중국의 국내정치 발전과 대외정책 : 중장기 전망 Middle and Long Term Prospects

신상진 한국전략문제연구소 1997 전략연구 Vol.4 No.1

The purpose or this research is to analyze the political, economic, social and military developments in China and their implications for the evolution of Chinese foreign policy, especially policy toward the Korean peninsula. In the second chapter, the author predicts the Chinese domestic change directions from middle and long term prospects. Followings are the major findings of this study. The existing Chinese collective leadership as Jiang Zemin core and top of it will exercise sovereign power until the CCP's 15th party congress which is scheduled to held in late 1997. The dangers of an immediate political crisis development on the occasion of Deng's death are clear to everyone within the elite group. The collective leadership, however, will change gradually after Li Peng's retirement from the premiership in the 9th National People's Congress. Collective leadership structure will likely prove difficult to maintain especially over the long term. The domestic changes over the next couple of years will almost certainly not produce a significantly more dramatic and pro-Western regime: neither will they lead to the emergence of indepenent regional power centers or the complete breakdown of political rule in China. Collective leadership is likely to inhibit bold policy initiatives, and may only support incrementalism. But post-Deng leaders will recognize that their hold on power and socio-political stability will rests heavily on their ability to achieve concrete economic success and to make life materially better for the vast majority of the Chinese people. Therefore they will pursue rapid economic development policies. Performance will be seen as what counts and economic performance will be the linchpin of the continued political legitimacy of the communist leaders in China. During Jiang Zemin leadership consolidates power base, the military will increase its political influence. The common political weakness of the civilian successors will probably encounter increasing pressures to placate the armed forces on key domestic and foreign policy issues. After the new Chinese leadership surmount political transition, there is a possibility that the military intervention in policy making process will be declined gradually. Chinese leaders will use ideological and nationalistic appeals to try to establish emotive base for leadership. Chinese nationalism and patriotism will be a significant source of regime legitimacy. In the third chapter, the author predicts Chinese foreign policy direction following domestic change. China will stress to develop friendly relations with neighboring countries to sustain stable economic progress. China will pursue a friendly relationship with the two potential adversaries, U.S. and Japan as far as its national sovereignty would not be violated. Because post-Deng leadership will be recruited with highly educated and professional politicians, China will take a pragmatic and realistic policies toward foreign countries. However, considering the possibilities of China's rising power and arms buildup, military intervention in policy making process and the patriotic nationalism, there will be growing tendency of assertive and agressive foreign policies. Post-Deng leadership will put more emphasis on the peace and stability of Korean peninsula in transition period, but from the long term prospects promotion of its influence will be more important policy object than status quo of the peninsula. Therefore, China will pursue an equal distance policy toward the two Koreas for sometime to come. And China will devote its all efforts to stop a rapid reunification of the peninsula through a sudden collapse of North Korea, combined with efforts to strengthen economic, political, and diplomatic ties with South Korea, both for developmental reasons, and in anticipation of its likely absorption of the North in 21st century. At the same time, the more U.S. and Japan reinforce rapprochement policy toward the North, the more important the North's strategic value to China. In the fourth chapter, the author presents ROK's policy recommendations: strengthen personal relationship with Chinese high level leaders, devote all energies to restore security confidence, treat Korean Chinese problems with caution, and readjust the industrial structure rapidly.

국내의 중국·북한관계 연구 현황과 과제

신상진 통일연구원 2004 統一 政策 硏究 Vol.13 No.2

This paper analyzes the current situations and presents the future directions of the studies on China-North Korea relations which is one of the crucial factors for the peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula. Additionally the author elaborates the several contending views on critical issues about the relations between China-North Korea.The studies on China-North Korea relations in Korea have achieved some now, but still much place to fill up. One of the important reason why the research field still remains in a initial stage is that most of the scholars in the universities and the government affiliated institutes have difficulties to approach the informations on China-North Korea relations. Therefore, the author states that there should be more information sharing between scholars in the academic field and government officials. The author also argues that there should be more frequent interchanges and cooperative researches between China specialists and North Korea specialists.Another thing which the researchers should consider is that the relations between China and North Korea is not only affected by strategic interests of the two countries but also highly influenced by the leader's perception toward the counter countries, Sino-US relations, Sino-Korea relations, etc. Accordingly, the researchers should analyze the China- North Korea relations from domestic and international context. This study also elaborates contending views on the future directions where the relations between China-North Korea should drive to, and whether North Korea will follow China’s reform and opening-up policy or not, and how much China have influence on North Korea.

