시진핑 시대 중국의 국가전략과 한반도 정책 연관성 연구: 미중·북중·한중 관계의 상호작용을 중심으로

이재영 계명대학교 국제학연구소 2023 국제학논총 Vol.38 No.-

본 연구의 목적은 시진핑 시기 국가전략과 한반도 정책의 연관성을 파악하기 위해 쟁점을 도출하고, 이러한 쟁점 속에서 미중관계, 한중관계, 북중관계의 상호작용을 분석하는 것이다. 시진핑 시대 국가전략의 쟁점인 북핵 문제 속에서 미중 전략경쟁이 북중 관계에 미치는 영향을 살펴보고, 대만 문제를 통해 미중 전략경쟁과 한중 관계의 연관성을 고찰한다. 그리고 동아시아 지역 안보에 대한 분석을 통해 한미동맹의 강화와 한중관계 사이의 상호작용을 살펴보고, 신냉전 구도 속 북중러와 한미일의 진영 대립을 고찰한다. 한반도 정책의 쟁점인 한반도 3원칙과 쌍중단·쌍궤병행을 분석하면서 중국이 북한을 두둔할 때 사용하는 북한의 합리적 안보 우려 해결이 한반도 비핵화 목표를 대체할 수 있는지와 기존 한반도 문제 해법의 한계와 대안 모색 가능성을 살펴본다. 그리고 대북 제재 완화와 중국의 역할론을 고찰함으로써 미중 전략경쟁 속 북중 밀착의 의미를 분석한다. 마지막으로 한국의 중국 배제 소다자주의 참여가 한중관계에 미치는 영향을 살펴본다. 결론적으로 도출된 쟁점을 분석한 결과, 미중 전략경쟁은 주로 북중관계와 한중관계에 영향을 미치고, 한미동맹 강화와 한미일 협력 역시 한중관계 및 북중관계와 상호작용을 일으킨다. The purpose of this study is to derive important issues in order to understand the relationship between grand strategy and Korean Peninsula policy during the Xi Jinping period, and to analyze the interaction between US-China, South Korea-China, and North Korea-China relations within these issues. This paper examines the impact of U.S.-China strategic competition on North Korea-China relations amidst the North Korean nuclear issue during the Xi Jinping era, and explains the connection between U.S.-China strategic competition and South Korea-China relations through the Taiwan issue. Through analysis of regional security in East Asia, this study examines the strengthening of the ROK-US alliance and the interaction between South Korea-China relations, and explains the confrontation between North Korea-China-Russia and South Korea-US-Japan in the new Cold War structure. In terms of the issue of Korean Peninsula policy, this paper analyzes China’s three principles on the Korean Peninsula and dual suspension/dual track parallelism policies, whether resolving North Korea’s reasonable security concerns that China uses when protecting North Korea can replace the goal of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and the limitations and alternatives of existing solutions to the Korean Peninsula problem. And by examining the easing of sanctions against North Korea and China’s role, the meaning of North Korea-China closeness in the US-China strategic competition is explained. Lastly, this study examines the impact of South Korea’s participation in the small groups excluding China, led by the United States. on South Korea-China relations. In conclusion, in these issues, the strategic competition between the US and China mainly affects North Korea-China relations and South Korea-China relations, and the strengthening of the ROK-US alliance and South Korea-US-Japan cooperation also interact with South Korea-China relations and North Korea-China relations.

중국의 도전과 한·중 관계 2030

한석희(韓碩熙)(Han, Sukhee) 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회) 2019 신아세아 Vol.26 No.3

