지역별 분야별 지방재정지출과 지역경제 성장과의 인과관계 분석

이창근 한국지방재정학회 2019 한국지방재정논집 Vol.24 No.3

The purpose of this study is to verify the causality between local government expenditure by sector and the regional economic growth. As the analyzed results, the Wagner hypothesis as well as the Keynesian model were mostly established in the causality between local government expenditure by sector and the regional economic growth, except for the causality between the economic development expenditure and the regional economic growth in Seoul Metropolitan regions. Through the verification of the casuality between local government expenditure by sector and the regional economic growth, it was confirmed that the impact of local government expenditure by sector on the regional economic growth differs by region. For example, in Seoul Metropolitan regions the role of social development expenditure was more important among local government expenditure by sector. In other non-Seoul Metropolitan regions, the role of general administration expenditure and economic development expenditure were necessary for the regional economic growth. For the low income regions, the role of social development expenditure was the most important to achieve the regional economic growth in the Keynesian model. However, the regional economic growth led to the increasement of the social development and the economic development expenditures in the Wagner hypothesis. Ultimately, in the low-income and the other non-Seoul Metropolitan regions where private capital accumulation has been lacking, the regional income growth as well as the social development and general administration expenditures for the regional economic growth were needed. Particularly, the regional income growth would lead to the increased local government revenue, which would induce the economic development expenditure. This is a virtuous cycle of economic feedback covering the Keynesian model and the Wagner hypothesis. 본 연구의 목적은 우리나라 지역별로 분야별 지방재정지출과 지역경제 성장과의 인과관계를 검증하는 것이다. 분석 결과, 우리나라의 분야별 지방재정지출과 지역경제 성장 간의 인과관계에서 수도권 지역의 경제개발비와 지역내총생산 간의 관계를 제외하면 대체로 케인즈 모형 뿐 아니라 바그너 가설도 함께 성립하였다. 또한 지역별로 분야별 지방재정지출과 지역경제 성장과의 인과관계 검증을 통해 지역경제 성장에 있어서 지방재정의 분야별 세출의 영향이 지역에 따라 다르게 나타난다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 가령 수도권 지역의 경우 지역경제 성장에 있어서 분야별 지방재정지출 가운데 사회개발비의 역할이 보다 중요하였다. 기타 비수도권 지역은 지역경제성장을 위해 무엇보다도 공공행정비와 경제개발비의 역할이 필요하였다. 저소득 지역의 경우 케인즈 모형에서는 지역소득 증대에 있어서 사회개발비의 역할이 가장 중요하였으나, 바그너 가설에서는 지역경제 성장이 사회개발비 뿐 아니라 경제개발비 증대로 이어졌다. 궁극적으로 민간의 자본 축적 등이 부족한 저소득 지역 및 기타 비수도권 지역의 경우 지역경제 성장을 위한 사회개발비나 공공행정비의 역할 외에도 지역소득 증가가 세수 증대를 통한 경제개발비 지출 확대로 이어지는 경제의 선순환 피드백 효과 구축이 보다 적극적으로 필요하다.

시ㆍ군ㆍ구의 사회개발비가 지역내총생산에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증분석

이영성 한국지역학회 2009 지역연구 Vol.25 No.3

Since the late 1990s, the rapid increase in Social Development Expenditure is the most distinguished change in local public finance in Korea. But few research explained economic impacts of such a change at municipal level like City(市), Gun(郡), and Gu(區). According to this research using data from 2001 to 2005, economic impact of Social Development Expenditure was positive and larger than those of Economic Development Expenditure and General Administration Expenditure. Furthermore, Social Development Expenditure's effect was larger at municipalities suffering from lower economic growth rates, where welfare expenditure for low-income households and improvements in basic living conditions through Social Development Expenditure can be interpreted as desirable for economic growth. It is not clear whether municipalities has increased Social Development Expenditure recognizing such a effect. But the rapid increase in Social Development Expenditure has made, as a result, possible a long-term adjustment toward a more desirable resource allocation. 사회개발비가 1990년대 후반부터 빠르게 늘어난 것은 우리나라 지방정부의 재정지출에서 나타난 가장 두드러진 변화이지만, 시・군・구 차원에서 사회개발비가 지역경제에 미치는 영향을 규명한 연구는 드물다. 이 연구는 지역내총생산 자료를 구할 수 있는 강원도, 경기도, 경상남도, 경상북도, 대전광역시 시・군・구의 2001년부터 2005년까지 자료를 이용하여 그 영향을 규명하였다. 지역내총생산에 미치는 영향은 탄력성 측면에서는 사회개발비가 경제개발비나 일반행정비보다 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 승수효과도 사회개발비가 경제개발비보다 더 컸다. 사회개발비의 효과는 경제성장율이 낮은 곳에서 더 크게 나타났다. 사회개발비로 기초적인 생활환경을 좋게 하고, 소외계층의 복지를 배려하면, 저성장 지역의 경제성장율을 높이는 데 도움이 된다고 풀이할 수 있다. 이러한 효과를 시ㆍ군ㆍ구 지방정부가 인식하고 사회개발비의 비중을 늘려온 것인지는 분명하지 않다. 그러나 사회개발비의 비중이 빠르게 늘어난 것은 결과적으로 더욱 바람직한 자원배분을 가능하게 하는 바람직한 조정이었다고 할 수 있다.

