민주주의 이행과정에서 군부의 정치적 퇴진: 한국과 인도네시아의 사례 비교

이동윤,김상근 사단법인 한국평화연구학회 2012 평화학연구 Vol.13 No.3

This study compared political withdrawal processes of South Korean and Indonesian military in democratic transition after democratization. Military authoritarianism, which was appeared through political intervention of military such as military coup, is democratized in according to dynamic relation between military and civil society for political legitimacy. And, political withdrawal and depoliticalization of military is understanding about its type and path in two dimension of jurisdiction and scope of role. As a research result, South Korea was reinforced the jurisdiction to military by civil control through military reform, and scope of military role was reduced to original military role in security field. But, Indonesia was not formed civil control to military smoothly by failure of military reform, and role of military remained in politcial field as well as in socio-economic field. In conclusion, the different path of military's political withdrawal in two countries was conducted by dynamic relations between military and civil society, and socio-political environment in each country. 이 연구는 민주화 이후 민주주의 이행과정에서 한국과 인도네시아 군부의 정치적 퇴진과정을 비교하였다. 군사쿠데타와 같이 군부의 정치적 개입을 통해 발생하는 권위주의체제는 정치적 정당성을 둘러싼 군부와 시민사회 사이의 역학관계가 변화함에 따라 민주화가 이루어지며, 군부의 정치적 퇴진과 탈정치화는 군부의 ‘관할권’(jurisdiction)과 ‘역할 범위’(scope of role)의 두 범주에 따라 그 유형과 경로를 파악할 수 있다. 연구 결과, 한국은 민주화 이후 급격한 군부개혁을 통해 군부에 대한 관할권이 시민통제로 전환되고, 군부의 역할 범위 또한 군부 본연의 군사․안보 영역으로 축소되었다. 그러나 인도네시아는 군부개혁의 실패로 군부에 대한 시민통제가 원활하게 수행되지 못하고 있으며, 정치 영역뿐만 아니라 경제․사회 영역에 있어서도 군부의 역할이 잔존하고 있다. 결과적으로 두 국가에서 민주화 이후 군부의 정치적 퇴진경로는 군부와 시민사회 사이의 역학관계와 국가가 지니는 정치․사회적 환경의 차이에 따라 서로 다른 경로가 유도되었다.

‘정의로운 전환(Just Transition)’과 분배 갈등: 정치경제적 접근의 함의와 가능성

김현경 한국세계지역학회 2024 世界地域硏究論叢 Vol.42 No.1

The issue of climate change in political science has mainly been addressed at the international or global level, viewing environmental sustainability as a public good, and focusing on why intergovernmental cooperation to address climate change has often failed. However, it is necessary not only to analyze climate change at the global level but also to examine them at the domestic level, focusing on the conflicts of interest among various actors. With the widespread recognition that solving climate issues and transitioning to sustainable energy are inseparable, the recently emerged concept of 'Just Transition' is a suitable topic for approaching through frameworks developed in international political economy and comparative political economy. This paper explores how the issue of just transition intersects with important research in international political economy such as trade politics, as well as with social protection and welfare politics in comparative political economy. It argues that analyzing political conflicts surrounding just transition from a political-economic perspective is essential to establish effective governance for climate change mitigation.

Democratization and Politics of Trasformismo: Explaining the 1990 Three-Party Merger in South Korea

