How useful are consumer and real estate brokerage manager forecasts of housing prices in South Korea? A directional analysis

Young Bin Ahn(Young Bin Ahn) 한국APEC학회 2023 Journal of APEC Studies Vol.15 No.1

Using a newly developed market timing test, we evaluate the directional accuracy of consumers’ forecasts of housing price inflation based on the Bank of Korea’s South Korean consumer survey and real estate brokerage managers’ forecasts from the Kookmin Bank’s survey data. Our directional analysis results show that Korean real estate brokerage managers’ forecasts and consumers’ forecasts are not useful predictors of housing price inflation during the whole sample period. The results of the directional analysis are the same, even though the sample period was split into subperiods. Our results shed light on the redundancies of consumers’ and real estate brokerage managers’ forecasts in formulating government housing policies for housing price stability. Our findings have policy implications for policymakers. First, although Korean consumers’ and real estate brokerage managers’ forecasts are not useful in making correct predictions about the direction of housing price inflation, those forecasts should be considered as those forecasts can cause consumers’ irrational house buying herding behavior. Next, to stabilize housing price inflation within the policy target range, it may be necessary to control households’ expectations about the future direction of housing prices as it can mitigate their irrational house buying herding behavior. Further, we show the advantage of the new market-timing test and how its test results are robust for serial correlation in time-series forecasts and the corresponding actual outcomes. Relying solely on the market timing tests used in the literature, except for the new test, would lead us to conclude that Korean real-estate brokerage managers’ forecasts are useful.

Changes in Diagnostic Methods for Pulmonary Tuberculosis between 2005 and 2013

Ahn, Bin,Kim, Joohae,Yoo, Chul-Gyu,Kim, Young Whan,Han, Sung Koo,Yim, Jae-Joon The Korean Academy of Tuberculosis and Respiratory 2015 Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases Vol.78 No.3

Background: Diagnostic methods for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) have recently advanced. The aim of this study was to evaluate the changes in TB diagnostic tests that prompted the initiation of anti-TB treatment over time in South Korea, an industrialized country with an intermediate TB burden. Methods: Patients diagnosed with pulmonary TB in the first halves of 2005 and 2013 at a tertiary referral hospital were included. Diagnostic methods that prompted the initiation of anti-TB treatment were compared between the 2 groups of patients. Results: A greater proportion of patients were diagnosed with pulmonary TB using bronchoscopy in 2013 than in 2005 (26.7% vs. 6.6%, respectively; p<0.001), while the proportion of patients clinically diagnosed with pulmonary TB was lower in 2013 than in 2005 (24.7% vs. 49.0%, respectively; p<0.001). Additionally, more patients started anti-TB treatment based on positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) results for Mycobacterium tuberculosis DNA in 2013 than in 2005 (47.3% vs. 7.9%, respectively; p<0.001). Conclusion: The initiation of treatment for pulmonary TB in South Korea has become more frequently based on PCR and the use of bronchoscopic specimens.

Changes in Diagnostic Methods for Pulmonary Tuberculosis between 2005 and 2013

( Bin Ahn ),( Joohae Kim ),( Chul Gyu Yoo ),( Young Whan Kim ),( Sung Koo Han ),( Jae Joon Yim ) 대한결핵 및 호흡기학회 2015 Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases Vol.78 No.3

Background: Diagnostic methods for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) have recently advanced. The aim of this study was to evaluate the changes in TB diagnostic tests that prompted the initiation of anti-TB treatment over time in South Korea, an industrialized country with an intermediate TB burden. Methods: Patients diagnosed with pulmonary TB in the first halves of 2005 and 2013 at a tertiary referral hospital were included. Diagnostic methods that prompted the initiation of anti-TB treatment were compared between the 2 groups of patients. Results: A greater proportion of patients were diagnosed with pulmonary TB using bronchoscopy in 2013 than in 2005 (26.7% vs. 6.6%, respectively; p<0.001), while the proportion of patients clinically diagnosed with pulmonary TB was lower in 2013 than in 2005 (24.7% vs. 49.0%, respectively; p<0.001). Additionally, more patients started anti-TB treatment based on positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) results for Mycobacterium tuberculosis DNA in 2013 than in 2005 (47.3% vs. 7.9%, respectively; p<0.001). Conclusion: The initiation of treatment for pulmonary TB in South Korea has become more frequently based on PCR and the use of bronchoscopic specimens.