미래의 일을 예측하는 것은 쉽지 않은 일이다. 이 글은 2030년의 한·중 관계를 예측해 보는 것을 그 목적으로 한다. 1992년 수교부터 2017년까지 협력적으로 공동발전을 유지해왔던 한·중 관계는 2017년부터 시작된 몇 가지 사건으로 관계의 틀이 변화되었다. 그 첫째가 사드문제이고 둘째가 2018년부터 벌어지고 있는 미·중 무역전쟁, 그리고 셋째가 2018년 이후 나타나고 있는 김정은의 적극적 정상외교이다. 이러한 변화의 결과 한·중 관계에서도 새로운 변화가 나타나고 있으며 이러한 변화가 2030년의 한·중 관계에 주요한 영향을 줄 것이다. 2030년의 한·중 관계에서는 우선 한국의 대중국 의존도가 현격하게 낮아질 것이다. 둘째는 한국이 미·중 사이에서 업그레이드된 헤징전략을 구사할 것이다. 셋째는 한·중 사이에 협력보다는 외교적·군사적 갈등이 확대될 것이다. 이러한 미래의 상황에서 한국의 국익을 증진시키기 위해서는 한·미동맹을 우선적으로 강화하면서 한·중 관계를 우호적으로 관리해 가는 것이다. This paper aims to predict South Korea-China relations in the year 2030. Through two-and-a-half-decades of cooperative and mutually developing ties, South Korea and China have faced fundamental changes in their bilateral relations due to three events that have occurred since 2017: the THAAD controversy, the US-China trade war, and Kim Jong-un’s unprecedented summit diplomacy. These events still influence South Korea-China relations and will play a central role in bilateral ties until 2030. The major characteristics of South Korea-China ties until 2030 are: 1) South Korea will depend less on China not only in terms of the economy, but in regard to North Korea affairs; 2) South Korea will manage an upgraded hedging strategy between the US and China; and 3) there will be more diplomatic and military confrontation than cooperation in South Korea-China relations. To promote South Korea’s national interests, South Korea should prioritize the US-Korea alliance and simultaneously manage South Korea-China relations.

게임이론을 통해 본 중국의 대한반도 전략 -천안함, 연평도 사건을 중심으로

박홍서 ( Hong Seo Park ) 한국외국어대학교 중국연구소 2011 中國硏究 Vol.52 No.-

The article attempts to analyze China`s Korea policy through a game theory. A game-theoretic explanation assumes that China is a rational actor; China behaves rationally to achieve its national goals, whatever is, by calculating the cost and benefit of its moves. Currently, China`s top national goal is "a wealthy people and a powerful country." To meet this, China keeps relatively contrasting grand strategies; one is a strategy of peaceful rise(heping jueqi) and the other is a strategy of "do things to be done(yousuo zuowei)." China`s bilateral relations with states concerning the Korean peninsula results from the logic of these two grand strategies. China`s relations with the United States has a payoff of the prisoner`s dilemma game. For the stability of the Korean peninsula, China takes a cooperative strategy toward the US. By contrast, China attempts to discourage America`s China bashing by supporting its ally North Korea. China`s relations with North Korea can be called a spoiled child game. Given North Korea`s geopolitical significance, China has no other choices but to appease North Korea with massive assistance, politically or economically. China`s relations with South Korea is same as its relations with the US, the prisoner`s dilemma, but the difference is the current China-US relations is in the Pareto optimality(mutual cooperation) and China-South Korea relations is getting into the Nash equilibrium(mutual defection). To dissolve recent tension the relations with China surrounding the Cheonan Ship Sinking and Yeonpyeong Island Attack, South Korea needs to reconsider its excessive pro-American diplomacy which might estrange China.

한(韓)-중(中)의 한반도(韓半島) 통일외교(統一外交) 입장(立場)과 정책(政策)에 대(對)한 소고(小考)

강석승 ( Kang Seok-seung ) 인천대학교 사회과학연구원 2014 사회과학연구 Vol.5 No.-

The purpose of this piece of paper is to understand the evolution of China’s North Korea policy under the era of Xi Jinping, and evaluate President Park’s China visit and South Korea-China relationship. There have been fierce domestic debates on how to understand changing China’s North Korea policies before President Park’s China visit. The debates had tremendous importance to the strategy of Park’s visit to China as well as a direction of South Korea’s China policies. Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, China’s foreign policies is under transformation based upon the new identity of “great power” from the former one of “developing country.” Such transformation certainly influences China’s Korea policies. China’s Korea policy is still evolving. Its policy will be influenced and adjusted by several key variables such as Sino-US relations, South Korea- China relations, and North Korea nuclear development in the future. Last updated on: July 03, 2014 11:39 AM. China and South Korea agreed to expand economic ties and reaffirmed their commitment to a denuclearized Korean peninsula, as Chinese President Xi Jinping began a state visit to Seoul. At a joint news briefing with Xi, South Korean President Park Geun-hye said Seoul and Beijing will work to complete a long-negotiated free trade agreement by the end of this year. Seoul's finance ministry also said the two sides agreed to introduce direct trading between the South Korean won and the Chinese yuan, a measure that will expand the use of China's currency. The decision means the yuan joins the dollar as the only currency directly convertible with the won. Park also said she agreed with Xi that the Korean peninsula should be denuclearized and that the two leaders "resolutely" oppose further nuclear tests by North Korea.

