국가건전재정 확립에 영향을 미치는 제도적 및 비제도적 요인에 관한 연구

박창규 고려대학교 행정대학원 2017 국내석사

Korea is experiencing a decline in corporate investment and a rise in personal and self-employed people’s debt due to the slowdown of exports and domestic demand combining with the increasing low fertility rate and rapid aging population. Against this backdrop, the Korean government has drawn up complementary budget almost every year since 2008 in order to stimulate the economy. However, such expansionary fiscal policies have inevitably deteriorated overall fiscal balance and increased national debt. Amid the national fiscal condition is in a bad situation, fiscal authorities are making more efforts such as enacting a fiscal consolidation law, improving fiscal information disclosure system and establishing an integrated management system for subsidy in order to appropriately manage present and future fiscal risks. The effectiveness of these policy efforts depends on the attitude and capability of public officials in charge of fiscal affairs. This research finds that fiscal education, especially budget education, for public official is one of the crucial factors influencing on the establishment of sustainable fiscal soundness in the perspective of expenditure budget. The significance of this research lies in its conclusion that systematic, sustainable and effective education system is needed by setting up and operating a professional education institute for fiscal affairs and budget. In addition, this research suggests that the financial authorities need to consider the introduction of national fiscal (budget) certification system and licensing fee payment to establish a healthy fiscal system. Also, this research proposes institutional and non-institutional problems and improvements for the establishment of sound national finance. Keywords: sound national finance (sustainable fiscal soundness), fiscal risks, fiscal consolidation law, professional education institute for fiscal affairs and budget, national budget certification system

國家財政上 糧穀管理基金의 收支改善策에 關한 硏究

신오식 漢陽大學校 1988 국내석사

豫算審議의 實質化를 위한 憲法政策的 硏究

임인규 건국대학교 대학원 2008 국내박사

The budget is an important method for national policy execution and material measures to ensure human dignity and worth and to actualize basic rights. From this perspective Article 54 Item 1 of the Constitution prescribes that the National Assembly shall deliberate and confirm the national budget bill. However when you look at the budget decision making processes which have been engaged in so far, the draft budget prepared and submitted by the government was confirmed at the National Assembly as it is. This means that the budget deliberation right of the National Assembly prescribed by the constitution is not in effect properly. The weakening of Constitutional norm of the National Assembly's budget deliberation right is a constitutional problem which needs to be confronted constitutionally and politically. From the constitutional perspective, one cannot deny that the weakening of norm of the right to deliberate budget has it's origins in distinguishing of 'budget' and 'law', budget belonging to the basic execution criteria, and the National Assembly participating in the deliberation for it's control. From this point of view, the new understanding of budget, substance of the right to deliberate the budget and review for constitutional interpretation of legal budget theory, the common view is needed. On the other hand, as the National Finance Act era is approaching, the need for the National Assembly to move away from microscopic regulation focused budget deliberation of previous era to macroscopic budget deliberation as a nation's policy decision maker exists. Related to this, while the recent legal budget theory acknowledges the necessity if the finance regulation for the public finance democracy's substantialization, it is insisted that the principle of legal budget is useless from the functional perspective of budget right's rational distribution. However when you look at the history of Article 54 Item 1 of the Constitution as the legal budget theory, the Preussen empire's formal law which tried to emphasize the monarchy financial rights, was passed as the Japan's constitution, the budget became part of the execution right and it was rationalized that the National Assembly's deliberation was to be included in the administration. This, in fact, was mimicked by the constitution at the beginning of the founding of our government. Even if it is deemed that, as the will of the constitution at the time of country establishment was to include the legal characteristics of the budget into the execution area, the formality of it's existence was differentiated, order of norm to fit the society's reality changes is needed and for these demands, suitable answer has to be presented from the constitutional political perspective. With the above in mind, as you can see from the basic argument of the principle of legal budget, the Constitution stipulates the existence format of law and budget differently, but it cannot be deemed that the legal characteristics of the two were differentiated as well. In addition, the functional perspective of rational distribution of the budget from legal budget theory confuses practical problem of following two; normative question of who is the budget decision maker prescribed by the constitution and who would be able to plan/deliberate/confirm the budget most efficiently. Therefore considering the characteristics of the budget of which the right to introduce is under government's control, which is not subject to refusal right, and which is separately stipulated as regular law by the Constitution such as the amount increase or restriction of new expenditure item without the approval of the government, deliberation and resolution of budget in budget law form is deemed possible from the constitutional interpretation. This principle of legal budget can greatly improve participants' re-organization of the budget and budget custom which have been operated in violation of the constitution/law, improve clarity of the budget when considering law's estimation ability and improve autonomous of the administration and role separation between the National Assembly and the Administration. Furthermore, along with the role separation of the Standing Committee and the Budget and Accounts committee, the substantialization of the budget consideration by the standing committee can be actualized, improvement of open and clear budget decision making process and solving of disagreement between the budget and the law and the improve the norm power of the budget execution and as such, the substantialization of the budget deliberation can greatly be improved. Nevertheless, the introduction of the principle of legal budget cannot be sufficient by itself or be the only alternative plan to fully recover the legal norm of the budget deliberation's violation of the constitution. This means that in addition to the introduction of the principle of legal budget, analysis and systematically improvement for the problem which have been suggested so far from the custom of budget organizational rights initiatives have to be considered constitutionally and politically. From this point of view, the following method of legislation can be suggested as systematical alternative for substantialization of the budget deliberation. First, it is needed introduction of advance deliberation process for the nation's finance management plant. Second, the Special Committee on Budget and Accounts shall work with the Standing Committee. While the Budget acd Accounts Committee works for the macroscopic budget, the Standing Committee shall be focused around so called administration and re-organize the method and procedures of National Assembly's budget deliberation so that it's judgment can be substantialized. Third, classification standard of the budget organization system which is at the discretion of the Minister of Budget and Planning shall be stipulated by the law to promote it's objectivity. In addition

