파급효과 예측과 의사결정의 어려움: 의사결정 결과에 대한 책임감과 부담감의 매개효과

이민조,박혜경 한국문화및사회문제심리학회 2017 한국심리학회지: 문화 및 사회문제 Vol.23 No.4

In this research, it was examined whether predicting the ripple effects of events influences decision-making difficulty. In addition, it was examined whether perceived accountability for decision-making results mediates the relation above. In Study 1, participants were presented with policy decision-making vignettes and were asked to report on the ripple effects of their policy decisions as well as on the difficulty of making the decision. Consistent with the hypothesis, the bigger the expected ripple effects, the greater difficulty participants felt in making policy decisions. In Study 2, ripple effect magnitudes were experimentally manipulated such that participants were led to predict big ripple effects in one condition and relatively small ripple effects in another condition. It was investigated whether participants predicting bigger ripple effects would perceive decision-making to be more difficult than participants predicting smaller ripple effects. Whether this relation would be mediated by perceived personal accountability for the results of decision-making was also examined. Consistent with expectations, it was found that in the moral domains of Harm/care, Fairness/reciprocity, and Ingroup/loyalty, participants predicting bigger ripple effects reported more difficult decision-making than their counterparts. The relation above was mediated by perceived personal accountability for decision-making results only in the domain of Ingroup/loyalty. In combination, these results showed that bigger predicted ripple effects contributed to greater decision-making difficulty. In addition, participants felt more responsible for the results of their decisions when predicting bigger ripple effects, which led them to feel greater decision-making difficulty in the domain of Ingroup/loyalty. The implications of these results and future directions for research are discussed. 본 연구에서는 파급효과를 예측하는 것에 따라 의사결정의 어려움이 달라지는지, 그리고 파급효과 예측과 의사결정 어려움 사이의 관계를 의사결정 결과에 대한 책임감과 부담감이 매개하는지 살펴보았다. 연구 1에서는 정책 결정 상황을 제시하여 예측된 파급효과의 크기와 의사결정 어려움 간의 관계를 알아보았다. 그 결과, 결정의 파급효과를 크게 예측할수록 의사결정 시 어려움을 더 크게 경험한 것으로 나타났다. 연구 2에서는 예상되는 파급효과의 크기를 실험적으로 조작하여, 파급효과를 크게 예상하도록 한 조건과 작게 예상하도록 한 조건 사이에서 도덕적 의사결정을 내릴 때 경험하는 어려움의 정도가 다른지 알아보았다. 또한, 예측된 파급효과의 크기와 의사결정 어려움 사이의 관계를 의사결정 결과에 대한 책임감과 부담감이 매개하는지 검증하였다. 그 결과, 가설과 일관되게 예측된 파급효과의 크기가 작은 조건에 비하여 큰 조건에서 위해/돌봄, 공정/호혜, 그리고 내집단/충성심 관련 도덕적 의사결정 시 어려움을 더 크게 경험하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 관계를 의사결정 결과에 대한 책임감과 부담감이 매개하는지 살펴본 결과, 부담감의 매개효과가 내집단/충성심 관련 도덕적 의사결정에서 관찰되었다. 이러한 연구 결과를 토대로 본 연구의 의의와 제한점, 그리고 후속 연구 방향에 대하여 논하였다.

