로봇산업이 타 산업에 미치는 경제적 효과에 관한 연구

신용재 한국인터넷전자상거래학회 2020 인터넷전자상거래연구 Vol.20 No.5

This study set out to analyze the effects of the robot industry on the South Korean economy in order to make a contribution to the South Korean government's elaborate policies and economic achievements with regard to the robot industry. For this purpose, the robot industry as the research topic was divided into manufacturing robots and the entire robot industry for analysis. Used in analysis were the demand & supply-driven model of input-output analysis and Leontif’s Price Model and Inter-industry Analysis. The analysis results show that manufacturing robots had production-inducing effects of 1.645 in the demand-driven model and added value-inducing effects of 0.623 on other industries. They also had supply shortage effects of 0.036 in the supply-driven model. The industry of manufacturing robots itself had production-inducing effects of 1.118 and added value-inducing effects of 0.272. Robots had high impacts on the manufacturing industry, recording production-inducing effects of 65.2%, supply shortage effects of 70.8%, and rather lower added value-inducing effects of 53.8%. The entire robot industry including manufacturing, service, and SW&parts had production-inducing effects of 0.703 and added value-inducing effects of 0.295 in the demand-driven model and supply shortage effects of 0.611 in the supply-driven model on other industries. As for the percentage of effects by the industry, production-inducing effects recorded 51.6% for secondary industries; added value-inducing effects 53.9% for tertiary industries; and supply shortage effects 64.2%. The inter-industry analysis results reveal that both the entire robot industry and manufacturing robots had lower forward linkage effects than 1 and a little higher backward linkage effects than 1, being categorized into the intermediate demand primary industry type.

Role of the Natural Gas Supply Industry in the Korean National Economy: An Input-Output Analysis

송태호,임슬예,유승훈 한국혁신학회 2014 한국혁신학회지 Vol.9 No.1

Increasing demand for natural gas (NG) and technical developments in the NG supply industry have required that researchers provide policy makers with accessible and reliable information regarding the role of the NG supply industry in the national economy. This paper attempts to apply a static input-output (I-O) analysis to examining the role of the NG supply sector in the Korean national economy. To this end, demand-driven model, supply-driven model, and Leontief price model are discussed and employed. This study pays particular and close attention to the NG supply sector by taking the sector as exogenous and then investigating economic impacts of it. Production-inducing effects and supply-shortage effects of the NG supply sector, and the impacts of price change in the sector on industrial prices and overall price level are analyzed.