국가채무가 국가신용도에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증연구

양해진 충북대학교 2021 국내박사

It is hard to deny that after the 1997 foreign exchange crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis, a consumer society without income growth and a stock market rally without an increase in corporate profits have only been supported by an increase in the money supply caused by the central bank's quantitative easing. Globally, the economic crisis is aggravated by unpredictable situations such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, as Korea enters an era of continuous economic slowdown due to the fixation of the low growth structure, the stagnation of the real estate market, and the ultra-low fertility and aging population, the productive economically active population decreases, while the deterioration of the distribution structure continues, leading to the aging of the elderly. We are living in an era that warns of crises in the soundness of the national fiscal, such as the increase in the dependency ratio and the expansion increase of welfare spending to build a social safety net such as public pensions and health insurance. In particular, since the inauguration of the current government, the national debt has been increasing exponentially, and as the populist expansionary fiscal policy has been continuously pursued under the pretext of COVID-19, the amount of expenditure is increasing exponentially, serving as a catalyst for the deterioration of the national fiscal soundness. Looking at the rate and size of the increase in national debt, it is 47.3% in 2021, which already exceeds the fiscal soundness indicator (40-45%), 51.2% in 2022, 55.0% in 2023, 58.6% in 2024, close to 60%, 61.7 in 2025 %, it can be seen that it is rapidly increasing to 75.5% in 2030. Therefore, in this study, whether tax increases or tax cuts to increase the “national finance” in terms of taxation, whether the generation responsible for who will bear the “national debt” in terms of responsibility, better welfare benefits for “people's happiness” in terms of welfare, In policy decision-making on the three factors of education environment and employment-related expenditure, the trilemma phenomenon was used as the analysis frame of the study to lay the theoretical foundation, and the rapid expansion of the national debt caused by the expanded fiscal expenditure was the result of the national credit rating and economic crisis. The purpose of this study was to analyze the impact on the economy, and the research goal is to first diagnose the cause of the rapid expansion of the current government's national debt. Second, the effect of national debt on national credit is analyzed through empirical research. Third, we analyze the effect of a surge in national debt on the decline of national credit in the case of abuse of populist expansionary fiscal policy, which is a wasteful cash equivalent. Fourth, the impact of the surge in national debt on national fiscal soundness and economic catastrophe will be examined by examining overseas cases, and the current growth rate of national debt in Korea and the increase in necessary fixed expenditures in the welfare sector will be compared and analyzed through the trend of the increase in the national debt ratio. For the empirical analysis of this study, a total of 33 OECD member countries were targeted, and the data were limited to 9 years from 2011 to 2019. Statistical analysis was performed by extracting and editing data such as the national debt ratio, economic growth rate, employment rate, low fertility rate and aging rate of each country. To summarize the results of the analysis, Hypothesis 1 in Research Model A puts all independent variables in a stepwise selection method and conducted multiple regression analysis to examine the correlation and influence on the national credit rating, which is the dependent variable. As a result, the employment rate and the aging rate increase. was found to have a relatively more significant effect on the number of dependent diseases compared to other variables. However, for a detailed analysis on the national debt ratio, which is an important variable for the subject of this study, Hypothesis 2 to Hypothesis 4 include two independent variables. Each was selected for analysis. As a result, it was confirmed that the national debt ratio had a significant effect on the dependent variable. In Hypothesis 5, a simple linear regression analysis was performed and the results were compared with the multiple regression analysis. As a result, the variables with different national debt ratios in Hypothesis 2~4 It was found that the effect on national credit rating, which is a dependent variable, was much greater when