북한의 대내외 정세평가 : 2011년 신년공동사설 분석

김연수(KIM Yeon-su)(金蓮洙) 신아시아연구소 2011 신아세아 Vol.18 No.4

지난해 김정은 승계체제 공식 등장 이후 북한은 체제안정을 유지하면서 김정은 승계체제 안착을 위한 대내외 여건조성에 주력해 왔다. 올해 북한정세에서 김정은 승계체제의 안착국면이 두드러지게 나타났다. 자원공급 한계로 경제 활력 회복에는 적잖은 한계를 보이고 있고 체제 구심력 회복도 쉽지 않으나, 김정은 승계체제의 정치적 안정성은 북한군 수뇌부 지지를 중심으로 증대되고 있다. 북한은 그 승계체제에 대한 중국의 확고한 전략적 지원과 러시아의 전략적 협력태도를 이끌어냈다. 대미관계에서도 고위급회담 개최를 통해서 관계개선에 대한 원칙적 합의에 이르렀다. 북한은 대남 멸적의식을 강조하며 비대칭전력 증강과 대남 군사훈련에 적극적 행태를 보이면서도 대남관계에서 일정한 성과를 거두고 있다. 간헐적 대남 강경태도 시현이 있었으나 대화공세를 이어 오며 남북 비핵화회담 개최 및 남한의 소위 '5. 24' 대북 제재 조치의 부분적 완화태도를 이끌어냈다. 앞으로도 김정일 사망에도 불구하고 김정은 승계체제 안정화 차원의 이러한 올해 북한의 대내외 정책기조가 지속될 것이다. '강성국가' 원년 즈음 각종 정치행사 등 후계체제 정통성 고취행태와 김정은 승계체제 중심 권력 엘리트변화 양상의 심화가 예상된다. 북한은 주민들의 실생활 개선을 위한 경공업부문의 생산 정상화에 집중하고, 사상교양 강화 등으로 체제 원심력 확산을 제어하고자 할 것이다. 북핵문제의 협상국면과 평화협정 프로세스 유도로 외부의 대북경제지원과 대미관계 정상화의 계기를 만들어나가고자 할 것이다. 대중 동맹 결속 강화로 경제협력, 인적교류, 군사협력 등의 확대 노력도 전개할 것이다. 대남 관계에서는 대남 적대성에 기초한 군사적 대응능력을 강화하는 한편 평화공세로 남북고위급회담 개최를 유인하여 김정은 승계체제의 안정화에 유리한 남북관계의 안정성을 확보하고자 할 것이다. 향후 북한의 대내외 정책구사의 초점이 김정은 승계체제의 안정화에 맞춰지면서 주체와 선군노선의 계승성을 주장하는 김정은 승계체제는 중·장기 진로의 불확실성에도 불구하고 단기적으로 보면 유사(類似)수령유일지도체제의 성격을 띠면서 안정된 국면으로 진입할 가능성이 높다. North Korea has been engrossed in creating a friendly environment for stabilization of the Kim Jong-eun's new regime since he had been designated as its 3rd hereditary successor in Pyongyang in last September 2010. The eminent features of North Korean hereditary succession politics of this year is that the Kim's hereditary succession regime has been stabilized very rapidly owing to improvement of internal and external environment for its survival in 2011. The core leader group of North Korean People's Army openly took a pledge to dedicate their loyalty to new leader Kim Jong-eun through the several main national festivities. Additionally, Pyongyang attained Beijing's firmly strategic acceptance and assistance to the new North Korean regime and Russia's strategic support to the Kim's hereditary succession regime. Pyongyang reached mutual consent for the sake of improvement of the relations between two countries through the resumed high-level governmental talks between washington and Pyongyang. As for inter-Korean relations, North Korea succeeded in softening Seoul's antagonistic attitude against Pyongyang by means of its continuous demand for reopening governmental talks between two Koreas. Notwithstanding Kim Jong-il's death, these kinds of environmental changes contributed to maintain the new North Korean regime's stability. Meanwhile, North Korea's internal and external policy is also going to be concentrated on stabilizing the new Kim's regime in the near future. That's why North Korea's policy attitude in the near term will be similar to Pyongyang's that of this year. In this context, we can all agree that there is a high possibility that the new Kim's regime is going to make an approach to the higher stage of its stabilization.

