한미FTA와 개성공단 생산품의 법적 문제

구해우 고려대학교 일민국제관계연구원 2008 국제관계연구 Vol.13 No.2

South Korean government has promoted the project of economic cooperation between South and North Korea through the development of “Kaesung Industrial Complex.” Its main purpose is to resolve the economic hardship of North Korea and to aim at the integrated economic development of the whole Korean Peninsula. The core issues of the Complex is that products from the Complex can be recognized as “Made in South Korea” although North Korea is not currently admitted to the WTO and it is economically sanctioned by the United States. If goods from Kaesung could not be recognzied as the product of South Korea but of North Korea, they would mostly be disadvantaged by the higher import tax to third countries. It could, in turn, result in bad effects on the economic cooperation between the two Koreas. South Korean government has been taking various measures during the negotiation process of FTA with a number of countries in the world to resolve the problem. Especially, during the FTA negotiation between South Korea and United States, they reached the agreement in which the Kaesung Complex could be recognized as “Outward Processing Zone (OPZ)” by “the Committee of Outward Processing in the Korean Peninsula.” However, it needs to satisfy a certain number of requirements—firstly, progress in the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, secondly, influences of the OPZ on the relationship between South and North Korea, thirdly, general environmental, labor criteria and practices within the OPZ. Also, they should address the issues of Wassenaar Arrangement and EAR of the US Department of Commerce to solve the problem of exporting of strategic products to the Complex. In other words, the close collaboration and consultation with US is the most important factor to have productions from the “Kaesung Industrial Complex” finally permitted as that of ROK, while the recognition of the Complex as the OPZ is the minimum requirement for it. Now to conclude, close collaboration and consultation between South Korea and the United States is the most important element to reinvigorate the “Kaesung Industrial Complex.” For instance, the Kaesung Industrial Complex should be acknowledged as the OPZ in the written agreement of FTA between the South Korean and the US. The collaboration and consultation, in addition, is very significant to settle the North Korean economic hardship and promote the harmonious development of the whole Korean Peninsula. Consequently, having North Korea denuclearized and pursue the reform and liberalization through the cooperation between South Korea and the US government would be an essential task to solve the problems regarding “Kaesung industrial complex” and revitalize the economic cooperation between South and North Korea. South Korean government has promoted the project of economic cooperation between South and North Korea through the development of “Kaesung Industrial Complex.” Its main purpose is to resolve the economic hardship of North Korea and to aim at the integrated economic development of the whole Korean Peninsula. The core issues of the Complex is that products from the Complex can be recognized as “Made in South Korea” although North Korea is not currently admitted to the WTO and it is economically sanctioned by the United States. If goods from Kaesung could not be recognzied as the product of South Korea but of North Korea, they would mostly be disadvantaged by the higher import tax to third countries. It could, in turn, result in bad effects on the economic cooperation between the two Koreas. South Korean government has been taking various measures during the negotiation process of FTA with a number of countries in the world to resolve the problem. Especially, during the FTA negotiation between South Korea and United States, they reached the agreement in which the Kaesung Complex could be recognized as “Outward Processing Zone (OPZ)” by “the Committee of Outward Processing in the Korean Peninsula.” However, it needs to satisfy a certain number of requirements—firstly, progress in the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, secondly, influences of the OPZ on the relationship between South and North Korea, thirdly, general environmental, labor criteria and practices within the OPZ. Also, they should address the issues of Wassenaar Arrangement and EAR of the US Department of Commerce to solve the problem of exporting of strategic products to the Complex. In other words, the close collaboration and consultation with US is the most important factor to have productions from the “Kaesung Industrial Complex” finally permitted as that of ROK, while the recognition of the Complex as the OPZ is the minimum requirement for it. Now to conclude, close collaboration and consultation between South Korea and the United States is the most important element to reinvigorate the “Kaesung Industrial Complex.” For instance, the Kaesung Industrial Complex should be acknowledged as the OPZ in the written agreement of FTA between the South Korean and the US. The collaboration and consultation, in addition, is very significant to settle the North Korean economic hardship and promote the harmonious development of the whole Korean Peninsula. Consequently, having North Korea denuclearized and pursue the reform and liberalization through the cooperation between South Korea and the US government would be an essential task to solve the problems regarding “Kaesung industrial complex” and revitalize the economic cooperation between South and North Korea.

