SSP-RCP 기후변화 시나리오 기반 한반도의 평균 기온 및 온량지수 변화

허지나,김용석,조세라,김응섭,강민구,심교문,홍승길,Jina Hur,Yongseok Kim,Sera Jo,Eung-Sup Kim,Mingu Kang,Kyo-Moon Shim,Seung-Gil Hong 한국기상학회 2024 대기 Vol.34 No.2

Using 18 multi-model-based a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios, future changes in temperature and warmth index on the Korean Peninsula in the 21st century (2011~2100) were analyzed. In the analysis of the current climate (1981~2010), the ensemble averaged model results were found to reproduce the observed average values and spatial patterns of temperature and warmth index similarly well. In the future climate projections, temperature and warmth index are expected to rise in the 21st century compared to the current climate. They go further into the future and the higher carbon scenario (SSP5-8.5), the larger the increase. In the 21st century, in the low-carbon scenario (SSP1-2.6), temperature and warmth index are expected to rise by about 2.5℃ and 24.6%, respectively, compared to the present, while in the high-carbon scenario, they are expected to rise by about 6.2℃ and 63.9%, respectively. It was analyzed that reducing carbon emissions could contribute to reducing the increase in temperature and warmth index. The increase in the warmth index due to climate change can be positively analyzed to indicate that the effective heat required for plant growth on the Korean Peninsula will be stably secured. However, it is necessary to comprehensively consider negative aspects such as changes in growth conditions during the plant growth period, increase in extreme weather such as abnormally high temperatures, and decrease in plant diversity. This study can be used as basic scientific information for adapting to climate change and preparing response measures.

우리나라의 온량지수·한랭지수 변화에 관한 연구

김혜영,유성태,이명훈,김기송,신현탁,김병도 건국대학교 기후연구소 2015 기후연구 Vol.10 No.2

This study analyzed a variation in warmth index and coldness index in South Korea for the past 40 years (1974~2013) and its spatial distribution (2004~2013). To this end, monthly average temperature data in 62 meteorological observation points and 583 meteorological observation points for prevention against disasters in South Korea were used. According to the observed area, the warmth index in general ranged from 56.84(°C·month) to 144.49(°C·month) or so. And an analysis showed that the coldness index ranged from -43.94(°C·month) to 0(°C·month). And overall average warmth index was 104.22(°C·month) and overall average coldness index was -14.42(°C·month). In almost all observation points, these indices tended to increase, and their increase rate was high in an inland urban area in particular. With regard to the spatial distribution, an analysis showed that it was the lowest in the some mountainous areas of Taebaek mountains lying across Gangwon province and around the peak of Mount Halla. And it was high in southwest coastal area including Mokpo, Jeju Island, some areas in the east coast and south coast, and Yeongnam inland regions including Daegu, and so on. It is thought that the above can be utilized as baseline data for explaining the fact such as the productivity of agricultural products, plant phenology, and a change in plant habitat due to climate change.

우리나라의 온량지수·한랭지수 변화에 관한 연구

김혜영,유성태,이명훈,김기송,신현탁,김병도 건국대학교 기후연구소 2015 기후연구 Vol.10 No.2

This study analyzed a variation in warmth index and coldness index in South Korea for the past 40 years (1974~2013) and its spatial distribution (2004~2013). To this end, monthly average temperature data in 62 meteorological observation points and 583 meteorological observation points for prevention against disasters in South Korea were used. According to the observed area, the warmth index in general ranged from 56.84(°C·month) to 144.49(°C·month) or so. And an analysis showed that the coldness index ranged from -43.94(°C·month) to 0(°C·month). And overall average warmth index was 104.22(°C·month) and overall average coldness index was -14.42(°C·month). In almost all observation points, these indices tended to increase, and their increase rate was high in an inland urban area in particular. With regard to the spatial distribution, an analysis showed that it was the lowest in the some mountainous areas of Taebaek mountains lying across Gangwon province and around the peak of Mount Halla. And it was high in southwest coastal area including Mokpo, Jeju Island, some areas in the east coast and south coast, and Yeongnam inland regions including Daegu, and so on. It is thought that the above can be utilized as baseline data for explaining the fact such as the productivity of agricultural products, plant phenology, and a change in plant habitat due to climate change.

