지역별 최저주거기준 미달가구 변화 특성 분석

이창우 ( Lee Chang Woo ) 한국부동산학회 2012 不動産學報 Vol.50 No.-

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES We need to attention to minimum housing standard different by region areas with respect to housing welfare policy. The purpose of this study is to examine closely the characteristic of factor in the substandard housing of the minimum housing standard by regional areas. (2) RESEARCH METHOD For the process of this study, made the most use of the '2005 & 2010 census', classified the type of the substandard housing of the minimum housing standard by the important factor to can be analyzed. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS In the results of this survey, the most important problem is unbalance of regional. And then, classified into three large groups to the dwelling environment, examined closely the characteristic in the substandard housing of minimum housing standard by analyzing the characteristic of regional grouping. 2. RESULTS Results also implies that housing welfare policies should be implemented differently considering based on regional differences.

지역별 주택경기 순환변동에 관한 연구

김종호(Kim, Jong-Ho),정재호(Jeong, Jae-Ho) 한국부동산정책학회 2011 不動産政策硏究 Vol.12 No.2

The purpose of this study is to analyze the regional housing business cycle in the korea housing markets. We used the HP(Hodrick-Prescott) filter to analyze the regional business cycle in the housing sale markets and rental markets. The results of this study are as follows: First, as a result of the estimation of business cycles in housing markets by the HP filter, we found that the housing sales market showed 6 cycles and the average cycle was 55.8 months during 1986:1~2011:6, and the housing rents market showed 6 cycles and the average cycle was 56.4 months at the same time. Second, as a result of analyzing the housing business cycles by region, we found that 6 cycles were in Seoul, Daejeon, Ulsan, and Kwangju, 5 cycles in Incheon and Busan, and 7 cycles in Daegu. And we found that business cycles of Seoul and other metropolitan cities were similar until 2000 year, but were quitely different from those by region since 2001 year. Such findings provide important information about business forecasting and buying decision for housing buyers, and contribute to the efficient method to frame the rational housing policy. And the housing business cycle was similar to the apartment business cycle. So, the present apartment-oriented housing policies are so as not to go far. But because the difference of regional housing business cycles have been expanded since 2001, the discriminatory housing policies reflecting the regional demands are needed.

한국의 인구구조변화와 주택정책에 관한 연구

성연동(Sung, Yeon Dong) 한국부동산학회 2013 不動産學報 Vol.53 No.-

1. Contents (1) Research Objective This study is to find out the direction of the housing policy related to the effects of a changing population in korea. The baby boomer's effects to a housing market are one subject in this study. This study is focused on how will the changes of the baby boomer's growth and retirement make the effects to the housing market and what is the direction of housing policy. The second subject is a housing policy change related to increase single-person household or two-person household. (2) Research Method A series of related literatures are reviewed. This study is approached in the view of demography study, real estate study and sociocultural study (3) Research Results The baby boomer has been changed the housing market and housing policy in korea. The growth and retirement of the baby boomer change a dwelling housing size, a housing supply and a housing policy. The housing policies were been implemented and are needed new policies now. 2. Results The first, the demographic changes become to make the effects of the housing market and the housing policies in korea. The baby boomer means to be born in 1955-1963 roughly in korea. One of the generation feature is a population explosion. Their growth has needed the new house. It has changed the housing market in demand. It has changed the housing policies. The housing market has grown steeply and the price of a house has increased. These have made many kind of problems especially in the housing market and the housing policy. The baby boomer begins to retire from the company and the housing market becomes to be depressed recently. It anticipates a long slump in the housing market. We needs to cope with this problems. The new housing policy is needed now. The second, the single-person or two-person household have been increased. This mean the change of the family structure. They need one bed or two bed house and they want a rent house. The new housing policy is needed now especially with diversity and regionality.