지방재정지출이 지역의 경제성장, 고용 및 투자에 미치는 영향 분석

문시진(Moon Sijin),이기동(Lee Ki-Dong),이우형(Lee Woohyung) 한국경제통상학회 2016 경제연구 Vol.34 No.2

본 논문은 우리나라 1985~2013년의 기간 동안 16개 시도별 지방재정지출이 지역 경제에 미치는 영향을 실증분석 한다. 이를 위해 지방정부의 경제개발비와 사회개발비 지출과 지역의 경제성장, 고용 및 투자 간에 각각의 모형을 구축하고 재정지출의 장⋅단기 효과를 추정한다. 실증분석을 통해서 경제개발비 지출이 단기적으로 실업률을 감소시키는 한편, 민간투자를 구인하며 지역경제 성장에 긍정적 요인임을 확인할 수 있다. 사회개발비의 경우 경제개발비와 마찬가지로 일시적으로 실업률을 감소시킬 수는 있으나, 장기적으로는 고용창출에 효과적이지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 또한 민간투자를 구축하는 것으로 나타나고 장기적으로 지역내 산출을 증 가시키기 어려운 것으로 확인된다. 따라서 복지서비스 및 소득보조 등에 투입되는 사회개발비 지출이 지속적 경제성장에 긍정적 영향을 미칠 수 있도록 복지혜택 및 서비스 지급방식에 새로운 전환이 필요하겠다. 또한 경제개발 관련 지출의 경우 지역의 고용 및 투자를 활성화시키는데 필수적 요인이 되므로, 복지 관련 수요의 급증으로 그 비중이 점차 줄어들고 있는 경제개발 부문에도 적정규모의 예산배분이 이루어져야 할 것으로 보인다. This paper estimates the effect of local governments’ fiscal expenditure on regional economy for 16 regions in the period 1985~2010. We analyze each model on regional economic growth, employment and investment to estimate the short- and long-run effects of local fiscal expenditures for social welfare development and economic development. It is found that because the economic development expenditure reduces unemployment rates in the short run and attracts the private investment in the industry, it generates positive effects on regional economic growth. On the other hand, although social development expenditure decreases unemployment rates temporarily, it is not effective in creating employment in the long term. Furthermore, it crowds out private investment and does not increase gross regional domestic product. These results imply the distribution system of welfare benefits and services should be changed in a way that the social development expenditure has the positive effects on regional economic growth consistently. In addition, considering that the economic development expenditure is an essential factor to boost region’s employment and investment, more allocation of government spending for the economic development is required in spite of growing demand for welfare service.