민주화이후 한국정부의 대북정책 성향 및 전략 비교

허태회(Huh, Tae-Hoi),윤황(Youn Hwang) 동아시아국제정치학회 2010 국제정치연구 Vol.13 No.2

The objective of the study is to analyze major factors having influenced the South Korean government’s policies towards North Korea since the start of the Kim Dai-jung government and find out some effective measures to ensure the institutionalization of the inter-Korean relations. The following are the findings of the analysis. Firstly, what has been the most critical influence on the advancement or change in terms of the relationship between the South and the North are external factors resulting from the changing relationship among great powers. It may also be viewed that their multilateral efforts like the six party talks have played an important role as a critical variable in such transitional relations between the two governments. Secondly, in terms of conflicting relations within the South Korean society, while such conflicts have rather fomented disunity, such conflicts have served as an internal factor in weakening the driving force of South Korea’s policies on the North. Thirdly, one of the most critical factors regarding this issue is the North Korean nuclear problem, which has remained a serious obstacle to institutionalizing the relationship between two Koreas. In particular, North Korea’s nuclear issues cannot be resolved by the South Korean government on its own, which puts the South Korean government to be stuck in the middle. Such difficulty has turned out to serve as a hindrance to the development of the relationship between South Korea and the U.S. Fourthly, given the characteristics of South Korea’s policies on North Korea and the power dynamics among great powers, much need for the South Korean government are the development of new negotiation framework so as to ensure its external policy autonomy and a common policy coordination apparatus enabling it to drive its policies on North Korea. South Korea’s future policies on North Korea must consider such various factors like international, geopolitical and ideological ones, in order to ensure the driving force of such policies. Based on this analysis of changes in the environment of its entire North Korean policies, South Korea’s policies on North Korea should be decided more meticulously and strategically by considering the geopolitical conditions of the Korean peninsula, the power dynamics among great powers and the internal conditions of the two Korean societies.