A Case of Cytomegalovirus Retinitis during Maintenance Chemotherapy for Acute Leukemia

( Bin Ahn ),( Seungha Song ),( Mi Seon Han ),( Baek Lok Oh ),( Jae Hong Choi ),( Eun Hwa Choi ) 대한소아감염학회 2020 Pediatric Infection and Vaccine Vol.27 No.3

거대세포바이러스병은 혈액종양 질환을 가진 환자군에서는 주로 조혈모세포이식을 받은 환자에게서 발현하는 것으로 보고되고 있으나, 드물게 조혈모세포이식을 받지 않고 항암 치료 중에 발현하는 경우가 있다. 저자들은 발열과 시력 저하를 주소로 입원한 7세 남자에게서 백혈병 유지 치료 중 발현한 거대세포바이러스 망막염을 진단하여 보고하는 바이다. 초기에 거대세포바이러스 항원혈증검사 수치가 51 positive cells/200,000 leukocytes로 높게 보고되었으나 조혈모세포이식을 받은 병력이 없어 항바이러스 치료를 시행하지 않았다가 3주 후 항원혈증검사 수치가 170 positive cells/200,000 leukocytes로 증가하여 시행한 안과 검진에서 양안의 망막 침범 소견과 과립형 병변이 확인되어 거대세포바이러스 망막염으로 진단되었다. 총 4주간의 정맥 내 ganciclovir 치료와 6회의 유리체강 내 ganciclovir 주입술을 시행한 후 경구 valganciclovir 치료를 1달간 더 시행하였다. 치료 시작 1달 후 거대세포바이러스 항원혈증검사가 음성이 되었고 안저검사에서 호전 소견을 보였다. 본 증례와 같이 거대세포바이러스병에 이환되기 쉬운 고위험군 환자들에 대한 선별 검사와 적절한 치료 방침에 대한 논의가 필요하겠다. Cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease is rare in children who receive anticancer chemotherapy and have no history of stem cell transplantation (SCT). We report a case of CMV retinitis that developed during maintenance chemotherapy for acute leukemia. A 7-year-old boy developed decreased visual acuity and persistent pancytopenia during maintenance chemotherapy. Laboratory investigations initially showed significant CMV antigenemia (51 positive cells/200,000 leukocytes); however, antiviral therapy was not deemed necessary in this patient who had no history of SCT. CMV antigenemia worsened to 170 positive cells/200,000 leukocytes over 3 weeks. Ophthalmological examination revealed multiple bilateral retinal infiltrates and granular lesions. He was diagnosed with CMV retinitis and was treated with a 4-week course of intravenous ganciclovir and intravitreal injection of ganciclovir 6 times, followed by a 1-month course of orally administered valganciclovir. A CMV antigenemia assay showed negative results, and follow-up fundoscopy revealed lesser retinal infiltration after the sixth intravitreal ganciclovir injection. Future studies should focus on the development of standardized screening methods and preemptive therapeutic strategies for CMV disease in high-risk children.

