텍스트 마이닝을 활용한 인구감소와 지방소멸 연구동향 분석 및 함의

박미경,이홍재,권준이 한국지식정보기술학회 2023 한국지식정보기술학회 논문지 Vol.18 No.5

Population decline and changes in population structure are one of serious social problems. Especially in local areas, the issue of regional extinction is becoming prominent as not only natural decline but also social decline is exacerbated. Therefore, this study attempted to analyze population decline and local extinction research trends and suggest policy implications using text mining techniques. The data for analysis are 553 research papers related to ‘population decline’ and ‘local extinction’ published from 2002 to October 2022. As a result of the TF analysis, frequencies of terms such as region, population, policy, population decline, and city was high. As a result of TF-IDF analysis, terms such as city, region, vacant houses, local governments, and population appeared in the order. As a result of N-gram analysis, the focus was on diagnosing of social phenomena such as demographic structure-change, population decline-aging, and prescriptions such as problem-solving and policy-current affairs. As a result of the CONCOR analysis, five clusters were identified: population decline and local extinction factors, industry/job factors, education factors, residence factors, and financial factors. Based on the analysis results, the implications of reducing the possibility of population policy delay, a multidimensional and comprehensive understanding of population decline and local extinction, and consideration of regional characteristics when implementing population decline response policies are presented.

텍스트마이닝을 이용한 인구감소·지방소멸 연구 동향 메타분석 및 연구 방향

김동환 대한부동산학회 2024 大韓不動産學會誌 Vol.42 No.2

우리나라는 몇 년 전부터 인구감소가 심각한 사회 문제이며 국가의 운명이 걸린 문제로 대두되었으며, 특히 지방에서는 인구감소로 인해 지방소멸 문제가 더욱 심각한 문제가 되고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 인구감소와 지방소멸에 대한 지금까지의 연구 동향을 분석해서 앞으 로의 인구감소나 지방소멸에 대한 연구 방향을 제시하는 분석을 실시했다. 분석 대상 데이터는 2003년 1월 1일부터 2024년 3월 31일까지 한국연구재단에 게재된 '인구감소' 논문 404편과 '지방소멸' 논문 141편, 총 545편의 논문을 scraping 해서 텍스트 마이닝 기법에 의해서 실시했다. 연구결과로는 중요도를 분석한 TF-IDF 분석 결과 중심, 변화, 인구, 지방소멸, 인구구조 등의 단어가 중요한 것으로 나타났다. 사회연결망 분석(SNA)에서는 연결 중심성(DC), 매개 중심성(BC), 근접 중심성(CC), 위세 중심성(EC)을 활용하여 분석했으며, 분석결과 인구, 감소, 지역, 변화, 한국 등의 단어로 분석되었다. 4개의 토픽 분석에서 인구감소는 인구, 감소, 변화가, 지방소멸은 인구, 지역, 감소가, 저출산은 인구, 지역, 한국이, 그리고 고령화는 지역, 지방자치단체, 인구감소가 중요한 토픽으로 분석되었다. 분석결과를 기초로 향후 연구 방향은 결혼 및 출산에 대한 연구, 청년시대에 대한 연구, 노인세대 및 고령화, 지방자치단체 발전방안, 인구감소와 지방소멸의 원인과 대책에 관한 연구가 더 활발히 진행되어야 한다는 것으로 제안되었다. In South Korea, population decline has emerged as a serious social issue in recent years, posing a significant challenge to the nation's future. Particularly in rural areas, population decline has exacerbated concerns about regional extinction. Hence, this study aims to analyze existing research trends on population decline and regional extinction, with the intention of proposing future research directions. According to the results of the TF-IDF analysis, key terms such as centrality, change, population, regional extinction, and population structure were deemed significant. Social Network Analysis(SNA) revealed that population decline was closely associated with terms like population, locality, and decline, while regional extinction was linked to locality, issues, and population. Topic analysis identified population decline topics such as population, decline, and change, and regional extinction topics such as population, locality, and decline. Additionally, low birth rate topics included population, locality, South Korea, and aging topics included locality, local government, and population decline. Based on these findings, future research directions include studies on marriage and childbirth, research on the era of youth, studies on the elderly and aging, development strategies for local governments, and research on the causes and countermeasures of population decline and regional extinction.