중국 환구시보를 통해 본 사드

권운영 ( Kwon Eunyoung ) 고려대학교 중국학연구소 2017 中國學論叢 Vol.57 No.-

Global Times(環球時報) is The People`s Daily-affiliated mess media organization, but it is the representative newspaper company that has more freedom from the control of Chinese government regarding various international relationships. It tries to view matters multilaterally rather than from simple relationship between two countries. In addition, it mostly represents China`s own interestpatriotically. In this manner, it seems to play a role as a mess media in suggesting China centered policy directions as possible by citing scholars` opinions in the international policy. While THAAD was being discussed, Wang Yi, the Foreign Minister of the People`s Republic of China, strongly opposed to it by saying `THAAD is the US`s sword dance towards China`. Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, also spoke out against THAAD at a summit meeting right before Nuclear Security Summit held in Washington DC. Therefore, the THAAD deployment became a very important international issue by China as well as one of agendas about strategic competition between the US and China. The issue might be a chance to consider the fundamental limit of the China- South Korea relations, which was overlooked. China is very close to North Korea and plays an important role in the South Korea- North Korea relations. China is the only country that can control North Korea, but it has strong relationship with North Korea, so it is a contradictory cooperator that can be opposed to us. The issue of THAAD has been discussed for years, and it can`t be denied that it is an important key word of the China-South Korea relations. China often seems to encourage anti-Korean sentiment through provocative headlines of Chinese Global Times, but the country understands that making strong relationship with South Korea is more important for the country`s interest. However, China focuses on maximizing its power in Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia through continuous pressure by emphasizing that South Korea is responsible for changes due to South Korea`s decision in the matters of the Korean Peninsula. We need to find solution that is more favorable to us while keeping China in countenance without conflict between the two countries. In addition, positive effects of the Moon Jae-in government`s policy towards China are currently expected, so the tone of Chinese Global Times about the South Korea-North Korea relations expected to be more positive.

올바른 한ㆍ중 소통문화 형성과 한ㆍ중 언론의 역할

우성민 중국학연구회 2013 中國學硏究 Vol.- No.66

Today’s modern society is constantly facing new changes marked by the advancement of globalization, pursuit of pluralism and the accelerated move toward an open, information-oriented lifestyle. The innovative invention of the iphone, which promoted communication between individuals as well as the formation and expansion of online social networking, signals the advent of ‘the age of social networking services.’ A rapid transition into such an age is bound to directly and systematically affect mutual relations among different nations. As changes in the social environment become more layered going to the age of social networking services, it is time to review the relationship between China, the country with the largest number of Internet users, and South Korea, a power player in the realm of information technology. Recently in South Korea, there has been a rapid increase in research on South Korea-China relations, focusing on social networking services and the media of the two countries. In particular, many academic articles have been published about Internet nationalism and its effect on South Korea-China relations, while at the same time, various solutions for overcoming conflicts between the two countries are being suggested. Ever since diplomatic relations were established between South Korea and China, the subject of exchange has diversified as much as its content has expanded into various domains. However, the quality of such relations is like a house built on sand in which the level of mutual understanding between the peoples of both countries is scant compared to the rapid increase of exchange fueled by economic needs over a short span of time. This reality is also commonly identified by South Korean and Chinese scholars through their grasp of the latest research trends in relevant areas and their suggestions arguing for the situation’s improvement. Therefore, in actively discussing the respective roles of South Korea and China in pursuit of peace and development in Northeast Asia amid the need to expand academic exchange in the humanities, the role of the media as well as that of South Korean students studying in China and Chinese students studying in South Korea should also be considered as a means of easing conflicting sentiments between the people of South Korea and China, precluding similar sentiments from arising in the future and promoting the two countries’ friendly relations. In order to prevent a ‘difference’ from turning into cause for a ‘clash’ in the new age of social networking services, policies and specific ways to act upon them should be sought so that the media of both countries as well as South Korean students studying in China and Chinese students studying in South Korea can lead the establishment of a healthy culture of communication between the two countries.