항공운송서비스 산업의 경제적 역할과 한국 경제에 미치는 영향 - COVID-19 상황을 대처하기 위해 -

신용재 한국항공경영학회 2020 한국항공경영학회지 Vol.18 No.3

The transportation industry is related to the input of resources procurement when producing goods and services. Swiftness, accuracy, and efficiency are very important factors to maximize the profit of the enterprises. In particular, the aviation transportation service industry is one of the most crucial industries internationally as well as domestically. Because it connects the world and promotes the flows of trade, tourism, and investment. However, the unprecedented disasters such as the current COVID-19 negatively impacts on this aviation transportation service industry. To properly cope with this situation, the impacts of the aviation transportation service industry and the roles of this sector, specifically, in the context of the Korea economy need to be proceeded. This study analyzes the Demand-driven model, the Supply-driven model, the Leontief price model, and the Inter-industry linkage analysis, which are the main models of the Input-Output analysis to investigate the economic role of the aviation transportation service industry and its impacts on other industries. The results of the analysis show that the effects of the aviation transportation service industry on other industries were 1.344, 0.551, and 0.206 which are resulting from the production inducing effects resulting, value-added inducing effects, and employee compensation inducing effects, respectively, based on the Demand-driven model. The supply shortage effect was 1.350 which is tested by the supply-driven model. The effect of inflation was 0.719% which was tested based on the Leontief price model. In terms of inter-industry linkage effects, we found two effects that named the forward effect and the backward effect. The results were 0.558, and 1.078, respectively, which indicates that the characteristics of the final demand industry. Overall, our results provide the insights that Korea’s aviation transportation service industry has grown into the more significant industry since its economic roles and its impacts have increased as compared to the previously published literature. Moreover, based on the results of the production inducing effect and supply shortage effect in the manufacturing industry, this study shows that the aviation transportation service industry became an important domain as a role of cargo transportation as well. The results of this study imply that the directions of the COVID-19 aid policy such as size and method of supports need to be developed depending on the effects of the industries which affected by the aviation transportation service industry. By understanding the role of the aviation transportation service industry and the quantitative impacts on the other industries, this research can contribute to establishing a policy to minimize the economic damage caused by the losses of the aviation transportation service industry. 운송서비스산업은 하나의 재화 및 서비스를 생산할 때 투입되는 자원의 조달과 관련되는 것으로 이것을 얼마나 신속하고 정확하게 그리고 효율적으로 운용할 수 있는가는 기업의 이윤극대화 측면에서매우 중요한 요소이다. 이중에서 항공운송서비스산업은 전 세계를 연결하며 무역, 관광 및 투자의 흐름을 촉진하기 때문에 세계적, 국가적으로 매우 중요한 산업 중 하나이다. 하지만 항공운송서비스 산업은 전례 없는 COVID-19로 인하여 어려운 상황에 처해있다. 이와 같은 상황에 제대로 대처하기 위해서는 항공운송서비스 산업이 한국경제에서 어떠한 역할을 하는지, 한국경제에 얼마만큼의 영향을 미치는지에 대한 분석이 선행되어야 한다. 따라서 본 연구는 항공운송서비스 산업을 중심으로 경제적 역할과 타 산업에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위해 산업연관분석의 주요 모델인 수요유도모형, 공급유도모형, 레온티에프 모형, 산업연쇄효과를 분석하였다. 분석결과 항공운송서비스 산업이 타 산업에 미치는 영향은 수요유도모형의 결과인 생산유발효과의경우 1.344원, 부가가치유발효과 0.551원, 피용자보수유발효과 0.206원으로 나타났고 공급유도모형의공급지장효과는 1.350원, 레온티에프 가격모형의 물가파급효과는 0.719%, 산업연쇄효과에서 전방연쇄효과는 0.558, 후방연쇄효과는 1.078로 최종수요적 산업의 특성을 나타냈다. 산업연쇄효과를 제외한나머지 효과들은 1원의 투자 또는 생산이 이루어질 때 타 산업에 미치는 영향들로써 생산유발효과와공급지장효과의 경우 1을 상회하는 높은 수치를 나타냈다. 이러한 결과는 과거 2010년에 발표된 연구와 비교했을 때 한국의 항공운송서비스 산업이 국가 경제에서 차지하는 경제적 역할과 그 영향력이증대되었음을 의미한다. 또한 제조업에 미치는 생산유발효과와 공급지장유발효과의 결과를 살펴보면, 항공운송서비스 분야 중 화물운송과 관련된 부문 역시 중요성이 증대되었음을 보여주고 있다. 이것은항공운송서비스 산업 및 이와 관련된 산업에 대한 투자 또는 지원을 함에 있어 산업의 세부 분야별로지원 규모 및 방법을 다르게 정책 방향이 수립되어야하는 것을 의미한다. 이와 같은 접근 방법과 분석결과는 항공운송서비스 산업의 역할을 파악하고 타 산업에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 파악할 수 있기 때문에 항공운송서비스 산업의 피해로 인한 경제적 피해를 최소화시키기 위한 정책을 수립하는데 기여할 수 있다.

4차 산업혁명 핵심요소산업의 구조와 파급효과 분석에 관한 연구

신용재 국제e-비즈니스학회 2019 e-비즈니스 연구 Vol.20 No.4

The purpose of this study is to analyze the economic ripple effects of software supply development and computer related services, which are the core industry of the 4th industrial revolution, and to analysis the production inducing effects and the value added inducing effects through the demand-driven model. Also, I analyzed the front and back linkage effects through interindustry linkage effect and supply shortage effects throught supply driven effects. As a result of analysis, both industries show that domestically produced goods have a greater impact on the Korean economy than imports. According to the demand-driven model, the production inducing effect is higher than the software development supply 1.476 won, which is 1.846 won for direct and indirect effect of computer related service in 2014. On the other hand, the added value added inducing effect is higher than the sum of direct and indirect effect of software development supply 0.206 won in 2014 and 0.640 won in computer related service. In addition, the supply shortage effect caused by the supply-driven model showed a great difference in 2014 when the computer related service was 1.402 won and the software development supply was 0.434 won. In the case of the interindustry linkage effects, both industries have the characteristics of final demand. 4차 산업혁명 핵심요소산업인 소프트웨어공급개발과 컴퓨터관련서비스의 경제적 파급효과를 분석하기위해 수요유도모형을 통해 생산유발효과와 부가가치유발효과를 알아보았고, 공급유도모형을 통해 공급지장효과 그리고 산업연쇄효과를 통해 전후방연쇄효과를 분석하였다. 분석결과 두 산업 모두 수요, 공급유도모형의 결과 국산이 수입에 비해 한국경제에 더 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 국산 핵심요소산업의 수요유도모형 결과를 살펴보면, 생산유발효과는 2014년 기준 컴퓨터관련서비스가 직·간접효과 합 1.846원으로 소프트웨어개발공급 1.476원보다 높게 나타났다. 반면, 부가가치유발효과는 2014년 기준 소프트웨어개발공급 직·간접효과 합이 0.806원, 컴퓨터관련서비스 0.640원 보다 높게 나타나고 있다. 또한 공급유도모형에 따른 공급지장효과는 2014년 컴퓨터관련서비스가 1.402원, 소프트웨어개발공급이 0.434원으로 큰 차이를 나타냈다. 산업연쇄효과의 경우 두 산업은 모두 최종 수요재의 성격을 가지는 것으로 나타났다.