combined with Also, in Research Model B, using the dependent variable as the national debt ratio and analyzing the effects of each independent variable, all variables had a significant effect. In particular, the lower fertility rate, the aging rate, the economic growth rate, and the employment rate showed a greater effect in the order of It was confirmed that the low fertility rate and the aging rate are important variables for the increase in the national debt ratio. As shown in the above analysis results, Korea has already entered an aging society with an ultra-low fertility rate, and the necessary mandatory expenditure is continuously increasing. In addition, the red light on national fiscal soundness has been turned on as cash equivalents of the COVID-19 subsidy increase. As seen in the precedents of countries in financial crisis in Europe such as Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain, the increase in national debt acts as a factor that lowers the national credit rating, causing economic crises such as finance, and the government's moratorium and bankruptcy. It cannot be denied that there is a potential risk that could lead to a national bankruptcy crisis. Although the economic recovery is positive, we cannot be optimistic about the Korean economy as monetary policy changes such as interest rate hikes in key currency countries are expected. In the future, if expanded financial expenditure is indispensable in a financial situation in which Korea needs to secure more financial resources due to the ultra-low fertility rate and aging population, and a continuous increase in the welfare field is expected, then it is the safety net and last bastion of the nation and the national community in its implementation. In organizing and executing the national budget, it is judged that it is necessary to determine the fiscal policy to control the rate of increase in national debt and manage national credit in consideration of the current fiscal capacity and domestic and international economic conditions. 1997년 외환위기와 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 이후 소득증가 없는 소비사회, 기업이윤증가 없는 증시 랠리가 오직 중앙은행의 양적완화로 인한 통화량증가로 지탱해 온건 부인하기 어려운 사실이다. 전 세계적으로 코로나 19 팬데믹(pandemic)과 같이 예측할 수 없는 상황으로 경제적 위기는 가중되고 있다. 특히 우리나라는 저성장구조의 고착화로 인한 지속적인 경기둔화, 부동산 시장의 침체, 초저출산 및 고령화 인구시대로 접어들면서 생산성 있는 경제활동 인구는 감소하는 반면 분배구조의 악화가 지속되면서 노인부양률 증가 및 공적연금, 건강보험 등 사회안전망 구축을 위한 복지지출의 팽창증가 등 국가재정 건전성에 있어서 위기를 경고하는 시대에 살고 있다. 특히 현 정부 출범 이후 국가채무는 폭증하고 있으며 코로나 19를 명분 삼아 포퓰리즘성 확대재정정책이 지속적으로 추진되면서 지출 규모는 기하급수적으로 증가하고 있어 국가재정 건전성 악화에 기폭제 역할을 하고 있다. 국가채무의 증가속도와 규모를 보면 2021년 47.3%로 이미 재정건전성지표(40~45%)를 초과, 2022년 51.2%, 2023년 55.0%, 2024년 58.6%로 60%에 근접, 2025년 61.7%, 2030년 75.5%로 급격히 상승하고 있음을 알 수 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 조세측면에서 ‘국가재정’을 늘리기 위한 증세 및 감세 여부, 책임측면에서 ‘국가채무’를 누가 부담할 것인지에 대한 책임세대 여부, 복지측면에서 ‘국민행복’을 위한 더 나은 복지혜택, 교육환경, 고용관련 지출이라는 3요소에 대한 정책결정에 있어서 트릴레마(trilemma)현상을 연구의 분석 틀로 하여 이론적 토대를 마련하고 확대재정지출로 인한 국가채무의 급팽창이 국가신용도와 경제위기에 미치는 영향을 분석하는데 그 목적을 두었으며, 연구 목표로는 첫째, 현 정부의 국가채무의 급팽창 원인이 무엇인지를 진단한다. 둘째, 국가채무가 국가신용도에 미치는 영향을 실증연구를 통해 분석한다. 셋째, 소모적인 현금성 지출인 포퓰리즘성 확대재정정책을 남용하는 경우 국가채무급증이 국가신용도 하락에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 넷째, 국가채무급증이 국가재정 건전성과 경제적 파국에 미치는 영향을 해외 사례를 살펴보고 우리나라 현재 국가채무증가 속도와 복지분야의 필요적 고정지출 증가를 국가채무비율 증가 추이를 통해 비교분석한다. 본 연구의 실증분석을 위하여 OECD회원국 중 총 33개국을 대상국가로 하였으며, 2011년부터 2019년까지 9년간 데이터로 한정하였다. 각국의 국가채무비율과 경제성장율, 고용율, 저출산율과 고령화율 등의 데이터를 추출하여 편집하여 통계분석을 실행하였다. 그 분석결과를 종합하면 연구모형A에서 가설1은 각 독립변수들을 전부 단계선택방법으로 투입하여 다중회귀분석을 실시하여 종속변수인 국가신용도에 대한 상관성과 영향력 등을 살펴 본 결과 고용율과 고령화율의 증가가 다른 변수들에 비하여 상대적으로 종속병수에 더 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났으나 본 연구의 주제에 중요변수인 국가채무비율에 관한 구체적인 분석을 위하여 가설2부터 가설4까지는 독립변수의 수를 두 개씩 선택하여 분석을 실시하였다. 그 결과 국가채무비율이 종속변수에 유의한 영향을 미치는 것을 확인하였고, 가설5에서는 단순선형회귀분석을 실시하여 다중회귀분석과의 결과를 비교해 본 결과 가설2~가설4에서 국가채무비율이 다른 변수와 조합을 이룰 때 종속변수인 국가신용도에 미치는 영향이 훨씬 큰 것으로 나타났다. 또한 연구모형B에서는 종속변수를 국가채무비율로 하여 각 독립변수들이 미치는 영향을 분석해 본 결과 모든 변수가 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났고 특히 저출산율, 고령화율, 경제성장율, 고용율 순서로 더 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되어 국가채무비율증가에는 저출산율과 고령화율이 중요한 변수임이 확인되었다. 위 분석 결과에서 나타났듯이 현재 우리나라는 초저출산율, 고령화 사회로 이미 진입하였고 이에 따른 필요적 의무지출이 지속적으로 증가하고 있는 상황이다. 또한 코로나 19 지원금의 현금성 지출도 증가됨에 따라 국가재정 건전성에 빨간불이 켜진 상황이다. 그리스, 아일랜드, 이탈리아, 포르투갈, 스페인과 같이 유럽의 재정위기 국가의 선례에서 보듯이 국가채무증가는 국가신용도를 하락하는 요인으로 작동하여 금융 등 경제위기를 초래하며 정부의 지불유예(moratorium) 및 파산 등 국가부도위기에 이를 수 있는 잠재적 위험성을 안고 있음을 부인할 수가 없다. 경기회복이 긍정적이라고 하나 기축통화국들의 금리 인상 등 금융정책 변화가 예상되는 가운데 우리나라 경제를 낙관적으로만 보고 있을 수 없다. 향후 우리나라는 초저출산, 고령화로 인한 더 많은 재원확보를 필요로 하고 복지분야의 지속적인 증가가 예측되는 재정상황에서 확대재정지출이 필요불가결한 것이라면 그 집행에 있어서 국가와 국민 공동체의 안전망이자 최후의 보루인 국가재정을 편성하고 집행함에 있어서는 현재 재정여력과 국내 및 국제경제상황 등을 고려하여 국가채무증가 속도를 조절하고 국가신용도를 관리하는 재정정책을 결정하여야 할 것으로 판단된다.