권혁용 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2017 분석과 대안 Vol.1 No.2

Research on democratic transitions has relatively ignored the question of why some countries experience a regressive form of political pacts, while others do not. This paper develops a simple game-theoretic model to explain the phenomenon of collusive pacts in the process of democratization. Trasformismo is a term that refers to a system of political exchange based on informal clientelistic politics. The existing studies of the politics of trasformismo have emphasized the timing of industrialization and the tradition of strong state as conditions of the politics of trasformismo. However, not every late industrializers and not every strong states experienced some variants of collusive political pacts in their trajectories of democratization. In this paper, I contend that the politics of trasformismo is rather a generalizable pattern of political elites’ behavior under particular circumstances. By developing a simple game theoretic model, this paper suggests the conditions under which political actors are likely to collude to a regressive form of political pacts. The model shows that the likelihood of collusion to a regressive form of political pacts is a function of a set of parameters. First, a higher level of incumbency advantage in electoral competition is likely to be associated with a higher probability of collusive political pacts. Second, a higher degree of the monopoly of political representation of political parties without a close link with a variety of societal forces is likely to induce collusive behavior among politicians. Third, the ruling party leader’s expectations about the likelihood of a safe extrication are related to collusive political pacts. This paper then engages in a case study of the 1990 three-party merger in South Korea. The 1990 Korean case is interesting in that the ruling party created a new party after having merged with two opposition parties. This case can be considered a result of political maneuver in a context of democratization. The case study suggests the empirical relevance of the game-theoretic model. As the game of trasformismo and the case study of the 1990 three-party merger in South Korea have shown, the collusive political pact was neither determined by a certain stage of economic development nor by a particular cultural systems. Rather, it was a product of the art of trasformismo based on party leaders’ rational calculations of the expected likelihood of taking governing power. Research on democratic transitions has relatively ignored the question of why some countries experience a regressive form of political pacts, while others do not. This paper develops a simple game-theoretic model to explain the phenomenon of collusive pacts in the process of democratization. Trasformismo is a term that refers to a system of political exchange based on informal clientelistic politics. The existing studies of the politics of trasformismo have emphasized the timing of industrialization and the tradition of strong state as conditions of the politics of trasformismo. However, not every late industrializers and not every strong states experienced some variants of collusive political pacts in their trajectories of democratization. In this paper, I contend that the politics of trasformismo is rather a generalizable pattern of political elites’ behavior under particular circumstances. By developing a simple game theoretic model, this paper suggests the conditions under which political actors are likely to collude to a regressive form of political pacts. The model shows that the likelihood of collusion to a regressive form of political pacts is a function of a set of parameters. First, a higher level of incumbency advantage in electoral competition is likely to be associated with a higher probability of collusive political pacts. Second, a higher degree of the monopoly of political representation of political parties without a close link with a variety of societal forces is likely to induce collusive behavior among politicians. Third, the ruling party leader’s expectations about the likelihood of a safe extrication are related to collusive political pacts. This paper then engages in a case study of the 1990 three-party merger in South Korea. The 1990 Korean case is interesting in that the ruling party created a new party after having merged with two opposition parties. This case can be considered a result of political maneuver in a context of democratization. The case study suggests the empirical relevance of the game-theoretic model. As the game of trasformismo and the case study of the 1990 three-party merger in South Korea have shown, the collusive political pact was neither determined by a certain stage of economic development nor by a particular cultural systems. Rather, it was a product of the art of trasformismo based on party leaders’ rational calculations of the expected likelihood of taking governing power.

The Paths of German Energy Transition: An Institutional Analysis

Heungkoo Lee,Jae-Seung Lee 서울대학교 국제학연구소 2019 Journal of International and Area Studies Vol.26 No.2

The Germany energy transition has been enabled by continuous institutional evolution. The institutional development has continued while party coalitions have repeatedly changed. This study analyzes the institutional progress of the German energy transition under different political settings and extrinsic incidents. Institutional path generation of German energy transition was actualized by political and social responses to the global energy crises as well as the Chernobyl nuclear accident. The participation of the Green Party in the ruling coalition, with the introduction of EFA, played a significant role in launching the energy transition. The reinforcement of this institutional path was formed due to the replacement of the EFA with the EEG in 2000, under a strong political will for sustainable energy development. The Fukushima nuclear accident, and the continued support from the political coalition contributed to the institutional path maintenance for this energy transition. The progressive social and political environment changes in energy transition were prior conditions for setting up institutional strategies. External impacts were prime movers for the implementation of institutional methods or revisions. The institutional durability, in the face of critical alterations of internal and external circumstance, has provided a successful path to energy transition.