中韩建交30周年背景下,中国学界“中韩合作”研究现状及发展趋势研究 - 基于CSSCI期刊文献的可视化分析 -

이지행,张 玉强 한국아시아학회 2022 아시아연구 Vol.25 No.2

The year 2022 marks the 30th anniversary of 30th Anniversary of the Establishment of China-South Korea Diplomatic Relations . Over the past three decades, China-South Korea relations have witnessed rapid development and fruitful exchanges and cooperation in various fields, which have not only brought tangible benefits to both sides but also made positive contributions to regional and world peace and stability. Now, standing at a new starting point, how to push China-South Korea relations to a new level has become a topic of close attention on both sides. Therefore, on the basis of nearly 30 years of research, scholars of China and South Korea put forward a new path and new model for the sustained and stable development of China-South Korea relations and cooperation. In this paper, 191 china-South Korea cooperative research papers published on CSSCI journals in the DATABASE of China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were selected as samples, and literature measurement and content analysiswere used for research and analysis. Based on the preliminary outline of the annual distribution of literature samples, the distribution of major journals, the distribution of authors and their institutions, the paper uses CiteSpace software to sort out the hot topics and the evolution trend of China-South Korea cooperation research. The analysis results show that, on the whole, there are many researches on China-South Korea relations, China-South Korea FTA and The Korean Peninsula issue in Chinese academic circles, with increasing academic attention. However, the research strength is relatively scattered, and a mature and stable cooperation network and academic community has not yet been formed. The researches mainly focus on economic cooperation, and lack cooperation in other fields, as well as cooperation risks and coping strategies. In other words, complex risks and systemic risks in international cooperation are not paid enough attention, which also restricts the further research. The majority of research methods are qualitative research, and the big data analysis with integration of multi-disciplinary research methods still needs to be improved.

사드(THAAD)의 국제정치학 : 중첩적 안보 딜레마와 한국의 전략적 대안

현인택(HYUN In Taek)(玄仁澤) 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회) 2017 신아세아 Vol.24 No.3