國家財政과 安保政策에 대한 考察

배상수 湖南大學校 福祉行政大學院 2005 국내석사

한반도는 과거부터 현재까지 주변의 강대국과 대치하여 왔고 이를 위하여 수많은 전쟁을 치러왔다. 그러나 역사의 수레바퀴 속에서 수난의 역사는 돌고 돌아 50여년전의 광복의 기쁨을 맞이하게 되었다. 이러한 역사의 교훈을 언젠가는 잊어버리게 하는 그 무엇인가가 있었기 때문에 악순환은 반복되었던 것이다. 그것은 다름이 아닌 항상 평화가 오래 지속된 연후에 비극을 맞이하게 되었다는 것이다. 즉 국가안보를 뒷전으로 하고 향락을 즐기며 주변 국가들의 기도를 살피지 못하는 데서 기인한 것이다. 우리는 이 시점에서 주변국을 살펴볼 필요가 있다. 중국의 인구는 한국의 26배인 세계 제1의 인구대국이며 러시아의 영토는 한국의 170배에 이르는 세계 제1의 국토의 거국이고, 미국은 국방비에서 한국의 26배에 달하고 세계국방비의 반 이상을 지출하는 군사대국이며, 일본은 국내총생산(GDP)이 한국의 4배인 세계 제2의 경제 대국이다. 이렇듯 우리나라 주변에는 항상 초강대국들로 하여 항상 우리를 넘보고 있었으며 이러한 지정학적 구도는 앞으로도 지속될 전망이다. 그럼으로 우리 대한민국은 역사적 교훈을 바탕으로 지정학적 상황을 겸허하고 숙명적으로 받아들이고 지혜의 강국이 될 수 있는 생존전략을 모색해야 할 때이다. 이것이 본 논문에서 알아 보고자하는 현 상황과 국가재정에 부합된 안보정책에 대한 고찰을 하려고 한다. 자주국방을 위한 국가재정의 지원은 어느 정도 있어야 하는가가 관건인데 주변국의 역량을 살펴보았을 때 우리의 국가재정으로 인접국가에 능가하는 국방력을 보유한다는 것은 상당히 어려운 것이며 또 현 시점에서 동맹국만을 믿고 그들의 의지에 따라 국가의 존망을 맡기는 무책임한 행동만은 할 수 없다. 그러므로 현 국가재정을 고려한 안보정책의 방향을 제시하기 위하여 과거 사례를 통하여 미래를 전망하고자 한다. 이에 따라 본 논문에서는 국가재정과 안보정책의 상관관계에 대하여 과거사례와 국가재정이 안보정책에 미치는 변천사를 살펴보았으며 현재 우리가 알고 있는 문제점을 찾아내고 이에 대한 앞으로의 보완방향을 제시하였다. 첫째, 안보정책을 수립하기 위한 재정확보 활동의 제도적 보완 방향이다. 현행 헌법상에 제시된 국회의 동의 절차는 사전에 어느 정도 조율이 되어 형식적인 승인 절차에 불과하게 되었으며, 그 이면에 지배적인 역할을 수행하는 것은 대통령, 국방부, 이익집단, 정당, 일반국민, 여론, 대중매체 등이 있다. 이러한 모든 것들이 공감대를 형성하여 필요하다고 인정되고 그렇게 이루어지는 것은 아니며 정책에 따라 어느 한쪽 의견에 치중되어 결정되는 경우가 많이 발생 된다 이러한 것을 제도적으로 보완할 필요가 있다. 둘째, 국가안보를 위한 적정한 재정의 마련이다. 장차 한반도를 대상으로 펼쳐질 주변 강대국들의 추이에 따라 상황에 부합된 국방비의 확충이 더욱더 절실히 요구되고 있으며 이를 위해서 현재 군 위주의 안보정책에서 경제 전문가와 민·관·학·군이 유기적인 관계를 유지하며 자주국방을 위한 국가재정마련에 군 외부의 연구소가 절실히 필요하며 국방부 내부의 인적구조도 경제를 잘 알고 이를 활용하여 안보정책을 구상할 수 있는 우수한 인재가 등용되어야 한다. 끝으로 안보정책을 수립 시 기본적으로 고려해야할 사항을 살펴보면, 과거에는 국가보위 위주로 우선적으로 수립되었으나 현재는 안보정책을 수립할 때는 국가재정 상태에 따라 영향을 받는다. 그렇기 때문에 국민의 지지와 신뢰를 얻을 수 있는 적극적인 홍보활동이 필요할 것이다. 이제 대한민국은 최소한의 국가안보를 보장할 수 있는 단계에 이르렀다. 그러나 국제 경쟁사회에서 국가 신용도와 국가재정의 악화로 인하여 안보정책의 변화를 가져올 수 있는 많은 경우의 수가 존재하고 있다. 이를 해결하기 위하여 우리 대한민국은 국가재정을 튼튼히 하면서 자주적인 국방태세를 확립할 수 있는 안보정책의 수립과 추진이 필요할 것이다. 그러나 국가재정은 일반 사재정과 다르게 사용할 것을 결정하여 놓고 재원을 마련한다는 것이 큰 특징이다. 즉, 꼭 필요하다면 얼마든지 마련할 수 있는 것이 국가재정이지만 이것이 현재 시점에서는 얼마나 필요한가에 대한 연구가 절실히 필요하겠다. The relationship of the Korean peninsula and the world powers surrounding it has been--and still is--under a considerable amount of tension, which, in many cases, have even led war. Despite such sufferings dealt in the past, history granted Korea the joy of restoration of independence from Japan 50 years ago. But vicious cycles are born by forgetting the lessons learned through history; tragedy is said to come about after a long era of serenity. Enjoyment without alertness of adjacent nations, losing the sense of national security, would put our nation in danger once again. We must pay attention to our neighboring countries: China, being the most populous nation on the planet, has 26 times of our population; Russia is the largest country on the surface of the earth, its territory being 170 times the size of Korea; the United States of America spends half the national defense expenditures of the world, which amounts to 26 times of that of Korea; Japan has the second largest economy in the world, its GDP being 4 times of ours. Our neighbors are super-powers in the world today, and their status is unlikely to change in the near future. Therefore, based on what we learned from our history, we must humbly accept our geopolitical situation as fate and find our strategy to survive as a strong and