베트남 학계의 남,북한 연구 동향 및 쟁점: -베트남 전쟁 시기(1954~1975년)를 중심으로

도미엔 ( Mien T. Do ) 이화사학연구소 2015 梨花史學硏究 Vol.0 No.50

Following the end of the World War II, both Vietnam and Korean peninsula ware divided. Since the 1950s, South Korea (the Republic of Korea) and SouthVietnam (the Republic of Vietnam), North Korea (the Democratic People`s Republic of Korea) and North Vietnam (the Democratic Republic of Vietnam) started to establish official diplomatic relations. The Park Chung-Hee government from 1964 sent South Korean combating troops to Vietnam War battle fields and North Korea from this moment also started its assistance for Vietnam officially. This study examines and analyzes research trends in Vietnam so far on North and South Korea during the Vietnam War, which covers: ① South Korean participation in this war; ② North Korean assistance; and ? North-South Korean relationship. Firstly, the studies in Vietnam have formed discussion issues regarding the motivation of war participation, the fighting role on the battles and the results of sending South Korean troops to Vietnam. The views of Vietnamese academia are divided into "subjective" and "objective" motivations, that is to say South Korean government`s decision to dispatch troops to Vietnam was for national interest or followed the request by the US. The latter point of view is in fact in more accordance with the official standpoint of current Vietnamese government. It at last argues that the US was the one that took greater responsibility in sending South Korean combating troops to Vietnam. In reality, this point of view reflects the characteristics of the Vietnam War, at the same time reflects the current standpoint of Vietnam that the Vietnam War was indeed the "resistance war against the Americans." On the fighting role and the importance of South Korean troops, changes of perception are happening now among Vietnamese scholars. There exists research trend that recognize the importance of South Korean troops in the battle fields based on their special fighting and operating capacity. Yet while mentioning the combating process of South Korean troops, these researches could not overlook the main leading-commanding role of the US. Studies of the results of sending troops mainly focuses on analyzing the interests that South Korean government received by participating in the war, surrounding military-economic, South Korea-South Vietnamese relations, US-South Korean relations, and politico-social aspects. Most of the studies mention the negative consequences of South Korean participation in the Vietnam War, such as strained North-South Korean relations, the anti-war movement within Korean society and all over the world which South Korean government had to face. Among the consequences that mentioned, the worst can be said the civilian massacres done by South Korean army during the Vietnam War. This has been seen leaving painful marks for Vietnam and the darkest chapters in the history of Vietnam-Korean relations. Secondly, this study analyzes the issue of assistance from North Korea during the Vietnam War, starting from the moment of formation of the solidarity community spirit between North Korea and North Vietnam. Through the books published since the 1950s, we are able to see North Vietnam`s interest in the Korean War which left lessons and experiences for Vietnam, at the same time the characteristic of North Korea-North Vietnam relationship at the moment ? the Anti-American solidarity community spirit and Socialist solidarity community spirit. It was during the period of formation of the solidarity community spirit that North Korea paid attention to the Vietnam War and started to assist North Vietnam since the mid-1960s. In Vietnam in 2000 appeared researches on the assistance of North Korea and the dispatch of its air-force to North Vietnam. It can be argued that the announcement of North Korean assistance by Vietnamese government was thanks to the improvement of North Korea-North Vietnam relationship at the moment (follows Vietnam War`s end, the relationship between the two countries was worsen). In general, researches on the assistance by North Korea to Vietnam so far remain limited. Thus, the clarification of North Korea-China-North Vietnam relations with macro-level approach, as well as digging up material sources from the Vietnam side with micro-scope approach, is truly needed. Last but not least, to be brief, the research results in Vietnam on the North-South Korean relations during the Vietnam War affirm that the opposition and complexity of North-South Korean relations was stemmed from both inside and outside factors, especially the dependence on great powers. Among the outside factors that influenced the division of the Korean peninsula, current Vietnamese point of view sees the role of the US as crucial. In fact, with the perspective that the origin of the Vietnam War was due to US containment strategy in Asia, the division of Korean peninsula was seen in the same standpoint by Vietnamese scholars. Moreover, Vietnam - whose unification was achieved after a long resistance war - is insisting that the issue of division and unification of North-South Korea could only be achieved in a peaceful way.

일본 외교에 있어서 한국의 위상

신각수(SHIN Gak soo)(申珏秀) 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회) 2016 신아세아 Vol.23 No.1