본 논문은 사드(THAAD, 고고도미사일방어체계)의 국제정치적 동학을 다룬다. 이론적으로 본 논문은 한국과 중국 사이의 사드 논쟁은 전형적인 안보 딜레마 상황이며 이러한 안보 딜레마 상황은 안보적 이해가 상충하는 국가끼리 일어나며 역사적으로 볼 때 이것이 심해지면 전쟁으로까지 비화하는 국제정치의 일반적인 현상이다. 이러한 안보 딜레마에 직면한 국가들이 어떻게 그러한 안보 딜레마를 해결하기 위해 협력하느냐에 대해 많은 이론적 논의가 있어왔다. 사드의 국제정치학의 경우 이것은 단순히 한국과 중국 사이의 양자게임이 아니라 한국, 중국, 미국 각각의 양자게임이 서로 겹쳐지는 중첩적 안보 딜레마 게임이다. 이러한 안보 딜레마 게임에서 각국은 다양한 수준의 안보 딜레마를 갖게 된다. 본고에서는 이러한 정도를 구분하였다. 또한 안보 딜레마의 비대칭성이 각국의 선택을 결정한다는 것이다. 한국은 안보 딜레마의 비대칭성이 가장 큰 국가로 결국 “배치”를 선택할 수밖에 없다는 것이다. 이러한 선택지에서 한국의 사드에 대한 전략적 대안은 네 가지이다. 첫째, 미국이 좀 더 이 문제에 대해 적극적으로 나서도록 해야 한다는 것이다. 사드는 한·미 “동맹결정”의 산물이기 때문이다. 둘째, 한국이 매우 좁아진 선택지에서 한·중 정상회담과 같은 외교적 현안을 조기에 성사시키려 해서는 안 된다. 무리한 외교 일정 추진으로 한국이 치러야할 대가가 너무 클 수 있고, 알맞은 시기도 아니다. 셋째, 중국의 불합리한 외교적, 경제적 보복에 대해서 일희일비 할 필요가 없다. 어느 정도의 대가를 치를 생각을 하고 감내하면서 해결 노력을 기울일 수밖에 없다. 중국도 한국에 가하는 제재가 언젠가 부메랑이 되어 돌아올 것을 알기 때문에 마구잡이로 무한정 할 수는 없을 것이다. 넷째, 그렇기 때문에 인내하고 기다려야 한다. 한국으로서는 교착상태 게임 같은 것이기 때문에 다른 선택지가 없다. 지금의 한반도 상황으로는 사드보다 더 큰 문제들이 앞에 즐비해 있다. 그런 문제들이 닥쳐올 때 사드 문제는 자연스레 해결될 전기를 찾을 수 있다. 사드의 국제정치학의 전략적 함의는 한국이 매우 근본적인 전략적 선택 앞에 놓여 있다는 사실이다. 첫째, 한국이 근본적으로 북한의 핵과 미사일 문제를 어떻게 대처해야 하는가 하는 문제이다. 둘째, 중국의 발흥으로 인해 변화하는 동아시아 전략 지형에서 한국은 어떠한 전략적 선택을 해야 하는가 하는 문제이다. 북한 핵과 미사일 문제에 대해서는 첫째, 북한 핵무장시 확고한 핵 억지가 이루어지도록 해야 한다. 특히 위기 시 미국 전술핵의 수시 배치 방안이 마련되어야 한다. 둘째, 북한의 미사일 문제에 대해서는 사거리와 중량 제한 둘 다 철폐하는 방향으로 한·미 미사일협정을 재개정해야 한다. 셋째, 북한의 SLBM에 대해서는 핵추진 잠수함의 개발로 맞서야 한다. 넷째, 이 모든 국방 수요를 감당하기 위해 지금의 GDP 2.4% 수준의 국방비를 GDP 3%까지 조속한 시일 내 올리도록 해야 할 것이다. 마지막으로 중국에 대해서는 확고한 한미동맹을 바탕으로 지속적으로 설득하는 ‘인내와 설득 정책’을 통해 대처해 나가야 할 것이다. 결론적으로 본 논문은 현재 동아시아에 안보, 전략적으로 패러다임 전환이 일어나고 있으며 한국이 그 소용돌이의 가장 자리에 자리 잡고 있다고 보고 있다. 사드의 국제정치학은 비단 한국이 이러한 역동적이며 복잡한 국제정치, 전략적 환경 하에서 어떻게 생존해나가느냐, 그리고 할 수 있느냐를 결정하는 ‘리트머스 테스트’라 할 수 있다. 뿐만 아니라 그것은 ‘한국적 전략적 선택’을 향한 긴 장정의 새로운 출발점이라 할 수 있다. Current controversies between South Korea and China over THAAD(Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense) are typical security dilemma situations, which lead to either international conflict or cooperation depending on negotiations. THAAD is not a simple bilateral security dilemma between South Korea and China, however, but a more complex security dilemma among South Korea, China, and the United States. In this complex security dilemma, outcomes will differ depending on the parties’ level of concern. Asymmetries among countries will determine choices on the missile defense system. In this paper, we discern the different levels of concern and asymmetrical outcomes for each country. It concludes that South Korea has no choice but to select ‘deployment,’ no matter what pressure China imposes on Seoul not to do so. What should South Korea do?: 1) South Korea should make the United States be more active on this issue since it is an “alliance decision” made by both South Korea and the U.S.; 2) South Korea should not rush ahead with a South Korea-China summit, since it is too costly and the timing is not right: 3) South Korea should not respond emotionally to China’s irrational diplomatic and economic retaliation, even though they are irrelevant and illogical: and therefore, 4) South Korea has no choice but to be patient and wait until the situation calms down, since for South Korea, it is like a ‘deadlock game.’ Moreover, a more serious storm-North Korea’s nuclear and missile problem-is coming. The international politics of THAAD reveals that South Korea faces fundamental strategic choices and questions: 1) How should it deal with North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, which are the basic causes for the THAAD deployment: 2) How should South Korea deal with a changing strategic environment in East Asia resulting from the rise of China? To deal with North Korea’s nuclear problem, first, South Korea should consider the reintroduction of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in a crisis. Second, South Korea should try to revise the U.S.-Korea Missile Guidelines, aiming at abolishing limitations on both missile range and weight. Third, to deal with North Korea’s SLBM, South Korea should develop a nuclear-propelled submarine. Fourth, to fulfill all these defense needs, South Korea should increase defense expenditure to 3% of GDP in the foreseeable future. Finally, to deal with the rise of China, South Korea should pursue ‘a policy of patience and persuasion’ based on a firm U.S.-Korea alliance. Paradigmatic change is occurring in East Asia and South Korea is at its hot spot. THAAD is not only a litmus test for South Korea on whether it will and can survive in this dynamic and complex international strategic situation. It is also a fresh start down the long-road of South Korea’s strategic choices. This study investigates reorganization of the State Oceanic Administration(SOA) to understand changes in China’s maritime law enforcement, Existing literature simply depicts the contents and outcomes of reorganization or focuses on a single restructuring case; this analysis examines the cause, purpose, and process of the restructuring of SOA. Since the SOA, established in 1964, has become the most significant maritime agency in China, key questions include: what kinds of institutional reorganization has it undergone? Why have its roles and functions varied? This study examines official documents of the Chinese Communist Party, Chinese government, and the People’s Liberation Army Navy to unearth the underlying rationale for and processes of reorganization of SOA. The study concludes that SOA, on behalf of the State Council, was controlled by the PLAN in the early period of its establishment, was shifted to the State Scientific and Technological Commission in 1980, and moved again, to the Ministry of Land and Resources of China in 1998.

