농식품 산업의 기술평가 영향요인 분석과 시뮬레이션 기반 기술평가 비교

김상국,전승표,박현우,Kim, Sang-gook,Jun, Seung-pyo,Park, Hyun-woo 기술경영경제학회 2016 Journal of Technology Innovation Vol.24 No.4

2011년 이후 농식품 산업에서 연구개발 기술 자산들에 대한 평가를 수행할 때 주도적으로 활용되고 있는 방법이 현금흐름할인(DCF) 방법이었으며, 최근에 종자기술 등과 같은 기술자산의 경우에는 기술료 사례 정보를 기반으로 하는 기술평가를 병행하여 수행해 오고 있다. 지금까지 알려진 현금흐름할인 방법은 추정되어야 할 입력변수가 많아 기술평가 시에 정교한 추정이 요구되고 있다. 또한 기술료 사례 정보를 근거로 하는 거래사례비교 방법이나 업종별 산업표준(industry norm)을 적용할 때에도 평가대상 기술자산과 보다 근사한 거래사례가 적용되어야 하는 것은 농식품 산업분야에서도 동일하게 고려되어야 하는 문제이다. 농식품 산업에서 기술평가 시 활용되고 있는 주요입력변수는 경제적 수명주기, 농식품업종 관련 재무적 정보, 할인율, 기술기여율 등이며, 해당 평가기관에서는 기반 정보구축과 자료 최신화를 주기적으로 수행해오고 있다. 본 연구에서는 농식품 산업에서의 기존의 기술평가 시 평가결과에 가장 중요한 영향 미치는 주요변수를 탐색하고, 기술평가 입력 정보의 최신화를 통해 도출된 참조 지원정보를 활용하여 기존의 대표 평가사례들의 평가결과가 어떤 변화가 발생하였는지를 분석하였다. 또한 입력자료 최신화가 기술평가 결과에 미치는 단편적 정보제공을 보완하기 위한 방안을 제시하면서 기존평가 결과와 자료 현행화 이후의 기술평가 결과를 비교 분석하였다. 이러한 분석을 수행하기 위해서 과거 농식품 산업에서 수행되었던 기술평가 사례를 선별하고 이를 바탕으로 입력변수들에 대한 민감도 분석 방법과 주요 핵심변수를 활용한 시뮬레이션 분석방법을 적용하였다. 본 연구결과는 농식품 분야에서 기술평가 시에 활용되고 있는 입력변수들에 대한 자료 최신화 필요성과 핵심입력변수 기반 구축에 대한 중요한 정책적 시사점, 그리고 기술가치평가 결과에 대한 보다 유용한 정보를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. Since 2011, DCF(Discounted Cash Flow) method has been used initiatively for valuating R&D technology assets in the agricultural food industry and recently technology valuation based on royalties comparison among technology transfer transactions has been also carried out in parallel when evaluating the technology assets such as new seed development technologies. Since the DCF method which has been known until now has many input variables to be estimated, sophisticated estimation has been demanded at the time of technology valuation. In addition, considering more similar trading cases when applying sales transaction comparison or industry norm method based on information of technology transfer royalty, it is an important issue that should be taken into account in the same way in the Agri-Food industry. The main input variables used for technology valuation in the Agri-Food industry are life cycle of technology asset, the financial information related to the Agri-Food industry, discount rate, and technology contribution rate. The latest infrastructure building and data updating related to technology valuation has been carried out on a regular basis in the evaluation organization of the Agri-Food segment. This study verifies the key variables that give the most important impact on the results for the existing technology valuation in the Agri-Food industry and clarifies the difference between the existing valuation result and the outcome by referring the support information that is derived through the latest input information applied in DCF method. In addition, while presenting the scheme to complement fragment information which the latest input data just influence result of technology valuation, we tried to perform comparative analysis between the existing valuation results and the evaluated outcome after the latest of reference data for making a decision the input values to be estimated in DCF. To perform these analyzes, it was first selected the representative cases evaluated past in the Agri-Food industry, applied a sensitivity analysis for input variables based on these selected cases, and then executed a simulation analysis utilizing the key input variables derived from sensitivity analysis. The results of this study is to provide the information which there are the need for modernization of the data related to the input variables that are utilized during valuating technology assets in the Agri-Food sector and for building the infrastructure of the key input variables in DCF. Therefore it is expected to provide more fruitful information about the results of valuation.

