북한의 사회·경제구조와 현황

최수영 한국전략문제연구소 1996 전략연구 Vol.3 No.2

North Korea appears to be undergoing considerable changes. In particular, social and economic changes which are unfavorable to North Korea, are noticeable. Due to economic stagnation after the mid-1980s and economic recession in the 1990s, the economy has deteriorated. In addition, this economic crisis incurred a lot of absurdities and deviant activities in the society and economy. Judging from this situation, some reports say that North Korea stands on the brink of collapse and that the collapse is only a matter of time. The North Korean people are suffering from triple difficulties, that is, food, energy and foreign currency shortages. The deep-seated problems of the North Korean economy are the structural dilemma and inefficiency which have been accumulated since the mid-1960s. Breakup of economic relations with other socialist countries is one of the major causes of economic recession in North Korea in the 1990s. Joint venture projects and limited opening policies, such as Rajin-Sonbong Free Economic and Trade Zone, which North Korea tried to avoid the economic stagnation, failed to attain the desired result This also aggravated its economic difficulties. Even the nature gave disasters to North Korea, namely the three bad floods in the summer of 1995. Present structure of the social class in North Korea is a product of the social control policy which sustain the North Korean society. For the past twenty years, the social status of the people has generally improved on the surface. However, considering the privilege of the nucleus class, which actually rules the North Korean society, has remained unchanged. We can realize how difficult and hard it is to rise in social status in North Korea. The North has consolidated a structure which is thoroughly ruled by the nucleus class, more particularly a certain power elite. Even in such a society in North Korea, office workers and professional workers, who are called the "new middle class" or "working intellectuals," grew larger in numbers and improved in their knowledge. The North Korean authorities is worrying that these intellectuals may possibly convert into critics or unstable forces against the North Korean regime. Judging from such an anxiety, we can say that they brought more likelihood that North Korea will change. In addition, real earning differentials between nucleus class and non-nucleus one widened further apart. Even urbanization and improvement in education could possibly exert an undesirable effect on North Korea because it has been a strictly controlled society. With deteriorating economy, North Korean people cannot live on daily rations provided by the state. Under this serious situation, the people themselves cannot but seek self-help to make up with shortage of daily necessities and low-quality food. In this process, people begin to learn capitalistic means of living, as well as trends of individualism and materialism proliferated. Bribery became daily practice among all the people ranging from common citizen to senior officials. Pilferage and embezzlement are prevalent. Such deviant activities of North Koreans were not limited within domestic problems but extended to breaking away from their regime for exile abroad. Another noticeable phenomenon since the mid-1990s, which is different from the past, is the increasing number of escapees including people in high class. Escapees, who were the North Korean elites before, imply clear evidence that something is wrong with the North Korean regime. Peasants are rarely estranged from their regime because their mobility is restricted more than other classes. Worsening economic difficulties transformed the North Korean socio-economic structure into a dual structure between official and non-official spheres. In addition, non-official one grew larger. Expansion of non-official sphere hinders fulfillment of state's plan, and it subsequently reproduces on an enlarged scale laxity and instability in the North Korean regime. A typical example of non-official sphere relates with the black market and high prices in peasants' market where some trade is allowed. Sufferers from this dual structure consist of common people who are politically, economically and socially inferior. In the past, the biggest complaint of non-nucleus class was disadvantage in politics, but they are now suffering directly from the disadvantage in material side attributed to the dual structure of society and economy. It is, therefore, possible that a conflict could emerge between nucleus class, beneficiaries of the dual structure, and non-nucleus one, the victims of the same structure. Such a class conflict is considered direct factor which will weaken binding and controlling power of the socialist system. Kim Jong-il regime could, therefore, possibly be in an early stage of crisis which is very similar to that of East" European communist countries that collapsed in the late 1980s. We can not, however, conclude at present that this crisis will lead to a collapse of the entire North Korea. In spite of those adverse conditions, the party's control - with militarized measure - is intact. The military is still strong and people are accustomed to hardships. The North Korean regime is, therefore, expected to survive yet under deteriorating and unstable situations.

