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      • 학술논문 : 특집논문: 한국과 중국 관계개선을 위한 지향점? ; 한,중 수교 20년과 양국의 군사관계 -평가와 전망을 중심으로-

        기세찬 ( Se Chan Ki ) 한국군사학회 2011 군사논단 Vol.65 No.-

        This study attempts to estimate the relations between Korea-China after the Korea-China amity and suggests the way of developments between Korea-China military relations. The relations between Korea-China has been growing throughout all the branches of politics, economics, cultures, and militaries over twenty years. But after 2008, the international situation around Korea-China became even worse due to the global financial crisis, deterioration of North Korea-U.S. relations, and impasse of South Korea-North Korea. As we have seen from the attack against the ROK corvette Cheonan and the shelling Yeonpyeong Island, the two countries failed to keep close contact to deal with those incidents and to sustain strong ties that had shaped since the beginning of the amity based on the growth of trades. Therefore, Korea-China relationship needs to develop not rhetoric but content. Although Both Korea and China have exposed differences over some problems, it is important to build two countries will be advanced to be more practical and cooperative relationship for the benefit of the two countries. To achieve this, the two countries have to have proper plans, preparations, and upgrade military relations beyond economics. We could say Korea-China military relations is a mutual exchange relationship. To develop the Korea-China relations at the practical level, we need to consider overall the relations between U.S.-China and North Korea-China that directly affect the Korea-China relations. We can`t establish the higher level relations, unless China adjusts China-North Korea alliance or the U.S. understands the development of Korea-China relations.

      • KCI등재

        중미 글로벌-지역 이중 극체제로 본 북중관계

        하상섭,이수원 한국세계지역학회 2023 世界地域硏究論叢 Vol.41 No.3

        This study aims to examine how China’s realization of polarity in international relations and its threat perception on the U.S. have affected China-North Korea relations in the post-Cold War era. Since the end of the Cold War, the world has formed a U.S.-led unipolar system, while East Asia has been a bipolar system between the U.S. and China. China has jumped on the U.S. bandwagon but confronted it when the U.S. has posed threats to East Asia where China's vital interests reside. When it has had cooperative relations with the U.S., China has kept a certain distance from North Korea, which is under international sanctions over its nuclear issue, while strengthening its relations with the DPRK when it has conflicted with the U.S. History has shown this pattern. Relations between China and North Korea, which had deteriorated since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and South Korea in 1992, normalized after China felt threatened by NATO’ military attack on Yugoslavia in 1999. Relations between the two countries, which had deteriorated following North Korea's first nuclear test in 2006, strengthened despite the DPRK's second nuclear test in 2009 as the South Korea-U.S. alliance strengthened after the Lee Myungbak administration took power. Worsened relations between China and the DPRK caused by North Korea's continued nuclear tests and missile provocations since Xi Jinping took power strengthened again when the U.S. began to balance against China in 2018. This pattern makes us predict how China-North Korea relations will be in the future. If conflict intensifies between the U.S. and China, China-North Korea relations will be strengthened. On the other hand, if U.S.-China relations turn to a cooperative stance, China-North Korea relations are likely to become estranged. It is predicted that conflictual relations between the U.S. and China would continue, and therefore, close relations between China and North Korea would persist for the time being.

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        시진핑 시대 중국의 국가전략과 한반도 정책 연관성 연구: 미중·북중·한중 관계의 상호작용을 중심으로