산업연관 분석을 이용한 부동산 산업의 경제적 파급효과 분석

이승철,이승재,한종호 한국부동산연구원 2009 부동산연구 Vol.19 No.1

본 논문에서는 2005년도 산업연관표에 근거한 산업연관분석을 이용하여 부동산 산업의 경제적 파급효과를 세 가지 내용으로 분석하고자 한다. 첫째, 수요유도형 모형을 이용하여 부동산산업에서의 생산 혹은 투자가 다른 산업의 생산, 부가가치, 취업에 미치는 영향을 살펴본다. 둘째, 공급유도형 모형을 적용하여 부동산산업에서의 공급지장이 다른 산업에 미치는 효과에 대해 검토한다. 셋째, 레온티에프 가격모형을 이용하여 부동산산업 산출물 가격변동이 다른 산업의 산출물 가격에 미치는 영향에 대해 논의한다. 특히 이러한 분석을 수행하는데 있어서 부동산산업을 중심에 놓고 이를 외생화하여 분석 및 해석하는 접근방법을 취함으로써 부동산산업에 대해 논의를 집중한다. 또한 전방연쇄효과 및 후방연쇄효과와 같은 정보를 얻기 위해 산업간 연쇄효과 분석결과도 제시한다. 연구결과를 요약하자면, 부동산 산업의 1원 생산은 타 산업의 생산을 0.4467원 유발하며, 타 산업의 부가가치를 0.1887원 유발한다. 부동산산업의 1원 공급지장으로 타 산업에서 0.4781원의 생산차질이 발생한다. 끝으로 부동산산업의 10% 가격인상이 타 부문에 미치는 물가파급효과는 0.0224%로 분석되었다. The real estate industry in Korea plays an important role in the national economy. This paper attempts to apply input-output (I-O) analysis to role of the real estate industry in the national economy for the year 2005, with specific application to Korea. A static I-O framework is employed, focusing on three topics in its application. First, the impacts of the production or investment in real estate industry on the production, value-added, and employment of other sectors are explored by using demand-driven model. Second, the impacts of the supply shortage in real estate industry on other sectors are looked into by using supply-driven model. Third, the impacts of the rise in real estate industry's price on prices of other products are discussed by using Leontief price model. This paper pays particular attention to the real estate industry by taking this industry as exogenous and then investigating its economic impacts. In addition, inter-industry linkage analysis is performed to obtain information on the forward and backward linkage effects to other industries. It can be summarized that the real estate industry has 1.4467 production-inducing effect, 0.4781 supply shortage effect, 0.0224 effect of price change, 0.8111 forward linkage effect, and 0.8143 backward linkage effect.

한국 철강산업의 국민경제적 파급효과 분석

정군오(Jung, Kun-Oh),임응순(Lim, Eung-Soon) 한국산학기술학회 2008 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.9 No.3

전 세계적으로 철강산업의 중요성은 높아지고 있으며, 철강수요 역시 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 한국 철강산업의 철강생산량은 전 세계에서 5위를 차치하고 있어 국내에서는 철강산업에 대한 관심이 커져가고 있다. 또한 철강산업은 국내에서 경제성장을 이끌어 온 국가기간산업중의 하나이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 산업연관분석을 이용하여 철강산업이 국민경제에 미치는 파급효과들을 시계열로 분석하여 보고자 한다. 먼저 수요유도형 모형을 이용하여 생산유발효과, 부가가치 유발효과 그리고 취업유발효과를 살펴 볼 것이며, 아울러 공급유도형 모형 및 레온티에프 가격모형을 적용하여 철강산업의 공급지장효과와 물가파급효과에 대하여 살펴보고자 한다. The steel industry is becoming more important around the world and the demand of steel is increasing. Korea is the 5th country of steel producing in the world and the attention in the steel industry is growing. The steel industry is one of the key industry in leading the economic growth in Korea. This study attempts to analyze by time-series the economic impacts of the steel industry using an inter-industry analysis. Specifically, the study investigates production-inducing effect, value added inducing effect and employ-inducing effect of the steel industry based on demand-driven model and the study deals with supply shortage effect and sectoral price effect of the steel industry by using supply-driven model and Leontief price model.