wise nation. This thesis is intended to contribute to such purpose by seeking for a national security policy that fits our national finance. The magnitude of financial support for self-reliant defense is a key aspect to our security policy. A quick review of the capacity of neighboring nations yields the conclusion that a defensive capability that surpasses them is simply not realistic. But that doesn't mean that we can rely entirely on our allies and put the fate of our nations on their hands; that would be an utterly irresponsible conduct. Under such circumstances, I choose to turn to history: I will try to present the path to how national security policies should be shaped under current financial conditions by examining past examples. In this thesis, I have surveyed examples that display the correlation between national finance and security policy and have observed the changes the causal relation between the two has undergone through time. I have also put forth the challenges we face today with respect to this issue and set the direction on how we should defeat them as follows: First, we must improve the system of allocating finances to support national security policies. The procedure of parliamentary approval given in the constitution has become mere formalism due to the larger influence of political settlement prior to such procedures, in which the President, the Ministry of Defense, companies, political parties, the general public, public opinion and the mass media play leading roles. But policies are seldom shaped by mutual consent of related parties and often turn out to be partial. Such a situation requires systematic reform. Second, we need to secure an adequate amount of finances for national security related expenditures. Future developments of neighboring world powers impose the expansion of defense expenditures. Non-military research institutes run by economic experts under organic interactions between civilian, governmental, academic, and military components are needed to aid the current military-centric security policy making process. Also, the Ministry of Defense should employ talented people with excellence in economy who can exploit his knowledge to make good security policy. Last, but not least, some basic considerations should be made in establishing national security policy. In the past, security policies were set up with high priority, without considering national financial conditions. Today, this is no longer true; security policy is highly dependent upon financial standings. Hence active public relations that can achieve the support and trust of the general public would be needed. The Republic of Korea has now come to be a nation that can guarantee its security at a minimum required level. But the recent decline of national credit ratings and financial conditions have introduced many variables in predicting the future of our security policy. To prepare for such uncertainties, we must maintain a healthy national financial standing and set up and promote national security policies aimed to firmly establish our independent defense position. But national finances, unlike private finances, are prepared after deciding the expenditures. That is, finances of national use can be arranged if needed. But that only shows how important it is to study and decide exactly how much is needed right this moment.