피인용특허수명(CLT)기반의 기술의 경제적 수명기간 산출 개선방법에 관한 연구

김상국 ( Sang Gook Kim ),박현우 ( Hyun Woo Park ) 기술경영경제학회 2012 Journal of Technology Innovation Vol.20 No.2

본 연구에서는 기술의 수명주기에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대해 분석하고, 기존 표준모델에서 활용되고 있는 평가지표를 근거로 개별기술의 수명에 영향을 미칠 평가지표를 분석해 이를 정량화하여, 피인용특허수명(CLT)을 기반으로 개별기술의 속성이 반영된 기술 수명주기를 산출하는 개선방법을 제안하였다. 본 연구에서 제안한 방법론은 기존 표준모델의 기술수명주기 산출방법인 한계점을 개선할 수 있는 방법으로 평가대상기술 관계자들에게 도출결과에 대한 설득의 용이성과 기존에 비해 보다 합리적인 기준을 제시함으로서 기술수명주기 도출결과의 타당성 및 활용성을 배가시킬 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. In this study we analyzed factors affecting the life cycle of technology, quantified the evaluation criteria that will affect the life of the individual technologies, and finally proposed the improvements to calculate technology life cycle that the properties of individual technologies are reflected based on cited-patent life time (CLT). It is expected that the methodology proposed improves the limits of the existing standard model, presents more reasonable criteria and ease of persuasion on the results derived by appraisers, and finally gives a lot of the feasibility and the usability of technology life cycle derived by the improved method to appraisers.

데이터마이닝을 활용한 기업 R&D역량 특성에 관한 탐색 연구

김상국(Sang-Gook Kim),임정선(Jung-Sun Lim),박완(Wan Park) 한국지능정보시스템학회 2021 지능정보연구 Vol.27 No.1

As the global business environment changes, uncertainties in technology development and market needs increase, and competition among companies intensifies, interests and demands for R&D activities of individual companies are increasing. In order to cope with these environmental changes, R&D companies are strengthening R&D investment as one of the means to enhance the qualitative competitiveness of R&D while paying more attention to facility investment. As a result, facilities or R&D investment elements are inevitably a burden for R&D companies to bear future uncertainties. It is true that the management strategy of increasing investment in R&D as a means of enhancing R&D capability is highly uncertain in terms of corporate performance. In this study, the structural factors that influence the R&D capabilities of companies are explored in terms of technology management capabilities, R&D capabilities, and corporate classification attributes by utilizing data mining techniques, and the characteristics these individual factors present according to the level of R&D capabilities are analyzed. This study also showed cluster analysis and experimental results based on evidence data for all domestic R&D companies, and is expected to provide important implications for corporate management strategies to enhance R&D capabilities of individual companies. For each of the three viewpoints, detailed evaluation indexes were composed of 7, 2, and 4, respectively, to quantitatively measure individual levels in the corresponding area. In the case of technology management capability and R&D capability, the sub-item evaluation indexes that are being used by current domestic technology evaluation agencies were referenced, and the final detailed evaluation index was newly constructed in consideration of whether data could be obtained quantitatively. In the case of corporate classification attributes, the most basic corporate classification profile information is considered. In particular, in order to grasp the homogeneity of the R&D competency level, a comprehensive score for each company was given using detailed evaluation indicators of technology management capability and R&D capability, and the competency level was classified into five grades and compared with the cluster analysis results. In order to give the meaning according to the comparative evaluation between the analyzed cluster and the competency level grade, the clusters with high and low trends in R&D competency level were searched for each cluster. Afterwards, characteristics according to detailed evaluation indicators were analyzed in the cluster. Through this method of conducting research, two groups with high R&D competency and one with low level of R&D competency were analyzed, and the remaining two clusters were similar with almost high incidence. As a result, in this study, individual characteristics according to detailed evaluation indexes were analyzed for two clusters with high competency level and one cluster with low competency level. The implications of the results of this study are that the faster the replacement cycle of professional managers who can effectively respond to changes in technology and market demand, the more likely they will contribute to enhancing R&D capabilities. In the case of a private company, it is necessary to increase the intensity of input of R&D capabilities by enhancing the sense of belonging of R&D personnel to the company through conversion to a corporate company, and to provide the accuracy of responsibility and authority through the organization of the team unit. Since the number of technical commercialization achievements and technology certifications are occurring both in the case of contributing to capacity improvement and in case of not, it was confirmed that there is a limit in reviewing it as an important factor for enhancing R&D capacity from the p