지속가능한 도시관리를 위한 스마트 축소 모형 연구(Ⅰ)

박창석,신지영,송지연,박현주,이재경,송원경,김휘문,이은석,최희선 한국환경연구원 2020 사업보고서 Vol.2020 No.-

Ⅰ. Introduction 1. Background and necessity of research ❏ Due to population decline and low growth, changes in urban policy and eco-friendly smart shrinkage policy are necessary. ❏ A decrease in urban population causes various effects on urban economy and finance, as well as changes in land use. ㅇ The decrease in city population led to the aggravation of financial conditions of many cities due to low tax revenues and high maintenance cost of infrastructure. ㅇ UN SDGs and UN Habitats emphasize that sustainable cities are the basis for human prosperity and survival and request plans for responding to socioeconomic changes and innovation in technology such as smart shrinkage. ❏ Smart shrinkage is an urgent task in government policies, including the Fifth Comprehensive National Plan (2020~2040) and the Fifth Comprehensive National Land Use Plan (2020~2040). 2. Purpose of research ❏ This study aims to analyze the characteristics of shrinking cities in Korea compared to those abroad and to understand the mechanism of the shrinking city phenomenon. ㅇ A model of shrinking city will be built based on the mechanism of the phenomenon to observe the residential space usage, accessibility of public services, and financial change in the shrinking cities. ❏ Also, this study aims to prepare the basis for sustainable cities that can improve quality of life through smart shrinkage and to present policies that can realize the plan. Ⅱ. Concept and Case Studies of Shrinking City 1. Shrinking city phenomenon and smart shrinkage ❏ Various research projects use population decrease as an indicator for shrinking city phenomenon. Smartshrinkage is an approach that aims to shrink the city in accordance with the decline in population and industrial structures. ㅇ Smart shrinkage is a sustainable plan that can increase quality of life and establish a virtuous cycle between society, economy, and environment in shrinking cities by vacating overdeveloped areas and rearranging essential structures. ❏ Converting to a paradigm that pursues shrinkage to a reasonable size and stabilization of the city centered on maximizing quality of life is necessary. 2. Foreign cases and efforts to resolve problems ❏ Countries such as Germany, the USA, and Japan readjusted the landscape based on the reduced scale of the city to fulfil their smart shrinkage strategies. ㅇ Japan is developing shrinkage strategy focusing on centralization and decentralization of base areas and public transportation networks; the USA is developing ‘choose and focus’ strategy for the right downsizing; and Germany is developing active policy measures including strengthening urban centers, improving residential environments, and rearranging infrastructure. ❏ It is necessary to prepare a smart shrinkage policy in response to the population decline and disappearance of housing and to take preemptive actions that reflect regional characteristics, as well as consider land use and environmental and ecological approaches for sustainable city management. ㅇ Plans to connect bases that consider regional characteristics and policies to induce the influx of new residents are required. ㅇ Systematic strategy and frequent monitoring that can bring positive environmental, physical, and economic changes are required. Ⅲ. Current Status and Characteristics of Shrinking Cities in Korea 1. Trends and prospects of population decline, territorial space, and regional extinction ❏ The total population of Korea and the proportion of the relative population in non-capital regions are rapidly declining. ㅇ According to the 2019 Statistics Office’s population outlook, the point of population decline has been brought forward to 2028. ㅇ If the current trend continues, the natural population growth will reach its maximum in 2021. ❏ Underpopulated and unpopulated areas are continually increasing and the trend toward population polarization between spaces is expected. ❏ The impact of population decline is not regionally symmetric and the risk of extinction by region is increasing. 