최저주거기준 미달가구의 특성 및 지역적 차이에 관한 연구

서안나(Anna Seo),여창환(Change Hwan Yeo),김재익(Jae Ik Kim) 한국주택학회 2016 주택연구 Vol.24 No.3

본 연구에서는 최저주거기준 미달가구를 면적기준과 시설기준으로 구분하여 그들의 특성을 분석하였다. 분석을 위해 2010년 주거실태조사 자료를 사용하였으며 이항로짓모형으로 최저주거기준 미달가구의 사회경제적 특성뿐만 아니라 지역적 특성도 아울러 파악하였다. 분석결과 면적기준 최저주거기준 미달가구는 도시지역-청년층-공동주택의 문제로 요약되는 반면, 시설기준 미달가구는 농어촌지역-비청년층-단독주택의 문제로 요약되었다. 그리고 주택이외의 거처 즉, 기타거처의 거주자가 두 기준 모두 최저주거기준 미달가구가 될 확률이 가장 높게 나타났다. 본 연구는 이러한 분석결과를 바탕으로 최저주거기준 미달유형에 알맞은 정책적 대응방안이 요구되며 또한, 지역특성을 고려한 정책적 접근이 중요함을 강조하였다. In spite of the policy efforts to reduoe housing poverty, national housing poverty ratio measured by the ratio of households under sub-standard housing conditions was still high (10.6%) in 2010. This research is designed to analyze the current status of households in sub-standard national housing conditions both in terms of living area and facility standard based on the 2010 Korea Housing Survey data, and to suggest some useful housing policy implications. The characteristics of households under substandard housing condition in living area standard reveal that it is a problem of young households, renters, and non-house shelters. Consequently, it is a problem of urban area, rather than rural area. Meanwhile, the characteristics of households under substandard housing condition in facility standard demonstrate that it is a problem of old people and non-house shelters. In contrast with living area standard, it is a problem of rural area, rather than urban area. This research also proves that there exists a severe difference in type of substandard housing conditions among regions. Housing policy priority should be given differently between rural and urban areas, as well as among regions. Therefore, housing policy implementation should be led by local governments who better know local situations and conditions.

광역시 주택가격 변화의 특징과 요인 분석

한동근 국토연구원 2008 국토연구 Vol.57 No.-

This article explores the pattern of house price movements in Korean metropolitan cities during the period of mid 1980s to 2000s. The pattern is characterized by big discrepancy in increasing rates of house prices across big cities in 1980s, falling house prices at similar rates in 1990s, and heterogeneous changing rates of house prices with some cities experiencing soaring price while other cities experiencing falling price in 2000s. Regression analysis using panel data shows that real GRDP has the strongest impact on house price in respective cities, along with real GDP and real interest rates. Net inflow of population is estimated to have a positive impact whereas dishonored bill ratio has a negative impact. The result also indicates that region specific factors outweigh nation-wide macro factors in determining the regional house prices, and that trend becomes even stronger over time. This offers an explanation on the pattern of house price movements in metropolitan cities. Moreover, our study suggests that we need to introduce a region-specific housing policy.

주택정책의 지역 편향성에 관한 연구

김재익 ( Jae Ik Kim ),여창환 ( Chang Hwan Yeo ),서안나 ( Anna Seo ) 한국정책학회 2017 韓國政策學會報 Vol.26 No.2

지금까지의 주택정책은 중앙정부 주도로 이루어졌으며, 지역별 주택시장의 차별성을 고려하지 못한 면이 있어 왔다. 이러한 점에서 본 연구는 주택정책의 방향과 지역별 주택가격 추이를 연계하여 정책의 적합성과 당위성을 논의하기 위해 박근혜 정부를 포함한 최근 3개 정부의 주요 주택정책 시점과 주택매매가격 변화의 추이를 비교 분석하였다. 분석결과, 중앙정부 주도의 주택정책은 서울, 수도권의 주택시장에 초점을 둔 나머지 상대적으로 지역의 주택문제는 등한시 한 결과를 초래했다. 이러한 특정지역에 편향된 주택정책은 오히려 지역의 주택시장을 왜곡시키거나 본래 정책의 긍정적 효과와 정반대의 결과로 이어지기도 했다. 현재의 주택정책의 문제를 개선하기 위해서는 일부 지역에 편향된 중앙정부 주도의 정책수립의 문제를 탈피해야 하고 나아가 지역 주택의 문제를 대처할 수 있는 지방정부의 역할이 강조되어야 한다. In this study, housing policy of the central government is critically evaluated by showing the heterogeneousness of local housing markets. Two distinctive housing market policies, stabilization and stimulation policies, of the past three regimes are selected and analyzed. The results of this study show that the central government policies have focused on the capital region ignoring local characteristics of housing markets. This biased policies have brought about worsening effects to local markets where housing price trend is opposite to the capital region. In order to cure these problems, this study emphasizes that the national housing policy should consider the regional variation of housing market, and that the leading role of housing policy should be performed by local governments.