사출성형 제품의 지식형 설계시스템 연구

김상국(Sang Gook Kim) 제어로봇시스템학회 1986 제어로봇시스템학회 국내학술대회 논문집 Vol.1 No.10

기술혁신 시장채택과 기술혁신 확산속도에 관한 실증사례 연구 : 화장품 산업을 중심으로

김상국(Sang-Gook Kim),임정선(Jung-Sun Lim),권태훈(Tae Hoon Kwon) 동국대학교 경영연구원 2020 경영과 사례연구 Vol.42 No.1

새로운 기술을 기반으로 하는 제품이 출시될 때, 해당 제품이 시장에서 어떤 형태로 확산될지, 시장이 성숙되고 소멸될 때까지의 시간은 얼마나 걸릴지에 대한 분석은 마케팅 담당자들에게는 중요한 문제이다. 제품을 소비하는 주체는 일반 시장에 존재하는 소비자들이지만, 기술을 소비하는 주체는 주로 기업들이다. 또한 기업은 기술을 소비하면서도 생산하는 주체이기도 하며, 기술을 제공하는 주체는 주로 학계와 연구계에 종사하는 연구자들이다. 기술혁신 시장은 일반 제품시장과는 다르게 생산주체와 소비주체가 혼재되어 있는 경우가 많으며, 이것이 의미하는 것은 기술혁신 생산자가 소비자가 될 수 있으며, 또한 소비자가 생산자가 될 수 있다는 것을 의미한다. 따라서 기술혁신 시장채택은 소비주체와 생산주체를 모두 포괄하고 있는 것을 말한다. 본 연구에서는 혁신을 수용하는 여러 다른 채택그룹들에 의해서 새로운 혁신들이 시장에서 채택되는 과정에 관한 보편적인 연구결과를 바탕으로, 기술혁신들이 채택그룹별로 수용되는 시장채택 방법을 제안하며, 서로 다른 기술혁신 채택그룹별 혁신의 확산속도 계수를 분석하고자 한다. 이러한 실증분석을 수행하기 위하여 기술혁신의 대상을 특허로 설정하였고, 특히 화장품 산업 관련 미국 특허를 활용하여 화장품 산업에서의 기술혁신 시장채택 추세와 확산속도를 실증하고자 하였다. 향후 기술혁신 시장채택 패턴과 확산속도 예측에 활용될 가능성이 높아, 기술혁신에 따른 산업의 파급효과분석에 중요한 근거로 활용될 것으로 기대된다. When products based on new technologies are released, the analysis of how the product will spread in the market and how long it will take for the market to mature and dissipate is an important issue for marketers. The consumers of products are consumers in the general market, but the consumers of the technologies are mainly companies. In addition, In addition, companies are subjects to consumption while producing technologies, and those who provide technologies are mainly researchers in academia and research. Unlike general product markets, technology innovation markets often contains a mixture of producers and consumers, which means that producers of technology innovation can be consumers and consumers can be producers. Based on the results of a universal study on the process in which new innovations are adopted in the market by different adoption groups that embrace innovation, this study proposes a market-adoption model in which technical innovations are accommodated in each adoption group, and tries to analyse the diffusion rate of innovation in different adoption groups of innovation. In order to carry out this empirical analysis, the subject of technological innovation was set as a patent, and the market adoption trend and spread speed of technology innovation in the cosmetics industry was to be demonstrated, especially by utilizing the U.S. patents related to the cosmetics industry. It is highly likely to be used to forecasting the adoption pattern and diffusion speed of technology innovation market in the future, and is expected to be used as an important basis for analyzing the spreading effects of the industry.