지속가능성 전환의 관점에서 본 서울시 정책 평가 : ‘공유도시’와 에너지 전환 정책을 중심으로

김민재,박순열,김지혜,안새롬,구도완 한국환경사회학회 2018 환경사회학연구 ECO Vol.22 No.2

This article aims to analyze sharing city and energy transition policies of Metropolitan Seoul in terms of the theory of sustainability transition. The concept of sustainability transition provides a framework to analyze how sustainability oriented long-term transition emerges from the existing social institutions and incumbents and who/how steers this process. For solving environmental challenges as systemic problems, system/regime transition for sustainability is needed and reflexive governance as well in this process. Especially, with these reflexive interventions, the consideration of politics of transition is essential. This paper analyzes cases of ‘Nanum Car (car sharing)’, ‘Seoul Bike (public bike)’ as ‘sharing city’ policy and ‘One less nuclear power plant (OLNPP)’, ‘Energy self-reliant villages’ as energy transition policy. We found out that reflexive governance and transition politics of car sharing were not successful, but public bike policy had a potential for transition to sustainable transportation system. These two cases, however, provided little potential for new mode of politics of transition. OLNPP and ‘Energy self-reliant villages’ have made an opportunity for system/regime transition through making vision of post-nuclear system and achieving ecological and social justice goals. In terms of governance and politics of transition, the latter two cases made a new mode of sustainability governance and power relations. 이 글은 지속가능성 전환의 개념과 이론을 살펴보고 지속가능성 전환의 관점에서 박원순 서울시정의 ‘공유도시’와 에너지 전환 관련 정책을 평가하는데 목적이 있다. 지속가능성 전환 개념은 현존하는 사회 제도와 이해관계 속에서 어떻게 지속가능성을 지향하는 장기간의 전환 과정이 일어나고 이 과정을 누가 어떻게 조정할 수 있는지를 탐구하기 위한 개념이다. 체계적 문제로서 환경 문제의 해결을 위해서는 지속가능성을 목표로 하는 체계와 레짐의 전환이 필요하며, 지속가능성 전환 과정에는 성찰적 거버넌스가 필요하다. 특히 이러한 성찰적 개입에 있어 전환의 정치에 대한 고려가 필수적이다. 이 글은 서울시의 ‘공유도시’ 정책 가운데 나눔카와 따릉이, 에너지 정책으로서 원전하나줄이기 정책과 성대골 에너지자립마을 사례를 분석한다. 지속 가능성 전환의 관점에서 나눔카는 전환 정책의 성공 사례라고 보기 어려운 반면 따릉이는 그 자체의 성과는 크지 않지만 자동차 중심의 교통체계를 지속가능한 교통체계로 전환시킬 수 있는 잠재력이 큰 정책이라고 평가할 수 있다. 그러나 두 정책 모두 새로운 전환 정치를 창출해 내는 힘은 부족하다고 볼 수 있다. 원전하나줄이기 정책과 성대골 마을 사례는 생태적 지속가능성을 높이는 데 어느 정도 성공했고 사회적 정의와 포용을 높였을 뿐만 아니라 원전을 줄일 수 있다는 믿음을 가능하게 했다는 점에서 체계와 레짐을 전환할 수 있는 가능성을 열었다고 평가할 수 있다. 두 사례의 경우, 거버넌스와 전환 정치의 관점에서 볼 때, 지속가능성 전환의 거버넌스와 새로운 정치적 권력관계의 형성이 이루어졌다고 평가할 수 있다.