國家財政이 國民經濟에 미친 效果에 관한 硏究 : 韓國 國家統合豫算을 基盤으로

우영춘 건국대학교 대학원 2001 국내박사

The motive of this dissertation is to concern about the increase of the National Debts and the additional public finance for government to make up imprudently. Now in the political arena in Korea, it is said that the economic policy in the present Kim's Administration is a complete failure. Against it, this Administration says that the past government-oriented development policy brought about this poor economy, exerting a sword of powerful but inefficient restructuring. Though we know that the government's fiscal policy has great effects on the national economy, few people has tried an empirical and measuring study on the relation of the public finance to the national economy. This is why I started this dissertation. The objectives of this dissertation are to analyze the effects of the public budgets on the national Economy in Korea during 1948-2000 and to suggest the way the public budgets make toward. To be in detail, they're like the followings. First, how has the government contributed to the economic growth with the fiscal policy and how has it stabilized boom or depression? Second, the size of the local finance has grown consistently. And with the election of the chief of the local government in 1995, the influence of the local government has increased, too. Besides, our territory is relatively small. Under these conditions, is it right that the local governments have no effects on the national economy? Third, What effects and how much have our Unified State Budgets had on the National economy? And in case that the National debt, the burden of our people, is growing and will grow, are there no problems in the Public Budgets? However, to my disappointment, in Korea there's no Unified State Budget which puts the central government budgets and local budgets together. As of 2000, it is only a central government's budgets that is based on the IMF manual. Therefore, at first I should make up the Korean Unified State Budget including the Central government's budgets and the local government's budgets. So, I collected the materials from 1948 to 2000, accounted them by using a method of the IMF manual, and made it. It is shown in Appendix1~8. According to these Korean Unified State Budget, it has increased 15,931 times than that of 1953 in normal size; the central government budgets 10,774 times; the local government budgets 117,562 times. But the real size of the Korean Unified State Budget has increased from 26.7% to 28.2%; that of the central government budgets from 25.4% to 24.6%; the local government budget from 1.3% to 13.6%. Compared to this, GDP has increased 11,138 times for the past 48 years. As we can tell from this, the size of the local government budget has increased much more than that of the central government budget and there is a similar trend between the increase of central government budget and that of GDP. From this, I tried to see the relation of the Korean Unified State Budget to National economy by combining this Korean Unified State Budget and the past Administrations in Korea, To analyze this, the several variables were chosen. For the part of the Korean Unified State Budget, revenue or expenditure of the central government and the local government, the dependence revenue resources, and the preservation resources were chosen; for the part of the National economy, an economic growth rate, a business index, GDP, a currency(m2), an inflation rate (such as CPI, GDP Def.) were chosen. For this, I built the two following hypotheses and analyzed them. [hypothesis 1] The Korean Unified State Budget contributes the economic growth, and the increase in amount of the Unified State Budget brings about that of GDP. [hypothesis 2] The Korean Unified State Budget plays a role of the business stabilizer, and the change of the Unified State Budget results in an unemployment rate, the amount of the currency, and the inflation rate. In order to testify these hypotheses, I used Pearson Correlation analysis and Regression basically. And according to the subjects, some technics were employed. To see how much the finance has contributed to the economic growth, Solow's business accounting method was used. And to discern the effects of the discretionary fiscal policy, FI(fiscal impulse measure) was used. To know the relation of finance to GDP, the multiplier of the government expenditure was used and their efficiency of the past Administrations in Korea was compared with one another. In the end, to analyze the effects of the borrowings from the Korea Bank and the issue of the Public Debt, IS-LM curve was used. The results of these analyses showed the following findings. First, our Unified State Budget has a positive contribution to the economic growth until IMF (average degree of the financial contribution to the economic growth is 16.5%), but it may have a negative contribution in the present Kim's Administration (its degree is -4.3%). Examining the effects of the Public Budgets on the economic growth, the Unified State Budget has multiplied GDP by 1.6 times and the increase of the Unified State Budget by 1% has resulted in that of GDP by 0.3%. Also, the policies and laws related to the economic growth have a lot to do with the Budgets (A coefficient of correlation is 60.2%), which shows that the government-oriented economic growth policy has a close relation to the economic growth. It is interesting that there is a negative relation between them during the 1st Republic~the 2nd Republic and the Kim Yong-sam's Administration~the present Kim's Administration. It means that the government's economic growth policy is inefficient only to pour the government's expenditure to it during those periods. Second, when it comes to the fiscal policy, it usually conducted countercyclinically, but the role of our government as the business stabilizer is less strong than the role as the economy-growth promoter. On the discretionary fiscal policy, there were many cases that our policy against the business fluctuation is not proper. Therefore, we concluded that for our fiscal policy to be successful and efficient, forecasting ability of our government must enhanced. To look into the local financial effects as a stabilizer, we found that the local government played such a role though it is smaller than that of the central government. In this context, as a whole the local government has made up for the central government. But from the 5th republic to the Kim Yong-Sam's Administration, it hasn't been the case. This suggests that considering the size of local government and an influence of the chief in the local government has grown, the fiscal policy of the central government must connected to that of the local government if it would be successful. Third, Seeing the relation of the Unified State Budget to the economy stabilization, it has controlled an inflation rate (a coefficient of correlation on CPI is 58%), an unemployment rate (a coefficient of correlation is 69.4%). Also, the policies and laws related to the economic stabilization have a lot to do with the Budgets. For example, it has 79.3% to do with the policies for the unemployment. And Government expenditure and the Currency has been correlated closely (a coefficient of correlation is 98%), and it has resulted in prices rise. Examining the relation between the amount of the currency and government's economic policy, it has 66.9% to do with the economic growth policies, 80.5% with the unemployment policies, and 44% with the welfare policies. From this, it is inferred that the government has preferred to finance through the issue of money. However, government isn't likely to intend to get Seigniorage from the inflation tax. Besides, IS-LM curve shows that Crowding-out effects has been small and GDP has grown much more because we used policy-mix properly. Judging from the National Debts, the fiscal condition has been kept healthy until Kim Yong-sam's Administration, but it has been worsened drastically since 1998. We are in the condition that the growth rate is dulled, prices are rising, and the rate of the Public Debts for reservation resources is already over 4% of GDP. Considering this rate is expected to rise more in the coming year, we should examine how healthy our Public Budgets are. For this, Government submitted 'the law for the health of the budget' to the Congress. But it is more important to practice this law properly than enact it. Namely, rather than make the State Budgets look healthy by using the Public Finance, we must pursuit the substantial health of budget.