2. Analysis of the effects and major factors of the shrinking city phenomenon ❏ Analysis was conducted to find out how the continuous population decline, city shrinkage, and urban function decline affect social, economic, and environmental factors. ㅇ By grouping regions according to population change, the influence on each factor was analyzed and then correlation analysis was conducted. ❏ The increase in the aging index and the effects of aging are the cause of the shrinking cities in Korea. ㅇ As aging accelerates, it is interpreted as having a negative (-) effect on various factors. ❏ The characteristics of city shrinkage are as follows: the convenience of living is reduced due to the reduction of urban services and infrastructure and the attractiveness of the region decreases due to the disappearance of housing and the decline in social relations. ❏ It is necessary to improve climate environment focusing on regional properties, present spatial design solutions, and prepare differentiation strategies. Ⅳ. Model Development and Application for Smart Shrinkage and Policy Implications 1. Model development and application ❏ The target sites were selected based on related variables such as population change, regional economic conditions, and quality of life of urban residents (Jeonju and Jeongeup). ❏ Development of a vacant home probability prediction model based on the Multi-level Logistic Regression Model (MLRM) ㅇ A spatial pattern model was designed in consideration of the current state of the building, the characteristics of the land where the building is located, and the demographic characteristics of the region. ㅇ In both Jeonju and Jeongeup, the probability of vacancy was higher if the proportion of elderly population was higher, the building has aged more, and when the building was made out of blocks or wood. ❏ Ecological network analysis based on the spatial graph theory ㅇ The spatial graph theory (Conefor) that can secure a quantitative standard of landscape connectivity was selected and the importance of ecological connectivity was evaluated according to the scenario of the current vacant lots turning into green spaces. ㅇ By prioritizing the connectivity of areas with a high probability of vacant homes, these areas can be evaluated as having great potential value that can improve connectivity in underdeveloped areas. 2. Policy suggestion for sustainable smart shrinkage ❏ It is necessary to continuously manage vacant homes through the establishment of an integrated platform, promote voluntary participation and consensus of the citizens in the policy making process, and strengthen awareness of climate ecology. ❏ Constructing a spatial design inventory by categorizing the spatial, socioeconomic, and environmental problems brought about by population decline can provide selectable spatial solutions in each future scenario. ❏ Smart shrinkage strategy that considers climate resilience can preferentially reduce the climate impact in regions that are highly vulnerable to climate change and can convert areas created due to shrinkage into a space of opportunity (cool roof, cool pavement, cooling road, expansion of green space, etc.). ❏ It is necessary to reinforce environmental plans in consideration of smart shrinkage and to promote vacant home maintenance as a project to transform our cities into climate-resilient, green cities. Ⅴ. Conclusion ❏ Smart shrinkage is a growth strategy for new opportunities that increases public interest and values of sustainable city such as quality of life and climate resilience and it is necessary to strengthen not only the approach of urban planning but also the approach that considers climate environment. ❏ It is necessary to build a smart shrinkage model applicable at the level of urban spatial environment planning considering information on illegal buildings, detailed information on buildings in general, variables in consideration of regional characteristics, distribution of urban green space, the level of climate risks, and accessibility to residents. ❏ It is expected that the result of this study could be used in making policy decisions for sustainable city management, such as when deciding whether to maintain empty houses from the perspective of urban services, rearrange them as climate-ecological space to provide environmental /public services from the perspective of climate ecology, or to promote their social/cultural values.