산업연관분석을 통한 초고온가스로 건설 파급효과 분석

이태훈(Tae Hoon Lee),이기영(Ki Young Lee) 한국산업경영시스템학회 2015 한국산업경영시스템학회지 Vol.38 No.4

The VHTR (Very High Temperature gas-cooled nuclear Reactor) has been considered as a major heat source and the most safe generation IV type reactor for mass hydrogen production to prepare for the hydrogen economy era. The VHTR satisfies goals for the GIF (Generation IV International Forum) policy such as sustainablility, economics, reliability and proliferation resist-ance and physical protection, and safety. As a part of a VHTR economic analysis, we have studied the VHTR construction cost and operation and maintenance cost. However, it is somewhat difficult to expect the ripple effect on the whole industry due to the lack of information about Inter-industries relationship. In many case, the ripple effect are based on experts' knowledge or uncertain qualitative assumptions. As a result, we propose quantitative analysis techniques for ripple effects such as the production inducement effect, added value inducement effect, and employment inducement effect for VHTR 600MWt×4 modules construction and operation ripple effect based on NOAK (Nth Of A Kind). Because inducement effect values have been published annually, we predict inducement effect's relation function and estimated values including production inducement effect value, added value inducement effect value, and employment inducement effect value using time series and estimated values are verified with published inducement effects' value. This paper presents a new method for the ripple effect and preliminary ripple effect consequence using a time series analysis and inter-industry table. This ripple effect analysis techniques can be applied to effect expectation analysis as well as other type reactor's ripple effect analysis including VHTR for process heat.

국방무기체계 연구개발 기반 경제적·기술적 파급효과 : 지상·해상·공중 무기체계를 중심으로

신상욱,오천균,임동순,최봉완,Shin, Sang-Wook,Oh, Cheon-Kyun,Yim, Dong-Soon,Choi, Bong-Wan 한국산업경영시스템학회 2018 한국산업경영시스템학회지 Vol.41 No.4

The private sector is currently reviewing the feasibility of the project or deciding economic policies by analyzing the economic ripple effects. However, the arms acquisition project focuses on the need for the national defense weapons system by analyzing the costs and the effectiveness of the analysis and reviewing the necessity and feasibility of the project. In order to analyze the economic ripple effects, KB (the Bank of Korea) prepares and publishes an analysis table of industrial associations in a given unit. IAAR (the industrial association analysis report) is difficult to apply directly to the defense weapons system. Therefore, research on the economic ripple effects applicable to the defense arms procurement project was needed. In this study, we propose the generic methodology for estimating economical and technical ripple effects resulted in acquiring new weapon systems. Based on the analysis of inter-industrial relations, economical ripple effects are estimated with production inducing effects, value-induced effects, employment-induced effects and export-induced effects. Also, the technological ripple effects are estimated with technological intensity represented by investment cost in research and development. To show the validity of proposed methodology, a case study of acquiring new weapon systems such as GR (guided rocket), destroyer, and helicopter is accomplished. From the case study, it is concluded that these economical & technological ripple effects can be used as a reference to decision making in the course of acquiring major future defense weapons systems.

A Study on Factors Influencing the TERRORIST Damage : Focusing on the Mediating Effect of Ripple Effect

Cho Je seong J-INSTITUTE 2018 International Journal of Terrorism & National Secu Vol.3 No.1

This study attempted to analyze the main causes of terrorist incidents. The purpose of this study is to see how it affects terrorist attacks. In particular, this study focused on Ripple Effect. The factors that can be identified before the terrorist attacks were classified as One Ripple Effect as it can detect the phenomenon before the terrorist attacks. These processes would be able to respond in a precise way to reduce terrorist damage. The result of analysis showed that ideology and poverty of the country were not the factors that raised the level of terror damage. Thus, it was confirmed that the damage was increased in the case of Ripple Effect. This was a natural consequence. However, this study could suggest that the variables constructed to identify the ripple effect were measured as identifiable factors before the terrorist attacks, so that prompt and precise responses were required under the same circumstances. This study used Global Terrorism Data(GTD) for research analysis. Data was analyzed from 2014 to 2016, and the raw data was used. In order to measure the independent variables that this study wanted to check, variables were transformed and used in analysis. The independent variables used for this analysis were Ideology, Ripple Effect, and Money Demand. In addition, the dependent variable was used as a damage that combines the wounded and Kills (including terrorists) in the event of terrorism. In the final model, the Money Demand variable was not regularized and was excluded. It is the limit of this study that the poverty of the country is to be confirmed through Money Demand. However, it is clear from the point of view that the demand for money is a proof of poverty, and that the research has proceeded. In conclusion, even in the case of terrorism based on ideology and national poverty, there should be a more precise response to the reduction of damage in the situation where Ripple Effect is predicted. The variables that make up the Ripple Effect include political objectives, message delivery, and terrorist targets. Therefore, even though we did not control many variables, it can be based on the fact that concrete action should be prepared in a situation where there is a concern about ripple effect.