발돌의 형상 및 배치 방법의 변화에 따른 모형 가두리 그물의 변형 및 유수저항 특성

김상국 ( Sang Gook Kim ),양경욱 ( Kyung Wook Yang ),김대안 ( Dae Ahn Kim ),김태호 ( Tae Hoo Kim ) 한국어업기술학회 2007 수산해양기술연구 Vol.43 No.3

웹기반 지능형 기술가치평가 시스템에 관한 연구

성태응(Tae-Eung Sung),전승표(Seung-Pyo Jun),김상국(Sang-Gook Kim),박현우(Hyun-Woo Park) 한국지능정보시스템학회 2017 지능정보연구 Vol.23 No.1

Although there have been cases of evaluating the value of specific companies or projects which have centralized on developed countries in North America and Europe from the early 2000s, the system and methodology for estimating the economic value of individual technologies or patents has been activated on and on. Of course, there exist several online systems that qualitatively evaluate the technology’s grade or the patent rating of the technology to be evaluated, as in ‘KTRS’ of the KIBO and ‘SMART 3.1’ of the Korea Invention Promotion Association. However, a web-based technology valuation system, referred to as ‘STAR-Value system’ that calculates the quantitative values of the subject technology for various purposes such as business feasibility analysis, investment attraction, tax/litigation, etc., has been officially opened and recently spreading. In this study, we introduce the type of methodology and evaluation model, reference information supporting these theories, and how database associated are utilized, focusing various modules and frameworks embedded in STAR-Value system. In particular, there are six valuation methods, including the discounted cash flow method (DCF), which is a representative one based on the income approach that anticipates future economic income to be valued at present, and the relief-from-royalty method, which calculates the present value of royalties where we consider the contribution of the subject technology towards the business value created as the royalty rate. We look at how models and related support information (technology life, corporate (business) financial information, discount rate, industrial technology factors, etc.) can be used and linked in a intelligent manner. Based on the classification of information such as International Patent Classification (IPC) or Korea Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) for technology to be evaluated, the STAR-Value system automatically returns meta data such as technology cycle time (TCT), sales growth rate and profitability data of similar company or industry sector, weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indices of industrial technology factors, etc., and apply adjustment factors to them, so that the result of technology value calculation has high reliability and objectivity. Furthermore, if the information on the potential market size of the target technology and the market share of the commercialization subject refers to data-driven information, or if the estimated value range of similar technologies by industry sector is provided from the evaluation cases which are already completed and accumulated in database, the STAR-Value is anticipated that it will enable to present highly accurate value range in real time by intelligently linking various support modules. Including the explanation of the various valuation models and relevant primary variables as presented in this paper, the STAR-Value system intends to utilize more systematically and in a data-driven way by supporting the optimal model selection guideline module, intelligent technology value range reasoning module, and similar company selection based market share prediction module, etc. In addition, the research on the development and intelligence of the web-based STAR-Value system is significant in that it widely spread the web-based system that can be used in the validation and application to practices of the theoretical feasibility of the technology valuation field, and it is expected that it could be utilized in various fields of technology commercialization.

미래 사이버전 및 대비방안

김승권(Seung-Gweon Kim),김상국(Sang-Gook Kim),최종화(Jong-Hwa Choi) 한국정보과학회 2008 정보과학회지 Vol.26 No.1

일반적인 NC 공작기계의 CNC 화에 관한 연구

하성도(Sungdo Ha),이종원(Chong Won Lee),김상국(Sang Gook kim) 제어로봇시스템학회 1987 제어로봇시스템학회 국내학술대회 논문집 Vol.1 No.1

Microcomputer 용 유한요소 해석 시스템의 개발

심정수(Jung Soo Sim),김창헌(Chang Heon kim),김상국(Sang Gook kim),이종원(Chong Won Lee) 제어로봇시스템학회 1987 제어로봇시스템학회 국내학술대회 논문집 Vol.1 No.1