지역소멸 방지를 위한 법제 검토

김희진 한국비교공법학회 2023 공법학연구 Vol.24 No.1

Since November 2019, South Korea has experienced a population dead-cross phenomenon in which the number of deaths is greater than the number of births, leading to a natural population decline. The total fertility rate is the lowest among OECD countries, and as of the end of 2020, the total population of Korea has decreased, and it can be said that we have entered an era of full-fledged population decline. On October 18, 2021, the Ministry of Public Administration and Security designated and announced a declining population area, and on June 10, 2022, enacted a special law to support declining population areas, and from January 1, 2023, a support system to respond to the problem of population decline was established. It provides comprehensive support in various fields such as jobs, housing, transportation, culture, education, and medical care. The Special Act on the Population Reduction Regional Support Law is highly regarded as the introduction of the concept of living population and the establishment of a regional -led building plan. However, it does not define the application for designation and cancellation procedures for designation of the population reduction area. In support and special cases, the support for agricultural and fishing villages was not clear and many declarative provisions, and it is still necessary to complement that there is a lack of differentiation between existing similar laws. There are many reasons why the population of a region is declining, but one of them is that the region does not have its own characteristics. In order to express the characteristics of the region well, decentralization, which transfers the authority of the government to local governments, is necessary. When complete decentralization is realized, local governments can independently carry out self-government based on autonomy by making use of their own characteristics and strengths, escaping from dependence on state support and administration. At this time, local governments themselves will be able to actively respond to population decline and regional extinction by strengthening their capabilities. 우리나라는 2019년 11월 이후, 출생아 보다 사망자의 수가 많은 인구 데드크로스(Dead-Cross)현상을 겪으면서 인구 자연감소가 이어지고 있다. 합계출산율은 OECD 국가 중 최저 수준이며, 2020년 말 기준으로는 우리나라 전체인구가 감소하여 본격적인 인구감소시대에 접어들었다고 할 수 있다. 2021년 10월 18일 행정안전부는 인구감소지역을 지정 및 고시하였고, 2022년 6월 10일 인구감소지역 지원 특별법을 제정하여 2023년 1월 1일부터 인구감소 문제 대응을 위한 지원체계를 구축하고 일자리, 주거, 교통, 문화, 교육, 의료 등 다양한 분야에 걸친 종합적 지원을 하고 있다. 인구감소지역 지원 특별법은 생활인구 개념을 도입한 점과 지역주도의 상향식 계획 수립을 규정한 점이 높이 평가될만하지만, 인구감소지역 지정 신청 및 해제 절차를 규정하고 있지 않은 점, 지원 및 특례에 있어서 농산어촌에 대한 지원이 명확하지 않다는 것과 선언적인 규정이 다수 포함되어 있었으며, 기존의 유사 법률간 차별성이 부족하다는 점은 아직 보완해야 될 것이다. 지역의 인구가 감소하는 이유는 여러 가지 원인이 있겠지만 그 중 하나는 그 지역만의 특색이 없다는 것이다. 지역의 특성이 잘 발현되기 위해서는 정부의 권한을 지방자치단체로 이양하는 지방분권이 필요하다. 완전한 지방분권이 실현되면 지방자치단체는 국가의 지원 및 행정에 의존하는 것에서 벗어나, 자신의 특징과 강점을 살려 자치권에 기반한 자치행정을 독립적으로 수행할 수 있다. 이 때 지방자치단체 스스로도 역량이 강화되어 인구감소 및 지역소멸에 대해 능동적으로 대응할 수 있을 것이다.

