가축질병이 축산물가격에 미친 영향 분석

서대교(Daigyo Seo),신종협(Jonghyup Shin) 한국산업경제학회 2014 산업경제연구 Vol.27 No.6

벡터오차수정모형(VECM)을 사용하여 구제역이나 AI와 같은 가축질병이 쇠고기, 닭고기, 돼지고기 가격에 미치는 장·단기 효과를 파악해 보았다. 장기적으로 닭고기 가격은 쇠고기 가격과 양의 상관관계를, 돼지고기 가격은 쇠고기 가격과 음이 상관관계를 각각 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 단기분석에 의하면 쇠고기 가격과 닭고기 가격은 돼지고기 가격에 영향을 미치고, 돼지고기 가격은 쇠고기와 닭고기 가격 모두에 영향을 주는 것으로 밝혀졌다. 구제역은 1개월의 시차를 두고 쇠고기 가격을 하락시키는 것으로 나타났으며, 돼지고기 가격에는 두 기간 연속 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. AI는 돼지고기 가격에만 1개월의 시차를 두고 영향을 미치는 것으로 드러났다. AI가 닭고기 가격에 영향을 미치지 못한 이유는 수입확대, 보상금 지급, 계몽활동, 가격통제 등으로 닭고기 가격이 시장논리에 따라 책정되지 않았기 때문인 것으로 보인다. 단발성 가축질병 발생에는 구제역에 대한 축산물 가격의 충격반응함수가 AI에 대한 충격반응함수와 비슷한 패턴을 보였으나, 연속성 가축질병 발생의 경우에는 양자가 상호 다른 패턴을 따르는 것으로 나타났다. 쇠고기나 돼지고기 가격의 충격반응함수에 비해 닭고기 가격의 충격반응함수가 좀 더 오랜 기간 가축질병의 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났는데, 이는 닭고기 가격이 다른 축산물 가격에 비해 상대적으로 경직적이기 때문인 것으로 보인다. 또한 분석결과에 의하면 사람들은 쇠고기가 아닌 돼지고기를 닭고기의 대체재로 인식하고 있다는 것을 알 수 있다. Using the vector error correction model, we examine the effects of livestock diseases on corresponding prices. In the long run, chicken prices are positively correlated to beef prices, while pork prices are negatively correlated to beef prices. In the short run, beef and chicken prices have an effect on pork prices, which in turn have an effect both on beef and chicken prices. Foot-and-mouth disease would decrease beef prices with a one-month lag and pork prices with a two-month lag. AI has an effect on pork prices with a one-month lag. The reason AI has no effect on chicken prices is that chicken prices are not determined by a market system, but with the compensation scheme, export expansion, education, and price control. In a sporadic case of livestock diseases, the impulse responses of livestock prices by a shock to foot-and-mouth disease and AI would correspond to an identical pattern of behavior. However, in a continual case, a different pattern would be found. A shock to livestock disease would affect the impulse responses of chicken prices long, relative to beef and pork. This is because prices in chicken are stickier than those in pork and beef. In addition, we find that people regard pork―not beef―as a substitute for chicken.

축산물 가격의 비대칭성 검정

문홍성(Hong-Sung Mun),정지현(Ji-Hyun Jeong),김민경(MinKyoung Kim) 한국농업경제학회 2020 農業經濟硏究 Vol.61 No.1

The retail prices of meat products were often reported to be not responding appropriately to changes in producer prices, which would provide the impetus to analyze asymmetric price behaviors for various livestock products. This study examined the asymmetric price transmissions of domestic Korean beef, pork, chicken and egg products in marketing channel (from production to retail markets) by using both autoregressive distributed lag and asymmetric error correction models. Both daily and monthly prices were used to investigate whether there is any difference between daily and monthly price behaviors. In addition, influential livestock diseases such as FMD and HPAI were considered in the models to isolate the impacts of the disease on the prices. Asymmetric price transmissions were found for daily prices of products in all market relations, while such asymmetry was not detected for the products that use monthly prices. The existence of asymmetric price transmissions indicates that there are inefficient resource allocations, calling for efforts of all involved parties to improve meat product market efficiency.

축산물 가격의 비대칭전이에 관한 실증연구

강태훈 ( Tae Hoon Kang ) 한국식품유통학회 2011 食品流通硏究 Vol.28 No.2

If prices in the later (earlier) stage of marketing channel respond faster or deeper to the price increases in the earlier (later) stage of marketing channel than to decreases, we call it the positive (negative) APT. This paper considers four major livestock prices such as beef, hog, chicken, and egg prices in Korea. Potential APTs are tested for the stages from farm to wholesale as well as from wholesale to retail using daily prices. Since the prices in each marketing stages are cointegrated each other, the asymmetric error correction model is used. Beef market shows the positive APT in both cases, that is, farm to wholesale and wholesale to retail. Hog and egg markets show the positive APT in wholesale to retail case, while chicken market shows no APT. These results support for the customers` complains thus far that retail price rises fast when farm price rises but doesn`t fall or falls slow when farm price falls.