패널 공적분을 이용한 한국 주택가격 결정요인 분석

김영재(Young-Jae Kim),이민환(Min-Hwan Lee) 한국경제연구학회 2011 한국경제연구 Vol.29 No.4

본 연구에서는 외환위기 이후 2000년 1/4분기부터 2010년 4/4분기까지 한국주택의 매매가격과 전세가격 결정모형을 추정함에 있어 지역적 특성을 고려하기 위하여 7대 광역시 패널자료를 이용하였다. 또한 주택유형에 따른 차이를 확인하기 위해 전체 주택 및 아파트 가격을 대상으로 분석을 실시하였다. 실증분석 결과 주택가격방정식에 나타난 처분가능소득, 가계대출 규모, 주택금융 수단, 순인구유입, 실질이자율, 임대소득, 주택건축 투자, 건축비용 간 공적분 관계가 존재하는 것으로 나타났다. 주택가격에 대한 설명변수들의 영향을 살펴보면, 한국 주택에 대한 수요와 가격이 주택구입 능력, 주택금융 수단, 주택건축공사비 등에 의해 크게 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 주택 매매가격에 대하여는 처분가능소득, 임대소득, 주택건축공사비의 영향이 가장 큰 것으로 나타난 반면 순인구유입, 주택정책변수의 영향은 미미하였다. 전세가격에 대해서는 임대소득과 가계대출 규모변수의 영향이 가장 크게 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 주택시장의 기준가격이 공급자의 공급가격에 크게 의존함을 보여주는 결과이다. 한편, 주택가격에 대한 주택정책 수단의 효과는 미미하므로 규제강화를 통해 사용자 비용을 증가시키려는 주택정책은 그 효과가 제한적일 수 있음을 의미한다. 따라서 주택가격 안정을 위해서는 주택 수요자에 대한 규제정책보다는 건설사의 공급가격을 통제할 수 있는 정책이 효과적일 수 있을 것이다. In this paper we examine the determinants of Korean housing price by using quarterly data over 2000:1~2010:4. For this experimentation, we adopted panel unit root and cointegration tests to consider the seven metropolitan regions’ specific characteristics. We found that there exist long-run cointegration relations among the variables included in both sales and Jeonse prices. Secondly, the results of panel regression indicate that the main determinants of housing price are disposable income, housing finance facility, and construction cost. We also found that the scale of housing loan has positive effect on sales price, while it has negative effect on Jeonse price. Our analysis on the two types of Korean housing prices, however, shows little evidence to support the hypothesis that net inflow of population and real estate policy will be important determinants of housing prices. In addition, we confirmed that the regional specific factors are important when estimating regional housing prices. And then each determinants of housing price have different effect on sales and Jeonse prices, respectively. These results imply that although housing price is largely affected by the demand side factors, the basic housing price at the market depends mainly on the supply price by housing constructors. Also for the stable housing price, the housing policy which focusing on the control of supply price by construction firms would be prefer than that of demand control by regulation.

공공개발택지정책에 관한 연구: 안양 연현지구를 중심으로

박운선 ( Park Woon Seon ) 한국행정사학회 2020 韓國行政史學誌 Vol.50 No.-

공공택지개발사업은 공공성이 제일 큰 목표이지만 정책효과 분석은 공공성의 관점에서 발생하는 저소득층 무주택 가구의 주거비 부담완화와 주거안정성 강화 및 지역경제 활성화를 위해 필수불가결한 분석이다. 더욱이 공공택지개발 사업에서의 경제성 분석은 ‘完販되는 사업’ ‘흑자 기록의 공공사업’을 위해서는 빼놓을 수 없는 필수요소이다. 이를 소홀하게 할 경우 미분양사업 또는 적자 사업으로써 지역경제나 주민들에게 막대한 부담을 지우게 되는 것이다. 그러므로 본 연구는 안양시가 추진하는 대상지 (안양연현공공개발택지)를 중심으로 공공택지 개발 사업의 정책효과 문제를 분석코자 하였다. 안양연현공공개발택지지구는 안양시에서 추진하는 사업 중에서도 그 규모나 기대치가 매우 크기 때문에 각 종 국내외의 선행연구 사례를 상세히 검토해 보았으나 현재까지 공공택지개발의 정책효과에 관한 분석 자료는 비교적 찾아보기 힘들었다. 그 이유는 정책성 분석은 정성적 분석이므로 편익(benefit)에 대한 사전적 수치화 자체가 어려울 뿐 아니라 단체장의 짧은 임기에 비해 공기가 비교적 긴 공공사업이 정치적 풍향에 따라 즉흥적으로 추진되면서도 책임소재는 분명히 가리려 하지 않았기 때문이기도 하다. 본 연구에서 보듯 경제성분석이 다소 부정적으로 나타날 경우에도 기술성, 재무성 등에서 일부가 긍정적이고 정책성 분석에서 지역경제파급효과가 크고 지방재무건전성 완화가 이루어지는 경우라면 사업을 추진하는 예가 많았다. 안양연현 공공주택지구 조성사업도 비록 경제성 분석에서는 다소 부정적이라 해도 주민 복지나 서민들의 주거안정, 지역의 균형개발, 그리고 지역경제 활성화라는 정책효과가 크다면 긍정적으로 검토할 필요가 있다. 이 경우 결과적으로 ‘미분양’이나 ‘적자사업’을 추진했다는 책임에서 벗어날 수 있을 것이다. Public housing development projects have the greatest goal of publicity, but the analysis of policy effects is an indispensable analysis for reducing the burden of housing costs for homeless households from low-income families, reinforcing housing stability, and revitalizing the local economy from the perspective of publicity. Moreover, the analysis of economic feasibility in public housing site development projects is indispensable for ‘completely sold projects’ and ‘public projects with a record of surpluses’. If this is neglected, it is an unsold project or a deficit project, which puts a huge burden on the local economy and residents. Therefore, this study attempted to analyze the policy effect problem of the public housing site development project focusing on the target site promoted by Anyang City (Anyang Yeonhyeon Public Development Housing Site). The Anyang Yeonhyeon Public Development Housing District has a very large scale and expectation among the projects promoted by Anyang City, so we have reviewed various domestic and overseas precedent studies in detail, but until now, it has been difficult to find comparative data on the policy effects of public housing development. The reason is that since policy analysis is a qualitative analysis, it is difficult to quantify the benefits in advance, and public projects with a relatively long term compared to the short term of the head of the group are spontaneously promoted according to the political direction, but the responsibility is clearly held. It is also because He&She(the head of the group) did not try to cover it. As shown in this study, even if the economic feasibility analysis is somewhat negative, there are many cases of promoting the project if some are positive in terms of technology and finance, and the regional economic ripple effect is large in the policy analysis, and local financial soundness is eased. Although the Anyang Yeonhyeon public housing district development project is somewhat negative in the economic analysis, it is necessary to review positively if the policy effects such as welfare of residents, housing stability of the common people, balanced development of the region, and activation of the local economy are large. In this case, as a result, He & She( the head of the group) will be able to escape the responsibility of promoting “unsold” or “deficit projects”.