인구감소가 주택정책에 미치는 영향

한수현(Su Hyoun Han),신국미(Gook Mi Shin) 한국지적학회 2023 한국지적학회지 Vol.39 No.1

본 연구는 인구감소에 따른 부동산 정책이 지향해야 할 방향과 문제점들을 검토하고 대안을 모색하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 인구감소는 비단 우리나라뿐 아니라 전 세계적인 문제로 대두되고 있다. 따라서 미래에 직면하게 될 인구절벽 현상의 연구와 대안 마련은 그로 인해 초래될 중요한 사회적 문제를 완화시키거나 해결할 수 있을 것이라고 본다. 우리나라의 출산율은 가임여성 1명당 0.808명으로(통계청, 2021) 경제협력개발기구(OECD) 국가 중 최저 출산율로 합계출산율이 1명에 미치지 못하는 국가가 되었다. 우리나라는 저출산에 이어 급격한 고령화 사회가 진행되어 2025년도에는 초고령 사회로 진입할 것이라는 분석들이 나오고 있다. 무엇보다 수도권과 산업이 발달한 곳의 인구감소보다 지방의 인구감소가 뚜렷하게 나타나고 있다. 이는 산업구조의 변화와 일자리에 따른 청년들의 수도권과 대도시로의 인구 유출이 발생하는 현상과 가구구조변화에 따른 문제로 지방에서는 초고령 사회로 진입하여 인구감소의 직접적인 영향권에 접어든 곳이 발생하고 있다. 이와 같은 지역 간 차이에도 불구하고 그동안 인구감소에 따른 주택정책에 관한 연구는 수도권 중심의 연구가 주를 이루고 있으며, 주택정책의 지방화 필요성에 관한 연구는 많지 않다. 그러나 인구감소는 수도권보다 비수도권, 도시지역보다는 농촌지역이 급격하게 나타나고 있으며 양 지역간 인구감소의 양상 및 가구구조의 변화도 상이하다. 본 연구는 인구감소 시대의 지방 도시(충청북도)의 인구감소율과 주택 현황 및 그 문제점을 살펴보고 지역별 특성을 고려한 주택정책의 방향성을 제시하고자 하였다. The purpose of this study is to review the directions and problems that real estate policies should pursue due to population decline and to seek alternatives. Population decline is emerging as a problem not only in Korea but also around the world, and preparing alternatives along with research on the population cliff that will face in the future can alleviate or solve the important social problems caused by it. Korea's fertility rate is 0.808 per woman with childbearing (Statistics Office, 2021), the lowest fertility rate among OECD countries, and the total fertility rate is less than one. Analysts say that Korea will enter a super-aged society by 2025 due to the rapid aging society following the low birth rate. Above all, the decrease in the population of the provinces is more pronounced than the decrease in the population of the metropolitan area and places where industries are developed. This is a problem caused by changes in the industrial structure and the outflow of young people to the metropolitan area and large cities due to jobs and changes in the household structure, and some places have entered a super-aged society and entered a direct influence of population decline. Despite these differences between regions, research on housing policies due to population decline has focused on the metropolitan area, and there are not many studies on the necessity of localization of housing policies. However, the population decline is more rapid in non-metropolitan areas than in the metropolitan area and in rural areas than in urban areas, and the pattern and structure of the population decrease are also different. This study attempted to examine the current status and problems of housing in local cities (Chungcheongbuk-do) in the era of population decline and to suggest the direction of housing policy considering regional characteristics.