북한의 지하자원 수출실태 분석과 정책적 시사점

최수영 한국경제연구원 2015 한국경제연구원 정책연구 Vol.2015 No.30

본 보고서에서는 북한의 대중국 지하자원 수출이 감소하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 북한의 대중 지하자원 수출액은 2013년 18.4억 달러로 최대치를 기록했지만, 2014년에 들어 15.2억 달러로 감소했다. 북한의 대중 수출 품목 중 지하자원이 차지하는 비중도 2013년 63.2%에서 2014년 53.7%로 줄었다. 최수영 한경연 초빙연구위원은 “2013년을 기준으로 북한의 대중 수출액은 29.1억 달러였는데 그 중 지하자원 품목의 수출액은 18.4억 달러로 전체 대중 수출의 절반 이상을 차지하고 있다”며, “북한의 총수출 감소현상은 대중 자원수출액 감소가 크게 작용한 결과”라고 주장했다. 최근 2015년 3분기까지도 주력 수출품목인 광물자원의 대중 수출 감소 현상이 이어지고 있다. 보고서는 “북한이 2010년에 들어 플러스 성장을 거둘 수 있었던 것은 풍부한 지하자원과 양질의 노동력을 활용해 중국과의 무역을 확대했기 때문”이라며, “북한의 대중 지하자원 수출 감소가 지속되면 외화확보에 큰 타격을 입을 수 있다”고 주장했다. 2013년 북한의 대중 수출액은 29.1억 달러로 총 수출액 32.1억 달러의 90.5%였으며 2014년 북한의 총 수출액 대비 대중수출액 비중은 89.8%였다. 최 초빙연구위원은 특히 2010년 ‘5·24 조치’ 이후 북한이 남북교역 중단에 따른 경화 수입 감소분을 만회하기 위해 대중국 수출 확대에 집중하면서 북한이 경제운용에 필요한 외화를 확보할 수 있었다고 설명했다. 그는 또 “중국의 자원 수요 증가와 원자재 국제가격 상승이 북한의 대중 지하자원 수출 확대를 견인했는데, 최근 중국의 경제성장률이 하락하면서 자원 수요가 감소하고 환경규제가 강화되는 등 수출 환경이 개선될 여지가 낮은 것으로 보인다”고 설명했다. 보고서는 다만 북한의 총 수출에서 지하자원이 차지하고 있는 비중이 50% 이상을 넘어서고 있기 때문에 여전히 광물자원 수출은 북한의 주된 외화 획득원으로 볼 수 있다고 주장했다. 실제로 개성공단의 북한 노동자에 지급되는 임금은 연간 약 1억 달러인데 반해, 북한의 무연탄 수출액은 연간 10억 달러 이상에 달하는 것으로 나타났다. 최 초빙연구위원은 “북한의 4차 핵실험과 장거리 미사일 발사로 유엔을 통한 강도 높은 대북제재 결의안이 마련되고 있는 가운데, 국제사회의 대북경제제재는 북한의 주된 외화 획득 통로인 대중국 지하자원 수출을 차단할 때 실효성을 높일 수 있다”며, 중국의 대북제제 참여가 시급하게 필요하다고 주장했다.

특집2 : 북한 개방정책의 추진현황과 과제 ; 북한 개방정책의 변화과정과 전망 -생존을 위한 실질적 개방 준비

최수영 평화문제연구소 1997 통일한국 Vol.164 No.-

집중분석 : 북한 식량난, 농업구조 문제가 근본원인

최수영 평화문제연구소 1996 통일한국 Vol.153 No.-

미일 대북 지원정책의 효과

최수영 통일연구원 1996 統一 政策 硏究 Vol.5 No.1

GABA transaminase 의 새로운 보조인자 유사체로서의 6 - Br - pyridoxal - 5 - phosphate

최수영,위세찬,김두식 ( Soo Young Choi,Sechan Wee,Doo Sik Kim ) 생화학분자생물학회 1989 BMB Reports Vol.22 No.2

6-Br-pyridoxal-5-phosphate, a new cofactor analog of pyridoxal-5-phosphate, was synthesized and purified homogeneously by organic and enzymatic methods. This cofactor analog binds to cofactor binding site of GABA transaminase. Resolved and reduced GABA transaminase restore the catalytic activity by 6-Br-PLP. These results indicate that the 6-Br-PLP remains covalently attached to the amino acid residue of the catalytic site and acts like natural cofactor.

4 - Aminobutyrate aminotransferase 의 촉매기능과 구조적 특성

최수영,김두식 ( Soo Young Choi,Doo Sik Kim ) 생화학분자생물학회 1991 BMB Reports Vol.24 No.5

4-Aminobutyrate aminotransferase (GABA transaminase) was inactivated by either lysyl or sulfhydryl reagents. The inhibitory effect was protected by α-ketoglutarate, one of the substrate of GABA transaminase. These are powerful evidence that lysyl and cysteinyl residues are located in catalytic domain of the enzyme. The function of the second catalytic site of the enzyme was also examined. After reduction with NaBH₄followed by cofactor reconstitution, the reduced enzyme was capable of catalyzing transamination reaction of the amino substrate, such as 4-aminobutyrate, β-alanine or 5-aminovalerate. Since there is no significant difference in the catalytic parameter between the native and reduced enzymes, it seems reasonable to conclude that the additional catalytic site is functionally identical to the catalytic site of the native enzyme. Moreover, apoenzyme undergoes conformational changes upon binding of cofactor pyridoxal-5-phosphate (PLP) which indicates that apoenzyme becomes conformationally stabilized as a consequence of the cofactor binding.

제3부 분단 반세기 남북한의 경제발전 ; 남북한의 대외경제관계 비교

최수영 경남대학교 극동문제연구소 1996 분단 반세기 남북한의 정치와 경제 Vol.- No.-

북한지역 산업단지 개발의 효과

최수영 대한토목학회 2001 대한토목학회지 Vol.49 No.5

치과주조용 Ti-Zr-Cr계 합금 계발(II) - 내식성에 관한 연구-

최수영 대한치과기공학회 2003 대한치과기공학회지 Vol.25 No.1