학술논문 : 특집논문 ; 북한 3대 세습체제에 따른 북한의 변화와 대남 영향 : 김정은 후계체제와 북한의 군사위협

윤규식 ( Kyu Sik Yoon ) 한국군사학회 2010 군사논단 Vol.64 No.-

The transfer of power in North Korea provides an emergency situation to South Korea. There was a large military provocation towards South Korea when the power of Kim Il-sung was transferred to Kim Jung-il. There is currently a military threat of North Korea towards South Korea as the power of Kim Jung-il is being transferred to Kim Jung-eun at the moment. The decision of Kim Jung-il to appoint Kim Jung-eun on the top position in the army through the Party Representative Meeting was a preview for the military provocation towards South Korea. The easiest way to show the military ability in the successor`s point of view is the military provocation towards South Korea. Therefore, the theory that the instigator of the Cheonan Vessel incident and the bombing provocation in Yeonpyeong Island is Kim Jung-eun is becoming persuasive. As Kim Il-sung started the Korean War by believing the revolt of the left-wing influence in South Korea, the division of the public opinions in the Korean society in regard to the Cheonan Vessel incident seems to be the biggest factor which has caused the "Yeonpyeong Provocation" of North Korea. The internal dispute in Korea in regard to the sinkage of the Cheonan Vessel can be definitely regarded as the factor which has made the North Korean government to decide another provocation more easily. The most popular comment over the last decade under the rule of the past government has been "Peace must be bought with money." Such a comment has probably been adopted to rationalize the situation of helping North Korea endlessly without providing a definite solution. The money which the people of South Korea provided to buy peace has come back to us like a boomerang in such forms as nuclear weapons, submarines, coast batteries and howitzers. The truth which we can be aware of through the history is that "Peace can never be bought with money." The idea that the North Korean government will give up nuclear weapons when all of its desires are satisfied is naive. Instead, such an idea will strengthen the position of North Korea and make its strategy more effective. That is the painful lesson which we could get through the negotiation with North Korea, which we have executed over the last two decades to make North Korea give up its nuclear weapons. Therefore, it can be said that "There is no future for the people who do not learn anything from the history." With the bombing provocation by North Korean in Yeonpyeong Island, it has been proved that there is no possibility of actualization for the expansion of reconciliation and cooperation between two Koreas through the improvement of the relationship with North Korea. North Korea has not been changed at all for several decades, because the army is the core basis of power in regard to the hereditary system over three generations. The North Korean army is fundamentally conservative. It is the group which is far from communication and reconciliation. Even when the conversation between two Koreas was active, North Korea showed the twofold action of executing the military provocation. The `brinkmanship` has been often used to establish beneficial conditions in the process of foreign negotiation. The North Korean government has specified the regulations of the Labor Party through the Party Representative Meeting. By using the "Military-First" policy, the North Korean government has specified its position of executing the military-based policy. This is why it is inevitable to expect the military collision on the Korean peninsula. Also, this is why the diplomacy and the military strategy in the period under the ruling of Kim Jung-il are continued inevitably in the period under the ruling of Kim Jung-eun. For the stable management of the hereditary system, the North Korean government will continue to cause military threat and provocation according to the needs.