한일관계는 최근 최장·최악의 위기를 겪었다. 위기 요인은 과거사를 넘어 지정학, 영토, 국민감정 등 4개 분야로 확산되었다. 이런 가운데 일본 외무성은 2015년 3월 홈페이지의 한국 관련 기술에서 기본적 가치를 공유한다는 표현을 삭제하였다. 이는 일본외교에서 한국의 위상 변화를 의미하는지에 관한 의문을 제기하게끔 하였다. 본고는 외교청서를 중심으로 한국 관련 기술을 분석함으로써 일본외교에 있어서 한국의 위상에 관해 살펴본다. 편의상 분석대상 기간인 약 60년을 i) 국교 단절기(1955년-1965년), ii) 정부 주도기(1965년-1988년), iii) 민간교류 발아기(1988년-1998년), iv) 민간교류 전성기(1999년-2011년), v) 복합위기(2012년-현재) 등 5개 시기별로 검토해 보았다. 전체적으로 5-6차례의 위기를 겪었지만 한국에 대한 인식은 안보적 중요성, 경협상대, 같은 미국 동맹국으로서의 의미, 문화영역으로의 협력확대, 공동가치 보유국 등으로 발전하여왔다. 다만 5기에 들어서는 한국 사법기관에 대한 불신, 한국의 중국 경사 인식, 혐한론의 확산 등으로 후퇴하였다. 일본의 대한 인식 결정요인은 내재적으로는 한일관계의 추이, 한일 양국의 국내변수, 일본의 한반도에 대한 이익, 그리고 외재적으로는 동북아 전략 환경의 변화가 있다. 종래 한일관계의 악화는 별다른 영향을 미치지 않았지만 최근 악화는 영향을 미쳤는데 구조적인지 여부는 향후 변화를 살펴보아야 한다. 양국의 국내변수로는 한국에서는 민주화, 반일감정, 대중인기주의 등이 영향을 미쳤고, 일본에서는 보수우경화로 인한 역사수정주의, 혐한론의 기승, 한국 경시 등이 부정적으로 작용하였다. 일본의 한반도 이익은 일본이 한국에 대한 경제적·안보적·외교적 이익이 거의 상수로 작용하며, 북한과의 관계정상화, 납치문제 해결 등도 영향을 미친다. 동북아 전략 환경의 변화는 중국의 부상으로 인한 세력전환이 크게 영향을 미치고 있다. 한일관계의 안정은 세력전환기의 동북아 평화안정뿐만 아니라 북한핵문제를 포함한 북한 문제의 해결 및 통일에 매우 중요하다. 이런 차원에서 우리는 일본 내 한국의 위상을 높이기 위해 할 수 있는 다양한 노력을 지속해야 한다. For the last three and half years, Seoul-Tokyo relations have undergone the longest and worst crisis since the establishment of diplomatic ties in 1965. The fault line has crept into geopolitics, territorial disputes and national sentiment beyond history, the traditional cause of friction. In March 2015, Japan’s Foreign Ministry deleted from the description of South Korea on its home page the statement that the two countries share basic values. This raised the issue of whether there has been a change in South Korea’s profile in Japanese foreign policy. This article examines South Korea’s profile in Japanese foreign policy by analyzing the descriptions of South Korea in the diplomatic bluebook issued by Japan’s Foreign Ministry. The 60 years under analysis were divided into five periods: i) no diplomatic ties (1955-1965); ii) government-led cooperation (1965-1988); iii) embryonic stage of people-to-people exchanges (1988-1998); iv) fully developed exchanges and cooperation (1999-2011); and v) complex crisis (2012-present). On balance, the Japanese perception of South Korea has steadily advanced, reflecting the latter’s value as a bulwark against the security threat from the continent, an important economic partner, a US ally, and a democratic and capitalist partner despite five or six crises. However, that perception backtracked during the fifth period due to multiple reasons, such as mistrust of South Korea’s judicial system, misunderstanding Korea’s tilt toward China and the spread of anti-Korean sentiment. Three internal factors determine Japanese perceptions of South Korea: changes in South Korea-Japan relations; domestic elements in both countries; and Japan’s national interests on the Korean Peninsula. An external factor is the power shift in Northeast Asia triggered by the rise of China. In the past, worsening bilateral ties did not affect Japanese perceptions of South Korea. This no longer seems to be the case, although it remains to be seen whether this change is structural. Regarding domestic elements, democratization, anti-Japanese sentiment, populism in South Korea as well as historical revisionism, anti-Korean fervor, and Korea passing in Japan influenced Japanese perceptions of South Korea. Japan’s national interests regarding South Korea in terms of its security, economy and diplomacy have been constants, although it also considered its unfulfilled interests in North Korea. Stable Seoul-Tokyo relations are essential not only for the maintenance of peace and stability in Northeast Asia amid a power shift but resolution of the North Korea problem as well, including the North Korean nuclear issue and Korean reunification. In this regard, South Koreans should make diverse efforts to enhance Korea’s profile in Japanese foreign policy.

