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成長曲線을 이용한 橫斷面 分析에 의한 耐久財의 長期需要豫測 模型
鄭圭錫 한국경영과학회 1985 韓國經營科學會誌 Vol.10 No.1
In this paper, the approach getting a total demand by forecasting the new demand and the replacement demand separately and adding them is used for long term forecasting of durable goods. Cross country analysis using the income as an independent variable and S-shaped growth curve as a fitting model is developed as method of forecasting new demand. To get the replacement demand the methods using the number of ownership and the replacement rate and the methods using the past demand and the distribution of the product life are proposed. And the theoretical explanation for product life cycle's diversity, which is the one of the major considerations in the long term forecasting, is attempted by the combination of the new demand and the replacement demand patterns. This is applicated to the long term forecasting of Korean passenger cars.