expected loan loss is 0.27%. When the house price falls by 10% and 20% and the borrower's credit rating does not fall, the expected loan losses are 0.34% and 0.44%, respectively. We find that when the house price falls by 20% and the borrower's credit rating falls by 1 notch, 2 notch, and 3 notch the expected loan losses are 1.50%, 2.32%, 3.49%, respectively. Furthermore, under more extreme stress conditions where the house price falls by 30%, 40% and 50% and the credit ratings of prime borrowers, middle credit risk borrowers as well as high credit risk borrowers drop by three notches (similar to the stress in the US), the expected mortgage loan loss rate rises to 2.66%-3.41%. On the other hand, the results of Monte Carlo simulation shows that when the house price falls by 20% and the borrower's credit rating falls by 1 notch, 2 notch, and 3 notch the expected loan loss is such that the 99.9% VaRs (value-at-risk) are 1.518%, 2.261%, 3.307%, respectively and the 99.99% VaRs (value-at-risk) are 1.678%, 2.421%, 3.466%, respectively. The Korean mortgages show a high stability in the face of the house price drop stress since the lending institutions apply a very low loan-to-value ratio in addition to the mortgage loans being collateralized with residential properties. On the other hand, they are sensitivie to the stress caused by the reduction in the borrowers repayment ability.

건설업체의 재무건전성모형 추정과 건설업의 스트레스 테스트

박연우 ( Yun Woo Park ),방두완 ( Doo Won Bang ) 한국부동산분석학회 2011 부동산학연구 Vol.17 No.3

We examine the influence of the macro variables on the financial soundness of the construction industry. We estimate the financial soundness model with three macro variables, namely, the change in house price, interest rates and the change in GDP as explanatory variables using the panel data of the listed as well as the unlisted construction firms in Korea for the 2000-2009 period. We find that the house price and the GDP have a positive influence, while interest rates have a negative influence, on the financial soundness of the construction firms. Next, we estimate the impact of two macro shocks in the form of a house price drop and an interest rate increase on the probability of financial distress in the construction industry. We find that unlisted firms are more vulnerable to the housing market and interest rate stresses than listed firms showing that loans to the smaller firms without access to the capital markets have a greater credit risk suggesting that the financial institutions which have lent to the unlisted firms face a greater credit loss.

주택가격과 은행대출의 상관관계에 관한 연구

박연우 ( Yun Woo Park ),방두완 ( Doo Won Bang ) 한국금융연구원 2012 금융연구 Vol.26 No.1

Most households fund house purchases using mortgage loans from banks or other financial institutions since residential properties tend to be costly. This leads to an interaction between bank loans, more specifically, residential mortgage loans and house prices. While there have been numerous studies which examine the relationship between bank lending and house prices, there is no consensus on the direction of causality between the two variables. In spite of the close relationship between the housing market and the banking soundness there has been little study on the causality between bank lending and house prices in Korea. This paper aims to shed light on the relationship between bank lending and house prices and derive policy implications on housing finance. The study periods are 1986Q1~2010Q4, which we break into the real estate cycle 1 (January 1986~December 1998) and the real estate cycle 2 (January 1999~December 2010), the latter of which we break up in turn into up market in cycle 2 (January 1999~December 2006) and down market in cycle 2 (January 2007~December 2010) while the markets examined are Korea as a whole as well as Seoul and three regional markets (Daegu, Gwangju, and Busan). We examine the long run relationship using the co-integration tests and the causality using the dynamic response models, namely, VECM. We measure house prices using the Kookmim Bank apartment price index while we measure bank credit using the total bank lending as well as residential mortgage loans. Since the house price dynamics and the characteristics of banking tend to be different between Seoul and regional markets, we divide the Korean residential market into Seoul and three regional markets. In addition, we also consider other factors that can influence house prices such as household income, money supply, interest rate, the number of new housing units permitted and housing construction costs. The empirical findings are as follows. Cointegration tests show that long run relationship exists between house prices and bank lending in Korea. As for the causality between house prices and bank lending based on dynamic response models we find that for the study periods bank lending causes house prices and vice versa in all markets. However, housing demand side factors such as GDP, M2 and interest rates and housing supply side factors such as housing permits and housing construction costs do not have a consistent effect on either house prices or bank lending across various markets. Furthermore, we find that if imbalance occurs between house prices and bank lending it is reduced over time so as to maintain the long run equilibrium between house prices and bank lending. Unlike the hypothesis that the causality relationship between bank lending and house prices for Seoul would be different from that for regional markets, we find positive relationship between bank lending and house prices consistently for Seoul and regional markets. This result suggests that as the Korean residential mortgage markets mature there is a gradual convergence of the housing financing markets between Seoul and the regional markets. Our findings suggest that, since bank lending causes house prices, sudden rise (fall) causes sudden rise (fall) in bank lending leading to banking instability. They also suggest that, since house prices cause bank lending, ability-to-repay tests such as DTI serve as an effective house price stabilizer.

주택가격과 은행대출의 상관관계에 관한 연구

박연우,방두완 한국주택학회 2011 한국주택학회 학술대회 발표논문집 Vol.2011 No.3

웨어러블 디바이스를 이용한 고령자 인지활동 게임

박연우(Park Yeon Woo),김수현(Kim Su Hyun),윤수빈(Yoon Su Bin),홍선수(Hong Seon Su),황나희(Hwang Na Hee),이기영(Ki Young Lee) 대한전자공학회 2019 대한전자공학회 학술대회 Vol.2019 No.11