축산물 가격의 인과성 검정: 사료곡물에서 소매단계까지

양승룡 ( Seung Ryong Yang ) 한국농업경제학회 2003 農業經濟硏究 Vol.44 No.2

N/A A widespread belief in the livestock industry in Korea is that the feed price is largely affected by the prices of feed grains which are mostly supplied from abroad. It is also believed that the large dependency of feed grains on foreign sources results in weak international competitiveness. This article conducts causality tests between prices of corn and feed and between prices of feed and livestock. No statistical evidence is found to conclude that the international com price affects domestic feed prices. Rather, the exchange rate could explain the food price movements. In addition, the feed price does not appear to affect the livestock prices. Interpretations of the results and implications for the future work is outlined in the conclusion.

축산물 유통단계 간 가격발견과정 및 인과관계 분석

박문수,이경희,황성웅 한국농촌경제연구원 2012 농촌경제 Vol.35 No.1

The purpose of this study is to identify the price transmission mechanism in livestock markets in Korea as well as the market, in the marketing hierarchy, that has played important role in price discovery. To this end, this study used a time series analysis based on contemporaneous causal relationship, while taking into account the prices of substitutes as well. It showed that the retail price in beef markets and the wholesale prices in pork markets are most important in price discovery. When a short-term impact occurs, the producer price explains most of forecast error variance in beef and the wholesale price explains most of it in pork. We expect that the result of the study would contribute to understanding price trends and forecasting livestock prices.

Structural Changes in Korean Livestock Prices

( Oh Bok Kwon ) 한국농촌경제연구원 2001 Journal of Rural Development Vol.24 No.2

A vector autoregressive (VAR) model with grid search that allows parameters to vary with time was applied to investigate the structural break points and the speed of adjustment for Korean livestock prices. Our results suggest that VAR for Korean beef prices experienced a rather rapid structural shift in the mid 1987 while pork prices showed gradual structural break in the early 1991. Chicken prices experienced a structural change centered on late 1984. Beef, pork, and chicken prices experienced a structural change in the early 1980s.

농촌 읍면지역 축사가 지가에 미치는 영향 분석 : 부여군을 대상으로

김지현,손휘주,이현승,여혜진 대한국토·도시계획학회 2024 國土計劃 Vol.59 No.2

본 연구는 농촌 지가를 대상으로 축사의 공간적 근접성이미치는 외부불경제효과를 규명하고자 한다. 이를 통해 축사와 공간적으로 근접한 농촌 주거지의 외부불경제 효과를 해소하기 위해 토지이용 규제로써 일련의 거리기반 규제를 실행하는 경우의실익을 파악하고, 기피시설 입지로 인한 지가 하락을 상쇄하는실익에 대한 정책 함의를 도출한다. 연구의 공간적 대상인 부여군은 축사 입지가 불허되는 도시지역 지정 규모가 전체 면적대비 6.95%밖에 되지 않아 군 내 넓은곳에 축사가 입지할 수 있으며 악취 민원이 가장 빈번한 500m2 미만(국민권익위원회, 2018)인 축사가 전체의 59.3%(873개)로 축사 입지관리에 관한 지역 논쟁이 첨예할 가능성이 크다. 또한, 부여군은 2022년에 농림축산식품부가 농촌공간 재구조화 및 재생 지원에 관한 법률 시행(’24.3)에 앞서 농촌특화지구 하위규정마련을 위해 농촌특화지구 실증사업지로 선정되었으며, 본 연구에서는 부여군 지자체와 협조하여 내부 자료를 구득하여 사용하였다. 분석 대상은 농촌 지가의 형성 요인인 축사이다. 지가에 영향을 미치는 요인은 용도지역과 공적 제한을 받는 지역/지구의 지정 여부이지만 농지와 산지 비중이 높은 관리지역, 농림지역, 자연환경보전지역은 도시지역보다 용도지역의 지가 영향력이 낮고, 토지용도(지목), 특히 주거용지, 상업용지, 공업용지, 농지, 목장용지(축사), 창고용지의 영향력이 높다고 알려져 있다(채미옥, 2021). 이를 참고하여, 본 연구는 농촌 내 필지와 축사의 공간적 근접 관계가 지가 형성과 유의한 관계가 있다는 연구 가설을세우고, 어떤 조건에서 축사와의 접근성이 지가에 영향을 미치는지를 파악하고자 한다. 축사와 지가의 관계에 관한 연구 질문에 답하기 위해 본 연구는부동산 가격을 추정할 때 사용하는 헤도닉 가격모형에 기반하여회귀분석을 실시한다. 특히, 축사로부터의 거리와 토지이용 특성변수 간 상호작용을 분석함으로써, 토지이용 특성에 따라 축사와지가의 관계가 어떻게 달라지는지 규명한다. 분석에는 국가공간정보포털에서 취득한 2022년 1월 31일 기준 개별공시지가와2022년 부여군 축산과의 축사 정보에서 구축한 축사 정보를 사용하였다. 본 연구는 주요 공변량을 통제하는 헤도닉 모형으로 축사와 지가 간 관계를 분석함으로써, 축사가 지가에 미치는 선형및 비선형의 효과를 실증하고 정책 시사점을 도출한다는 점에서의의가 있다. In rural areas, livestock farms are known to affect the residential environment and land values. However, few studies have been conducted on the spatial effects of external diseconomies derived from proximity to livestock barns at the micro-spatial unit level. Accordingly, we investigated the relationship between livestock barns and land prices using Buyeo-gun as a case study. We used individually declared land values and proximity to livestock farms at the lot level from 2022 and conducted regression analysis based on the hedonic price model. In particular, because land use regulations in rural areas greatly affect the locations of livestock farms and land prices, we analyzed the linear and nonlinear relationships between livestock farms and land prices in special-purpose areas. Results showed that the effects of proximity to livestock barns on land prices varied according to the type of special-purpose area. Specifically, in urban and planned control areas, where most rural neighborhoods are situated, land prices decreased as proximity to livestock barns increased. These results suggested that distance-based regulations on the present locations and future installations of livestock barns must be considered to create pleasant residential environments in rural areas.

