이변량 프로빗 모형을 이용한 노인가구의 주거이동 의사 결정요인 분석 - 부산 ․ 울산 ․ 경남 노인가구를 대상으로 -

최효비,최열 한국부동산원 2022 부동산분석 Vol.8 No.2

The purpose of the study is to analyze the determinants that affect elderly households’ intention to move and a potential destination (between regions or within a region), with the elderly who resides in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyengsangnam-do, by demographic characteristics, residentialenvironmental characteristics, and economic characteristics, using Korea housing survey. The study uses a bivariate probit model for the analysis, considering the characteristics of dependent variables. The major findings are as followed. First, the variables influencing the elderly households’ intention to move and a potential destination are householder age, housing occupancy type, stress related to housing expense, and value of housing assets. Second, it is found that the variables only affecting the elderly households’ residential mobility plan are householder educational background, the number of household members, housing type, housing area, residential region, housing satisfaction, residential environment satisfaction, National Basic Living Security, and value of total assets. Third, the variable that has significant effects on the elderly households’ potential destination only is retirement status of householder. According to the findings, it is necessary to decide policy priority and prepare housing policy for the elderly households. 본 연구는 주거실태조사 자료를 활용하여 부산 ․ 울산 ․ 경남 거주 노인가구를 대상으로 인구사회학적 특성, 주거환경 특성, 경제적 특성에 따른 주거이동 의사 및 주거이동 계획 지역(지역 내 이동, 지역 간 이동) 결정요인을 분석하고자 하였다. 분석은 종속변수의 특성을 고려하여 표본 선택 이변량 프로빗 모형을 활용하였다. 연구의 주요 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 노인가구의 주거이동 의사와 주거이동 계획 지역에 영향을 미치는 변수는 가구주 연령, 주택 점유형태, 주거비 부담정도, 주택 자산으로 나타났다. 둘째, 노인가구의 주거이동 의사에만 유의미한 영향을 미치는 변수는 가구주 학력, 가구원 수, 주택 유형, 주택 면적, 거주 지역, 주택 만족도, 주거환경 만족도, 국민기초생활보장급여 수급가구 여부, 총 자산으로 나타났다. 셋째, 노인가구의 주거이동 계획 지역에만 유의미한 영향을 미치는 변수는 가구주 은퇴 여부로 나타났다. 이를 바탕으로 정책적 우선순위를 도출하여, 노인가구를 대상으로 한 주거정책 수립이 필요하다.

은퇴계층의 부동산자산 운용에 관한 결정요인 분석

최효비(Choi, Hyo Bi),이재송(Lee, Jae Song),최열(Choi, Yeol) 한국부동산학회 2016 不動産學報 Vol.65 No.-

많은 은퇴계층들은 자산 축적 방법으로 부동산 투자를 선호하여 자산포트폴리오 중 부동산자산이 차지하는 비중이 상당히 높은 편이다. 이러한 점에서 착안하여 본 연구는 가계금융·복지조사를 이용하여 은퇴계층의 부동산자산 형성에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석하고자 하였다. 은퇴계층이 보유한 부동산자산을 보다 심층적으로 분석하기 위하여 이항로짓모형을 활용하여 2단계에 걸친 실증분석을 실시하였다. 첫 번째 분석에서는 은퇴계층이 자가 소유에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석하였고, 두 번째 분석에서는 자가를 이미 보유하고 있는 은퇴계층이 자가 이외의 부동산자산 소유에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 첫 번째 분석에서는 가구주 은퇴 연령이 낮을수록, 혼인을 유지하고 있지 않을수록, 가구원 수가 많을수록, 수도권에 거주할수록, 기타실물자산 보유액 및 연간지출금액이 작을수록 은퇴계층이 자가를 소유할 확률이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 두 번째 분석에서는 은퇴시시가 앞당겨질수록, 낮은 교육수준의 가구주일수록, 부채총액과 경상소득 및 연간지출금액이 작을수록 자가 이외 부동산자산을 소유할 확률이 높은 것으로 나타났다 1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES In preparing economically for retirement, the real estate assets have charm to satisfy residential stability and wealth effects at the same time. Actually the proportion of real estate assets in property portfolios of many retirement people is quite high. Therefore, the study is to analyze the factors affecting the formation of their real estate assets with the household finance․welfare statistical survey. It is used variables of gender, age, retirement age, education, marital status as householder characteristics, variables of the number of household member, residential areas, housing type, area for exclusive use as household characteristics, and economic variables of financial assets, real estate and other real assets, total debt. (2) RESEARCH METHOD Empirical analysis: Binary logit model (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS Analysis is carried out in two stages using binary logit model with the survey data of households which householders retired. First stage is analyzing factors affecting the home ownership. Second is analyzing factors affecting the ownership of real estate except their own houses. 2. RESULTS In the first analysis, there is a high probability to own their house of retirement people the more they do not maintain the marriage, the greater the number of household members, living in the metropolitan area. In the second analysis, there is a high probability to own other real estate assets, the faster the retirement age, the lower levels of education of householders, and the smaller total debt, ordinary income and annual expenditure.