남한의 민주화에 대한 북한의 대남인식과 전략 -김영삼, 김대중 정부를 중심으로-

박수유 ( Park Soo Yoo ) 평화문제연구소 2023 統一問題硏究 Vol.35 No.1

남조선혁명을 위한 북한의 대남전략은 해방 직후 민주기지론으로 제시됐다. 남한이 미국에 대한 식민지 예속상태에서 정통성 없는 독재정권에 놓여있다는 대남인식에 기초한다. 하지만 1990년대에 남한에서 민주화 세력이 집권에 성공하자 북한의 대남인식과 대남전략도 변하기 시작했다. 권위주의 통치 종식에 이은 야권으로 평화적 정권교체를 통해 북한의 민주화 세력에 대한 기대감이 축적된 결과, 남조선혁명론은 선거혁명 등 합법적인 정치공간을 포함한 방식의 ‘자주민주정부론’으로 나아갔다. 중간세력과 진보정권을 동맹으로 삼고 당국 간 접촉도 허용하기 시작했다. 미국과 남한 정부를 규탄대상으로 삼아왔던 북한이 진보정권과 대화에 나서며 반미공조를 함께할 대상으로 인정한 것이다. 북한의 입장에서는 민주화된 남한 시민사회에 정치적 공세가 먹힐 여지가 줄어든 데다. 외교적, 경제적 우위를 점한 남한 정권을 협상 상대로 인정하지 않을 수 없었다. 그 결과 대남전략도 남한정부와의 공조를 강조하는 ‘민족공조론’으로 확장되었다. 이 연구는 북한의 대남인식과 전략이 1990년대부터 변화하기 시작한 데 ‘남한의 민주화’라는 요인이 중요한 영향을 미쳤음을 규명했다. North Korea's strategy for the South Korean Revolution was proposed as the democratic base theory immediately after liberation. It is based on the perception that South Korea is in a dictatorship without legitimacy in its colonial subjugation to the United States. However, as a result of the peaceful regime change to the opposition parties following the end of authoritarian rule in the 1990s, South Korean Revolution policy moved to the theory of independent democratic government in a way that includes legitimate political space such as the election. North Korea recognized the South Korea’s liberal regime as a partner for anti-U.S. cooperation. There was less room for North Korea's political propaganda to work in the democratized South Korean civil society and the South Korean regime, which had a diplomatic and economic advantage, had to be recognized as a negotiating partner. As a result, the strategy against South Korea was expanded to the 'national cooperation theory' that emphasizes cooperation with the South Korean government. The study analyzed primary data such as North Korea's media, top leaders' books, and major publications to find out that the factor of democratization of South Korea had an important influence on North Korea's change in the 1990s.

Comparative Analysis of North and South Korean Medical Care Systems

최용민,이희완 사단법인 한국평화연구학회 2009 평화학연구 Vol.10 No.2

North Korea has sharply confronted South Korea with totally different politics and ideologies for the last half century. Since the death of Kim Il Sung, the serious economic recession in North Korea has caused food shortage and poor conditions of people's health and quality of life. This study was conducted to provide basic data for developmental and future-oriented model for integration of North and South Korean medical care system through comparatively analyzing the two Korean systems. It goes without saying that contrastive medical care system is developed in North and South Korea. North Korea has pursued 'universalization of medical security' through national monopoly of means of production. Medical care system of North Korea is characterized as free medical treatment system, the system of district assigned to individual doctor, valuing of preventive medicine, and cooperative medical care between Oriental Medicine and Western medicine. On the other hand, in South Korea the compulsory health insurance program has been implemented for the entire population. Medical Assistance Act has been also introduced to provide medical service to those without the means to pay. Studies of North and South Korean medical care system must be continued in order to explore how the weak points of North and South Korean medical systems make up for, and to minimize social conflict and economic burden in the process of peaceful unification. North Korea has sharply confronted South Korea with totally different politics and ideologies for the last half century. Since the death of Kim Il Sung, the serious economic recession in North Korea has caused food shortage and poor conditions of people's health and quality of life. This study was conducted to provide basic data for developmental and future-oriented model for integration of North and South Korean medical care system through comparatively analyzing the two Korean systems. It goes without saying that contrastive medical care system is developed in North and South Korea. North Korea has pursued 'universalization of medical security' through national monopoly of means of production. Medical care system of North Korea is characterized as free medical treatment system, the system of district assigned to individual doctor, valuing of preventive medicine, and cooperative medical care between Oriental Medicine and Western medicine. On the other hand, in South Korea the compulsory health insurance program has been implemented for the entire population. Medical Assistance Act has been also introduced to provide medical service to those without the means to pay. Studies of North and South Korean medical care system must be continued in order to explore how the weak points of North and South Korean medical systems make up for, and to minimize social conflict and economic burden in the process of peaceful unification.