체제 전환기 루마니아의 정치, 경제, 사회적 화해와 상생

김정환 한국외국어대학교(글로벌캠퍼스) 동유럽발칸연구소 2022 동유럽발칸연구 Vol.46 No.2

After the 1989 revolution, new politicians in the transition period who had to adapt to unfamiliar political atmosphere shared three visions for the future of the country. The first was the restoration of pre-communist history and politics, the second was the declaration of liberalism, and the last was the realization of a social project and political design for this purpose. However, the political situation in the 1990s was grim due to the deterioration of the National Salvation Front (Frontul Salvării Naţionale) and the unrest in the university square, and the new world was slowly approaching because of the old communists. On one hand, Romania in transition had the dual goal of creating representative democracy systems and practices, and establishing a free market economy system on the other hand. This double transformation was premised on the introduction and settlement of neoliberal ideology according to policy decisions between ‘representative democracy’ and ‘market economy’, and social consensus on democratization and transition to a market economy. A successful transition was a task given to president Ion Iliescu, who had to lead at a major turning point in 1990~1996, but the historical reality was far more complex and difficult than could have been anticipated and programmed. From president Emil Constantinescu, who made the first democratic transfer of power in 1996, to Prime Minister Adrian Năstase in 2002, the political declarations and experiments of ‘the end of the transition’ and ‘the beginning of a new era’ were repeated over and over again. Society in the transition had to abandon the paternalistic and authoritarian mindset left behind by the communist ideology and dictatorship of the past. The most important change is the transition from a monolithic system such as a dictatorship to a plural system. Free access to mass media, the opening of the free movement right, and the promise of restoration to Europe have led to a radical acceleration of social change. In that sense, EU accession in 2007 can be regarded as the end of the transition to the post-communist regime. Romania was officially linked with Europe again politically and economically, as it had been before socialism. This long historical process suggests how the experience of communism affected Romanians’ worldview and how real their integration into Europe was. 1989년 혁명 이후, 익숙하지 않은 방식에 적응해야 했던 체제 전환기 정치인들은 국가의 미래에 관한 세 가지 비전을 공유하였다. 첫 번째는 공산주의 이전의 역사와 정치 상황으로의 복원이고, 두 번째는 자유주의의 천명 그리고 마지막은 이를 위한 사회 공학적 프로젝트의 실현이었다. 하지만 구국전선(Frontul Salvării Naţionale)의 변질과 대학광장의 소요로 1990년대 정치 상황은 암울하였고, 구공산주의자들에 의해 새로운 세상은 더디게 다가오고 있었다. 체제 전환의 루마니아는 한편으로는 대의 민주주의 제도와 관행을 만들고, 다른 한편으로는 시장 경제 체제를 수립해야 하는 이중 목표를 동시에 가지고 있었다. 이 이중 변환은 ‘대의 민주주의’와 ‘시장 경제’ 사이의 정책 결정에 따른 신자유주의 이념의 도입과 정착, 민주화와 시장 경제로의 전환에 관한 사회적 합의를 전제로 하고 있었다. 성공적인 체제 전환은 1990~1996년의 중요한 고비를 이끌어야 했던 일리에스쿠(Ion Iliescu)에게 주어진 과제였으나, 역사적 현실은 예상하고 프로그래밍할 수 있었던 것보다 훨씬 더 복잡했고, 예측할 수 없는 비공식적 규칙이 난무하였다. 1996년 권력에 대한 최초의 민주적 이양이 이루어졌던 콘스탄티네스쿠(Emil Constantinescu) 대통령을 시작으로 2002년 너스타세(Adrian Năstase) 수상에 이르기까지 계속해서 ‘과도기의 끝’과 ‘새시대의 시작’이라는 정치적 선언과 시행착오가 반복되었다. 체제 전환기 사회는 과거 공산주의 이념과 독재가 남긴 온정주의적이고 권위주의적인 사고방식을 버려야 했다. 가장 중요한 변화는 독재와 같은 단원 체제에서 다원 체제로의 전환이다. 대중매체에 대한 자유로운 접근과 이동권의 개방 그리고 유럽으로의 복원 약속은 사회 변화의 급진적인 가속화를 가져왔다. 그런 의미에서 2007년 EU 가입은 포스트 공산주의 체제 전환의 끝으로 간주 될 수 있을 것이다. 루마니아는 사회주의 이전에 그랬던 것처럼 정치적으로나 경제적으로 다시 유럽과 공식적으로 연결되었다. 길었던 이 역사적 과정은 공산주의 경험이 루마니아인의 세계관에 어떤 영향을 미쳤는지, 그리고 유럽에 대한 그들의 통합이 얼마나 실질적인지를 시사하고 있다.

