임금과 일자리 기회의 코호트 간 차이에 관한 연구

정준호,전병유,장지연 한국사회과학연구회 2021 동향과 전망 Vol.- No.112

The purpose of this study is to empirically verify the effect of generation( birth cohort) on the gap and inequality in wages and jobs. Using wage data for the past 30 years, it was analyzed whether the independent cohort effect (gap between cohorts), which is distinguished from the age and period effect in wages and jobs, exists significantly. The main methodology used in this paper is Chauvel's (2013) APCD (Age-Period-Cohort Detrended), which estimates the degree of deviation from the trend as an independent effect of the cohort (age, period). As a result of the analysis, the more recent cohorts, the higher the absolute wage level, but in the effect of more than the trend, that is, the relative cohort effect were found to be larger in the cohorts in the 1960s, and lower in the 1970s cohort. The advantage of the 1950s cohort was the effect of economic growth, and the advantage of he 1950s cohort was due to the expansion of educational opportunities, while the disadvantage of the cohort in the 1970s was attributed to the period effects of the 1997 financial crisis and the structural effects of the labor market dualization. The 1959-63 cohort was also found to be advantageous in the opportunities to occupy the top 20% of jobs. However, when education was controlled, the 1954-58 cohort was advantageous, and the 1970s cohort was unfavorable. Even in the top jobs, the 1959-68 cohort is believed to be the beneficiary of expanding educational opportunities. However, in lower-ranking jobs, the difference between the cohort in the 1960s and the cohort in the 1970s was not as large as the difference in the higher-level jobs. In the APCD analysis of the wage inequality index, it was found that inequality was the lowest in the 1959-63 cohort, while the inequality was high in the cohort after the 1970s. 본 연구의 목적은 임금과 일자리에서의 격차와 불평등에서 세대(출생 코호트) 효과를 실증적으로 검증해보는 것이다. 지난 30여년 간의 임금 자료를 활용하여, 임금과 일자리에서 연령과 시기 효과와 구분되는 독자적인 코호트 효과(코호트 간격차)가 유의미하게 존재하는지를 분석하였다. 방법론은 추세에서의 이탈 정도를코호트(연령, 시기)의 독자적인 효과로 추정하는 쇼벨(Chauvel, 2013)의APCD(Age-Period-Cohort Detrended) 방법론을 활용하였다. 분석 결과, 최근코호트일수록, 절대 임금 수준은 높지만, 추세 이상의 효과 즉 상대적 코호트 효과가 1960년대 출생 코호트에서 가장 큰 것으로 나타났고 1970년대 출생 코호트에서 상대적으로 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 1950년대 코호트의 상대적 유리함은 경제성장의 효과가, 1960년대 코호트의 상대적 유리함은 교육 기회 확대에 기인한다면, 1970년대 코호트의 상대적 불리함은 외환위기 이후의 시기 효과와 노동시장의 구조적 효과가 작용한 것으로 판단된다. 임금 수준 기준의 상위 20% 일자리 점유 기회에서도, 1959-1663년 출생 코호트가 유리한 것으로 나타났다. 다만 교육을 통제할 경우 1954-1958년 출생 코호트가 유리한 것으로, 1970년대 출생 코호트는 불리한 것으로 나타났다. 상위 일자리 점유 기회에서도 1959-1968년 출생 코호트는 교육 기회 확대의 수혜자인 것으로 판단된다. 다만, 하위 일자리에서는 1960년대 코호트와 1970년대 코호트 사이의 차이가 상위 일자리 점유 기회에서의 차이만큼 크지는 않았다. 임금 불평등 지수에 대한 APCD 분석에서는, 1959-1963년 출생 코호트에서 코호트 내 불평등 정도가 가장 낮은 반면, 1970 년대 이후 코호트에서 코호트 내 불평등 정도가 높은 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Healthy Lifestyle Behaviors Using the National Health and Nutrition Survey in Japan

Okui Tasuku 대한예방의학회 2020 Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health Vol.53 No.6

Objectives: This study conducted an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of trends in healthy lifestyle behaviors in Japan. Methods: We used National Health and Nutrition Survey data on salt intake and prevalence of smoking, drinking, and physical activity between 1995 and 2018 in Japan. Age groups were defined from 20 years to 69 years old in 10-year increments. Cohorts were defined for each age group of each year with a 1-year shift, and cohorts born in 1926-1935 (first cohort) until 1989-1998 (last cohort) were examined. We conducted a Bayesian APC analysis, calculating estimated values for each behavior by age group, period, and cohort. Results: Estimated salt intake decreased from cohorts born in the 1930s to the 1960s, but increased thereafter in both genders, and the magnitude of increase was larger for men. Estimated smoking prevalence increased in the cohorts starting from the 1930s for men and the 1940s for women, and then decreased starting in the cohorts born in the 1970s for both genders. Although estimated drinking prevalence decreased starting in the cohorts born in approximately 1960 for men, for women it increased until the cohorts born in approximately 1970. Estimated physical activity prevalence decreased starting in the cohorts born in the 1940s in both genders, but the magnitude of decrease was larger for women. Conclusions: Trends in cohort effects differed by gender, which might be related to changes in the social environment for women. Improvements in dietary and exercise habits are required in more recently born cohorts of both genders.