김정일,부시와 힘겨루기나서나 ; 북,중,러 북방3각관계 강화와 미국 -대미 대결보다 타협으로

신상진 평화문제연구소 2001 통일한국 Vol.213 No.-

[특집] 신정부 시기 한·중관계 전망과 과제

신상진 북한연구소 2022 北韓 Vol.- No.605

Bankart 수술 후 발생한 금속 봉합 나사못 합병증의 관절경적 치료

신상진,정재훈,김성재,유재두,Shin, Sang-Jin,Jung, Jae-Hoon,Kim, Sung-Jae,Yoo, Jae-Doo 대한관절경학회 2006 대한관절경학회지 Vol.10 No.1

목적: 금속 봉합 나사못을 이용한 견관절 습관성 전방 탈구 수술 후, 여러 원인에 의하여 발생한 금속 봉합 나사 못 돌출 합병증을 보고하고 발생 원인, 임상 양상 및 관절경적 치료에 대하여 알아보고자 하였다. 대상 및 방법: 견관절 습관성 전방 탈구로 봉합 나사못을 이용한 Bankart 수술을 시행 받은 후 운동시 들리는 관절내 마찰음 및 통증 또는 불안정성을 호소하며 내원하여 관절경 재수술을 시행받은 환자 5명을 대상으로 하였다. 처음 수술 이후 재수술까지의 평균 기간은 5.2개월이었다. 환자들은 관절경 재수술시 봉합 나사못의 돌출이 확인되었으며 관절경 술식을 이용하여 돌출 봉합 나사못을 제거하였다. 결과: 주 증상은 4명에서 통증을 동반한 관절내 마찰음이었으며 이 마찰음은 외전 및 외회전시 분명하게 들렸다. 1명은 통증과 함께 견관절 불안정성을 호소하였다. 견관절 운동 범위는 외회전만 약간 감소되었을 뿐 거의 정상 소견을 나타내었다. 돌출되었던 봉합 나사못의 위치는 5시 방향 1명, 4시 방향 2명, 2시 및 3시 방향 각각 1명씩이었다. 그 중 2명은 전방 관절와연에서 5 mm 정도 내측 관절면 위에 위치하였다. 나머지 3명은 올바른 위치에 삽입되어 있었으나 나사못 주변의 연골 마모 및 골소실이 관찰되었다. 재수술시 5명 모두 상완골두에 연골 손상이 발견되었으며 1명은 관절와에도 연골 결손이 동반되었다. 재수술 후 2년째 추시 결과 재탈구나 불안정성을 보이는 환자는 없었으며 통증에 대한 VAS 점수는 수술 전 3.4에서 수술 후 1.2로 감소되었다. Constant 점수는 수술 전 65점에서 수술 후 89점으로 증가하였으며 ASES 점수도 수술 전 67점에서 수술후 88점으로 증가하였다. 결론: 봉합 나사못 합병증으로 인한 증상은 불안정성을 동반하지 않는 경우가 많으며 대부분 재활 운동 시점부터 증상이 나타나지만 정상적인 수술 후 통증과 구분이 어려운 경우가 많다 그러나 돌출된 봉합 나사못은 상완골두 연골의 파괴를 유발하는 심각한 합병증을 초래하므로 봉합 나사못 돌출이 의심되면 관절경을 통하여 관절내의 변화를 관찰하며 돌출된 봉합 나사못을 다시 삽입하거나 제거하여야 한다. 봉합 나사못 제거에 본 수술 방법을 사용하면 용이하게 봉합 나사못 제거가 가능하리라 사료된다. Purpose: This study presents 5 patients who had metallic anchor protrusion on glenoid after Bankart repair in anterior shoulder instability and reviewed the cause, clinical feature and arthroscopic removal technique. Method and Materials: 5 male with average age of 22 years (range 19 to 25 years) were included. 4 patients had arthroscopic Bankart repair and 1 patient had open repair for anterior shoulder instability. They had protruded metallic suture anchors on glenoid and the protruded suture anchors were removed arthroscopically using larger suture anchor empty inserter. Results: 4 patients had painful clicking sound with motion of abduction and external rotation and 1 patient showed shoulder instability. The ROM showed normal except mild degrees loss of external rotation. The position of protruded metallic anchor was 2, 3 and 5 O'clock in three patients and 4 O'clock in 2 patients. In 2 patients, the metallic suture anchor was malpositioned about 5mm off on the medial side from the anterior glenoid edge. All had Outerbrige classification Grade II-III chondral damage on humeral head and 1 patient showed glenoid cartilage destruction. None had shoulder instability after 2 years of follow-up. Constant score was 65 preoperatively and 89 postoperatively. ASES score was 67 preoperatively and 88 postoperatively. Conclusion: Symptoms of protruded suture anchor are not combined with instability. Most of symptoms were revealed from the rehabilitation period and confused with postoperative pain. Prompt diagnosis and early arthroscopic removal or impaction of protruded metallic suture anchor is recommended because of serious glenohumeral cartilage destruction. This is easy and simple and reproducible method to remove protruded metallic suture anchor arthroscopically.