북한의 무인기 위협과 한국의 대응

김강녕 한국국회학회 2023 한국과 세계 Vol.5 No.2

This paper is to analyze North Korea's unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV, drone) threat and South Korea's response. To this end, conclusions were drawn after examining UAVs and asymmetric threats, North Korea's UAV threat status and evaluation, and the ROK's response to North Korea's UAV threat. Recently, North Korea is attempting a new type of provocation against the South by unmanned aerial vehicles, such as invading a no-fly zone. In the case of North Korean drone infiltration, asymmetry exists due to operational asymmetry and the possibility of terrorism against South Korea. North Korea's unmanned aerial vehicle development is on the trend of shifting from the existing intelligence/surveillance/reconnaissance purposes to attacks. The background of North Korea's unmanned aerial vehicle development comes from North Korea's security, symbolic, and threatening motives and effects. In order to respond to North Korea's drones in the future, it is necessary to actively promote tasks such as ①enhancing public- private-military cooperation, ②establishing joint drone command, and ③enhancing cooperation at the ROK-US alliance level. 본 논문은 북한의 무인기 위협과 한국의 대응을 분석하기 위한 것이다. 이를 위해 무인기와 비대칭위협, 북한의 무인기 위협 현황 및 평가, 한국의 북한 무인기 위협 대응과제를 살펴본 후 결론을 도출하였다. 최근 북한은 비행금지구역을 침범하는 등 무인기에 의한 새로운 형태의 대남도발을 시도하고 있다. 북한의 무인기 침투의 경우 운용상의 비대칭성과 대남 테러 가능성으로 인해 비대칭성이 존재한다. 북한의 무인기 개발은 기존의 정보·감시·정찰의 목적에서 공격용으로 전환되는 추세이다. 북한의 무인기 개발배경은 북한의 안보적·상징적·대남위협적 동기 및 효과에서 나온 것이다. 향후 북한의 무인기 대응을 위해 ①민·관·군 협력 제고, ②합동 드론사령부 창설, ③한미동맹 차원의 협력 제고 등의 과제를 적극 추진해 나가야 할 것이다.

한·미 연합 군사연습에 대한 북한의 대응 분석: 군사적 위협 변수의 재검토

윤안국,안경모 한국국방연구원 2018 국방정책연구 Vol.34 No.1

The purpose of this study is to analyze North Korea’s response to the joint ROK-U.S. military exercise, focusing on military threat and domestic politics. Especially, this study focuses on review of the military threat variables and then tries to explain the North Korea’s responses to the military exercise that are not explained by military threat variables such as domestic politics. This study analyzes articles in Rodong Sinmun(1976-2017). In this article, the high and low levels of military threats are measured by the intensity of the joint ROK-U.S. military exercise. In other words, the intensity of military exercises is a manipulated value of military threats. The higher the strength of the military exercise, the more likely it is assumed that threat perception has increased. The intensity of the joint ROK-U.S. military exercise is evaluated by the number of forces, the period of exercise, the presence of U.S. strategic assets such as aircraft carriers and strategic bombers, and the content of the exercise. As a result, two variables such as 'military threat' and 'domestic politics' are meaningful to explain various responses from North Korea to the joint ROK-U.S. military exercise. It is necessary to consider the overall analysis of North Korea’s response. 본고의 목적은 한미 연합 군사연습에 대한 북한의 대응을 군사적 위협, 국내정치 측면에서 분석하는 것이다. 한·미 연합 군사연습에 대한 북한의 대응을 총체적으로 분석하기 위해서는 ‘군사적 위협’ 측면뿐만 아니라 ‘국내정치’ 측면에서도 함께 고려해야 한다는 가정을 세우고, 연구를 시도했다. 본고는 1976년부터 2017년까지의 노동신문 기사 분석을 기반으로 하고 있다. 본고에서 군사적 위협의 높고 낮음은 한미 연합 군사연습의 강도로 측정한다. 즉, 군사연습의 강도는 군사적 위협을 조작화한 수치로서, 군사연습의 강도가 높아지면, 그에 따른 위협인식이 높아졌다고 가정하는 것이다. 한미 연합 군사연습의 강도는 참가병력, 기간, 전략자산 참가 여부 그리고 연습내용을 기준으로 판단한다. 결과적으로 ‘군사적 위협’ 및 ‘국내정치’ 변수는 한·미 연합 군사연습에 대한 북한의 다양한 대응을 설명할 수 있다는 데 그 의의가 있고, 이 두 가지 변수를 종합적으로 고려해야 북한의 대응에 대한 총체적인 분석을 할 수 있는 것이다.