칠곡 동영 약초원 인근 산지의 국지 기후 환경 관측 연구

김학윤 ( Hak Yun Kim ),최서환 ( Seo Hwan Choi ),김해동 ( Hae Dong Kim ) 한국환경과학회 2016 한국환경과학회지 Vol.25 No.6

We investigated the local climatological characteristics of the mountain adjacent the Dongyeong herb garden in Chilgok. We established one set of automatic weather system (AWS) on a hill where development of herb garden is in progress. The observations were continued for 2 years(2013. 07-2015.06). In this study, we analyzed the observed data comparing the data of Gumi meteorological observatory (GMO). The results showed that the air temperature(relative humidity) of Dongyeong herb garden were lower(higher) than those of GMO. Especially the differences are more during warm climate season. It means that the gaps of thermal environment between two points are mainly caused by the evaporation effects of forest. In addition, we analyzed the warmth indices(warmth index and coldness index) with the observed air temperature. The warmth and coldness indices indicate about 107 and .12, respectively. The values correspond to warm temperature climate.

경기만 해안 및 도서지역 상록활엽수 식재 타당성 연구

김정철,김도균 한국도서(섬)학회 2019 韓國島嶼硏究 Vol.31 No.1

A variety of development projects has been implemented in the coastal area of Gyeonggi Bay, and parks and green areas have been actively established. Important planted tree species include Pinus thunbergii Parl. while the predominant planting of deciduous broad-leaf trees, which can grow in coastal areas, demonstrates the limitations of reducing environmental hazards in coastal areas such as drifting salty sand, salinity, and strong winds. Accordingly, it is becoming increasingly important to introduce an evergreen broad-leaf tree for the diversity of coastal vegetation landscapes and the reduction of environmental damage. This study investigated the feasibility of planting evergreen broad-leaf trees in Gyeonggi Bay through a climate analysis. The warmth index of key locations ranged from 98.89℃·month∼109.29℃·month while the coldness index ranged from -15.43℃·month∼-21.14℃·month. This proved that Gyeonggi Bay was not suitable for evergreen broad-leaf trees to grow as the warmth index for the growth of evergreen broad-leaf trees ranges from 101℃·month∼117℃·month, and the coldness index is -10℃·month or higher. Although the coastal areas of Gyeonggi Bay were not suitable for the growth of evergreen broad-leaf trees, evergreen broad-leaf trees lived in some parts of the area. There were different levels of growth and 9 families, 15 species, and 1 race were found growing in 74 locations. To introduce evergreen broad-leaf trees into Gyeonggi Bay, an analysis of the environmental factors of the growth locations and the conditions of the growth was necessary. A common trait with the environmental factors of the growth locations was that these locations were less affected by cold snaps in the winter, and accordingly, this study identified the levels of reduced wind and temperature through simulations. After categorizing the spatial characteristics of each growth location and simulating temperature and wind flow velocity at each location, it was discovered that a wind flow velocity of 8.6m/sec recorded in the coastal area was alleviated to 5m/sec∼7m/sec when the wind reached the areas where evergreen broad-leaf trees grew. However, this depended on surrounding factors including buildings and distance from the coastline. It was also discovered that species that grew in contact with buildings had a temperature increase of 1.1℃∼3.4℃ due to the radiant heat released from buildings. An analysis of the correlation between simulation results and the state of growth demonstrated that the wind flow velocity that reached each growth location had the largest effect on the growth of evergreen broad-leaf trees. This study reached a conclusion that considering the enclosure of buildings, the blockage of wind, and the establishment of buffer forests, planting evergreen broad-leaf trees in the coastal area of Gyeonggi Bay requires a wind flow velocity of less than 7m/sec and a minimum temperature of no more than -18.0℃ during a cold snap in winter. 경기만 해안 및 도서지역은 각종 개발사업에 곰솔 등 상록침엽수의 식재로 단순한 해안식생 경관이 연출되고 있어, 해안식생 경관의 다양성과 환경적 피해저감을 위한 상록활엽수 도입의 필요성은 증대하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 기후분석을 통해 경기만 지역에 상록활엽수 식재 타당성을 분석하였는데, 온량지수는 98.89℃·month∼109.29℃·month, 한랭지수는 -15.43℃·month∼-21.14℃·month로, 경기만 지역은 상록활엽수 생장 부적합 지역으로 나타났다. 경기만 지역이 상록활엽수 생장에 부적합 함에도 불구하고 상록활엽수가 9과, 15종, 4,705주가 생장하고 있는 것으로 조사되었다. 경기만 지역에 상록활엽수를 도입하기 위한 생장지점별 환경요인과 생장상태를 분석결과 지점별로 겨울철 한파의 영향을 적게 받는다는 공통점을 가지고 있어서 시뮬레이션을 통한 바람과 기온의 저감 정도를 파악하였다. 생장지점별 기온과 풍속에 대한 시뮬레이션을 한 결과 해안에서 8.6m/sec인 풍속을 건축물, 산림 등 위요 요소와 해안에서의 거리 등에 따라 상록활엽수가 생장하고 있는 지역에 도달한 풍속은 5~7m/sec 수준으로 완화되었으며, 건축물과 연접하여 생장하는 수종은 건축물에서 방출되는 복사에너지에 의해 1.1℃~3.4℃ 정도의 기온상승 효과를 확인할 수 있었고, 시뮬레이션 결과와 생장상태와의 관계를 분석한 결과 각 지점에 도달한 풍속이 상록활엽수 생장에 가장 큰 영향을 미쳤다. 경기만 해안 및 도서지역에 상록활엽수를 식재하기 위해서는 건축물의 위요, 바람의 차단, 완충수림의 조성 등으로 겨울철 한파의 풍속이 7m/sec 미만, 최저기온-18.0℃이상 이어야 한다는 결론에 도달할 수 있었다.

