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주거지원 대상자의 중도탈락 위험에 대한 연구 : 자율중도탈락과 강제중도탈락의 경쟁위험 분석을 중심으로
홍명기,공정식 사단법인 한국안전문화학회 2020 안전문화연구 Vol.- No.10
This study explored factors that affect the risk of dropout within support period of the housing support project among the rehabilitation protection projects of Korea Rehabilitation Agency. The subjects of this analysis were 3,128 people who supported by the project from 2005 to September 2009. As for the analysis method, survival analysis was used to consider the difference in the support period of each subject. Also, the dropout was classified into autonomous dropout and forced dropout according to each cause, and the competing-risk analysis was conducted considering that the two events are in competition with each other. The summary of the analysis results is as follows. When the risk of total dropout was used as a dependent variable, it was found that the support before release, age, education level and ex-crime type had statistically significant. In the result of competing-risk analysis, only age and education level were significant in the case of autonomous dropout. On the other hand, in case of forced dropout, the support before release, the time of revision, age, number of ex-crime and type of ex-crime were statistically significant. The two types of dropouts were compared. 1) The variables put in this study were better predicted the risk of forced dropout than the risk of autonomous dropout. 2) The support before release, the time of revision, and the previous disposition of criminal justice institutions were significant only in the forced dropout model. Finally, the interpretation of the above results and policy implications were discussed in conclusions and suggestions.
홍명기,김재운 한국초등체육학회 2018 한국초등체육학회지 Vol.24 No.3
본 연구는 초등교사의 학교스포츠클럽 운영에 관한 사례연구이다. 본 연구에서는 연구참여자들의 학교스포츠클럽 운영 동인과 중단 요인을 살펴봄으로써 해결해야 할 구조적 문제들을 공론화하고 운영의 지속성을 보장할 수 있는 방안을 탐색하는데 목적이 있다. 자료수집은 심층면담, 관찰, 문헌연구를 활용하였다. 자료분석은 면담 자료를 반복 적으로 읽으면서 개념을 도출한 후, 각각의 개념을 유기적으로 연결하여 범주화하고 주제화하였다. 자료의 진실성 을 확보하기 위해 자료수집 경로를 다각화하고 구성원 검토, 동료 참고인과 협의 과정을 거쳤다. 수집된 자료에서 총 14개의 개념과 5개의 하위 범주, 2개의 상위 범주를 도출하였다. 학교스포츠클럽 운영 동인은 학생의 욕구 반 영, 교사의 가용 역량, 교직 문화로 범주화되었다. 그리고 학교스포츠클럽 중단 요인은 부가적 업무, 안전사고에 대 한 위협으로 범주화되었다. 초등학교에서 학교스포츠클럽을 내실화하기 위해서는 정규 교육과정으로의 편입, 포괄 적 동아리 활동 개념의 도입, 교사의 교육활동 보장이 필요하다는 결론을 얻게 되었다. This study was a case study of elementary school teachers' operation of school sports clubs. The purpose of this study was to investigate participants’ motivation for operating school sports clubs and factors that stopped such operation. We discussed structural issues to be solved and tried to find ways to ensure sustainability of operations. Individual in-depth interviews, non-participant observation, and literature review were conducted to collect data. The data analysis was conducted by reading the interview data repeatedly, drawing out concepts, categorizing and conceptually linking each concept organically. In order to ensure the authenticity of the data, we diversified data collecting methods and utilized member review and peer consulting. As results of the study, we drew 14 concepts, 5 sub-categories, and 2 categories. The motivation for the operation of the school sports clubs was categorized into reflection of students' needs, teachers' available capacity, and teaching culture. School sports clubs’ disruption factors were categorized as additional work and threats to safety accidents. In order to strengthen the school sports clubs in elementary schools, the conclusion from the study suggests settlement of sports clubs within the regular education curriculum, introduction of concepts of expansive club activities, and guarantee to teachers’ educational activities.
주거지원 대상 출소자의 지원 기간 내 재범 위험에 대한 탐색적 연구
홍명기,공정식 한국교정학회 2020 矯正硏究 Vol.30 No.3
This study explored factors that affect the risk of excluding the support due to recidivism of the recipients within the support period of the housing support projects among the rehabilitation protection projects of the Korea Rehabilitation Agency. The subjects of this analysis were released prisoners who applied and supported by the project from 2005 to September 2009. Continuous survival analysis was used to supplement the limitations of existing logistic regression analysis for the loss of information about the duration of an event (recidivism). The summary of the analysis results is as follows. First, 2.76 % of all recipients of the housing support projects were excluded because of recidivism within the support period. On a three-month basis of analysis, the risk ratio was the highest at 0.0046 (0.46 out of 100) over 7-9 months period. In addition, the cumulative risk ratio of the entire period showed that if the recidivism is not committed for over six years after the start of the support, the likelihood of excluding the support in the future is quite low. Next, the results of the cox regression analysis affecting the risk of exclusion of support due to recidivism showed that health conditions, number of convictions, and the type of committed crime had statistically significant effects. Specifically, those who are in good health, have two or more criminal records, or have a history of village affairs, were found to have increased risk of excluding the support compared to those who are not. Finally, the interpretation of the above results and policy implications were discussed in conclusions and suggestions.