4월혁명과 북한 아동문학 - 『남녘땅에 기’발 날린다』를 중심으로 : 4월혁명과 북한 아동문학

이순욱(Lee Soon-Wook) 한국문학회 2007 韓國文學論叢 Vol.46 No.-

North Korea defines the April Revolution as ""the April People"s Uprising"", ""the April 19 People"s Uprising"" or ""the April 19 Uprising"" and recognizes it as a massive struggle against the Unites States and the Lee Seung-man administration of South Korea and a historic expression by South Koreans of their desire for a national reunification. This paper aims to explore how the April Revolution is described in children"s literature of North Korea by focusing on A Flag is Flying in the South(Children"s Books Publishing Company, September 15, 1960), a collection of children"s literature praising the April Revolution. First, the 1960s falls under the category of the Cheollima(Flying Horse) Movement in the history of North Korean literature. The main subject of the literary works during this time was to create an image of a leader, establish a system of socialism, reflect realistic aspects of the Cheollima Movement, embody people"s revolutionary struggle and seek ideologies for national reunification. Distinctively, many works to describe the April Revolution of South Korea were created. Various types of literature regarding the Revolution including poems, political discussions, essays, plays, critics, and children"s literature were produced as opposed to South Korea. Mass produced in North Korea through such official papers as Joseon Munhak and Munhak Sinmunor separate books, the literary works on the April Revolution focus on disclosing the anti-humanitarian aspect of the South Korean society and describing heroic behaviors and a fighting spirit of the public. In other words, the April Revolution was utilized by the North both as an opportunity to publicize the superiority of the North Korean regime and as an educational means to enhance revolutionary spirit of the residents, to criticize the United States and the Lee Seung-man administration. Second, it was effective for the North Korean regime to turn to children"s literature, which served as a vehicle of political propaganda, in developing and internalizing its ideologies. Children"s literature in North Korea faithfully followed these ideologies, so the antiimperialism sentiment, the criticism of South Korea"s Lee Seung-man administration and the laudation for socialism were prevalent in the literature during the first half of the 1960s. A case in point is A Flag is Flying in the South, which is North Korea"s the only revolutionary literature collection describing the April Revolution in the 1960. This children"s collection can be seen as a educational book meticulously prepared on the literary educational level unlike other literary works published in papers. Third, A Flag is Flying in the South contains eights poems for children, one ocherk, one play for children and one drama. These works mainly depict the tyranny and repression by the US imperialism, the exposure of the anti-humanitarian situation in South Korea and heroic struggles of the general public. It is consistent with the main subject of the Cheollima literature that the resistance and the anti-humanitarian aspects of the South Korean society should be revealed in contrast to North Korea"s socialism. The Cheollima Movement is a part of efforts to preempt the revolution against the powerful class in South Korea and the United Stated in a wide range of areas including ideologies, technologies, culture as well as economy. In this context, the characters of South Korean protests in this collection can be considered ""jockeys of Cheollima(Flying Horse)."" Therefore, A Flag is Flying in the South served as children"s literature textbook for political propaganda and was a result of meeting the demands of the North Korean literary circles to create literary works on the April Revolution of South Korea.