XML에 기반한 국가재정정보의 효율적인 교환

배종천 연세대학교 공학대학원 2004 국내석사

This dissertation presents an XML-based data exchange method by which the central government offices can increase the efficiency in using the National Finance Information System(NAFIS). Currently NAFIS consists of text-based flat files, which causes frequent maintenance problems due to its low stability. XML-based data exchange method has a couple of advantages over text-based flat files system: 1) the flexibility in exchanging NAFIS data when the layout of data transferred is changed and 2) the efficiency in system integration between different platforms. With the analysis of the problems in NAFIS, this paper creates the XML Schema and its instances for NAFIS. In addition, it measures the effects of XML-based data exchange system when it is adopted in NAFIS. It is desirable for the result of the research to be helpful to the central government offices who are considering the XML as an advanced tool for exchanging data in NAFIS. 본 논문에서는 국가재정정보시스템을 사용하고 있는 중앙관서기관들이 XML을 이용하여 양자간에 보다 효율적인 데이터교환 유지보수 작업을 할 수 있는 방안에 대해 연구하였다. 현재 국가재정정보시스템은 텍스트 기반의 플랫 파일(flat file)을 사용하고 있고 국가재정정보시스템은 아직 안정화되지 못해 지속적으로 보완작업과 이에 따른 빈번한 유지보수작업이 이루어지고 있다. 이에따라 전송 플랫 파일 레이아웃이 변경되는 경우에도 유연하게 대처할 수 있고 서로 다른 플랫폼간에도 시스템통합을 쉽게할 수 있는 XML을 국가재정정보시스템의 데이터교환 방법으로 적용할 것을 제안하였다. 현 국가재정정보시스템의 문제점을 분석하고 일부 국가재정정보연계시스템에 대한 XML 스키마와 XML 인스턴스를 생성하여 XML 적용시의 효과를 도출하였으며, 향후 지속적으로 확대?통합되고 있는 국가재정정보시스템에 XML을 적극적으로 활용하여 보다 효율적인 국가재정정보시스템 관리가 이루어지길 기대한다.