도시계획시설 해제에 따른 기부채납 방식 및 기준마련에 관한 연구 - 시장·학교를 중심으로 -

박봉철,이동현,최효비 부산연구원 2020 연구보고서 현안연구 Vol.2020 No.0

일자리 창출을 위한 창조계층 및 창조산업 육성의 도시계획 정책 연구

최열,이재송,최효비 부산연구원 2015 연구보고서 학연연구 Vol.2015 No.0

□ Research Background and Purposes It has become difficult to create added value with the manufacturing-centered industry and employment. In order to turn Busan into a creative city by invigorating its creative economy, fostering the creative industry and the creative class in which people work in the industry is of the utmost necessity. While the majority of the support policies have been administrative and financial measures to foster the creative industry and the creative class, urban planning approaches can provide creative foundations to the city to facilitate the development of the industry. For doing so, it is necessary to analyze what kind of influences certain urban planning features have on the creative industry and the creative class so as to suggest policy implementation related to urban planning. This study, therefore, used quantitative methods for the analysis to draw a scientific conclusion. In addition, it proposed urban planning policies to foster both the creative industry and the creative class in Busan, based on the conclusion. □ Definitions of the Creative Industry and the Creative Class The creative industry and the creative class with which the research was concerned were defined by analyzing previous research, both domestic and overseas. The definition of the creative industry first derived from the subclass criteria of the Korea Standard Industrial Classification, considering the availability of relevant statistical data. Additionally, this study reflected the creative industry that had been defined more than three times in previous research. Workers in such creative industry were defined as the creative class. In accordance with the subclassification criteria, nineteen industries in total were identified as the creative industry. When an analysis method happened to be unable to account for the industries under the subclasses, it factored in relevant, more generic industries in the three main classification criteria to which the nineteen industries belong. □ Analysis Results The analysis of this study is focused on three aspects: (1) spatial clustering characteristics of the creative industry and the creative class in the neighborhoods (dong) of Busan through spatial autocorrelation analysis, (2) competitiveness of the creative industry and the creative class in Busan by calculating the RRCA index and the LQ, and (3) urban planning features’ influences on the creative industry and the creative class by employing the panel model. First, the spatial autocorrelation analysis employed the creative industry and the creative class that were identified under the main classification criteria. When it comes to publication, visual entertainment, info-communications, and info-services, it was shown that the numbers of both business entities and workers had stronger clusters in the eastern part of Busan, where Centum City had great influences, than in the rest, As to professional, scientific, and technical services, the number of their business entities were clustered around Geumjeong-gu along Jungang-daero, one of the main arterial roads in the city, while the number of their workers were clustered around Haeundae-gu. In regards to arts, sports, and leisure services, the number of their business entities had a stronger cluster in the northern part of Busan than in the rest, whereas the number of their workers did not particularly demonstrate a cluster. Second, competitiveness of the creative industry and the creative class was analyzed by calculating the RRCA index and the LQ. The creative industry and the creative class under the main classification criteria were employed to calculate the RRCA index, while those under the subclassification criteria were used for the LQ. The result of the RRCA index analysis showed that arts, sports, leisure services and professional, scientific, and technical services appeared to have comparative advantages at the national level, and each district (gu and gun) appeared to have different industries with comparative advantages at the city level. As a result of analyzing the LQ, radio broadcasting appeared to be specialized in terms of the number of business entities and photographing services appeared to be specialized in terms of the number of workers at the national level, while each district appeared to have different specialized industries at the city level. Third, for the panel model analysis, the numbers of both business entities and workers in the nineteen creative industries were selected as dependent variables, and some characteristics expected to have influences on the dependent variable as independent variables, including regional characteristics, architectural characteristics, urban planning facility characteristics, and zoning characteristics. To establishing the panel data, statistical data about the selected variables from 2007 to 2013 were collected. As a result of the analysis, it was shown that the panel model was more appropriate than the OLS regression model with respect to the numbers of business entities and workers in every creative industry. Influential variables and their effects were different in each industry. This study combined the result of the panel model analysis with that of the analysis of the LQ, finally proposing policy implementation to foster the creative industry and create related jobs.

문화콘텐츠 디지털 전환 대응을 위한 부산시 주요 정책방향

윤지영,구윤모,최효비 부산연구원 2022 연구보고서 인사이트 Vol.2022 No.0

부산시 공공주도 노후주거지 재생 실행방안 연구

김경수,최영상,최효비 부산연구원 2020 연구보고서 정책연구 Vol.2020 No.0

The purpose of this study is to make the implementation plan for the revitalization of deteriorated residential areas led by the public. It is a fundamental alternative to solving the deepened population decline in the original downtown area, the hinterland of the North Port, and the increase in vacant housing in the deteriorated residential areas. To achieve the above objectives, the alternatives were suggested by conducting literature review and case study, analyzing statistical data, analyzing domestic and international support system, and surveying local residents. As deteriorated residential areas are scattered in Jung-gu and Dong-gu of Busan Metropolitan, the hinterland of the North Port, so public development is needed to create synergy for the North Port redevelopment. For the hinterland of the North Port, we propose a plan to cover public rental housing, social housing, residential industrial complexes of real estate and IT startups in connection with the North Port redevelopment. It is the plan to build a pilot public rental housing complex in the hinterland of the North Port, so that local residents can resettle. Ultimately, the revitalization of deteriorated residential area led by the public, the Busan specific type, requires social consensus between the Busan Metropolitan government, the Korean government, the local public enterprises, and the local community. And for this, a detailed master plan must be established in the future.

인구감소에 대응한 부산 인구정책 방향

김경수,이재정,하정화,최효비,이정석 부산연구원 2019 연구보고서 현안연구 Vol.2019 No.0

부산 청년인구 유출입 특성과 청년인구 유지 방안

김경수,허윤수,서옥순,최효비,이우평,이진숙,최청락 부산연구원 2022 연구보고서 현안연구 Vol.2022 No.0

부산지역 대기질 관리를 위한 빅데이터 활용 방안

허종배,이은진,구윤모,최효비 부산연구원 2022 연구보고서 기본연구 Vol.2022 No.0

부산지역 대기질 관리를 위한 빅데이터 활용 방안

허종배,이은진,구윤모,최효비 부산연구원 2022 부산발전포럼 Vol.- No.196