Livestock price change after anti-corruption law using VAR

전상곤,하수안,이균식 충남대학교 농업과학연구소 2018 Korean Journal of Agricultural Science Vol.45 No.1

The Anti-corruption Law has been enforced since Sep. 28, 2016 to prevent public servants from colluding with people for political favors and financial gain by giving bribes to public servants. Generally, most people in Korea think that the law has had a positive effect on society. Under this law, people believe that our society has become more transparent. However, domestic producers think the law has had negative effects on the Korean livestock industry. Statistics from the domestic livestock industry show that the Hanwoo price has dropped after the law was enforced. This study attempts to show how livestock prices in the Korean livestock industry have changed after the enactment of the law. We chose three important livestock industries, Hanwoo, pork, and chicken, to determine and compare the effects of the law on them. For the analysis, we used a time-series model, VAR, to incorporate the interactions of the three industries. We selected the average wholesale prices of these industries. Daily prices during the last 5 years were used to estimate and forecast the impacts of the law. The results show that the price of Hanwoo decreased after the enforcement of the law; however, the other livestock prices did not decrease. Additionally, we clearly saw this negative effect on the Hanwoo industry during the high demand season and New Year’s Day (solar and lunar together).

축산물가격지수의 산출 및 품목별 기여도 측정

김유진(Eu Jin Kim),윤병삼(Byung Sam Yoon) 한국농식품정책학회 2017 농업경영정책연구 Vol.44 No.1

The primary objective of the study is to develop a livestock price index and determine how much the individual index components contribute to the variation of the livestock price index. The livestock price index calculated using a Laspeyres index formula is composed of beef, pork, chicken and egg at the wholesale level, and weighted by the production amount from 2007 to 2009(base period). Results show that the newly developed livestock price index(LPI) in this study has a cointegration relationship, or a long-run equilibrium relationship with the livestock index(LI) that is a subindex of the consumer price index(CPI). Of the components of the livestock price index, pork contributes the most to the fluctuations of the overall index, followed by beef. The average contribution of pork and egg is a negative value respectively, suggesting that they generally contribute to the decrease in livestock price index.

Situation and Outlook of Livestock Sector

( Youn Sang Choi ),( Sang Kon Jeon ),( Dong Hyun Sung ),( Seung Youll Shin ) 한국농촌경제연구원 2001 Journal of Rural Development Vol.24 No.1

This report provides long-run baseline projections for the livestock sector through 2011. For beef cattle industry, as the beef cattle numbers are forecast to show a steady growth until 2007, the farm price of beef cattle are forecast to drop sharply after 2007. For dairy and egg industry, a steady increase in demand is forecast to induce a stable growth of those industry until 2011. While both the pork production and imports are forecast to increase steadily until 2011, the hog price is forecast to show a moderate increase until 2004 and then to be on a decrease after 2004. For chicken industry, until 2011, it is forecast that the chicken production will on its current level and its price will show a downward trend.