도·농 통합시의 사회개발비가 지역경제에 미치는 영향

김종섭(Kim, Jong-Sup) 강원대학교 사회과학연구원 2014 사회과학연구 Vol.53 No.2

한국의 경우 90년대 후반부터 지방재정지출 중 사회개발비의 증가추세가 급속하게 나타났다. 이런 변화와 함께 지방재정지출과 지역경제간의 관계에 대한 연구가 비교적 활발하게 이루어져 오고 있으나 통합시를 대상으로 한 연구는 없는 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구는 강원도에서 시·군 통합이 이루어진 춘천시, 원주시, 강릉시, 삼척시 등 4개 통합시를 대상으로 1980년부터 2012년까지 횡단면과 시계열 자료를 이용하여 사회개발비 지출이 지역경제에 미치는 영향을 파악하였다. 표면무관회귀분석(SUR)에 의한 추정결과, 통합시에서 지역총생산에 미치는 영향은 탄력성측면에서 사회개발비가 경제개발비나 일반행정비 보다 훨씬 컸으며 정의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 사회개발비의 효과를 지역별로 보면 불리한 경제적 환경에 직면하고 있는 영동지역이 영서지역보다 약간 큰 것으로 나타났다. 사회개발비의 비중이 빠르게 증가하는 것은 통합시의 자원배분을 바람직한 방향으로 조정할 수 있음을 의미하기 때문에 사회개발비는 지역경제 성장을 위하여 중요한 투자적 경비임을 알 수 있었다. It obviously showed that Social Development Expenditure in local public finance of Korea had increased since the late 1990s. But few research explained the economic impacts of such a change at basic administrative unit like Urban-Rural Integration City(i.e. City-County Consolidation). This paper analyzes the impact of Social Development Expenditure on regional economic growth using cross section data and time series data of urban-rural integration cities in Gangwon-Province during 1980-2012. As a result, it was found that Social Development Expenditure of Urban-Rural Integration City tends to have statistically positive impacts on the regional economy, and larger than Economic Development Expenditure and General Administration Expenditure. Furthermore, the degree of impact of Social Development Expenditure was that Yeongseo Urban-Rural Integration City is slightly smaller than those of Yeongdong area facing unfavorable economic environmental. The rapid increase of Social Development Expenditure has made, as a result, possible a long-time adjustment toward a more desirable resource allocation. Therefore, it certified that Social Development Expenditure is an important investment expenditure for the economic growth of Urban-Rural Integration City.

지방정부의 비교경쟁에 따른 재정지출변화가 경제성장에 미치는 영향 - 사회개발비를 중심으로 -

이영성,김용욱,박준영 한국지역학회 2014 지역연구 Vol.30 No.3

One of the most interesting phenomena, after decentralization in South Korea since the early 1990s, is the existence of interdependences between neighboring local governments with regards to their public spending. There are, however, little literature that identified whether such interdependences in public spending facilitate the efficiency of resource allocation and economic development. This paper investigates the impact of local ‘Social Development Expenditure’ caused by yardstick competition among neighboring jurisdictions on GRDP (Gross Regional Domestic Product) in South Korea. We find that Social Development Expenditure, as a whole, affects positively GRDP. It can be said that decentralization in South Korea has improved in terms of responsiveness to local demands and economic efficiency in public service provision. Considering the other finding that the effect of Social Development Expenditure influenced by yardstick competition negative to GRDP or insignificant, however, such improvement is still not enough to lead yardstick competition among local governments to efficient resource allocation and regional economic development. Future works are needed to investigate how yardstick competition in South Korea creates inefficiency and how such inefficiency can be corrected. 1990년대 초반에 지방자치를 도입한 우리나라에서 최근 나타난 흥미로운 현상 하나는 비교경쟁(yardstick competition)에 의해 이웃한 지방정부들의 정책이 비슷해지는 동조화이다. 본 연구는 지방정부의 사회개발비에서 이웃 지방정부와의 비교경쟁에 의해 동조화된 부분을 추출한 뒤, 이를 지역내총생산에 관한 회귀방정식에 독립변수로 포함하여, 지역내총생산에 미치는 효과를 추정하였다. 그 결과 사회개발비 총액은 경제개발비보다 지역내총생산에 더 긍정적이었지만, 사회개발비 가운데 비교경쟁에 의해 동조화된 부분은 오히려 지역내총생산에 부정적이거나 유의하지 않았다. 지방자치 이후 사회개발비의 증가는 전반적으로 자원배분의 효율성을 향상시켰지만, 비교경쟁이 효율성 향상으로 연결될 수 있을 만큼 우리나라의 지방자치가 충분하게 성숙되지는 못했다는 것을 뜻한다. 앞으로 비교경쟁이 자원배분의 효율성으로 연결되지 못하는 구체적인 이유와 기제(mechanism)를 밝힌다면 우리나라 지방자치를 더 발전시키는 데 도움이 될 것이다.

How Does Medical Expenditure Affect Economic Development? Evidence from OECD countries

Kim Do Yeon,Jung Hong Joo,Kim Bo hyun 국제금융소비자학회 2019 The International Review of Financial Consumers(IR Vol.4 No.1

This study views medical expenditure as an enhancement factor to human capital and, as such, medical expenditure and national healthcare system can have a positive impact on economic development. Using a non-balanced panel data of 26 OECD countries during the period of 1980 and 2008, we find that, as expected, the level of medical expenditure has a positive effect on economic development. In particular, total medical expenditure, public health expenditure and current health expenditure all show a positive effect while cost of capital for forming health care system has a negative impact on economic growth. No statistically significant effect of private health insurance expenditure is found. The effect of national healthcare system is also examined. Both National Health Service and National Health Insurance groups indicate a positive effect on economic progress with respect to total medical expenditure and public health expenditure. On the other hand, current health expenditure and private health insurance expenditure positively affect the National Health Insurance countries but negatively affect the National Health Service countries.