국방무기체계 연구개발 기반 경제적․기술적 파급효과 : 지상․해상․공중 무기체계를 중심으로

신상욱,오천균,임동순,최봉완 한국산업경영시스템학회 2018 한국산업경영시스템학회지 Vol.41 No.4

The private sector is currently reviewing the feasibility of the project or deciding economic policies by analyzing the economic ripple effects. However, the arms acquisition project focuses on the need for the national defense weapons system by analyzing the costs and the effectiveness of the analysis and reviewing the necessity and feasibility of the project. In order to analyze the economic ripple effects, KB (the Bank of Korea) prepares and publishes an analysis table of industrial associations in a given unit. IAAR (the industrial association analysis report) is difficult to apply directly to the defense weapons system. Therefore, research on the economic ripple effects applicable to the defense arms procurement project was needed. In this study, we propose the generic methodology for estimating economical and technical ripple effects resulted in acquiring new weapon systems. Based on the analysis of inter-industrial relations, economical ripple effects are estimated with production inducing effects, value-induced effects, employment-induced effects and export-induced effects. Also, the technological ripple effects are estimated with technological intensity represented by investment cost in research and development. To show the validity of proposed methodology, a case study of acquiring new weapon systems such as GR (guided rocket), destroyer, and helicopter is accomplished. From the case study, it is concluded that these economical & technological ripple effects can be used as a reference to decision making in the course of acquiring major future defense weapons systems.

Economical & Technological Ripple Effects in Acquiring New Weapon System : Focused on Ground․Sea․Air Weapon System

Sang-Wook Shin,Cheon-Kyun Oh,Dong-Soon Yim,Bong-Wan Choi 한국산업경영시스템학회 2018 한국산업경영시스템학회지 Vol.41 No.4

The private sector is currently reviewing the feasibility of the project or deciding economic policies by analyzing the economic ripple effects. However, the arms acquisition project focuses on the need for the national defense weapons system by analyzing the costs and the effectiveness of the analysis and reviewing the necessity and feasibility of the project. In order to analyze the economic ripple effects, KB (the Bank of Korea) prepares and publishes an analysis table of industrial associations in a given unit. IAAR (the industrial association analysis report) is difficult to apply directly to the defense weapons system. Therefore, research on the economic ripple effects applicable to the defense arms procurement project was needed. In this study, we propose the generic methodology for estimating economical and technical ripple effects resulted in acquiring new weapon systems. Based on the analysis of inter-industrial relations, economical ripple effects are estimated with production inducing effects, value-induced effects, employment-induced effects and export-induced effects. Also, the technological ripple effects are estimated with technological intensity represented by investment cost in research and development. To show the validity of proposed methodology, a case study of acquiring new weapon systems such as GR (guided rocket), destroyer, and helicopter is accomplished. From the case study, it is concluded that these economical & technological ripple effects can be used as a reference to decision making in the course of acquiring major future defense weapons systems.

지역주민의 컨벤션센터 파급효과 인식이 개발태도, 지역애착, 지지도에 미치는 영향

김미성 ( Kim Mi Seong ),윤유식 ( Yoon Yoo Shik ) 한국이벤트컨벤션학회 2021 이벤트 컨벤션 연구 Vol.17 No.2

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships among recognition of the ripple effects of the convention center, attitude toward development, community attachment and supports of local residents. Research Design, data, and methodology -A total of 352 valid responses were obtained and utilized for analysis through offline surveys of local residents in Suwon. The collected data were conducted using SPSS 25.0 to analyze the frequency, explore factors, reliability, correlate among variables, and multiple regression analysis. Result - The results showed that all components of ripple effects had a significant influence on attitude toward development. Except for the ‘cultural effect’, other factors of ripple effects showed a significant effect on ‘community attachment’ and only ‘economic effect’ had a significant effect on the ‘support’. As expected, ‘attitude toward development’ showed significant effects on both ‘community attachment’ and ‘support’. Lastly, community attachment also affected support positively. Conclusions - Through the findings, theoretical and practical implication for industry practitioners as well as suggestions for discussed in the conclusion section.