Democratization and Politics of Trasformismo : Explaining the 1990 Three-Party Merger in South Korea

Kwon, Hyeokyong Korea Consensus Institute(KCI) 2017 Analyses & alternatives Vol.1 No.2

Research on democratic transitions has relatively ignored the question of why some countries experience a regressive form of political pacts, while others do not. This paper develops a simple game-theoretic model to explain the phenomenon of collusive pacts in the process of democratization. Trasformismo is a term that refers to a system of political exchange based on informal clientelistic politics. The existing studies of the politics of trasformismo have emphasized the timing of industrialization and the tradition of strong state as conditions of the politics of trasformismo. However, not every late industrializers and not every strong states experienced some variants of collusive political pacts in their trajectories of democratization. In this paper, I contend that the politics of trasformismo is rather a generalizable pattern of political elites' behavior under particular circumstances. By developing a simple game theoretic model, this paper suggests the conditions under which political actors are likely to collude to a regressive form of political pacts. The model shows that the likelihood of collusion to a regressive form of political pacts is a function of a set of parameters. First, a higher level of incumbency advantage in electoral competition is likely to be associated with a higher probability of collusive political pacts. Second, a higher degree of the monopoly of political representation of political parties without a close link with a variety of societal forces is likely to induce collusive behavior among politicians. Third, the ruling party leader's expectations about the likelihood of a safe extrication are related to collusive political pacts. This paper then engages in a case study of the 1990 three-party merger in South Korea. The 1990 Korean case is interesting in that the ruling party created a new party after having merged with two opposition parties. This case can be considered a result of political maneuver in a context of democratization. The case study suggests the empirical relevance of the game-theoretic model. As the game of trasformismo and the case study of the 1990 three-party merger in South Korea have shown, the collusive political pact was neither determined by a certain stage of economic development nor by a particular cultural systems. Rather, it was a product of the art of trasformismo based on party leaders' rational calculations of the expected likelihood of taking governing power.

Consensus Modality in Nepal`s Transition: Accommodating Parties and Shrinking Democratic Spaces

( Rajib Timalsina ) 서울대학교 통일평화연구원 2017 Asian Journal of Peacebuilding Vol.5 No.1

Nepal is in a long political transition. This article focuses on the complex practices and concepts of political consensus in Nepal, and an effort is made to capture the political dynamics of different stakeholders of consensus politics with insights into the complex political reality. This article argues that the practice of consensus has contributed to easy resource distribution, containing overt violence, and accommodating diverse political parties, and made more progress in consolidating peace than in promoting democracy. Established democratic norms were monopolized by a few leaders in the name of consensus, sometimes even leading to political tensions. Thus, the consociation model falters in Nepal and the proper adoption of a democratic contestation model may be a solution for ongoing socio-political tensions.