수도권과 지방의 주택정책의 비교연구

김진,전광섭,Kim, Jin,Jeon, Kwang-Sub 한국전자통신학회 2011 한국전자통신학회 논문지 Vol.6 No.3

본 연구는 현재 우리나라 주택정책의 문제점에 관하여 수도권과 지방으로 양분화하여 비교 연구하여 하였다. 또한 현 정부의 주택 정책에 관한 근본적인 문제점을 분석하여 수도권과 지방간의 수급상황을 고려한 차별화된 부동산 정책을 수립하여야 한다는 정책적 대안을 모색하였다. This study is a comprehensive analysis of housing policy for our country, that is divided into the capital area and several regions. Also discussed, are ways to establish more new housing policies, which are based on this government's housing policy.

주거복지정책 지방화의 가능성과 한계 : 광역지방자치단체의 특화사업을 중심으로

이후빈(Hoobin Lee),박미선(Miseon Park),조정희(Junghee Cho) 한국주택학회 2020 주택연구 Vol.28 No.4

본 논문은 주거복지정책 지방화 현황분석에 기초해서 지방화의 가능성과 한계를 탐색한다. 지금까지 사무 이양을 통해 주거복지정책의 주체를 중앙정부에서 지방정부로 전환해야 한다는 주장이 계속 제기되었지만, 지방화 현황에 대한 평가는 지역별 주거복지 실태조사를 통해 간접적으로 이루어졌다. 위로부터의 구조적 재편이 있어야만 비로소 지방화가 시작되는 것은 아니다. 지방정부는 현재의 중앙정부 주도 정책구조에서도 제한적이지만 지역맞춤형 주거복지정책을 수립하고 집행하고 있다. 이와 같은 아래로부터의 자발적 노력을 촉진하기 위해서는 먼저 이런 노력이 얼마나 어떻게 이루어지고 있는지를 파악해야 한다. 광역지방자치단체는 지역의 고유한 주거문제를 인식하고 나름의 정책역량을 동원해서 지역추가형과 지역고유형 특화사업을 운영하고 있다. 특히 주거문제 압력이 높은 서울과 경기에서 지방정부의 정책적 대응이 부각된다. 하지만 지방정부가 중앙전달형에서 벗어나서 지역맞춤형 주거복지정책을 펼치는데 재량과 재원 측면에서 일정한 한계가 존재한다. This paper explores the possibilities and limitations of localization in housing policy based on the analysis of local housing programs. Until recently, it has been accepted that the key player of housing policy should be changed from central government to local one. Significant role has been played by the central government in Korea from planning, guideline setting, execution, regulation, allocation of resources, and monitoring. On the contrary, many local governments have not enough rooms to play in addressing local housing needs since they are more likely to lack resources, information, and/or will power. However, with limited resources, several local governments devise creative programs to tackle local housing needs. We categorize local housing programs into three groups and analyze the characteristics of each group. Customized local housing programs are identified in areas of urgent housing needs such as Seoul Metropolitan Areas. The results show that creating unique and customized housing programs from local governments require flexibility and discretion of programs with financial capability.