신 국제질서 재편과 한국의 구심력 안보전략

정경영 ( Chung Kyung-young ) 한국군사학회 2018 군사논단 Vol.93 No.-

Challenge and threat facing the Republic of Korea are serious. Strategy and determination are imperative for ROK to encounter the U.S.-China global hegemony rivalry, conflict between liberal and illiberal international order, North Korea’s nuclear threat and peace offense, and ROK’s domestic friction. Toward a vision of a unified G7 Korea, self-reliant security posture should be consolidated. And multi-layered diplomacy should be conducted along with the U.S. as value ally, and China as non-antagonistic and friendly country. Being aware of non-coexistance of North Korea’s nuclear and peace, the ROK should manage the post-Pyeongchang Winter Olympic Games by South-North Korea, and the U.S. trilateral dialogue for denuclearization. In the event of North Korea’s nuclear and missile provocation, ROK should reinforce sanction and pressure with the ROK-U.S.-Japan military cooperation to neutralize North Korea’s nuclear and missile systems by military action. At the same time, North Korea’s nuclear and missile threat is the ROK’s survival issue. Trinity among the ROK government, people and military is urgent to tackle the challenge. The Republic of Korea which has never defended its country for itself ever since the late Lee Dynasty armed forces were forcibly deactivated by Japanese imperialism in 1907. Establishing truly military forces as the backbone of the ROK by the transition of wartime operation control, the ROK will be born again, and will vigilantly encounter North Korea’s nuclear threat. It will be expected that North Korea including neighboring countries will never underestimate the ROK’s power.

북한의 비대칭 위협에 대한 군사 영역별 대응 요소에 관한 연구

이장규(Lee, Jang-Kyu) 한국군사문제연구원 2021 한국군사 Vol.10 No.-

본 연구는 북한 비대칭 위협에 대한 군사영역별 대응을 위해 국방정책, 군사전략, 위기관리 영역 군사전문가들의 설문 연구를 통해 군사적 대응 요소에 대한 중요도 및 우선순위를 분석하는데 그 목적이 있다. 북한 비대칭 위협 대응 방안에 대한 기존 선행연구는 주로 문헌 연구였다. 본 연구에서의 북한의 위협 및 대응을 다루는 군사 실무자들을 대상으로 설문조사 및 면담을 통하여 수집한 자료를 통계기법을 활용하여 대안을 도출하였다. 조사연구 결과, 북한의 비대칭 위협에 대응하기 위한 국방정책, 군사전략, 위기관리의 3가지 영역에서 상위 요인과 하위 요인을 도출하였고 상·하위 요인별 중요도와 우선순위를 도출하였다. Currently, North Korea is doing its best to strengthen its asymmetric military power despite the deterioration of the economic situation and strong sanctions from the UN and the international community. In particular, asymmetric military strategy to achieve relative military advantage over Korean troops by strengthening nuclear and missile, biochemical weapons, special warfare units, and cyber power is a very serious threat to Korean security. The purpose of this study is to analyze and synthesize the importance and priorities of response factors through a survey of military experts in defense policy, military strategy, and crisis management for military response to such asymmetric threat to North Korea. Most of the previous studies on the countermeasures against North Korea’s asymmetric threat were qualitative studies of subjective opinions through literature studies in academic aspects. Therefore, this study conducted quantitative research based on the analysis of previous studies and questionnaires, not the theory and subjective proposal of North Korea’s asymmetric threat. In other words, the results of the survey were analyzed and synthesized through technical statistics after conducting a survey on a group of military experts who have practical experience related to North Korea’s asymmetric threat, and they were differentiated from other studies in terms of deriving North Korea’s asymmetric threat countermeasures. This study is very meaningful and necessary in that it presented the importance and priority of realistic alternatives and asymmetric threat factors that can overcome the current security crisis in Korea due to the strengthening of North Korea’s asymmetric power.,In particular, the results of the study derived from the analysis of the top factors and each sub-factor of defense policy, military strategy, and crisis management will be very helpful for the development of asymmetric threat response strategies and the construction and operation of military power., It will also contribute to the development of academic research related to North Korea’s asymmetric threats in the future.

