예산의 톱니현상에 대한 실증연구

도헌수,이상철,이윤근 명지대학교(서울캠퍼스) 금융지식연구소 2019 금융지식연구 Vol.17 No.3

We empirically investigate whether increases in sales targets are positively related to previous year performance relative to target. We also examine that when previous year performance fails to meet target, the relationship between target changes and performance is lower. Moreover, we test the moderating effect of monitoring on the association between target changes and performance. Using 742 store-year data of an apparel company in Korea from 2014 to 2017, we perform ordinary least square regression analysis to achieve the purpose of research. We find that prior-year performance relative to target has significantly positive effect on increases in sales targets, which implies that budget ratcheting occurs. In addition, we also find evidence that the relationship between target changes and performance is lower when previous performance falls short of target, which means that target changes downward are smaller. Further, we present evidence that the association between target changes and performance is significantly weaker when the monitoring of the head office on sales managers increases. These test results provide the empirical evidence on the existence of budget ratcheting and asymmetric pattern of ratcheting. Moreover, the finding on monitoring as one of the factors affecting ratcheting makes differentiated contributions to the existing research. Thus this study can not only provide additional test results on ratcheting in a different setting from previous research, but also facilitate future empirical research on ratcheting. This study also helps practitioner to understand the characteristics that affect the goal setting and to develop control mechanism in budgeting process. 본 연구에서는 당기 예산목표와 성과의 차이가 차기 예산목표에 반영되는 예산의 톱니현상이 존재하는지 여부와 톱니현상이 목표달성여부에 따라 차이가 있는지 검증하였다. 그리고 해당 영업점 매출실적이 전체 매출실적에서 차지하는 비중이 높을수록 톱니현상이 감소하는지 살펴보았다. 의류를 제조하여 판매하는 A기업의 2014년부터 2017년까지 742개 영업점-년을 표본으로 선정하고, 해당 영업점 자료를 회귀분석을 이용하여 실증적으로 분석하였다. 연구결과, 당기의 성과가 차기의 예산수준에 영향을 미치는 예산의 톱니현상이 존재하는것으로 나타났다. 영업점이 당기 매출목표를 달성하지 못한 경우, 당기 예산목표와 성과의차이가 차기 예산목표에 반영되는 톱니현상이 감소되는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 영업점 매출이 전체 매출실적에서 차지하는 비중이 높을수록, 톱니현상이 감소하는 결과를 얻었다. 예산의 톱니현상과 톱니현상에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대한 실증 선행연구가 부족한 현실에서, 본 연구는 톱니현상과 관련된 향후 실증연구를 진행하는데 도움을 줄 수 있다는 점에서 학문적 의의를 찾을 수 있다. 뿐만 아니라, 본 연구는 예산편성 실무에서 목표설정에 영향을 미치는 특성을 이해하는데 도움을 줄 수 있다는 점에서 실무적 의의도 찾을 수 있다.

독립적인 기관투자자 투자기간이 경영자 이익조정과회사채신용등급에 미치는 영향

도헌수,이상철,이윤근 한국상업교육학회 2018 상업교육연구 Vol.32 No.5

In this paper, we examine whether the investment horizon of independent institutional investors decreases manager’s earnings management and as a result increases the credit rating of bond. Using a comprehensive sample of 2,326 non-financial firm-year data listed on the Korea Stock Exchange from 2003 to 2014, we find the following empirical results. First, we find that investment horizon of independent institutional investors has a positive effect on bond rating. Second, we present that investment horizon of independent institutional investors has a negative effect on manager’s earnings management. Third, we discover that manager’s earnings management has a negative impact on bond rating. Fourth, we unveil that investment horizon of independent institutional investors has a negative effect on manager’s earnings management, thereby increasing bond rating. These results indicate that manager’s earnings management plays important mediating role in the relationship between independent institutional investor’s investment horizons and bond rating.