Assessing the impacts of topographic and climatic factors on radial growth of major forest forming tree species of South Korea

Kim, Moonil,Lee, Woo-Kyun,Son, Yowhan,Yoo, Somin,Choi, Go-Mee,Chung, Dong-Jun Elsevier Scientific Pub.Co 2017 Forest ecology and management Vol.404 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>Although the annual diameter growth of trees is vital for assessing site suitability in terms of potential timber yield, the effects of climatic and topographic factors on this variable are poorly understood. The main objective of this study was to develop a tree-level radial growth model incorporating topographic and climatic factors for four major temperate tree species [red pine (<I>Pinus densiflora</I>), oak (<I>Quercus</I> spp.), Japanese larch (<I>Larix kaempferi</I>), and Korean pine (<I>Pinus koraiensis</I>)] in South Korea. The model was developed and then validated using increment cores sampled from permanent plots in the Korean National Forest Inventory country wide. The Standard Growth (SG) of each increment core, which eliminated the effect of tree age on radial growth, was derived using a SG model. Spatial autocorrelation was detected for the SGs of every species, but not for the original radial growth data. The results showed that using the SG model to standardize radial growth for age was successful for explaining the impact of topographic and climatic factors on radial growth. The influence of climatic (warmth index and precipitation effectiveness index) and topographic (topographic wetness index) factors on the SG of each species was evaluated by the estimated SG (eSG) model. Results show that for all species each variable was correlated to SG. The mean <I>R<SUP>2</SUP> </I> of the final radial growth model for red pine, oak, Japanese larch, and Korean pine during 2001–2009 were estimated to be 0.71, 0.73, 0.67, and 0.65, respectively. In addition, for every tree species the time sequence of estimated annual radial growth exhibited similar characteristics to that of the observed annual radial growth on an individual tree scale. Thus, this growth model can contribute to an understanding of the impacts of topographic and climatic factors on tree radial growth and predict the annual growth changes of major tree species in South Korea, given climate change.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> The trend of radial growth with age was eliminated through Standard Growth model. </LI> <LI> The oak is more suitable to growth than the coniferous species under recent weather. </LI> <LI> The growth of coniferous species has been strongly affected by climate than oak. </LI> </UL> </P>