북한의 핵 위협에 대응한 한국의 군사전략

박창희 세종연구소 2017 국가전략 Vol.23 No.4

This paper aims to conceptualize South Korea’s military strategy to counter North Korean nuclear threats. While focusing on introducing cutting-edge weapon systems to win over North Korean nuclear and missile capabilities, ROK military has neglected on developing concepts to deal with such threats. Especially, it has not much heeded the question of “how to fight and win” if North Korea breaks out a war with nuclear weapons. As a result, ROK military, lacking thorough analysis on changing threats and strategy of North Korea, has failed to grasp proper direction for developing its countering strategy. This research, therefore, examines how North Korean military threats and strategy have evolved, and suggests South Korean deterrence strategy and warfighting strategy. We should not think “all is over,” or “war is impossible” because North Korea has nuclear weapons. Under current situation, it is important to analyse how North Korean regime would employ its nuclear weapons and missiles with what intention and purpose, and to prepare a strategy to respond effectively. This paper will propose the concepts of “comprehensive tailored deterrence strategy” and “short-term annihilation strategy based on preemption.” 이 글은 북한의 핵위협에 대응하기 위한 한국의 군사전략을 개념적으로 모색하는데 목적이 있다. 지금까지 한국군은 북한 핵위협을 억제하기 위해 첨단무기를 도입하는데 주력해 왔지만 상대적으로 이에 대비한 군사전략 개념을 발전시켜 이를 ‘한국화’하는 데에는 소홀한 면이 있었다. 특히, 북한이 핵 능력을 고도화하고 있는 상황에서 만일 북한이 핵전쟁을 야기한다면 우리는 ‘어떻게 싸워 승리해야 하는가’에 대한 고민이 많지 않았다. 그 결과 북한의 변화하는 군사위협과 군사전략에 대한 냉철한 분석이 결여되고, 나아가 이에 대비하기 위한 한국군의 군사전략에 대한 방향과 개념을 명확히 잡지 못하고 있는 것으로 보인다. 이에 이 연구는 먼저 북한의 군사위협 및 군사전략이 어떻게 변화하고 있는지를 살펴보고 한국의 군사전략을 억제전략과 전쟁수행전략으로 구분하여 제시하고자 한다. 북한이 핵을 가졌다고 해서 상황을 비관하여 ‘이제 전쟁은 안 된다, 북진도 불가능하다, 모든 것이 끝났다’는 식으로 생각해서는 안 된다. 북한이 어떠한 상황에서 어떠한 의도와 목적을 가지고 어떠한 방식으로 핵 및 미사일을 운용할 것인지를 분석하고, 그에 부합한 대응개념을 마련하는 것이 중요하다. 이 연구는 그러한 개념으로서 ‘총체적 맞춤형 억제전략’과 ‘선제기반의 단기섬멸전략’을 구상하여 제시하고자 한다.

중국위협론의 실체와 우리의 대비방향 연구

박계호 ( Gye Ho Park ) 미래군사학회 2012 한국군사학논총 Vol.1 No.1

In 1948 People’s Republic of China unified and then experienced stagnation under the Mao administration in the 1950s and 1960s. In the 1980s Deung Xiao Ping initia -ted the open-door and reform policy. Based on 10% or more economic growth every year, its size of economy expanded to the unseen level. By 2010 it has surpassed Ja -pan``s economic size and reached to the second largest economy in the world. With its economy its military might has expanded as well. The Chinese military has incr -eased its capability by modernizing the weapons system and introducing new equi -pments. With its expanded national strength China is now trying to exert its power to neighboring countries, while the US and Japan do not acknowledge this tendency. What is clear is the fact that China is expanding its military might and gives a per -ception to its neighbors that China is a threat. This phenomenon has occurred in the Spratly islands disputes with the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea. With recent introduction of aircraft carrier, this fear of China as a threat is becoming a reality. In addition, China as the chair of 6 party talks has the key to resolve the North Korea``s nuclear issue. Some speculate that China might has a possibility of conducting military intervention on to North Korea, if there is a sud -den turmoil in North Korea. It is due to the fact that China has a direct stake on to the Korean matters. China also has a variety of stakes on the issues of maritime territorial conflicts, fishing problems, and distortion of history matters. If things become worse and problems become escalated to the serious level of conflicts, then Korea should face China which has the second largest economy and soon a regional hegemon in the Asia-Pacific region. One day, this can be a reality to Korea as China being a threat; and thus, this is the reason why Korea has to see the reality of China as a threat and prepare for it.

