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개념적 강우유출 모형의 유량구간별 적합성 평가 및 앙상블 모델 구축
유재웅,박문형,김진국,권현한,Yu, Jae-Ung,Park, Moon-Hyung,Kim, Jin-Guk,Kwon, Hyun-Han 한국수자원학회 2021 한국수자원학회논문집 Vol.54 No.2
An increase in the frequency and intensity of both floods and droughts has been recently observed due to an increase in climate variability. Especially, land-use change associated with industrial structure and urbanization has led to an imbalance between water supply and demand, acting as a constraint in water resource management. Accurate rainfall-runoff analysis plays a critical role in evaluating water availability in the water budget analysis. This study aimed to explore various continuous rainfall-runoff models over the Soyanggang dam watershed. Moreover, the ensemble modeling framework combining multiple models was introduced to present scenarios on streamflow considering uncertainties. In the ensemble modeling framework, rainfall-runoff models with fewer parameters are generally preferred for effective regionalization. In this study, more than 40 continuous rainfall-runoff models were applied to the Soyanggang dam watershed, and nine rainfall-runoff models were primarily selected using different goodness-of-fit measures. This study confirmed that the ensemble model showed better performance than the individual model over different flow regimes.
Vine Copula를 활용한 기후변화 시나리오 시간적 상세화 기법 개발
유재웅,권윤정,박민우,권현한 대한토목학회 2024 대한토목학회논문집 Vol.44 No.2
A Copula approach has the advantage of providing structural dependencies for representing multivariate distributions for the hydrometeorological variable marginal distribution involved, however, copulas are inflexible for extending in high dimensions, and satisfy certain assumptions to make the dependency. In addition, since the process of estimating design rainfall under the future climate associated with durations given a return period is mainly analyzed by 24-hour annual maximum rainfalls, the dependency structure contains information only on the daily and sub-daily extreme precipitation. Methods based on bivariate copula do not provide information for other duration's dependencies, which causes the intensity to be reversed. The vine copula has been proposed to process the multivariate analysis as vines consisting of trees with nodes and edges connecting pair-copula construction. In this study, we aimed to downscale under climate change to produce sub-daily extreme precipitation data considering different durations based on vine copula.