도시활력 측정을 위한 생활인구 특성 분석 - 이동통신 빅데이터를 중심으로 -

카마타요코 ( Yoko Kamata ),남광우 ( Kwang Woo Nam ) 한국지리정보학회 2023 한국지리정보학회지 Vol.26 No.4

In an era of population decline, depopulated regions facing challenges in attracting inbound population migration must enhance urban vitality through the attraction of living populations. This study focuses on Busan, a city experiencing population decline, comparing the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of registered residents and living populations in various administrative districts (Eup-Myeon-Dong) using mobile communication big data. Administrative districts are typified based on population change patterns, and regional characteristics are analyzed using indicators related to urban decline and vitality. Spatiotemporal distribution analysis reveals generally similar density patterns between registered residents and living populations; however, a distinctive feature is observed in the city center areas where the density of registered residents is low, while the density of living populations is high. Divergent trends in spatial patterns of change between registered residents and living populations show clusters of registered population decline in low-density areas and clusters of living population decline in high-density areas. Areas adjacent to declining living populations exhibit large clusters of population changes, indicating a spillover effect from high-density to neighboring areas. Typification results reveal that, even in areas with a decline in registered residents, there is active population influx due to commuting or visiting. These areas sustain an increase in the number of businesses, confirming the presence of industrial and economic growth. However, approximately 47% of administrative districts in Busan are experiencing a decline in both registered residents and living populations, indicating ongoing regional decline. Urgent measures are needed for enhancing urban vitality. The study emphasizes the necessity of utilizing living population data as an urban planning indicator, considering the increasing limit distance of urban activities and growing interregional interaction due to advancements in transportation and communication.

지방소멸대응기금 성과분석에 따른 개선 방향 고찰

오병기(Beung-Ky Oh) 공공선택학회 2024 공공선택학저널 Vol.3 No.1

지속적인 인구감소 문제를 해결하기 위한 방편으로 지방소멸대응기금이 도입되고 예산이 배분된지 2년이 경과했다. 정부는 89개 인구감소지역을 위주로 연간 1조원의 예산이 투입되면서 특히 비수도권 지역의 심각한 인구감소 문제가 어느 정도 완화되길 기대하고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 동 기금이 인구감소지역에 어느 정도의 성과를 발휘하였는지 통계 자료를 바탕으로 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 인구감소지역의 인구감소세가 어느 정도 완화되었고, 청년층의 순유출도 기금 투입 이전에 비해 규모가 줄어들었음을 확인하였다. 그럼에도 인구감소지역으로 지정되지 않은 지역에서 인구가 감소세로 전환되거나, 청년층 순유출 규모가 확대된 점까지 감안할 때, 이 기금으로 한국의 인구감소문제에 대응하는 것은 한계가 있다는 점도 확인하였다. 결국 우리나라의 급격한 인구감소 문제를 해결하기 위해서는 기초자치단체 차원의 투자계획 수립과 사업 발굴이 일정한 한계가 있을 수밖에 없으므로, 좀 더 지역 간 협력을 바탕으로 광역적 계획 수립과 사업 발굴을 통해 접근하는 것이 바람직할 것이다. 또한 재정제도적 측면에서도 국가균형발전특별회계나 다른 예산사업과 이 기금사업의 연계가 가능하도록 재정 투입을 효율화하여 인구위기를 극복해 나가야 할 것이다. Two years have passed since the local extension reaction Fund was introduced and the budget was allocated to overcome the problem of continuous population decline. The government expects that the annual budget of 1 trillion won, focusing on 89 population-decreasing areas, will alleviate the serious population decline problem, especially in non-capital areas. Therefore, this study analyzed based on statistical data on the extent to which the fund performed in the population-decreasing area. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the population decline in the population-decreasing area was significantly alleviated and the net outflow of young people decreased in size compared to before the input of the fund. Nevertheless, it was also confirmed that there is a limit to responding to the population decline in South Korea with this fund, considering the fact that the population has turned to a decline in areas that are not designated as a population-decreasing area or the scale of net outflow of young people has expanded. In the end, in order to overcome the problem of rapid population decline in South Korea, there are certain limitations in establishing investment plans and discovering projects at the level of basic local governments, so it would be desirable to approach it through regional planning and project discovery based on inter-regional cooperation. In addition, in terms of the financial system, it is necessary to overcome the population crisis by efficient financial input to enable the linkage of this fund project with the Special Account for Balanced National Development or other budget projects.