地方財政의 確保方案에 關한 硏究 : 淸州市를 中心으로

황선욱 淸州大學校 大學院 1983 국내석사

Bad financial situations of Korea's local cities are not today's problems but accumulated problems so far. Especially, demand of local administration has been enlarged with the increase of public services such as legional development and inhabitant welfare owing to the rapid economic growth which has been made since 1960s. But, the finances of small-medium cities such as "cheongju" increasingly tend to rely on the central Government because of the tendency of financial centralization and eoncentration of finance on some big cities as well as lacks of their own financial ability. The more the local finance relies upon the central finance, the more local government loses its autonomy. As the local goverment loses its autonomy, it has the difficulty in meeting the demand of local administration and loses the local characteristics. For this reason, it is difficult for small-medium cities such as cheongju city which is weak in finance to practice self autonomy, even though the constitution of the Fifth Republic had a little possibility in practicing it. Therefore, it is necessary those cities to secure their statle finance. Hence, this study aims to establish plans for securing local finance and indicates the problems for the finance of local governments of Korea, focusing cheongju city. The followings are the problems indicated in this study. First, while the rate of financial independence of big cities such as Busan and Taejeon were relatively high in 1981; 93.4% and 73.1% respectively, cheongju city's rate of it was 62.3%, which is a little over nation-wide average. This is a common phenomenon in most small-medium cities in Korea. Second, the reason why small-medium cities like cheongju have relatively low rate of financial independence is that sources of revenue with high elasticity mainly concentrated on the national taxes. And, local taxes consists of taxes which have little income elasticity like property tax. And, the fact that local sources of revenue was much too concentrated on big cities shows the unbalance in the sources of revenue between the regions. Third, because small-medium cities like cheongju are in financial difficulties, the share of general administrative expence in their annual expenditure came out to be higher than investment expence. Therefore, it is difficult for these cities to secure enough sources of tax, for they still remain as comsuming cities, with them not to be industrialized. Fourth, those cities have irrational finance supportion system. In case of cheongju city, the share of legal subsidy in overall revenue is 13.27%. Furthermore, the other smaller cities are less than that. The following plans are required to improve the above problems and to secure enough local finance. First, it is necessary to transfer a few national taxes and Value Added Taxes, which have characteristics of local taxes, into local taxes in order to avoid the poverty of local finance. Second, the rate of local tax has to be readjusted in terms of the economic growth and inflation within the limits not to increase the tax burdens of local inhabitants. And, it is necessary to give the local governments the right to adjust the tax rate in order to regulate themselves more efficently. Third, it is required to find the new potential sources of revenue. That is, it is necessary to secure stable local finance by introducing new tax systems such as regional development tax, invironment preserration tax and tobacco comsumption tax. Fourth, Current rate of local subsidy "13.27%" is not enough to meet the local inhabitants' financial demands. Therefore it is essential to raise the local subsidy rate up to 17.6%, which is the level prior to "August 3 Measurment". Particulary, small-medium cities like cheongju have relatively heavy burden of local taxes, clear-cut lines of business have to be established between national government and local government. And it is also necessary for national government to grant the national subsidy on the basis of current price, not the former year's unit price. This study has investigated problems on the finance of local governments and improving plans for the problems, but it is impossible to expect the effect of revenue guarantee without reasonal expenditure. Therefore, to save annual budget can be regarded as a device to secure local finance. And, it is possible to save expenses by transferring some projects to private enterprises and placin some public service sections under private management. It is also possible to save budget and make the efficient utilization and distribution of national resources possible by establishing post management and evaluation system. In conclusion, it is urgent to make the local autonomy system, which has not been practiced on the ground of weak financial situation of local governments, be practiced as soon as possible by securing the finance of local government. Thus, these approaches are to contribute to the development of politics, economy, public administration, and culture of local community.

韓國地方財政의 擴充方案에 관한 硏究

마창환 漢陽大學校 行政大學院 1986 국내석사

LES RELATIONS FINANCIERES ENTRE L'ETAT ET LES COLLECTIVITES LOCALES : ETUDE COMPAREE FRANCE - COREE DU SUD

윤광재 UNIVERSITE PANTHEON-ASSAS (PARIS Ⅱ) 1998 해외박사

세계의 여러 나라들처럼, 프랑스와 한국에도 지방세 제도가 있는데, 이 제도가 지방자치단체들의 재정을 충분히 만족시키지 못하고 있다. 프랑스에서는 지방세가 1789년의 혁명에 기초를 두고 있기에, 낡은 제도라고 인식되고, 한국에서는1906년과 1909년의 법에 그 근거를 두고 있으며, 과세대상이 몇 개의 세목에 한정되어 있다. 프랑스는 물론 한국에서도, 지방세 수입이 지방자치단체 전체 예산의 절반을 넘지 못하고 있다. 위와 같은 이유로 두 나라의 정부가 자치단체들에게 국가재정보조제도를 실시하고 있다. 프랑스에서는 concours financiers 시스템이 존재하고, 한국은 지방재정조정이 제도화 되어있다. Concours financiers 시스템이나 지방재정조정제도가 없다면, 프랑스와 한국의 지방자치단체들은 균형예산을 세울 수 없다. 상대적으로 조정제도의 수나 배분규칙면에서, 프랑스제도는 복잡성으로 성격을 규명할 수 있고, 한국제도는 단순성으로 그 성격을 설명할 수 있다. 프랑스와 한국에서는, 위의 두 제도의 실행에도 불구하고, 지방자치단체들간의 재정격차가 항상 존재한다. 이 격차는 몇 가지의 요인으로 설명될 수 있다. 그 중에서도, 자치단체들간의 과세대상 불균형이 제일 중요한 원인을 형성하고 있다. 직업 ·사업세 수입 격차와 국토의 세분화 때문에 프랑스 자치단체들간의 재정 불균형이 한국의 자치단체들간의 그것보다 훨씬 심각하다. 게다가, 프랑스의 지방자치단체들은 몇년전 부터 새로운 문제점들(농촌과 교외지역의 재정 궁핍화)에 직면하고 있다. 이러한 문제점들을 해결하기 위해서, 프랑스 정부는 concours financiers 시스템에 새로운 논리 즉 "연대성"의 개념을 도입하였다. 반면에, 한국정부는 자치단체들간의 재정격차를 해소하기 위해서, 지방재정조정제도의 몇몇 조항을 개정하는데 그쳤다. 이러한 두 나라의 차이점이 있음에도, 프랑스나 한국의 재정격차완화 제도는 재정적으로 어려운 지방자치단체와 지방설비물 설치에 우선권을 부여하고있다.