폐기물처리 및 자원재활용서비스 부문의 경제적 파급효과 분석

백민지,김호영,유승훈 한국폐기물자원순환학회 2015 한국폐기물자원순환학회지 Vol.32 No.3

The government of each country is making a policy of expanding recycling of wastes and waste-to-energy to mitigate the greenhouse gas emissions to cope with climate change. This paper attempts to analyze the economic effects of waste disposal & materials recycling services (WDMRS) sector using 2012 input-output (IO) table published in 2014. To this end, we deal with three sectors: waste disposal, materials recycling services, and WDMRS sectors. More specifically, the production-inducing effect, value-added creation effect, and employment-inducing effect of the WDMRS sector are investigated based on demand-driven model. The supply shortage effect and the price pervasive effect are also examined employing supply-driven model and Leontief price model, respectively. The results show that the production or investment of 1.0 won in the WDMRS sector induces the production of 1.9324 won and the value-added of 0.7217 won in the national economy. Moreover, the production or investment of 1.0 billion won, supply shortage of 1.0 won, and a price increase of 10.0% in the WDMRS sector touch off the employment of 15.2462 persons, production loss of 2.0589 won, and an increases in overall price level by 0.0699%, respectively. This quantitative information can be usefully utilized inassessment of the WDMRS sector-related investment and policy.

폐기물처리 및 자원재활용서비스 부문의 경제적 파급효과 분석

백민지,김호영,유승훈 한국폐기물자원순환학회 2015 한국폐기물자원순환학회지 Vol.32 No.3

The government of each country is making a policy of expanding recycling of wastes and waste-to-energy to mitigate the greenhouse gas emissions to cope with climate change. This paper attempts to analyze the economic effects of waste disposal & materials recycling services (WDMRS) sector using 2012 input-output (IO) table published in 2014. To this end, we deal with three sectors: waste disposal, materials recycling services, and WDMRS sectors. More specifically, the production-inducing effect, value-added creation effect, and employment-inducing effect of the WDMRS sector are investigated based on demand-driven model. The supply shortage effect and the price pervasive effect are also examined employing supply-driven model and Leontief price model, respectively. The results show that the production or investment of 1.0 won in the WDMRS sector induces the production of 1.9324 won and the value-added of 0.7217 won in the national economy. Moreover, the production or investment of 1.0 billion won, supply shortage of 1.0 won, and a price increase of 10.0% in the WDMRS sector touch off the employment of 15.2462 persons, production loss of 2.0589 won, and an increases in overall price level by 0.0699%, respectively. This quantitative information can be usefully utilized in assessment of the WDMRS sector-related investment and policy.

논문 : 항만 폐쇄의 국가 경제적 파급효과 분석 -수요유도형 모형과 공급유도형 모형의 적용-

이민규 ( Min Kyu Lee ),김의준 ( Eui June Kim ) 한국해운물류학회(구 한국해운학회) 2015 해운물류연구 Vol.31 No.4