통일, 남과 북, 기독교의 역할

박영환(Park, Young-whan) 한국선교신학회 2009 선교신학 Vol.22 No.-

The South Korea is setting wholistic crisis, such as world economic crisis, hard economic crisis, and nuclear problem of North Korea. The North Korea directly talk with the United States and Obama president address about the North Korea, so South-North Korea have uncomfortable relationship each other. In this situation, I defined the roles of South Korea Christian through three step in the article. First, the North Korea is inseparable from understanding of the South Korea against speech of Mass media. Some speeches wrong announce between North Korea and South Korea relationship, the North Korea ahead attack to South Korea. If North Korea give up nuclear, the South Korea actively change recognition with relationship of the North Korea. Second, the direction of South Korea government attempts to “partnership and cooperation”, improve to relationship with the North Korea through denuclearization. Third, the role of South Korea Christian and normality of South- North relationship can support denuclearization of North Korea. Now the Christianity of South Korea got the trust from North Korea, because the Christianity continual support from a humanitarian point of view to the North Korea. Therefore, the Christianity of South Korea should be try to deeply search benefit toward the North Korea mission and unification. I think that this answer is the Bible. The South Korea and Christianity need more reconciliation, forgiveness, devotion, and consideration toward the North Korea. It may help to establish trust each other to the unification of South-North Korea.

북한 김정일정권의 대남·통일정책 변화:[로동신문] 분석을 중심으로

전미영 통일연구원 2006 統一 政策 硏究 Vol.15 No.1

Kim Jong-il Administration's South Korea Policy :Analysis of Rodong Sinmun The purpose of this paper is to analyze the North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's South Korea Policy focused on the analysis of North Korean Newspaper, 'Rodong Sinmun'. The content analysis of 'Rodong Sinmun' is based on analysis of editorial article and slogan.The results of analysis are as follows. First of all, North Korea's perception of South has changed and North Korean traditional policy, 'Strategy of South Korea Revolution', was virtually abolished. The main factors which changed the policy are international environment, domestic economic deadlock and the rise in international competitiveness of South Korea. As the situation turned out unfavorable for North Korea, South Korea policy of North Korea pursued the practical purpose. If North Korean aim of the policy toward the South is to seek the maximum profit, it seems a realistic choice to make North Korea to make more profit by improving the inter-Korean relation than arousing conflicts and hostility. Consequently, it is true that the inter-Korean relation has many unstable factors. On the other hand, it is undeniable that Kim Jong-il Administration wants to improve it. This means that they have taken to the stage not to go against the reconciliation and the cooperation with South Korea for the economic recovery and the regime maintenance.

North Korea’s South Korea Policy: An Evaluation of Determining Variables and Prospects for 2012

한기범 통일연구원 2011 International journal of korean unification studie Vol.20 No.2

The focus of this article is twofold. First, it will review the variables that have critically impacted North Korea and its policies toward South Korea during the terms in office of several former South Korean presidents. Second, it will make some predictions about North Korean policy for 2012 based on an analysis of the characteristics and background of North Korea’s stance toward South Korea during the Lee Myung-bak government. Simply put, the two Koreas both tend to take relatively hard-line policies when North Korean regime is unstable,whereas soft-line policies emerge when the regime stablizes. North Korea’s policy toward South Korea is largely determined by U.S.-related variables; it is also affected, however, by whether South Korea takes a soft or hard stance toward North Korea. The North tends to approache the South at times when Seoul seeks to engage Pyongyang and Washington takes a tough stance. When Washington shows flexibility, Pyongyang does not take the initiative in the inter-Korean relationship but focuses on its relationship with Washington. In sum, variables related to the two Koreas tend to determine the larger direction of North Korea’s South Korea policy, while U.S.-related variables have more specific impact on the forcefulness of North Korea’s approach to South Korea. North Korea has generally taken a hard-line policy during the Lee government, but it has frequently and erratically shifted its tactics between highly provocative, threatening moves and sporadic, poorly-executed attempts at dialogue. It seems that Seoul’s consistent stance toward Pyongyang and the weakening of the inter-Korean dialogue system have forced the reclusive regime to make such erratic tactical changes. It is highly likely that North Korea will continue its unfriendly South Korea policy such as inflicting tensions and provocative acts as usual in 2012. Given that there are a number of factors contributing to the North’s negative strategies toward South Korea, North Korea will need to build tensions for internal consolidation,closing the door on the South’s North Korea policy. With upcoming presidential elections both in South Korea and the U.S. overlapping for the first time in 20 years, North Korea will also exert its utmost efforts to foment negative public sentiment in the South toward the existing policy and to replace the Lee administration with new government which is friendly to the North.