북한 핵미사일 위협과 대한민국 거부적 억제능력 고찰 -육군의 대북전략과 대응전력을 중심으로-

하대성 대한정치학회 2018 大韓政治學會報 Vol.26 No.1

North Korea is evaluated to complete miniaturizing・diversifying・ lightening their nuclear warhead after launching missiles 32 times as well as conducting 4 nuclear experiments, including the recent Hwasung-14 ICBM last July 4th, and 6th nuclear test on september 3rd making them being considered as a nuclear state. In this research, I have reviewed whether the denial nuclear deterrence strategy and military deterrence capabilities of South Korea is sufficient against the nuclear・missile threats of North Korea according to the current circumstance where South Korea isn't able to possess a nuclear weapon. Further more analysing the ROK Army's actual capabilities and military options that will be committing to Kill-Chane and Massive Retaliation Strategy against the nuclear・missile threats of North Korea. 북한은 지난 7월 4일 화성-14 ICBM의 시험발사, 9월 3일 6차 핵실험 등 김정은 정권 들어 4차례의 핵실험과 32차례의 탄도미사일 시험발사를 통해 상당한 숫자의 핵무기를 개발했고 이를 탄도미사일에 장착해 공격할 수 있는 소형화・경량화・다종화에 성공한 것으로 판단되며 자타 공히 핵보유국의 지위를 가진 것으로 평가되고 있다. 본 연구는 북한 핵・미사일 위협과 보복적 억제전략을 살펴보고 핵무기를 가질 수 없는 상황에서 대한민국의 거부적 핵억제전략과 군사적 억제능력은 충분한지 분석하고, 킬체인과 대량응징보복에 참가하는 전력을 중심으로 육군의 대북전략과 전력을 분석하여 북한의 핵・미사일 위협에 대한 실현 가능한 군사적 옵션을 검토하였다.

동북아 안보정세의 변화와 한국의 국방정책의 과제

김강녕 ( Kang Nyeong Kim ) 조선대학교 동북아연구소(구 통일문제연구소) 2011 동북아연구 Vol.26 No.1

본 논문은 동북아 안보정세의 변화와 한국의 국방정책의 과제를 분석하기 위한 것이다. 이를 위해 동북아 안보정세의 변화와 미래전의 양상, 한국의 국방목표와 국방정책의 기조, 한국의 국방정책의 과제 등의 순서로 살펴본 후 결론을 도출해보았다. 동북아에서는 역내 국가들 간의 상호교류와 다자협력이 중대되고 있다. 그러나 북핵문제, 양안문제, 역사문제, 영토문제, 해양경계선 확정문제와 같은 갈등요인과 함께 이를 둘러싼 주변국들의 경쟁적인 군사력 증강은 여전히 역내안보 불안요인으로 작용하고 있다. 북한은 국제제재와 경제난에도 불구하고 2012년 강성대국 건설을 위해 총역량을 결집하고 있다. 수적 규모에서 세계 4위 재래식 전력과 핵을 비롯한 대량살상무기의 개발은 우리를 심각하게 위협하고 있다. 국방부는 2l세기 전략환경과 미래전 양상에 부합하는 ``정예화된 선진강군``을 육성하기 위해 국방개혁을 추진하고 있다. 개혁의 기본방향은 국내외 다양한 안보위협에 대처할 수 있도록 군구조를 개편하고 실용적 선진국방운영체제틀 발전시키는 것이다. 우리군은 가용 국방재원을 효율적으로 활용하여 북한의 침투·국지도발 위협에 우선 대비하면서 전면전과 잠재적 위협에도 대비하여 전쟁을 억제하고 전승을 보장할 수 있는 최적의 선진군사역량을 건설해 나가는 일에 최선을 다해야 할 것이다. 이를 위해 조기경보능력과 실시간 감시능력을 구비하고, 네트워크 중심전(NCW) 수행이 가능한 C4I체계를 구축하며, 기동·타격전력체계의 질적 개선을 도모해 나가야 할 것이다. This paper aimed to analyse the changes of security situation in Northeast Asia and the tasks of national defence policy of the Republic of Korea. For the purpose of that, this paper searched for the changes of security situation in Northeast Asia and future warfare in general, the objectives and tenets of the national defence policy, the ROK`s national defence policy tasks, and concluded. Within Northeast Asia, mutual exchanges and multilateral cooperation have been increasing. Yet the causes for disputes and the maritime demarcation issue, still exist leading concerned nations to compete against one another in bolstering their military power, which destabilizes the region. Despite the sanctions levied by the international community and its economic hardships, North Korea has put its utmost effort into constructing a strong and prosperous nation by the year 2012. The fact that North Korea has the world`s fourth largest conventional military force and that it has developed WMDs. including nuclear weapons, poses a serious threat to peace on the Korean Peninsula. The Ministry of National Defense(MND) strives to reform national defense by building slim but strong advanced ROK military forces capable of meeting the challenges posed by the changing strategic environment of the 21st century and future warfare in general. The basic policy direction for national military reform is to change the military structure and develop a pragmatic, advanced defense operational system to counter various security threats posed at home and abroad. Our military should do its best to build advanced military capabilities capable of ensuring deterrence and victory incases of an all-out war as well as coping with the threat of local provocations by North Korea by making systems. the C4I system, which enables network-centric warfare, and a mobile strike capability will be obtained.

