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정재승,최한용,송해령,변석수,서성일,송채린,조진선,이상은,안한종,이은식,김원재,정문기,정태영,유호송,최영득 대한의학회 2010 Journal of Korean medical science Vol.25 No.10
We developed a nomogram to predict the probability of extracapsular extension (ECE)in localized prostate cancer and to determine when the neurovascular bundle (NVB)may be spared. Total 1,471 Korean men who underwent radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer between 1995 and 2008 were included. We drew nonrandom samples of 1,031 for nomogram development, leaving 440 samples for nomogram validation. With multivariate logistic regression analyses, we made a nomogram to predicts the ECE probability at radical prostatectomy. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC)analyses were also performed to assess the predictive value of each variable alone and in combination. The internal validation was performed from 200 bootstrap re-samples and the external validation was also performed from the another cohort. Overall, 314patients (30.5%) had ECE. Age, Prostate specific antigen (PSA), biopsy Gleason score,positive core ratio, and maximum percentage of biopsy tumor were independent predictors of the presence of ECE (all P values <0.05). The nomogram predicted ECE with good discrimination (an area under the ROC curve of 0.777). Our nomogram allows for the preoperative identification of patients with an ECE and may prove useful in selecting patients to receive nerve sparing radical prostatectomy.
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정재승,최영득,최한용,송해령,변석수,서성일,송채린,조진선,이상은,안한종,이은식,황태곤,김원재,정문기,정태영,유호송 연세대학교의과대학 2011 Yonsei medical journal Vol.52 No.1
Purpose: Due to the availability of serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing, the detection rate of insignificant prostate cancer (IPC) is increasing. To ensure better treatment decisions, we developed a nomogram to predict the probability of IPC. Materials and Methods: The study population consisted of 1,471 patients who were treated at multiple institutions by radical prostatectomy without neoadjuvant therapy from 1995 to 2008. We obtained nonrandom samples of n = 1,031 for nomogram development, leaving n = 440 for nomogram validation. IPC was defined as pathologic organ-confined disease and a tumor volume of 0.5 cc or less without Gleason grade 4 or 5. Multivariate logistic regression model (MLRM) coefficients were used to construct a nomogram to predict IPC from five variables, including serum prostate specific antigen, clinical stage, biopsy Gleason score, positive cores ratio and maximum % of tumor in any core. The performance characteristics were internally validated from 200 bootstrap resamples to reduce overfit bias. External validation was also performed in another cohort. Results: Overall, 67 (6.5%) patients had a so-called “insignificant” tumor in nomogram development cohort. PSA, clinical stage, biopsy Gleason score, positive core ratio and maximum % of biopsy tumor represented significant predictors of the presence of IPC. The resulting nomogram had excellent discrimination accuracy, with a bootstrapped concordance index of 0.827. Conclusion: Our current nomogram provides sufficiently accurate information in clinical practice that may be useful to patients and clinicians when various treatment options for screen-detected prostate cancer are considered.
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