        이재영 계명대학교 국제학연구소 2023 국제학논총 Vol.38 No.-

        본 연구의 목적은 시진핑 시기 국가전략과 한반도 정책의 연관성을 파악하기 위해 쟁점을 도출하고, 이러한 쟁점 속에서 미중관계, 한중관계, 북중관계의 상호작용을 분석하는 것이다. 시진핑 시대 국가전략의 쟁점인 북핵 문제 속에서 미중 전략경쟁이 북중 관계에 미치는 영향을 살펴보고, 대만 문제를 통해 미중 전략경쟁과 한중 관계의 연관성을 고찰한다. 그리고 동아시아 지역 안보에 대한 분석을 통해 한미동맹의 강화와 한중관계 사이의 상호작용을 살펴보고, 신냉전 구도 속 북중러와 한미일의 진영 대립을 고찰한다. 한반도 정책의 쟁점인 한반도 3원칙과 쌍중단·쌍궤병행을 분석하면서 중국이 북한을 두둔할 때 사용하는 북한의 합리적 안보 우려 해결이 한반도 비핵화 목표를 대체할 수 있는지와 기존 한반도 문제 해법의 한계와 대안 모색 가능성을 살펴본다. 그리고 대북 제재 완화와 중국의 역할론을 고찰함으로써 미중 전략경쟁 속 북중 밀착의 의미를 분석한다. 마지막으로 한국의 중국 배제 소다자주의 참여가 한중관계에 미치는 영향을 살펴본다. 결론적으로 도출된 쟁점을 분석한 결과, 미중 전략경쟁은 주로 북중관계와 한중관계에 영향을 미치고, 한미동맹 강화와 한미일 협력 역시 한중관계 및 북중관계와 상호작용을 일으킨다. The purpose of this study is to derive important issues in order to understand the relationship between grand strategy and Korean Peninsula policy during the Xi Jinping period, and to analyze the interaction between US-China, South Korea-China, and North Korea-China relations within these issues. This paper examines the impact of U.S.-China strategic competition on North Korea-China relations amidst the North Korean nuclear issue during the Xi Jinping era, and explains the connection between U.S.-China strategic competition and South Korea-China relations through the Taiwan issue. Through analysis of regional security in East Asia, this study examines the strengthening of the ROK-US alliance and the interaction between South Korea-China relations, and explains the confrontation between North Korea-China-Russia and South Korea-US-Japan in the new Cold War structure. In terms of the issue of Korean Peninsula policy, this paper analyzes China’s three principles on the Korean Peninsula and dual suspension/dual track parallelism policies, whether resolving North Korea’s reasonable security concerns that China uses when protecting North Korea can replace the goal of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and the limitations and alternatives of existing solutions to the Korean Peninsula problem. And by examining the easing of sanctions against North Korea and China’s role, the meaning of North Korea-China closeness in the US-China strategic competition is explained. Lastly, this study examines the impact of South Korea’s participation in the small groups excluding China, led by the United States. on South Korea-China relations. In conclusion, in these issues, the strategic competition between the US and China mainly affects North Korea-China relations and South Korea-China relations, and the strengthening of the ROK-US alliance and South Korea-US-Japan cooperation also interact with South Korea-China relations and North Korea-China relations.