An Economic Ripple Effect Analysis of Domestic Supercomputing Simulation in the Industrial Sector

고미현,김명일,박성욱 한국과학기술정보연구원 2022 Journal of Information Science Theory and Practice Vol.10 No.-

The manufacturing industry is the foundation that drives economic growth, and manufacturing innovation is essential forsustainable growth advantage and the transition into a digital economy. Therefore, major countries actively support the field ofsimulations, which incorporate information and communication technologies into manufacturing, and announce various policies atthe national level along with increasing investment. Simulation technology virtualizes product development processes to replacephysical production and experimentation of products, dramatically reducing time and costs. In South Korea, the Korea Instituteof Science and Technology Information (KISTI) has supported manufacturing companies for about 14 years by providing relevanttechnologies. This study uses the input-output table for the Bank of Korea to analyze the economic ripple effect. First, we identifiedthe domestic industrial sector dealing with the supercomputing-based simulation industry. Then we analyzed its ripple effects bydividing them into the production inducement effect, value-added inducement effect, employment inducement effect, and forward/backward linkage effect. Consequently, when the supercomputing simulation budget of KISTI (28.3 billion won, 2007-2020) wasset as an input coefficient, the analysis showed 45.1 billion won as the production inducement effect, 24.7 billion won as the valueaddedinducement effect, and 282 individuals per 1 billion won as the employment inducement effect. This study is significantin that it derived the effects of the inputs by analyzing the economic ripple effects of the projects of KISTI, which have beensupporting South Korean manufacturing companies for the past 14 years with supercomputing-based simulations.

농어촌산업박람회의 경제적 파급효과 분석

문태형(Mun, Tae Hyoung),권혁태(Kwon, Hyunk Dae),곽영환(Kwak, Young Whan),김재환(Kim, Jae Hwan) 한국서비스경영학회 2012 서비스경영학회지 Vol.13 No.2

The 3rd Made 人 Green Fair recorded the total sales of 1,783 million won with 54 local governments, 139 enterprises and 63,120 visitors from September 5th (Mon) to September 8th (Thurs) of 2011. This looks into industries directly and indirectly related with the 3rd Made 人 Green Fair and analyzes a ripple effect of the fair on national economy. Input-output analysis and input-output table of the Bank of Korea were used for analysis. Input-output analysis model developed by Leontief is the method that has been used the most locally and abroad to measure an economical ripple effect. The expenditure of Made 人 Green Fair is 2,796,691,000 won, adding 558,823,000 won of the host and participating enterprises and 2,237,868,000 won of visitors. Direct and indirect economical ripple effects are 4,802,833,000 won of production inducement effect, 2,234,976,000 won of value added inducement effect and 63.11 persons of employment inducement effect.

Economic Ripple Effects of Health-Functional Food Industry Applying Input-Output Analysis

김동훈,지인배 한국농촌경제연구원 2019 농촌경제 Vol.42 No.S

This study measures the ripple effect of the fast-growing health-functional food industry on the national economy, based on input-output analysis. An endogenous household consumption model is adopted to measure the economic ripple effect, which can measure both direct and indirect effects and inducement effects. The results show that the health-functional food industry mostly procures intermediate goods produced domestically, and also has excellent job creation effects. Also, the health-functional food industry growth contributes to higher economic ripple effects on national industrial development due to high backward linkage effects. However, many small-scale enterprises in the industry show structural weakness.