지방소멸대응기금에 관한 법적 소고

김동균(Dong-Kyun Kim) 한국지방자치법학회 2024 지방자치법연구 Vol.24 No.4

우리나라는 OECD에 가입한 국가 중 유일하게 합계출산율 1미만을 기록하고 있는 국가이다. 출생아 수가 급격히 감소하고 고령인구는 지속적으로 증가하고 있으며, 학령인구, 청년인구 및 생산연령인구의 성장률의 전망도 밝지 않다. 여기에 더해 수도권과 비수도권 간 인구 및 경제의 불균형도 심화되고 있다. 즉, 수도권 지역의 면적은 전 국토의 12%에 해당하지만, 2019년 말부터 우리나라 총인구의 50%는 수도권에 거주하고 있으며, 경제는 물론 의료・문화 등 인프라도 수도권에 집중되어 있다. 이에 따라 현재 비수도권 일부 지역이 실제로 소멸할 수 있다는 위기감이 확산되고 있으며, 이는 헌법상 보장된 지방자치에 대한 직접적인 위협으로도 인식되고 있다. 지역의 인구감소에 따른 부정적 효과로 인해 해당 지역에서 지방자치가 제대로 작동하지 않을 수 있기 때문이다. 지방소멸 문제에 대응하기 위해 국가는 2022년부터 2031년까지 10년 간 매년 1조원을 재원으로 하는 지방소멸대응기금을 조성하여 인구감소지역에 대한 재정지원을 한다. 상대적으로 재정상황이 열악한 인구감소지역에 대한 국가적 재정지원의 필요성에 대해서는 의문이 없지만, 지방소멸대응기금의 실질적인 운용의 측면에서는 많은 쟁점이 존재한다. 먼저, 인구감소의 문제가 장기적 관점에서 논의되어야 한다는 측면에서 지방소멸대응기금의 10년 간 한시적으로 운용된다는 점과 226개 기초지방자치단체 중 107개 기초지방자치단체(89개 인구감소지역 및 18개 관심지역)가 기금의 배분대상이 된다는 점에 대해 재검토가 필요하다. 또한 지방소멸대응기금은 인구감소지역이 수립・제출한 투자계획에 대한 평가를 기초로 차등적으로 배분되는데, 이러한 배분방식의 한계로는 행정력과 재정력이 소요된다는 점, 지방자치단체의 상대적 재정적 여건이 투자계획의 수립에 영향을 줄 수 있다는 점 및 인구감소지역 간 경쟁이 심화될 수 있다는 점 등이 있다. 지방소멸대응기금의 관리・운용주체와 관련해서는 형식적으로는 기금을 지방자치단체에 설치하고 기금의 관리・운영주체도 지방자치단체조합이지만, 실질적으로는 행정안전부 산하 기관인 한국지방재정공제회가 기금의 관리・운용 사무를 위탁받아 수행하고 있으며, 투자계획 평가결과를 행정안전부에 통보하고 기금의 최종 배분액을 결정함에 있어서 행정안전부와 협의를 거치도록 한 점에 비추어 기금의 도입 시부터 강조하였던 인구감소지역의 창의성과 자율성이 적절히 보장되고 있는지 의문이다. 나아가 현재 「인구감소지역 지원 특별법」이 존재함에도 불구하고 여전히 지방소멸대응기금은 「지방자치단체 기금관리기본법」에 법적 근거를 두고 있는데, 인구감소지역 지원 관련 법체계상 정합성 확보를 위해서는 인구감소지역에 대한 특례와 지원제도를 규율하고 있는 「인구감소지역 지원 특별법」을 통해 지방소멸대응기금을 규율하는 방향으로 법개정 논의가 필요하다. South Korea is the only OECD member country with a total fertility rate below 1. The number of births is decreasing rapidly, while the aging population continues to grow. The growth rates of the school-age population, youth population, and working-age population are also projected to remain bleak. Furthermore, the imbalance in population and economic distribution between the Seoul metropolitan area and non-metropolitan areas is intensifying. Although the metropolitan area comprises only 12% of the national territory, 50% of the total population has resided there since the end of 2019, with economic, medical, cultural, and other infrastructure also concentrated in this region. As a result, there is growing concern that some non-metropolitan areas may face actual extinction. This is perceived as a direct threat to the constitutionally guaranteed local autonomy, as the negative effects of population decline could hinder the effective functioning of local governance in these areas. To address the issue of regional extinction, the government has established the provinces dissolution countermeasure fund, providing annual financial support of 1 trillion KRW from 2022 to 2031 to areas experiencing population decline. While the necessity of financial support for regions with relatively poor fiscal conditions is undisputed, the practical operation of the fund raises several legal issues. First, considering the long-term nature of the population decline issue, the time-limited operation of the fund for only 10 years should be reexamined. Additionally, only 107 out of 226 basic local governments (89 designated as population-declining areas and 18 as areas of concern) are eligible for fund allocation, which also warrants review. Second, the fund is distributed differentially based on the evaluation of investment plans submitted by population-declining areas. This method has limitations, including administrative and financial burdens, the potential impact of relative fiscal capacity on the preparation of investment plans, and the risk of heightened competition among population-declining areas. Regarding the management and operation of the fund, it is formally established and managed by local government associations. However, in practice, the Korean Local Finance Association, an agency under the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, is entrusted with the administration of the fund. The association reports the evaluation results of investment plans to the Ministry, and the final allocation of the fund is determined in consultation with the Ministry. This raises questions about whether the creativity and autonomy of population-declining areas, emphasized at the fund's inception, are adequately ensured. Furthermore, although the Special Act on Support for Population-Declining Regions exists, the legal basis for the provinces dissolution countermeasure fund is still grounded in the Basic Act on Local Government Fund Management. To ensure consistency within the legal framework for supporting population-declining regions, it is necessary to establish the legal foundation for the fund under the Special Act on Support for Population-Declining Regions, which governs the special provisions and support systems for these areas.