주관절 관절경의 해부학 및 Portals

신상진,Shin, Sang-Jin 대한관절경학회 2007 대한관절경학회지 Vol.11 No.2

중국의 미얀마 코캉사태 대응전략: 북한 급변사태에 주는 시사점

신상진 통일연구원 2011 統一 政策 硏究 Vol.20 No.1

The purposes of this paper are to analyze the Myanmar Kokang crisis and to prospect China’s response to North Korea’s contingency. When over 37,000 of Kokang refugees fled into the south-western part of Yunnan province on August 2009, China classified the crisis as level 1 emergency as the most severe and significant incidents which should be manipulated by Beijing. The Yunnan government opened the refugee camps and supplied humanitarian aid to Myanmar refugees, then the refugees were returned to Myanmar just after the condition in Kokang had been improved. China’s preparations and response to the refugee crisis in Yunnan have clear implications for how it might address contingencies on North Korea. Should North Korea collapse in dramatic fashion, a refugee crisis will be one of several challenges that China will face. Should North Korea collapse or over tens of thousands of North Korean refugees fled into China at once, it would be a direct threat to Chinese territorial integrity and core national interests. China is expected to do what it can to prevent North Korea collapse, but China might exclude military intervention should U.S. and South Korea not send troops into North Korean territory. It is certain that China would not tolerate U.S. and/or South Korean troops approaching the Chinese border and such a development might trigger Chinese military intervention. So, it is highly necessary that U.S.-China and China-South Korea should have held discreet talks on this issue and provide assurances to one another. If true, such an understanding significantly reduces the possibility of miscalculation and the prospect that a sudden crisis in North Korea could expand into a regional conflict. 이 글은 북한과 여러 가지 면에서 유사한 특징을 지니고 있는 미얀마 사례분석을 통해 북한 급변사태 시 중국의 예상대응을 분석·전망하였다. 2009년 8월 3만 7천명에 달하는 미얀마 코캉지역 주민이 국경을 넘어 중국으로 유입되었을 때, 중국정부는 위급하고 광범위한 대응을 요구하는 1급 돌발사태로 규정하고 중앙정부 차원에서 대처했다. 중국 내에 유입된 미얀마인들을 임시 피난민 수용소를 설치하여 수용한 다음 사태가 진정된 후 곧바로 미얀마로 귀환시켰다. 대량 탈북자 유입 시 중국은 북한사태가 중국에 미칠 영향을 최소화하는 방향으로 대응할 것이며, 한·미에게 북한사태 개입 명분을 주지 않고 주변국에게 중국위협 인식을 고조시키지 않기 위해 단독 군사개입은 최대한 자제할 것으로 전망되었다. 그러나 코캉사태와 마찬가지로 북한사태 시 중국의 대응은 무엇보다도 미국이 어떤 방식으로 개입할 것인지에 의해 결정될 것으로 예상된다. 중국은 북한 급변사태 시 국가안보에 대한 심각한 위기로 간주하고 국무원 차원을 넘어 당 중앙차원에서 대응할 것으로 보이며, 북한사태로 인해 중국과 한·미가 군사적 충돌을 벌이는 상황이 전개될 가능성도 있다. 따라서 미·중뿐 아니라 한·미간에도 북한사태에 대한 사전 협의를 통해 충돌 발생 가능성을 최소화해야 한다. 북한 급변사태에 대한 한·중 간 협의와 협력이 가능하도록 하기 위해서는 한국의 대북정책과 대미 동맹정책에 대한 중국의 오해와 의구심을 해소하는 노력이 선행되어야 할 것이다.

${\alpha}\;-\;{\beta}$ 추적 필터 이득 산출 연구

신상진,오선진,홍동희,박진규,Shin, Sang-Jin,Oh, Sun-Jin,Hong, Dong-Hee,Park, Jin-Kyu 한국군사과학기술학회 2007 한국군사과학기술학회지 Vol.10 No.4

This paper considers new filter gains for the ${\alpha}\;-\;{\beta}$ tracker which is optimized particularly to minimize the tracking gate size. Optimizing the performance index which is composed of tracking errors due to target maneuver and measurement noise is not different from the existing method to obtain the ${\alpha}\;-\;{\beta}$ gains. However, holding the probability 0.997 that a target exists in the tracking gate and minimizing the gate size produce the new result not similar to the existing ${\alpha}\;-\;{\beta}$ gains.

양제츠 중국 외교부장 방북과 중 · 북관계 - 중 · 북 외교부간 대화와 협의를 통한 선린우호관계 지속

신상진 북한연구소 2007 北韓 Vol.- No.428

Basic shoulder arthroscopy & knot tying technique

신상진 대한견주관절의학회 2013 대한견주관절학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2013 No.11