북한의 대내․대남정책 평가

김연수(金蓮洙, KIM Yeon-su) 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회) 2010 신아세아 Vol.17 No.2

North Korea has continued its hard-line domestic and South Korea policy since later in 2008. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s health problem has triggered succession politics in Pyongyang since the middle of 2008. The determinant factor that has decided North Korea’s internal and external policy since then is the politics of succession. The Success of succession politics in North Korea depends on both ideological and pragmatical legitimacy. Ideological legitimacy is more important in political process of succession to establish the succession system in North Korean political system. The essential issue of ideological legitimacy is to succeed Kim Jong-il’s nuclear capability-Military-First policy which contains fundamentally hard-line and belligerent stance in dealing with internal and external problems. In other words, the successor to Kim Jong-il inevitably has to continue socialist economic system and confrontational stance against Seoul. In this context, the future of post-Kim Jong-il era is very gloomy. The appearance of three generations of hereditary succession is the symptom of the demise of the Kim’s crumbling dynasty. Therefore, Seoul has to maintain a strategic North Korea policy stance in order to prepare for emergency situation in North Korea and achieve reunification of two Koreas in the end. 지난 2년 동안 북한의 대내 ․대남정책을 결정해온 것은 북한의 후계계승 정치였다. 북한의 대내 선군노선과 동원정치 강화, 그리고 대남강경정책의 결정배경에는 김정일 후계계승의정통성 구축이라고 하는 북한의 대내 정치수요가 자리잡고 있었다. 김정일의 건강이상으로다급해진 조기 후계체제 구축 필요는 조급한 후계자의 정통성 구축 등 후계계승의 정치과정을 재촉했다. 그 결과로 북한당국은 대내적으로는 정치군사적 강경자세를 취해왔으며, 대남정책에 있어서도 강경을 기조로 하는 이중적 대남정책의 특이성을 보여왔다. 이러한 북한의안팎의 강경정책 기조는 후계계승 정치과정의 정통성 구축 노력에 적잖은 부담을 가중시킨것으로 평가된다. 대내정책과 대남정책 차원 모두에서 후계계승의 정치는 중대한 ‘신뢰의 위기’에 봉착해 있다. 때문에 지금 북한은 포스트 김정일체제의 후계계승의 정치적 과정이 대내 ․대남정책 모두에서 앞으로 더 큰 ‘신뢰의 위기’의 악화로 나아가게 될 것인지를 가늠할수 있는 주요한 시험대에 서 있으나, 핵 보유의 선군노선과 ‘우리식 사회주의 고수’가 김정일 후계체제 대내외정책 추진방향의 기조로 자리잡혀가고 있는 상황이다. 3대 세습체제의등장은 북한체제의 조종을 알려는 전령이다. 한 체제의 등장과 소멸이 역사성을 갖는 것이라 면 더욱 그러하다. 북한체제의 종말적 상황에 대비한 정책적 대응능력을 보다 내실 있게 마련해야한다. 한국의 통일주도 능력을 키워나가야 한다.

강원도 사육 한우의 간질 감염실태

김연수,김상균,황의경,Kim, Yeon-Soo,Kim, Sang-Kyun,Hwang, Eui-Kyung 대한수의학회 2001 대한수의학회지 Vol.41 No.4

A field survey of fascioliasis of Korean native cattle raising and raised in specialized commercial breeding farms and local farms in Kangwon province using both intradermal test and sedimentation technique for feces was carried out from November to December, 1996. Fecal samples were taken from fascioliasis positive cattle by the intradermal test for the fecal examination. Liver tissues were randomly collected from an abattoir for histopathological examination of liver fluke infection in cattle. The results are as follows. 1. By the intradermal test for a total of 211 cattle raising in both Wonju and Wheongsung, Kangwon province, 60 heads(28.4%) showed positive reaction. Among 60 positive cattle, eggs of Fasciola hepatica were found from 51 heads(85.0%) by sedimentation technique. 2. According to the cattle raising areas, the positive rates by the intradermal test were 26.7%(20 out of 75 heads) in Wonju and 29.4%(40 out of 136 heads) in Wheongsung. 3. According to the age of cattle examined, the positive rates by the intradermal test in 1~3, 4~6 and 7~10 years old were 11.7%(7 out of 100 heads), 68.3%(41 out of 93 heads) and 20.0%(12 out of 18 heads), respectively. 4. The overall infection rates of fluke larvae from the slaughtered cattle at an abattoir in Wonju was 24.7%(37 out of 150 heads). In histopathology, liver lesions were observed such as inflammation with infiltration of eosinophils, polymorphonuclear cells, mononuclear cells and multinucleated giant cells, proliferation of connective tissues, calcification and abscess formation.