최근 중국 톈진항 대형 폭발사고에서 시사한 바와 같이 항만 폐쇄는 예기치 않은 사고로 발생할 수 있다. 항만 폐쇄는 국가 경제적으로 부정적 파급효과를 초래하기 때문에 파급 효과의 정량화를 통해 항만 안전 계획을 수립할 필요가 있다. 본 연구는 산업연관분석의 수요유도형 모형과 공급유도형 모형을 적용하여 울산항의 3개월 폐쇄에 따른 경제적 파급효과를 추산하였다. 분석 결과를 정리하면, 울산항의 3개월 폐쇄는 석유 및 석탄제품, 수송장비, 화학제품 등의 매출액을 축소시키고 우리나라 국내총생산의 1.1%를 감소시키는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 울산항이 3개월 폐쇄된다면, 울산지역의 취업자 수가 10.6% 감소하여 고용 시장이 심각한 위협을 받을 것으로 예견된다. 분석 결과는 항만 위기 관리시스템 구축의 편익 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다. 본 연구는 항만 폐쇄의 경제적 파급효과를 실증적으로 분석하였다는 점에서 항만 연구를 다양하게 접근하는 계기가 될 것이다. 아울러 정부가 항만 안전 정책을 수립하는 데 많은 시사점을 제공할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. An explosion that killed 173 people and injured several hundred others at Tianjin port on Wednesday, 12 August 2015 and the subsequent port disruption this precipitated has led to increased social concerns for port safety. Port shutdowns caused by unexpected phenomena such as natural disasters, port labor strikes, and technological accidents can generate negative impacts on the entire national economy, as inputs for intermediate and final consumption cannot be transported, causing disruptions down the supply chain, while exports for foreign markets are obstructed, causing production disruptions up the supply chain. Given that the spill-over effects of a port shutdown involve potential losses, an explicit estimate of such impacts can serve as a reference point in strategic planning for port safety. In this regard, this study analyzed economic impacts of the port shutdown using input-output analysis (i.e. demand-driven and supply-driven models). Specifically, Ulsan Port was selected as the research object with regard to port throughput and the probability of diversion routes. Moreover, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) members’ oil-reserve rules, the period of the port shutdown was meant to not exceed three months. The impacts of the port shutdown directly refer to the impacts of import, export, and on-site port operation disruptions. Production, added value, employee pay, and employment numbers were considered as measures of economic impacts of the port shutdown. Analysis results reveal that a three-month total shutdown of Ulsan Port induced a large drop in production of “petroleum and coal products,” “transportation equipment,” and “chemicals and allied products,” and an overall reduction of 1.1% in GDP. In particular, if Ulsan Port is completely disrupted for three months, employment rates in the Ulsan region will drop by as much as 10.6% as production would decline in many industries. Given the significant negative impacts of a port shutdown, the development of a port risk management system for safety and resilience is surely necessary. Accordingly, analysis results will offer critical information on the risk benefits of constructing such a system, which can be measured by multiplying the estimates of negative impacts by the probability of a shutdown accident. We combined trade statistics from the transportation mode recorded by the Korea Customs Service with a regional input-output table, which allowed us to generate detailed maritime export and import data by industry. Such combination of input-output tables with another relevant source may enlarge the range of application of inter-industry analysis. By empirically exploring the economic impacts of the Korean port shutdown for the first time, this study will contribute to expanding the scope of port logistics research. Finally, we expect that the results will provide the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries with overarching information for formulating policies to address port safety issues.

산업연관분석을 이용한 일본 방송산업의 국민경제적 파급효과 분석

민용식(Yong Sik Min),임응순(Eung Soon Lim),곽소윤(So Yoon Kwak) 한국아시아학회 2008 아시아연구 Vol.10 No.3

본 논문에서는 산업연관분석을 이용하여 일본 방송산업의 국민경제적 파급효과를 분석하고자 한다. 먼저 수요유도형 모형을 이용하여 생산유발효과, 부가가치 유발효과를 살펴본다. 아울러 공급유도형 모형 및 레온티에프 가격모형을 적용하여 방송산업의 공급지장효과 및 물가파급효과를 살펴본다. 이러한 분석은 모두 방송산업을 내생부문이 아닌 외생부문으로 다룸으로써 방송산업을 중심으로 이루어지게 된다. 주요 분석결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 방송산업의 1엔 생산은 타 산업의 생산을 0.9653엔 만큼 유발하며, 타 산업의 부가가치를 0.5323엔 만큼 유발한다. 한편 방송산업에서 1엔의 공급이 이루어지지 못할 때, 타 산업에서는 1.7383엔의 생산차질이 발생한다. 마지막으로 방송산업 산출물의 가격이 10% 상승했을 때, 국민경제 전체에 미치는 물가파급효과는 0.5596%로 분석되었다. This study attempts to examine the economic impacts of broadcasting industry in Japan using an inter-industry analysis. Specifically, the study investigates production-inducing effect and value added inducing effect of the broadcasting industry in Japan based on demand-driven model. Moreover, the study deals with supply shortage effect and sectoral price effect by using supply-driven model and Leontief price model, respectively, which have been rarely used. These analyses pay particular and close attention to the broadcasting industry of Japan by taking it as exogenous rather than endogenous. Some interesting findings emerge from the study. First, the production of 1.0 yen in the broadcasting industry in Japan induces the production of 0.9653 yen and the value-added of 0.5323 yen in other industries. Second, the supply shortage of 1.0 yen in the broadcasting industry in Japan disables other industries to produce 1.7383 yen. Finally, an increase of 10% in price level of the broadcasting industry in Japan raises the overall price level by 0.5596%.