GIS 기반 가야산국립공원의 주요 식물군락 분포요인 분석

김보묵,양금철 한국습지학회 2017 한국습지학회지 Vol.19 No.1

본 연구는 지리정보시스템(Geometric Information System, GIS)을 이용하여 가야산 국립공원의 주요 우점식생인 신갈나 무군락과 소나무군락의 분포에 영향을 미치는 고도, 경사, 사면방위, 지형지수, 연평균 온도, 온량지수, 잠재증발산량 등 7개 요인들을 분석하고, 요인별 식생분포 특성을 밝혔다. 가야산국립공원의 정밀식생 조사(1/5,000축척)결과, 신갈나 무군락(29.42%), 신갈나무-소나무군락(7.38%), 소나무군락(27.66%), 소나무-신갈나무군락(7.44%), 졸참나무군락 (1.40%), 굴참나무군락(1.10%) 등 총 128개의 식생유형이 확인되었고, 이들 중 신갈나무 우점림과 소나무 우점림이 전체 식생의 80.58%를 차지하고 있는 것으로 조사되었다. 분포요인 분석결과, 신갈나무군락과 소나무군락의 고도는 각각 575~1,065m(80.4%), 465~965m(84.1%), 경사는 21°이상(78%), 21°이상(71.3%), 사면방위의 경우 신갈나무는 북사 면, 소나무는 남사면이 우세한 것으로 분석되었고, 지형지수는 모두 5~6에 집중되어 있고, 연평균 기온은 7~8 ℃(83%), 8~9℃(84%), 온량지수는 59~70 ℃ㆍmonth와 58~88 ℃ㆍmonth에서 주로 분포하며, 잠재증발산량은 560~590mm/yr, 580~610mm/yr에서 가장 많은 분포역을 보였다. This study analysed 7 distribution features of dominant natural vegetation, such as elevation, slope, aspect, topographic index, annual mean temperature, warmth index and potential evapotranspiration using geographic information system(GIS) in Gayasan national park. The Gayasan national park has total 128 communities in which Pinus densiflora community occupies with 29.42%, Quercus mongolica community 27.66% relatively. These two communities comprise 80.58% out of total area, considering Q. mongolica & P. densiflora dominantly mixed communities. The Q. mongolica communities range around 575~1,065m(80.4%) in elevation, and the P. densiflora communities range around 465~965m(84.1%), respectively. The slopes of those two communities areas showed over 21°(78.0%) and (71.3%) respectively. In terms of slope aspect occurrence, Q. mongolica communities occur mostly on northern slope, and the P. densiflora communities on southern slope. The topographic indices of both communities occur around 5~6 most frequently. The Annual mean temperature distributions of Q. mongolica and P. densiflora range 7~8℃(83%), 8~9℃(84%), respectively, And the warmth index range of Q. mongolica is 59~70 ℃ㆍmonth and the P. densiflora community, 58~88 ℃ㆍmonth. The potential evapotranspiration ranges mostly from 560 to 590mm/yr, in Q. mongolica communities, and from 580 to 610mm/yr in P. densiflora communities.