      • KCI등재

        수교 이후 한중관계의 평가와 신형관계(新型關係)를 위한 정책제언

        황재호 가천대학교 아시아문화연구소 2020 아시아문화연구 Vol.53 No.-

        Since the establishment of diplomatic ties in 1992, Korea China relations have made great strides, including the expansion of civilian exchanges, close economic ties, finding commons in diplomatic and security interests, and promoting the political exchanges. While such close bilateral relation is continuously developing in quantity, it is qualitatively exposed to complex and various difficulties. Korea China relations are falling into a dilemma. In Korea’s perspective, China is a partner in terms of Korea’s unification, in reducing current North Korea’s threat, and in generating economic benefits. However, at the same time, it is also considered that China is not sufficiently active in either Korea’s unification or North Korea’s denuclearization, and that China is encroaching Korea’s history and culture. Moreover, the rising competitiveness in economic cooperation is raising the wariness toward one another. Furthermore, as in a larger perspective, such as in the relations of the US China, China North Korea, or North South Koreas, a number of views are interpreting that Korea is sacrificing its national interest when it comes to Korea China relations. This becomes the base of Korean’s low likability toward China. Korea and China should make an approach in longer historical perspectives at a calm pace. As the bilateral relationship development is on a historical trend, there is no need to be harsh in a partial situation or fall in joy or grief too seriously. It should be rather become an opportunity to strengthen the fundamentals of bilateral relations and establish the New type of Korea China relations, pursuing the high efficiency, massive quantity, and positive energy, that can be resolved through dialogue and communication in the event of conflicts and misunderstandings. The New type of Korea China relationship refers to “the transformation into a relationship that allows the un affordable expectations of each other to be lowered but ensures continued development”. Instead of the excessive expectations, both should exclude the bubbles and make a soft landing of a ‘new normal’ in the relations between Korea and China. In short, as two countries have multiple consensuses on philosophy and culture, as they can share interests in security and economy, and that they can cooperate in mid and long term visions and short and mid term policies, Korea China’s bilateral relations should be viewed in a prospective and a longer perspective. 1992년 수교 이후 한중관계는 민간교류의 확대, 경제관계의 밀착, 외교안보 이익의 접점 찾기, 정치교류의 격상 등 큰 발전을 이뤄왔다. 양국관계는 양적으로 발전할수록 질적으로는 관계의 복잡성으로 인해 다양한 어려움에 노출되는 딜레마에 빠졌다. 한국은 중국을 남북통일을 위해, 현재 북한으로부터의 위협을 감소시키기 위해, 경제적 이익을 창출하기 위해 협력대상으로 보기는 하지만 한편으로 한국의 역사와 문화를 침탈하며, 남북통일과 한반도 비핵화에 적극적이지 않고, 경제협력의 경쟁측면이 강해지면서 경계 심리가 강해지고 있다. 또한 중국이 한중관계를 미중관계의 큰 틀에서 접근하면서 한국의 국익을 희생시킨다는 시각이 많다. 때문에 한국인들의 중국에 대해 호감도가 매우 낮은 것이 현실이다. 하지만 양국의 관계발전은 역사적 추세인 만큼, 너무 한 상황에 매몰되거나 한 국면에 일희일비할 필요가 없다. 양국 관계의 펀더맨틀을 보강하고 갈등과 오해가 발생해도 대화와 소통으로 해소 가능한 고효율(高效率), 고질량(高質量), 정능량(正能量)의 신시대 신형한중관계(新型韓中關係)를 수립해야 한다. 신형한중관계란 “서로에 대한 감당할 수 없는 기대는 낮춰 잡되 지속적인 발전을 담보할 수 있도록 하는 관계로의 전환”을 말한다. 과도한 기대 대신 거품을 뺀 한중관계의 신창타이(新常態)를 연착륙시켜야 한다. 즉 양국은 철학과 문화에 공감대가 많고 안보와 경제에 이익을 공유하며 중장기 비전과 단・중기 정책 협력할 분야가 많은 만큼 양국관계는 역사적으로 멀리 내다보고 긴 호흡으로 접근해야 한다.

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        냉전시기 중공의 외교노선과 북중관계의 전개

        한상준(Han Sang Jun) 중국근현대사학회 2021 중국근현대사연구 Vol.91 No.-

        This paper examines the development of North Korea-China relations during the Cold War by analyzing the foreign policy of Communist China from the 1950s and to the 1970s. From a macroscopic perspective, the distinctiveness of North Korea-China relations during the Cold War was defined by the Cold War structure in East Asia that forced solidarity between the two countries. Amid the Cold War confrontation between the two ideological camps, there was a basic coincidence of interests and positions between North Korea and China, which were pitted against the ‘common enemy,’ the United States. Factors such as the common historical experience of fighting together in war, the closely interdependent geopolitical conditions, and the ideological homogeneity of the communist regime, all acted together to further strengthen the solidarity between North Korea and China. In other words, the distinctiveness of North Korea-China relations stemmed from the circumstances and conditions in which the two nations had to share mutual interests. North Korea-China relations from the 1950s to the 1970s were influenced by the distinctiveness of the bilateral relations, China’s policy on the Korean Peninsula, and changes in Communist China’s foreign policy. Among them, the distinctiveness of North Korea-China relations and China’s policy on the Korean Peninsula have influenced North Korea-China relations as fixed constants. And the foreign policy chosen by Communist China in line with the changes in the international environment surrounding North Korea and China was a variable that affected the relations between the two countries. The greatest national task facing Communist China since the establishment of the regime was to successfully implement the economic construction of New China, and for that purpose, stability in the international environment around China was absolutely necessary. Accordingly, China’s foreign policy aimed to create a stable international environment, and China’s policy to maintain the status quo on the Korean Peninsula was prepared as an extension of such a diplomatic line. Therefore, China’s policy toward North Korea during the Cold War was derived from China’s policy to maintain the status quo on the Korean Peninsula. China’s policy to maintain the status quo on the peninsula was consistent throughout the Cold War era, and it was a constant that defined the development of North Korea-China relations between the 1950s and the 1970s along with the distinctiveness of North Korea-China relations. Meanwhile, North Korea-China relations during the Cold War were also influenced by China’s domestic and international situations and China’s foreign policy, which were variables in the development of the bilateral relations. This paper analyzes the relationship between North Korea and China amid the characteristics of China’s diplomatic lines for each period from the 1950s to the 1970s. Chapter 1 examines China’s policy toward North Korea and the development of North Korea-China relations in the 1950s, when China was completely focused on its relations with the Soviet Union. During this period, China implemented an ‘interventionist policy’ toward North Korea based on close cooperation with the Soviet Union. China’s ‘interventionist policy’ toward North Korea switched to an ‘appeasement policy’ in 1956, and this study explains the cause, process, and result of such a policy shift in the context of the development of North Korea-China relations in the 1950s. Chapter 2 analyzes the impact of China’s ‘left turn’ in China’s foreign policy in the 1960s, the escalating conflict between North Korea and China during the Cultural Revolution, and the deepening of the Soviet security threat to China on the development of North Korea-China relations. Chapter 3 explores the impact of China’s great diplomatic change in the 1970s on North Korea-China relations, and examines the relationship between the two countries in the context of Communist Ch