인구감소시대 도래에 따른 지방재정의 법적 과제

조진우 한국지방자치법학회 2020 지방자치법연구 Vol.20 No.3

In Korea, due to the state-led policy to suppress population growth, the fertility rate has fallen sharply, and now it has fallen to a serious level. Population decline is a combination of low birthrate and aging factors and population movement. As the working-age population moves to Seoul in search of work, the provinces are suffering from the double grief of an increase in the number of elderly people and a decrease in the working-age population. Now, more than half of all citizens live around Seoul. The fiscal imbalance of local governments is gradually accelerating due to an increase in welfare expenditures due to aging and a decrease in local taxes due to a decrease in the working age population. Now local governments are facing a crisis of survival. In order for local governments to function in the era of population decline, first of all, population change must be considered as a planning factor in the mid-term local fiscal plan. In addition, it should be linked to the financial plan and the urban master plan as a factor of population. In addition, local governments' policies to encourage childbirth should be adjusted at the central government level to prevent unnecessary competition and increase the efficiency of budget use. Reforms on local taxes should be promoted, such as the establishment of new tax items such as the joint tax and local welfare tax. Declining population means that the paradigm so far is completely reversed. It is difficult to guarantee local survival in the current era of population decline simply by repeating the existing policies. Now that the changes in the era of population decline are appearing one by one, more aggressive and drastic fiscal changes will be followed to expect fiscal vitality for the province to survive. 우리나라는 국가 주도의 인구증가 억제정책을 추진하여 출산율을 낮추어 왔다. 이후 출산율은 급격하게 낮아지면서 정부가 다시 출산장려정책으로 정책을 전환하였음에도 불구하고 전 세계에서 유래를 찾아보기 힘든 수준까지 떨어지고 있다. 인구감소는 저출산・고령화와 인구이동이라는 요소가 복합적으로 작용하게 된다. 생산가능인구가 수도권으로 일자리를 찾아 이동하면서 지방은 고령자의 증가와 생산가능인구의 감소라는 이중고에 시달리고 있다. 지역균형발전을 위한 각종 특별법 제정 등의 노력에도 불구하고 이제 전 국민의 절반 이상이 수도권에 거주하는 심각한 불균형에 직면하고 있다. 인구감소로 인하여 지방은 일본과 마찬가지로 소멸 가능성이 대두되고 있다. 고령화로 인한 복지비용 지출 증가, 생산가능인구 감소로 인한 지방세입 감소로 인하여 지방자치단체의 재정불균형이 가속화되었다. 이로 인해 지방자치단체의 중앙정부로의 의존성은 점점 커지고 있다. 인구감소시대 지방자치단체의 재정을 확보하기 위해서는 우선 중기지방재정계획 수립과정에서 인구변화가 중요한 요인으로 반영되어야 하고 인구라는 관점에서 도시기본계획과 연계성이 강화되어야 한다. 지방자치단체는 과거처럼 인구가 증가하지 못한다는 현실을 직시하고 인구감소를 접근하는 통일된 정책방향이 요구된다. 또한 지역마다 추진하고 있는 출산 장려 정책을 중앙정부 차원에서 조정하여 불필요한 경쟁을 방지하고 예산 사용의 효율성을 높이도록 하여야 한다. 장기적으로 인구감소시대에는 중앙정부의 교부금의 확대만으로는 지방자치단체의 재정 의존성을 높이기만 할 뿐이기 때문에 공동세나 지방복지세 등의 새로운 세목을 신설하는 등 지방세에 대한 개혁이 추진되어야 한다. 인구감소는 그동안의 성장 중심이 완전히 반대로 변화하여야 한다는 것을 의미한다. 수도권의 일자리를 지방으로 옮기거나 지원금 확대로 인구감소가 해소될 것이라는 안일한 인식만으로는 지방은 생존 자체를 장담하기 어렵다. 인구감소시대의 변화가 하나하나 나타나고 있는 지금에 보다 적극적이고 과감한 재정변화가 수반되어야 지방이 생존할 수 있는 재정활력을 기대할 수 있을 것이다.

인구감소지역내 청년층의 생활인구 유입에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구: 주민등록인구, 체류인구, 외국인인구 유입 간의 비교・분석을 중심으로

임태경 (재) 한국지방행정연구원 2024 지방행정연구 Vol.38 No.4

This study aims to empirically analyze the determinants that influence the influx of young people as resident populations, temporary populations, and foreign populations in a short-term perspective. This analysis is conducted in the context where there is a growing need for alternative approaches to the resident population, particularly in regions experiencing population decline or regions of population interest, to derive outcomes for attracting young people as living populations. The study examines 107 local government areas, including 89 basic local governments categorized as areas experiencing population decline and 18 basic local governments identified as areas of population interest. It empirically analyzes the results by setting these areas as the spatial scope of the study. The focus of the analysis is on the relationship between youth-targeted projects implemented with the Local Extinction Response Funds and the influx of young people’s living populations in these population decline or population interest areas. The results of the analysis show that as the proportion of youth projects planned through the Local Extinction Response Funds allocated to population decline or population interest areas increases, there is a corresponding increase in the influx of young people as temporary populations in these areas. Additionally, it was confirmed that the number of projects planned in the fields of culture and tourism as well as industry and employment, funded by allocations from the Local Extinction Response Fund, serves as a motivating factor influencing the inflow of young foreign populations. These findings suggest that, at least for attracting young people as temporary and foreign populations in population decline or population interest areas, financial expenditures from the Local Extinction Response Funds play a positive role. The degree to which inefficient investments can be controlled when allocating these funds may determine their success. Therefore, the empirical analysis of this study provides policy implications and can serve as foundational data for developing strategies to attract young living populations through the efficient implementation.