테마연재 / 스파이웨어 통한 개인정보 유출 심각하다

김연수,Kim, Yeon-Su 한국데이터베이스진흥원 2001 디지털콘텐츠 Vol.5 No.-

최근 개인정보 유출 및 컴퓨터 범죄가 정보 역효과로 대두되고 있다. 이에 본지는 정보보호 및 컴퓨터 범죄에 관해서 국내에서는 앞선 연구를 하고 있는 한국 정보보호센터의 김연수 연구원의 연재를 통해 정보보호 및 컴퓨터범죄에 관한 기술 및 유형별 동향 법적 대응등에 관한 폭넓은 고찰을 통해 정보보호와 사이버 범죄의 실상과 예방에 기여하고자 한다.

원발성 폐암의 임상분석

김연수,김광택,김한겸,김학재,Kim, Yeon-Su,Kim, Gwang-Taek,Kim, Han-Gyeom,Kim, Hak-Jae 대한흉부심장혈관외과학회 1997 Journal of Chest Surgery Vol.30 No.3

A retrospective review of the histopathology and clinical information of primary lung cancer was performed to investigate the trends in the histologic type related to sex, age, and smoking history. During January 1988 and July 1995, 541 pateints were diagnosed as primary lung cancer at the Korea Univeristy Anam Hospital. Male (423) to female(118) ratio was 3. 6:1. The most frequent histologic type of lung cancer in male patients was squamous cell carcinoma (223 patients, 52.7%) followed by adenocarcinoma (86, 20.3%) and small cell carcinoma (85, 20.1 %). In female patients, adenocarcinoma (64, 54.2%) wa most common, which was followed by squamous cell carcinoma (22, 18.6%) and small cell carcinoma (22, 18. 6%). The incidence of adenocarnimoma had an increased tendency recently (14.3% in 1988, 33.3% in 1995)(P=0.019). The predominant type in smokers was squamous cell carcinoma; whereas adenocarcinoma was the most frequent type in non-smokers. The proportion of patients aged less than 40 years (younger group) was 4. 0% (n=22). Of them, adenocarcinoma (7) and small cell carcinoma (7) were most common. In patients older than 40 years (older group, n=519), 243 (46.8%) patients had squamous cell carcinoma, and 143 (27.6%) adenocarcinoma. As age increased, the prevalence of squamous cell carcinoma was increased (P=0.0005), adenocarcinoma decreased (P=NS), and small cell carcinoma remained unchanged. We suggest above data as a clinical guidance for management of primary lung cancer.

소 성장호르몬 cDNA 및 유전자의 분리와 대장균에서 cDNA 의 발현

김연수,정신우,김병한,이명희,설동섭,강현삼 ( Yeon Soo Kim,Shin Wu Jeong,Byung Han Kim,Myung Hee Lee,Dong Sub Sul,Hyen Sam Kang ) 생화학분자생물학회 1987 BMB Reports Vol.20 No.1

cDNA was prepared from poly(A)^+mRNA isolated from pituitaries and cloned in E. coli. It contains the coding sequence for bovine growth hormone(bGH), The cloned bGH cDNA was confirmed by colony hybridization, restriction enzyme mapping, and nucleotide sequencing. The cloned eDNA was modified to construct the plasmid that expresses the bovine growth hormone in bacteria. A genomic gene of bovine growth hormone was also cloned using the bGH cDNA as a probe.

Phase Change of Forward-Scattered Light in the Critical Region

김연수,김경란,Kim, Yeon Su,Kim, Gyeong Ran,Lee, Dong J. Korean Chemical Society 2001 Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society Vol.22 No.10

금은화산(金銀花散)의 LPS로 유도된 Raw 264.7 세포에서의 항염증 효과

김연수,김수진,지선영,황보민,Kim, Yeon-Soo,Kim, Su-Jin,Jee, Seon-Young,Hwangbo, Min 대한한방안이비인후피부과학회 2021 한방안이비인후피부과학회지 Vol.34 No.3