인천해안지역의 난온대성 상록활엽수 겨울철 생장에 영향을 미치는 미기후 요인

김정철,김도균 한국조경학회 2019 韓國造景學會誌 Vol.47 No.5

This study investigated the feasibility of wintering evergreen broad-leaf trees in the Incheon coastal area through a climate analysis. The coldest monthly mean air temperature ranged from —2.9℃∼—1.6℃. The warmth index of the coastal area of Incheon ranged from 98.89℃·month-109.03℃·month, while the minimum air temperature year ranged from —13.9℃∼—3.6℃. This proved that the Incheon coastal area was not suitable for evergreen broad-leaf trees to grow as the warmth index ranges from 101.0℃·month∼117.0℃·month, and the temperature year-round is —9.2℃ or higher. This suggests the coastal areas of Incheon is not suitable for the growth of evergreen broad-leaf trees, however some evergreen broad-leaf trees lived in some parts of the area. Wind speed reduction and temperature effect simulations were done using Landschaftsanalyse mit GIS program. As a result of the simulations of wind speed reduction and temperature effects affecting the evergreen broad-leaf trees, it was discovered that a coastal wind velocity of 8.6m/sec was alleviated to be 5m/sec∼7m/sec when the wind reached the areas where evergreen broad-leaf trees were present. It was also discovered that species that grew in contact with buildings benefited from a temperature increase of 1.1℃∼3.4℃ due to the radiant heat released by the building. Simulation results show that the weather factors affecting the winter growth damages of evergreen broad-leaved trees were wind speed reduction and local warming due to buildings. The wind speed reduction by shielding and local warming effects by buildings have enabled the wintering of evergreen broad-leaved trees. Also, evergreen broad-leaved trees growing in the coastal area of Incheon could be judged to be gradually adapting to low temperatures in winter. This study reached the conclusion that the blockage of wind, and the proximity of buildings, are required for successfully wintering evergreen broad-leaf trees in the coastal area of Incheon. 본 연구는 인천해안지역의 난온대성 상록활엽수 겨울철 생장에 영향을 미치는 미기후 요인을 시뮬레이션 기법을 통해 도출하였다. 인천 해안지역 서구 오류동∼남동구 고잔동의 온량지수는 98.9℃·month∼109.0℃·month이었고, 1월 평균기온 —2.9℃∼—1.6℃, 최한월 최저기온 —13.9℃∼—3.6℃ 수준으로, 상록활엽수 분포기준인 온량지수 101.0℃․month∼117.0℃․month, 최한월 최저기온 —9.2℃이하로 상록활엽수가 생장하기 부적합한 지역으로 나타났다. 상록활엽수가 생장하는 공간에 도달하는 풍속의 저감정도와 가온효과에 대한 시뮬레이션을 실시한 결과, 상록활엽수 생장공간에서는 겨울 북서풍이 건축물 등에 의해 해안풍속이 8.6m/sec에서 도달풍속은 5~7m/sec로 완화되었고, 건축물 1m 이내에서는 건축물 복사에너지의 영향으로 1.1℃~3.4℃ 가량의 가온효과가 나타났다. 시뮬레이션 결과, 상록활엽수의 겨울철 생장피해에 영향을 미치는 기후요소는 풍속으로, 차폐에 의한 풍속저감과 함께 건축물에 의한 국부적 가온효과가 상록활엽수의 겨울생장이 가능한 것으로 추정되었다. 또한 인천 해안지역에 생장하고 있는 상록활엽수는 중부지방의 겨울철 저온에 점진적으로 식물이 적응하는 순화의 과정으로 판단할 수 있었고, 기온이 —18.0℃ 이하의 겨울한파에 견디는 내동능력과 바람에 의한 증발산을 견딜 수 있는 동건해(凍乾害)에 내성이 상록활엽수 겨울 생장을 좌우하는 것으로 나타났다.

현장 관측 자료를 이용한 금오산 계명대학교 동영학술림 부근의 생물기후환경 분석

김하영,박수진,김해동,Ha-Young Kim,Soo-Jin Park,Hae-Dong Kim 한국환경과학회 2023 한국환경과학회지 Vol.32 No.5

Eight years (2014-2021) of climate data were collected from an automatic weather observation system installed at the foot of Mt. Geumo in Chilgok, Gyeongbuk. Using these data, we investigated local bio-climatological indices (warmth index, WI; coldness index, CI; and effective accumulated temperature, EAT) of the mountain region adjacent to the Keimyung Dongyeong forest. The study area's WI and CI were 109.3℃ and -11.3℃ per month, respectively, averaged across 8 years. These values are indicative of an evergreen broad-leaved forest in the warm temperate climate zone, suitable for cultivating sweet persimmons and figs. Additionally, EAT in Dongyeong was 2,113.7℃, averaged across 8 years, suitable for growing crops such as corn, soybean, and potato.

한국 남부지방 난온대성 상록활엽수의 동해피해 -전라남도 광양시 중마동의 후박나무를 중심으로-

이기원 ( Lee Ki-won ),김도균 ( Kim Do-gyun ) 한국환경복원기술학회(구 한국환경복원녹화기술학회) 2017 한국환경복원기술학회지 Vol.20 No.1

This study was carried out to clarify the climatic factors of the freezing injury for the judgement on the adaptation areas of evergreen broad-leaved trees. We surveyed and analyzed the climatic factors of the freezing injury to Machilus thunbergii Siebold & Zucc. on the streets with the analyzation of planting grounds, soil conditions and the surrounding buildings. This study showed that only the minimum air temperature factor out of the other climate elements, which were the annual precipitation; the average annual temperature; the average monthly temperature of january; the average monthly minimum temperature of January; the average temperature of the coldest month; the warmth index and the coldness index, was matched up with the previous theories and reports on the freezing damages on the evergreen broad leaved trees and Machilus thunbergii Siebold & Zucc. The freezing injury of Machilus thunbergii Siebold & Zucc was occurred when the mean minimum temperature of the coldest month(TMC) in winter season fell down below-4.1℃ and the temperature fell down below -9.2℃. The freezing damage on Machilus thunbergii Siebold & Zucc surrounded by high buildings were less than those surrounded by low buildings or at non buildings.