A Case of Lyme Disease Complicated with Atrioventricular Block in a 13-year-old Boy

( Bin Ahn ),( Gi Beom Kim ),( Hoan Jong Lee ),( Eun Hwa Choi ) 대한소아감염학회 2020 Pediatric Infection and Vaccine Vol.27 No.3

라임병은 진드기를 매개로 하여 보렐리아속균 감염에 의해 발생하는 세균 질환이다. 가장 흔한 증상으로 초기에 유주성 홍반이 대부분의 환자에게서 관찰되며, 신경, 심혈관계 및 관절을 침범하는 증상이 발현할 수 있다. 저자들은 미국 코네티컷주로 여행력이 있는 13세 남자에게서 발현한 라임병을 진단하여 보고하는 바이다. 환자는 2016년 여름에 미국에서 숲 체험에 참여하던 중 발열, 두통, 양쪽 무릎 관절통을 호소하여 귀국하였으며, 내원 시 양 하지에 다수의 유주성 홍반이 관찰되었다. 심전도 검사에서 1도 방실 차단이 확인되었다. 간접면역형광항체법과 웨스턴블럿법 검사에서 라임병 특이 IgM 항체가 양성으로 확인되었다. 경구 doxycycline으로 4주간 치료하였으며, 유주성 홍반이 소실되고 심전도가 정상 소견으로 회복되었다. 라임병의 진단에 있어 호발 지역으로의 여행력을 확인하는 것이 중요하다. 라임병에 의한 심장염은 무증상 방실 전도차단으로 나타날 수 있고 고도 방실 차단으로 진행할 수 있어 주의를 요하며 적절한 항생제 치료를 통해 회복될 수 있다. Lyme disease is a common vector-borne disease caused by Borrelia burgdorferi. Erythema migrans represents the most common manifestation during the early phase of this disease; however, systemic manifestations involving the nervous system, joints, or heart are known to occur. We report a case of Lyme disease accompanied by cardiac complications in a 13-year-old Korean male adolescent. The patient developed annular erythematous lesions on his lower extremities after a field trip during his visit to Connecticut, USA, for a boarding school camp, and his skin lesions were consistent with erythema migrans. Indirect immunofluorescence assay and Western blot analysis for Lyme immunoglobulin M showed positive results. Electrocardiography revealed a first-degree atrioventricular block, and he was diagnosed with Lyme carditis and received a 4-week course of oral doxycycline. Follow-up electrocardiography performed a week later revealed normal findings, and the patient showed an uneventful recovery. Lyme carditis often presents as an asymptomatic heart block that can progress to an advanced heart block; however, this condition is reversible with appropriate antibiotic treatment.

Synthesis of AlN Particles by Microwave-Assisted Urea Route

Ahn, Jong Bin,Kim, Dong Soo,Kim, Young Kook,Lee, Jung Goo Trans Tech Publications, Ltd. 2016 Applied Mechanics and Materials Vol.851 No.-

<P>Novel simple route to prepare AlN nanoparticles was proposed in this study. Aluminum nitride powder was synthesized by microwave-assisted urea route. Aluminum chloride was dissolved in ethanol and urea was added to this solution considering molar concentration with Aluminum chloride. The solution was heated under microwave (MW) irradiation from 60°C to 80°C for 5-10 minutes. And then heat treatment was performed in N2 atmosphere with various temperatures and time to obtain AlN particles. While microwave was irradiated to the mixed solution with Aluminum chloride, urea and ethanol, the solvent was eliminated and polymerization reaction was accelerated to formmetal-organic complex. AlN particles were successfully synthesized after heat treatment above 1600°C under N2 or N2-H2 mixed gas atmosphere in the molar ratio (urea/Aluminum chloride) of 6.</P>

방아(Agastache rugosa O. Kuntze)의 향기성분

안빈(Bin Ahn),양차범(Cha-Bum Yang) 한국식품과학회 1991 한국식품과학회지 Vol.23 No.5

Uniconazole처리에 따른 샐비어(Salvia splendens Ker.)의 환경적응성 및 공해물질 내성에 관한 연구

안규빈(Ahn Kyu Bin),정순주(Chung Soon Ju),정갑채(Chung Gap Chae),박화성(Park Wha Seung) 한국원예학회 1991 한국원예학회 학술발표요지 Vol.9 No.1

블랜디드 러닝을 활용한 여고 체육수업이 학생들의 체육수업 내적동기와 수업만족도에 미치는 영향

안성빈(Ahn, Sung-Bin),허만동(Huh, Man-Doing),류민정(Lyu, Min-Jeong) 성신여자대학교 교육문제연구소 2012 교육연구 Vol.53 No.-