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        Enemy, Homager or Equal Partner?: Evolving Korea-China Relations

        김흥규 서울대학교 국제학연구소 2012 Journal of International and Area Studies Vol.19 No.2

        Since the formal establishment of South Korea (hereafter, Korea)-the People’s Republic of China (hereafter, China) relations in 1992, the bilateral relationship has recorded tremendous success in terms of trade volume, cooperation on the North Korean nuclear crisis, and the magnitude of exchanges in various areas. However, it is also true that the bilateral relations still remain far from satisfaction in terms of depth and degree of communication, crisis management, and a shared vision. Given Korean’s psychological alertness and apprehension formed over a long history of contacts with China, differences in political system, mutual misperceptions, and degree of understanding, these problems cast serious challenges for future relations between the two countries. In the future, Korea-China relations could be sour and bumpy if the Korean government relies excessively on security-oriented approaches, centering on its alliance with the U.S. Korea needs to exercise a “creative middle power-pragmatic diplomacy” in dealing with China. The objective is to establish a positive-sum game in the Korea-China strategic cooperative partnership, extending consultation and cooperation beyond security issues on the Korean Peninsula. Both the Korea-U.S. alliance and the Korea-China strategic cooperative partnership should be the foundation of Korea’s diplomatic assets, under which Korea would try to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear program. The substance of Korea-China relations will be determined by the policies of each government to consolidate the “cooperative strategic partnership.” Sound communication, political will, and strategic management matter. The future relationship of Korea with China is at the crossroad among the ranges of being enemy, homager, or equal partner. Korea obviously favors the establishment of an equal partnership with China, based upon the common principles of mutual respect, cooperation, and co-prosperity.

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        미·중 전면적 전략 경쟁시대 중국의 대북정책과 북·중관계: 미·중관계와 북·중관계의 연관성

        신상진 ( Shin Sangjin ) 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 2020 국방연구 Vol.63 No.4

        이 연구는 미·중관계가 중국의 대북정책에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 특히 미국 트럼프 행정부가 중국을 전면적 전략경쟁 상대로 규정하고 강도 높은 압박정책을 전개한 후 중국의 대북 정책과 북핵 정책에 어떠한 변화가 나타났는지를 분석했다. 이를 통해 미·중관계가 중국의 대북정책과 북·중관계에 영향을 미치는 중요한 변수로 작용하고 있다는 점을 논의했다. 또한 중국이 대미 관계에서 북한을 어떻게 인식하고 활용하는가, 중국의 대미 관계에서 북한의 전략 가치가 증대되었는가를 살펴보았다. 또한 미·중관계가 중국의 대북 정책에 영향을 미치는 핵심 요인이기는 하지만, 미·중관계가 불투명하고 대립구도가 심화되는 상황에서 중국의 안보에 전략적 완충역할을 할 수 있는 북한이 어떠한 태도를 보이는가도 북·중 관계에 중요한 영향을 준다는 점을 확인했다. 이는 북한이 미·중 사이에서 줄타기를 통해 전략이익을 추구하고 있다는 점을 의미한다. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of U.S.-China relations on China's North Korea policy, under the assumption that the China-North Korea relations are determined by the superpower politics. In particular, this study analyzed the changes in China's North Korea policy and North Korea's nuclear policy after the United States began to refer to China as a strategic rival. Through this study, it has been confirmed that the U.S.-China relationship is a decisive variable which affects China's North Korea policy and China-North Korea relations. The study also examined how China perceives and uses North Korea to deal with the United States, and whether the strategic value of North Korea has decreased or increased in China's relations with the United States. Since U.S.-China relations has been entered comprehensive strategic competition, it has been confirmed that the attitude and behavior of North Korea, which is a strategic buffer in China's security, has an important influence on China-North Korea relations. This means that North Korea is pursuing strategic interests through tightrope walking between the U.S. and China.