Government Education Expenditure and Economic Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam

Minh Phuoc LE,Trang Mai TRAN 한국유통과학회 2021 The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Busine Vol.8 No.7

Government expenditure on education has attracted much attention because it plays an important role in the economic development. The question is whether government expenditure on education has a positive or negative impact on the economic growth and vice versa. This study aims to provide reliable estimates of the relationship between government expenditure on education and economic growth with empirical evidence in Vietnam for the period 2006–2019. The data was taken from the official statistics of the General Statistics Office of Vietnam. The authors have used the VAR model and Granger causal model to determine the relationship between government expenditure on education and the economic growth. Research results show that there is a two-way nexus between the economic growth and government spending on education with a lag of about two years. From the results obtained from this research, the authors have made some policy suggestions for the Vietnamese government as how to increase investment for education. If there is a one-way causal relationship between expenditure on education and the economic growth, the government can use spending as a growth factor. However, if there is a bi-directional relationship between the government expenditure on education and the GDP growth, the government needs to ensure that resources are appropriately managed and allocated effectively to promote growth.

Education Policy and Industrial Development: The Cases of Korea and Mexico

김종섭,Hong, Min-Kyung 서울대학교 국제학연구소 2010 Journal of International and Area Studies Vol.17 No.2

After many scholars’ studies, it has been suggested that among several facts of economic growth, Korea’s relatively intensive investment in education could make its fast economic growth. This study is started from the question of whether only the size of education expenditure could lead economic growth. Here we compare two countries - Korea and Mexico, to see how the education expenditure positively leads economic growth. The study proved that by analyzing the effect of education expenditure on each industrial development stage of two countries by using the time series data from 1960s to 2000s. In the case of Korea, the education sector supplied adequate workers that were required in each development stage, whereas in Mexico, the allocation of education expenditure was in a mismatch with the labor demand for industrial structure. The conclusion of this study is derived as not only the size of the education expenditure but also its efficient use in accordance with the industrial policy is important to guarantee the positive effects of education on economic growth.

The Research on the Relationship of Financial Expenditure, Real Estate Development and Economic Growth—An Empirical Study of Fujian Province

Yihua Zhang,Yuan Wang,Jiao Li,Baoxi Cai 보안공학연구지원센터 2015 International Journal of u- and e- Service, Scienc Vol.8 No.10

With Fujian Province as object of study, panel data from 1980 to 2013 is selected in this paper. Besides, VAR model is established. Co-integration test, Granger causality, impulse response function and variance decomposition are used for quantitative analysis on correlation between real estate development, financial expenditure and economic growth in Fujian Province. The research results show that long-term stable balance among real estate development, financial expenditure and economic growth in Fujian Province. Real estate development and financial expenditure are the Granger factors driving the growth of economic growth. Financial expenditure is the Granger reason for real estate development’s development. On this basis, the author proposes some policies and recommendations for macroeconomic regulation and control in Fujian Province.

Spillovers of Education and Job Training in Bringing Sustainable Economic Development in Pakistan: The Role of Research and Development Revisited

Sara AMIN,Malka LIAQAT,Noreen SAFDAR,Sidra IQBAL 한국유통과학회 2022 The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Busine Vol.9 No.5

Current research intended to measure the spillovers of education and on-the-job training to enhance sustainable economic development. Consideration of research and development expenditures for on-the-job training expands the impact of education and, thus, may provide spillovers for Pakistan’s economic growth. The primary focus of this research is to look at the combined impact of education and research and development spending as value-added variables for sustainable growth. The econometric study uses data from a variety of sources, including the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the Pakistan Economic Survey, and world development indices. The secondary annual time series data from 1976 to 2019 are analyzed. To adequately estimate the empirical model, ARDL has been used while the presence of the unit root has been tested using the ADF test. The findings show that education, research, and development all contribute to all-inclusive, sustainable economic growth. Labor and capital, among other traditional components, continue to be the backbone of the development process. Still, the spillover effect is much enhanced with the expansion in education and the on-job training in the form of research and development expenditures. Consequently, the introduction of research and development in education will lead to a sustainable and inclusive economy.