Objectives : The purpose of this study is to investigate the anti-inflammatory effect of Geumeunwha-san(GEHS) water extract in vitro. Methods : To evaluate the anti-inflammatory effect of GEHS, Raw 264.7 cells were pretreated with 10-300㎍/㎖ of GEHS for 1hr, and then exposed to 1㎍/㎖ of LPS. MTT assay was used to detect the cell viability. Productions of pro-inflammatory cytokines and NO were measured in culture media. By using immunoblot analysis, protein levels of iNOS and NF-𝜅B were determined. Results : In vitro study, cell viability assay on GEHS treatment of 10-300㎍/㎖ has no cytotoxicity in Raw 264.7 cells. Pretreated 100, 300㎍/㎖ of GEHS had significantly inhibited LPS-induced NO production. And also pretreatment of 100, 300㎍/㎖ GEHS had significantly decreased production of interleukin-6, -1𝛽 and tumor necrosis factor-𝛼 in LPS-activated Raw 264.7 cells. In addition, GEHS reduced LPS-mediated iNOS expression. Moreover I-𝜅B𝛼 expression was significantly induced by GEHS and NF-𝜅B expression was reduced by GEHS. Conclusions : These results suggest the clinical basis of GEHS for the treatment of inflammatory diseases.

Polycarbosilane이 코팅된 SiC와 Cu 혼합분말의 상압소결에 의한 Cu-30 vol% SiC 복합재료의 제조

김연수,권나연,정영근,오승탁,Kim, Yeon Su,Kwon, Na-Yeon,Jeong, Young-Keun,Oh, Sung-Tag 한국재료학회 2016 한국재료학회지 Vol.26 No.6

Cu-30 vol% SiC composites with relatively densified microstructure and a sound interface between the Cu and SiC phases were obtained by pressureless sintering of PCS-coated SiC and Cu powders. The coated SiC powders were prepared by thermal curing and pyrolysis of PCS. Thermal curing at $200^{\circ}C$ was performed to fabricate infusible materials prior to pyrolysis. The cured powders were heated treated up to $1600^{\circ}C$ for the pyrolysis process and for the formation of SiC crystals on the surface of the SiC powders. XRD analysis revealed that the main peaks corresponded to the ${\alpha}$-SiC phase; peaks for ${\beta}$-SiC were newly appeared. The formation of ${\beta}$-SiC is explained by the transformation of thermally-cured PCS on the surface of the initial ${\alpha}$-SiC powders. Using powder mixtures of coated SiC powder, hydrogen-reduced Cu-nitrate, and elemental Cu powders, Cu-SiC composites were fabricated by pressureless sintering at $1000^{\circ}C$. Microstructural observation for the sintered composites showed that the powder mixture of PCS-coated SiC and Cu exhibited a relatively dense and homogeneous microstructure. Conversely, large pores and separated interfaces between Cu and SiC were observed in the sintered composite using uncoated SiC powders. These results suggest that Cu-SiC composites with sound microstructure can be prepared using a PCS coated SiC powder mixture.

성인 여성 성추행 피해자들의 정신적 증상 : 강간 피해자들과의 비교

김연수,김성진,공보금,강제욱,문정준,전동욱,이상민,주현빈,정도운,Kim, Yeon-Sue,Kim, Sung-Jin,Kong, Bo-Geum,Kang, Je-Wook,Moon, Jung-Joon,Jeon, Dong-Wook,Lee, Sang-Min,Ju, Hyun-Bin,Jung, Do-Un 한국정신신체의학회 2016 정신신체의학 Vol.24 No.2

Objectives : According to the recent Korean National Police Agency report, rape victims were 17.1%, but sexual molestation victims were more than the rape victims by 78.0%. Despite many international reports about the occurrence of severe psychiatric symptoms in sexual molestation victims, there is no domestic research. Therefore in this study, we investigated psychiatric symptoms of sexual molestation victims, and we also compared it with psychiatric symptoms in rape victims. Methods : 58 women who visited Busan Smile Center within 3months after sexual violence were the study subjects. Questionnaire about sociodemographic and sexual violence related characteristics were retrospectively investigated. Of the psychiatric symptoms, Beck Depression Inventory(BDI), Beck Anxiety Inventory(BAI) for severity of depression and anxiety, and Impact of Event Scale-Revised(IES-R) to check the presence of posttraumatic stress disorder(PTSD) symptoms were used. Results : Of 58 sexual violence victims, sexual molestation victims were 36(62.1%) and rape victims were 22(37.9%). In sexual molestation victims, 80.6% had more than moderate severity of depression, 83.3% had more than moderate severity of anxiety, and 94.4% had significant scores at PTSD screening test. Compared with rape victims' psychiatric symptoms(each 95.5%, 95.5%, 95.5%) there were no significant difference. Conclusions : The majority of sexual molestation victims were also accompanied by depression, anxiety and PTSD symptoms as rape victims. There results suggest that appropriate assessment and early treatment for psychiatric symptom must be made in the early stage of injury in sexual molestation victims.