체제 전환기 크로아티아 엘리트 재편 : ‘엘리트 순환’과 ‘엘리트 재생산’ 양상과 결과를 중심으로

권혁재(Hyok Jae Kwon) 한국외국어대학교 외국학종합연구센터 동유럽·발칸연구소 2021 동유럽발칸연구 Vol.45 No.4

크로아티아 역사에서 동유럽 공산주의 정권의 몰락과 체제 변환은 ‘거대한 전환’이었다. 공산주의 정권으로부터 시장 자본주의;민주주의로의 전환에서 크로아티아는 새로운 유럽의 일원으로 재탄생해야 했다. 대규모 사회 전환이나 체제 전환에는 자연스럽게 정치;사회;경제 엘리트들의 대규모 재편이 발생한다. 혁명적 체제 전환에서 엘리트 재편에 관심을 두는 이유는 엘리트 재편의 결과가 해당 국가나 사회의 방향성을 판단하는 중요한 척도 중 하나이기 때문이다. 새로운 체제는 누군가에게는 새로운 질서에 적응하고 변신해야 하는 생존의 문제이고;누군가에게는 패배만이 있는 도태의 시작이고;또 누군가에게는 새로운 기득권을 쟁취할 기회일 수도 있다. 체제 전환 이후 동유럽 국가에서 발생하였던 엘리트 재편은 한 영역이 아닌 사회 전체 영역에서 발생한 장기적 변동의 시작점이었다. 이 연구는 ‘공산주의 정권 권력 엘리트 계층이 체제 전환기 피지배 계층으로 전락하고;이전 피지배 계층이 권력 계층 지위를 획득했는가? 어떤 계층이 새로운 지배 엘리트로 새롭게 편입되었는가?’를 체제 전환기 신 엘리트와 구 엘리트의 내용적 비교 분석을 통해 크로아티아 엘리트 재편의 양상과 특징을 설명했다. 혁명적 체제 전환기 크로아티아 권력 엘리트의 순환은 매우 제한적이었다. 크로아티아에서는 역동적이고 단계적 발전의 엘리트 재편은 전쟁과 독재로 인해 발생하지 못했다. 크로아티아의 진정한 민주화와 체제 전환은 독재가 종식되는 ‘크로아티아 2차 체제 전환’ 시기인 2000년 이후에나 진행된다. In the history of Croatia;the collapse) of communism and the ‘Transition’ in Eastern Europe were ‘great transformation’. The transition from the socialist federation system forced Croatia to show itself as a new member of Europe. It is common for large scale social or system transformation to generate huge changes in political;social and economic elites. The reason we are interested in the elite change in such a transitional society is that the elite change is an important measure for understanding the social characteristics of the country or group. A new system may be a matter of survival to adapt and transform to the new order for some people;the beginning of a cull that only defeat remains for others;and an opportunity for some others to win a new vested interest. The ‘elite circulation’ or ‘elite replacement’ that occurred in Middle and Eastern European countries after the Transition was the starting point of long term shift not in one area but in the entire society. After the Transition;did the communist power elite fall into the dominated class and the former dominated class acquire the status of the power class? What class has been newly formed as a new dominant elite? The composition of elites before and after the Transition was compared and analyzed to identify the patterns and characteristics of the changes in Croatian elites. The analysis showed that the power elite cycle of Croatia was very limited. The reorganization of the elite during the transition period;which were expected to bring dynamic and phased evolution;did not occur in Croatia. It can be evaluated that the real democratization and system transition did not take place until the “Croatian 2th System Transition” in 2000;when the dictatorship of Croatia ended.

체제전환기 중·러 엘리트 정치 구조 변화에 대한 비교분석: 다른 과정, 같은 결과

주장환,연담린 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2022 분석과 대안 Vol.6 No.3

This study is focused on changes of the state and the political elite structure during the transition period. Specifically, it compares and analyzes changes in the structure of political elites in China and Russia, which are representative countries in the transition period. An analysis period is Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping in China and Putin in Russia. During this period, both countries proceeded with regime transition in different directions and reached the same goal. The analytic framework is a types of oligarchy with two main concepts: the role of the oligarchy in the exercise of coercion and the essence of governance. As a result of the analysis, interestingly, the structures of elite politics of these countries, which had different directions of regime transition, were changing in a similar direction. In other words, it changed from a ‘ruling’ oligarchy to a ‘sultanistic’. The results of this study are as follows: from the same starting line of a socialism and planned economy, the elite political structure of Russia, which has transitioned to a capitalism, and the elite political structure of China, which has transitioned to the socialist market economy(SME), is changing in a similar direction.