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        중국의 대한반도 정책과 한국의 대응전략 -미중·한미관계 및 한중·북중관계를 중심으로-

        김진호 한국동북아학회 2018 한국동북아논총 Vol.23 No.2

        In the process of China's changing toward a great power, China has been emphasizing the "New relations between big powers" and said, "The Pacific is wide enough to be managed by the major Great Powers. US has also being replaced by India and Pacific Strategy from the "rebalancing" and "pivot to Asia" strategies in Asia. At present, East Asia is a region where US’s global strategy and China's East Asian strategy are confronted. It seems to be competition between Western chess and Chinese chess. It means the challenging between the power nation and the nation that willing to become powerful nation. Nowadays Some scholars have argued that China's economic and military upsurge may lead to a power shift in East Asia. But scholars who believe in the stability of the US-led world system see the possibility is low. International relations in Northeast Asia are currently facing conflicts such as the confrontation between the US, Japan, South Korea's alliance system and China, Russia, North Korea’s partnership. Also, There are opposing forces such as the North Korean nuclear issue and bilateral relations conflicts between Taiwan straight. In this paper, I try to analyze the possibility of power shift by China 's rising in Northeast Asia, and examine what China' s strategy for the Korean Peninsula and the individual strategy against Korea and North Korea in the environment of recent international issues surrounding the Korean Peninsula, In the position of China, the Northeast Asia region is very important, because it is the gateway for China to expand its influence into the Pacific Ocean. Korea is also faced with North Korea's provocations now. Besides, China is currently seeking to strengthen its influence by exploiting the dynamics and geopolitical advantages of international relations in Northeast Asia, which will be a new challenge to the security environment in Korea. This paper focuses on the prediction of what the changes of China 's Northeast Asian strategy might be in Korea' s security environment. 중국이 강대국을 목표로 변화하는 과정에서 ‘신형 대국관계(新型大國關係, 후에 신형국제관계로 변함)’를 강조하며 “태평양은 미중 양 대국이 같이 관리할 수 있을 정도로 넓다(寬廣的太平洋有足够空間容納中美兩個大國).”라고 한 주장과 전략은미국의 ‘재균형(Rebalancing)’과 ‘아시아로의 회귀(Pivot to Asia)’전략에서 발전된 인도·태평양전략으로 대치되고 있다. 동아시아 국제관계는 미국의 세계전략과 중국의 전략이 서로 충돌하는 형상으로, 강대국과 강대국이 되려는 국가 사이에서양 체스와 중국 장기(象棋) 양식의 경쟁이 일어나고 있다. 현재 동아시아에서 중국의 경제·군사 능력 상승과 대외영향력이 증대함에 따라 일부 학자는 해당 지역에서 세력전이가 일어날 수도 있다고 주장도 하지만, 미국 주도 세계체제의 안정성을 신뢰하는 학자들은 이러한 세력전이 가능성을 낮게 본다. 그러나 외형상 동북아 국제관계는 미국·일본·한국의 동맹체제와 중국·러시아·북한의 협력체제의 대립 및 북핵문제와 양안(兩岸) 갈등과 같은 진영 간 대립이 지역 안보, 경제에 영향을 미친다 할 수 있다. 본 논문은 동북아에서 중장기적으로 중국에 의한 세력전이가 일어날 수 있는지에 대해 분석하며, 북핵문제로 복잡해진 한반도 주변 국제환경에서 중국의 대(對)한반도 전략 및 한국과 북한에 대한 개별 전략이 무엇인지 알아보는데 중점을두었다. 동북아지역은 중국이 주장하는 바와 같이 ‘중국이 외부로 진출하기(走出去)’ 위한 관문이자, 중국은 현재 동북아국제관계의 역학관계 및 지정학적 장점을 활용하며 자국의 영향력을 강화하는 상황이다. 동북아에서 새로운 대국의 출현과그 영향력 강화는 북한 핵 도발과 더불어 한국의 안보환경에 새로운 도전이 되기도 하는데, 본 논문은 중국의 동북아 전략이 한국의 안보환경에 어떤 변화를 일으킬 수 있는지와 그에 대한 대응은 무엇인지 알아보는데 중점을 두었다.