감시와 보상이 예산의 톱니현상에 미치는 영향

도헌수,이상철,이윤근 한국회계정책학회 2020 회계와 정책연구 Vol.25 No.3

[Purpose]This study investigates empirically whether the sales target change in the following year is positively associated with performance to target sales in the current year. In addition, the study examines the moderating effects of monitoring and compensation for branch managers on the relationship between target change and performance to target. [Methodology]Using 742 branch-year data of an apparel company in Korea from 2014 to 2017, we perform ordinary least square regression and White-corrected regression analysis to test the research models. [Findings]We find evidence that performance relative to target sales in the current year has significantly positive effect on target change in the following year. This test result implies that target ratcheting exists. We also find that the association between target change and performance to target is lower when current performance falls short of target, which means that the asymmetric pattern of target ratcheting occurs. In addition, we present evidence that the association between target change and performance to target is significantly weaker when the monitoring of the head office on branch managers as well as the compensation for branch managers increase. These test results imply that monitoring and compensation for branch managers are important factors affecting target ratcheting. [Policy Implications]The test results of this study provide the empirical evidence on the existence and asymmetric pattern of target ratcheting. Furthermore, the test results present the evidence that monitoring and compensation for branch managers can affect the target ratcheting. These findings not only make differentiated contributions to the existing research in target ratcheting, but also facilitate future empirical research. In addition, the study helps practitioners to understand the characteristics that affect the goal setting and to develop control mechanism in budgeting practice. [연구목적]본 연구는 영업점의 당기 목표와 성과의 차이가 차기와 당기의 목표 차이에 반영되는 예산의 톱니현상이 존재하는지 여부와 영업점의 톱니현상이 목표달성여부에 따라 달라지는지를 실증자료를 이용하여 검증하였다. 또한 영업점 관리자에 대한 감시와 보상이 영업점의 톱니현상에 미치는 효과를 검증하였다. [연구방법]2014년부터 2017년까지 A기업의 B브랜드를 판매하는 742개 영업점-년 자료를 표본으로 선정하였다. 톱니현상의 존재와 톱니현상에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석하기 위해 선행연구에 기초하여 연구모형을 설정하였으며, 최소자승회귀(ordinary least squares regression) 방법과 White-corrected 회귀모형을 이용하여 검증을 실시하였다. [연구결과]영업점의 당기 목표와 성과 차이가 차기와 당기의 목표 차이에 유의적인 양의 영향을 미치는 톱니현상의 존재를 확인하였다. 영업점이 당기 목표를 달성하지 못한 경우, 톱니현상이 감소되는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 EDI를 도입한 영업점에서 톱니현상이 감소되는 것으로 나타나, 영업점 관리자에 대한 감시가 강화되면 톱니현상이 완화되는 것으로 파악되었다. 또한 영업점 관리자에게 제공되는 총수수료가 크면 톱니현상이 감소되는 것으로 나타나, 경영자에 대한 보상수준이 높아지면 톱니현상이 감소되는 것으로 파악되었다. [정책적 시사점]톱니현상에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대한 실증연구가 부족한 상황에서, 톱니현상에 영향을 미치는 감시와 보상이라는 새로운 변수를 발견했다는 점에서 선행연구와 차별화되는 의의가 있다. 영업점 관리자에 대한 감시와 보상이 톱니현상을 감소시키는 효과가 있다는 본 연구의 결과는 예산을 편성하고 효과적으로 실행하기 위한 방안을 마련하는 과정에서 감시와 보상이라는 개념을 고려해야 한다는 시사점을 제공한다는 측면에서 정책적 의의를 찾을 수 있다.

영업점 효율성과 톱니현상

이윤근,도헌수,이상철 한국회계정책학회 2023 회계와 정책연구 Vol.28 No.3

[Purpose]This study empirically examines the effect of branch efficiency on target ratcheting. The study also investigates the moderating effects of branch monitoring, compensation for branch performance and branch age on the relationship between branch efficiency and target ratcheting. [Methodology]The sample consists of 742 branch-year data of a Korean apparel company from 2014 to 2017. Regression models are developed based on Leone and Rock (2002) for empirical tests. We perform ordinary least square regression analysis to test the research model. [Findings]We find evidence that target ratcheting exists as well as branch efficiency negatively affects target ratcheting. In addition, we present evidence that the negative effect of branch efficiency on target ratcheting is statistically significant when branch monitoring, compensation for branch performance and branch age are higher. On the other hand, when branch monitoring, compensation for branch performance and branch age are lower, the impact of branch efficiency on target ratcheting is not significant. [Policy Implications]This study shows empirical evidence on not only the existence of target ratcheting but also branch efficiency as a factor affecting target ratcheting. Furthermore, the study presents evidence that branch monitoring, compensation for branch performance and branch age affect the association between branch efficiency and target ratcheting. These test results not only add important empirical evidence to the existing research on target ratcheting but also help future empirical research. The results also help budget staffs to understand the factors affecting target ratcheting and to prepare better control systems in budgeting practice.

경영자 능력과 예산 톱니현상

이상철(Sang Cheol Lee),도헌수(Hunsoo Do),이윤근(Yunkeun Lee) 한국관리회계학회 2024 관리회계연구 Vol.24 No.3

[Purpose] In this study, we analyze the relationship between managerial ability and budget ratcheting. We first examine whether an increase in managerial ability leads to a reduction in budget ratcheting. And then we investigate whether the effect of managerial ability on budget ratcheting is amplified under conditions of intense competition, intensive monitoring, and effective managerial incentive compensation.<BR/>[Methodology] Based on the studies by Aranda et al. (2014), Bol and Lill (2015), Bouwens and Kroos (2011), and Leone and Rock (2002), we established research models to analyze the relationship between managerial ability and budget ratcheting. Using data from 742 branch-years of a domestic apparel manufacturing and retail company in Korea from 2014 to 2017, we performed regression analysis.<BR/>[Findings] We find that higher managerial ability of branch managers leads to a decrease in budget ratcheting. We also find that the negative effect of managerial ability on budget ratcheting is stronger under conditions of intense competition, intensive monitoring, and effective managerial incentive compensation.<BR/>[Implications] This study contributes to existing research by identifying managerial ability as a critical factor influencing budget ratcheting. The study also contributes to previous research by uncovering situational factors such as competition, monitoring, and managerial incentive compensation that influence the relationship between managerial ability and budget ratcheting. These findings provide empirical evidence that broadens our understanding of goal setting in budgeting practices and offers practical insights for enhancing budgetary control.