본 연구는 블랜디드 러닝을 활용한 여자 고등학교(이하 여고로 칭함)체육수업이 학생들의 체육수업 내적동기와 수업 만족에 어떤 영향을 미치는가에 대해 알아보고자 하였다. 소망 여고(가명) 1학년에 재학 중인 다섯 학급의 173명 학생이 연구대상으로 참여하였으며, 다섯 학급의 체육수업에서 블랜디드 러닝을 적용하였다. 자료 수집을 위해 체육수업 내적동기 설문지와 수업만족도 설문지를 사용하였다. 수집된 자료는 paired t-test를 통해 분석되었고, 다음과 같은 결과를 도출하였다. 첫째, 블랜디드 러닝 활용 전과 후 수업에서 학생들이 지각하는 내적동기는 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 블랜디드 러닝 활용 전과 후, 학생의 수업만족도는 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 블랜디드 러닝을 활용한 체육수업이 여고 학생들의 체육수업 내적동기와 수업만족도에 영향을 미칠 수 있음을 이해할 수 있다. 따라서 여고 체육수업에서 블랜디드 러닝의 적용은 학생들의 체육수업 내적동기와 수업 만족도를 향상시키는데 유용한 체육 교수법이 될 수 있다는 측면에서 논의하였다. The purpose of this study was to investigate effect of blended learning in physical education(PE) classes on intrinsic motivation and class satisfaction in female high school students. Total 173 students in Somang female hight school were participated to complete intrinsic motivation and satisfaction questionnaires in PE classes. All participants were in PE classes with blended learning. To analyze data, pared t-test was used. Results indicated that students perceived they had higher intrinsic motivation in PE classes and class satisfaction after blended learning class. Blended learning in PE class can be used as an effective teaching method to encourage students to learn independently.

최근 와인관련 자료에 의한 보르도 와인의 재평가

안빈(Ahn, Bin) 한국외식산업경영학회 2013 외식산업경영연구 Vol.9 No.1

오랜 역사와 전통을 거쳐 발전해 오며 주목받고 있는 보르도와인은 1855년의 등급체계를 비롯하여 끊임없이 문제점 및 개선점 들이 제시되어 오고 있다. 그중 하나가 와인가격의 상대적인 변화이다. 1등급 와인들은 여전히 다른 와인들에 비해 엄청난 차이를 보이며 높은 가격으로 거래되고 있으며 2등급에서 5등급에 속하는 많은 와인들이 각각의 등급과는 무관한 가격이 형성되고 있는 등 1855년에 만들어진 등급체계를 더 이상 유지하기에는 무리가 빚어지고 있는 상황이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 1855년에 세워진 보르도와인 등급체계를 새롭게 평가하고 기준을 마련하기 위하여 와인관련 간행물인 Wine Advocate, Wine Spectator 및 Liv-Ex가 제시한 최근 데이터를 중심으로 비교분석 및 재평가한 결과, 좌안지역이 수치상으로는 점수 및 우수와인 선정에서 더 높은 성적을 나타내고 있지만 향후 우안지역이 지금과 같은 성장을 계속한다면 좌안지역에 못지 않게 좋은 품질로 인정받을 수 있는 와인들이 나타날 것으로 기대되었다. A Bordeaux wine is any wine produced in the Bordeaux region of France, the most expensive and prestigious wines in the world. The Bordeaux wine appellations is divided into left bank region and right bank region, subregions including Médoc, Graves, Saint- Émilion and Pomerol. In 1855, the châteaux of Bordeaux were classified: this classification remains widely used today. But There is no official classification applied to right bank regions. In this study, Wine Advocate, Wine Spectator and Liv-ex related datas were analyzed and compared for setup a new reasonable and available Bordeaux wine reclassification. Consequently, many of right bank wines, notably St-Emilliom and Pomerol, are often considered as being equivalent to the 1855 classification wines, and sold for even higher prices recently.