안보환경의 변화와 국가안보전략

김강녕(Kang-nyeong Kim) 성신여자대학교 동아시아연구소 2015 국가와 정치 Vol.21 No.-

본 논문은 안보환경의 변화와 우리의 군사안보적 대응과제를 분석하기 위한 것이다. 이를 위해 한반도를 위요한 안보정세의 변화, 박근혜 정부의 국가안보전략, 군사안보적 대응전략의 순서로 살펴본 후 결론을 도출해 본 것이다. 북한은 만성적인 경제·식량난에도 불구하고 핵·미사일 개발과 대남 적화전략을 포기하지 않고 있다. 특히 동북아는 21세기 세계 정치·경제의 중심으로 부상하고 있으나 역사 인식과 도서·해양영유권 문제를 둘러싸고 역내 국가 간의 갈등이 증대되고 있다. 오늘날 세계 안보환경은 전통적인 군사적 위협이 상존하는 가운데 초국가적·비군사적 위협이 지속적으로 증가하고, 세계 경제위기가 장기화되면서 더욱 복잡해지고 있다. 이러한 안보환경 속에서 세계 각국은 자체 안보역량을 강화하는 동시에 평화와 안정을 위한 국제사회의 노력에 동참하는 등 상호 협력과 견제를 병행하고 있다. 우리 군은 대한민국의 발전을 튼튼한 안보로 뒷받침해왔다. 한미군사동맹은 지난 60여 년 동안 북한의 군사적 위협을 억제하는 동시에 동북아 지역의 안정에도 크게 기여해왔다. 한국의 군사안보적 대응책은 크게 ①확고한 국방태세 확립과 미래지향적 방위역량 강화, ②한미전략동맹 발전과 국제안보협력 증진으로 요약해 볼 수 있다. 향후 몇 년간은 세계, 동북아, 한반도에서의 안보환경이 급격히 변화될 가능성이 높으며, 우리 국민 모두가 하나로 단결하여 확고한 안보태세를 갖추어야 할 중요한 시기가 될 것이다. 우리 군은 대한민국의 수호자이자 세계 속의 강군으로서 한반도의 평화를 굳건히 지키고, 세계평화에 기여할 수 있는 선진강군 육성을 위해 최선을 다해야 할 것이다. The aim of this paper is to analyze changes in security environment and ROK's strategies. To this end, the paper is composed of 5 chapters titled introduction, Park Geun-hye Administration’s national security strategies, changes in security environment surrounding Korean Peninsula, ROK's military security strategies, and conclusion. Despite chronic economic crises and food shortages, North Korea is relentlessly pursuing nuclear and missile development while maintaining an adversarial strategy towards the ROK. Although Northeast Asia is emerging as the political and economic center of the world in the 21st century, tensions in the region are increasing over disparate interpretations of history, and sovereignty over islands and territorial waters. Today’ global security environment is becoming ever more complex with the continued presence of traditional military threats coupled with an increase of transnational and non-military threats, against the backdrop of a prolonged global economic downturn. In such an environment, states are strengthening their national security while simultaneously supporting international efforts towards peace and stability. In fact, they are cooperating with other states but at the same time treating them as competitors. The ROK Armed Forces have supported Korea's growth by guaranteeing the continuation of unequivocal security. The ROK-U.S. Alliance has deterred North Korea’ military threat for the past60 years and concurrently contributed greatly to the stability of Northeast Asia. ROK's major military security strategies are as follows: (1)Robust defense posture and establishing future-oriented defense capabilities, (2)Development of ROK-U.S. strategic alliance and promotion of international security cooperation. It is highly likely that the security environment of the Korean Peninsula, Northeast Asia, and the world will rapidly change over the next few years. As the guardian of the ROK and as a global military force, our Armed Forces should strive to become a advanced military that upholds peace on the Korean Peninsula, and contributes to similar efforts on the international stage.