하노이 북미 정상회담 이후 북중·한중 관계 변화와 한반도 평화체제 구축

이재영 경남대학교 극동문제연구소 2020 한국과 국제정치 Vol.36 No.3

After the summit between North Korea and the United States in Hanoi in February 2019, despite several summits and high-level talks between South Korea and China, strategic cooperation has not been deepened due to major obstacles such as US factors and THAAD issues. On the other hand, after five summit meetings and President Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea, the traditional friendship between North Korea and China has been recovered. However, North Korea's economic dependence on China has risen. South Korea should not only seek China's active role and cooperation by strengthening diplomatic and security cooperation with China, but also bring North Korea back to U.S.-North Korea denuclearization negotiation table by utilizing this restoration of North Korea-China relations. In conclusion, in order to establish a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, we must promote a “constructive parallel” between the alliance and partnership by strengthening the complementarity between the ROK-US alliance and the ROK-China partnership.

한중관계에서 북한 요인이 주는 전략적 함수관계 연구

주재우 중국지역학회 2022 중국지역연구 Vol.9 No.3

The paper explores the impact North Korea as a factor on the ebb and flow of South Korea-China relations during the past thirty years since the normalization of the relationship in 1992. Aside from its respective domestic politico-social factors, North Korea as one of the outside factors affects the development of the bilateral relationship of the South and China. The North apparently needs to survive against any negative spinoffs possibly engendering from close relationship of the two and compelled to intervene to distance the two for its own interests. The power structure of the relationships of the states in the Northeast Asia dictates that each country’s external relations must be looked at in a triangular relations for its respective bilateral alliance relationship. South Korea and China are subject to this demand for its alliance with the United States and the North, respectively. The paper hopes to offer a base that will facilitate the predictability of North Korea’s behavior in the relationship between the South and China. 본 연구는 지난 30년 동안 북한이 한중관계의 부침(浮沈)에 한 요인으로 어떠한, 어떻게 영향을 미쳤는지를 분석하였다. 한중관계의 부침에는 한중 각국의 국내정치·사회적 요인의 영향도 있었지만 대외적으로 북한의 영향력을 배제할 수 없다. 이는 남북관계, 북중관계에서 생존하려는 북한이 한중관계의 발전으로 입을 수 있는 부정적인 영향 및 결과를 최소화하려는 생전전략에서 기인한다고 본 문은 가정한다. 특히 여기에 북한 핵문제로 인한 미국의 요인도 추가되면서 한미관계와 미중관계가 북한의 대외 행위에 영향을 주었다. 그러면서 한중관계에서 북한은 미국 요인의 영향에 따라 변화하는 남북관계와 북중관계를 자신의 안보이익에 이용하려는 전략적 계산에 따라 한중관계의 부침에 영향력을 발휘하였다. 따라서 본문은 이 같이 다양한 3국간의 역학관계를 이른바 ‘삼단논법’의 논리에서 조망하고 다양한 3국 관계 속에서 북한이 한중관계의 부침에 미친 영향을 분석하고자한다. 이를 통해 3국간의 역학관계의 속성을 파악함으로써 한중관계와 북한 간의 상호작용이 보다 예측 가능한 기초를 제공하는 것이 본 연구의 목적이다.