      • KCI등재

        Enemy, Homager or Equal Partner?

        Heungkyu Kim 서울대학교 국제학연구소 2012 Journal of International and Area Studies Vol.19 No.2

        Since the formal establishment of South Korea (hereafter, Korea)-the People’s Republic of China (hereafter, China) relations in 1992, the bilateral relationship has recorded tremendous success in terms of trade volume, cooperation on the North Korean nuclear crisis, and the magnitude of exchanges in various areas. However, it is also true that the bilateral relations still remain far from satisfaction in terms of depth and degree of communication, crisis management, and a shared vision. Given Korean’s psychological alertness and apprehension formed over a long history of contacts with China, differences in political system, mutual misperceptions, and degree of understanding, these problems cast serious challenges for future relations between the two countries. In the future, Korea-China relations could be sour and bumpy if the Korean government relies excessively on security-oriented approaches, centering on its alliance with the U.S. Korea needs to exercise a “creative middle power-pragmatic diplomacy” in dealing with China. The objective is to establish a positive-sum game in the Korea-China strategic cooperative partnership, extending consultation and cooperation beyond security issues on the Korean Peninsula. Both the Korea-U.S. alliance and the Korea-China strategic cooperative partnership should be the foundation of Korea’s diplomatic assets, under which Korea would try to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear program. The substance of Korea-China relations will be determined by the policies of each government to consolidate the “cooperative strategic partnership.” Sound communication, political will, and strategic management matter. The future relationship of Korea with China is at the crossroad among the ranges of being enemy, homager, or equal partner. Korea obviously favors the establishment of an equal partnership with China, based upon the common principles of mutual respect, cooperation, and co-prosperity.

      • KCI등재

        2022년 우크라이나 전쟁 이후 북·러 협력 강화에 관한 중국의 딜레마

        황상필 한국아시아학회 2023 아시아연구 Vol.26 No.4

        The North Korea–Russia summit held in September 2023 drew global attention as the two nations, the former facing international condemnation for nuclear missile tests and the latter embroiled in the war in Ukraine, committed to comprehensive cooperation. Beyond economic ties, North Korea and Russia are deepening their military collaboration, actively shaping a new Cold War dynamic that positions South Korea, the United States, and Japan against North Korea, China, and Russia. If a trilateral alliance materializes with China’s active involvement, as sought by North Korea and Russia, the security landscape in Northeast Asia may further deteriorate. However, despite potential advantages, China remains apprehensive about the risks associated with active collaboration with North Korea and Russia. This study examines the dilemmas faced by China regarding the strengthening cooperation between North Korea and Russia following the beginning of the war in Ukraine in 2022. This paper argues that the formation of a distinct trilateral alliance of North Korea, China, and Russia is improbable, primarily due to China’s passive engagement. The reasons are as follows: First, the strengthening bonds between North Korea and Russia may intensify discussions within the international community regarding China’s responsibility. Should China opt for extensive cooperation with North Korea and Russia—a possibility that would greatly concern the international community amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and North Korea’s provocations—it would be highly likely to negatively impact global perceptions of China and impede the expansion of its influence. Second, the deepening of North Korea–Russia relations could strengthen the security cooperation of the United States, Japan, and South Korea, strengthening the US strategy of encircling China. As China seeks to expand its dominance in Northeast Asia, any association with North Korea and Russia, the disruptors of the international order, could lead to a new Cold War structure that would pit it against South Korea, the United States, and Japan. Third, the strengthening of North Korea–Russia relations would reduce both countries’ relative dependence on China, potentially weakening China’s influence in international negotiations on the resolution of the war in Ukraine and the issue of North Korea. In particular, if Russia’s influence over North Korea expands significantly, China may, depending on the circumstances, seek to hold it in check.

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