우리나라 가계저축에 대한 코호트분석

윤종인 ( Jong In Yoon ) 한국재정학회(구 한국재정공공경제학회) 2016 재정학연구 Vol.9 No.3

본 연구는 연령효과, 코호트효과, 시간효과에 초점을 맞추어 최근 25년 동안 우리나라 가계저축률을 분석하였다. 이를 위하여 가계동향조사의 미시자료를 이용하였고 기본방법론으로 코호트분석을 적용하였다. 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째 소득의 연령별 프로파일은 낙타등모양이었고, 저축률의 연령별 프로파일은 M자형이었다. 저축률의 M자형 프로파일은 부양비, 특히 40대에 집중되었던 교육비 때문이었던 것으로 보인다. 둘째 1955~1975년생의 소득은 이전 세대보다 많은 편이었지만 1976년생 이후 세대의 소득은 비슷하였다. 한편 1940~1964년생의 저축률은 높은 것으로 나타났지만 1965년생 이후 세대의 저축률은 높지 않았다. 셋째 시간효과를 보면, 1991~1994년의 저축률은 높았지만 1997년 이후의 저축률은 낮았다. 따라서 최근 25년간의 저축률 하락은 외환위기 이후 모든 코호트에서 나타난 저축률 하락과 1965년생 이후 세대의 저축률 하락이라는 두 가지 현상이 작용한 결과로 판단된다. This research is to review basic facts on Korean saving rate in the recent twenty five years, and analyze the determining factors behind its trend. We use the micro-data(MDSS) from Household Income and Expenditure Survey from 1990 to 2014 and apply the cohort analysis of Deaton(1985). We tries to characterize the life-cycle pattern of household income, consumption, and saving on a cohort-by-cohort basis. To test the existence of cohort effect and time effect, we test the cohort effect and regress saving/consumption on several variables. Evidences say some results. First, age-profiles of income and consumption had similarly hump-shaped. and income and consumption reached their peak at an earlier path of their lifetime, compared with those of the seniors. Second, age-profiles of saving rates of all cohorts were M-shaped and shifted to the left during the sample period. The dependency ratio was an important factor in determining saving, but the M-shaped age-profiles of saving rates can be explained mainly by large education expenditures during 40s. Third, cohort effect and time effect were all important. Saving rates of cohorts born in 1940~1974 were higher than those of cohorts born before 1940, but saving rates of cohorts born after 1975 were not. And saving rates of all cohorts in 1991~1997 were higher than those of all cohorts after 1998. So we conclude that decreases in saving rates in the recent twenty five years are a mixed phenomenon of a universal downward change across all cohorts and downward changes of younger generations.

Cancer Incidence in Asbestos-Exposed Workers: An Update on Four Finnish Cohorts

Pia Nynäs,Eero Pukkala,Harri Vainio,Panu Oksa 한국산업안전보건공단 산업안전보건연구원 2017 Safety and health at work Vol.8 No.2

Background We assessed the cancer risks of four different Finnish asbestos-exposed cohorts. We also explored if the cohorts with varying profiles of asbestos exposure exhibited varying relative risks of cancer. Methods The incident cancer cases for the asbestos-exposed worker cohorts were updated to the end of 2012 using the files of the Finnish Cancer Registry. The previously formed cohorts consisted of asbestos mine workers, asbestosis patients, asbestos sprayers, and workers who had taken part in a screening study based on asbestos exposure at work. Results The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for mesothelioma varied from about threefold to > 100-fold in the different cohorts. In the screening cohort the SIR for mesothelioma was highest in 2003–2007, In other cohorts it was more constant in 5-year period inspection. The SIR for lung cancer was about twofold to tenfold in all except the screening cohort. Asbestos sprayers were at the highest risk of mesothelioma and lung cancer. Conclusion The SIR for mesothelioma is high in all of the cohorts that represent different kinds of asbestos exposure. The smaller SIR for mesothelioma in the screening cohort with lowest level of asbestos exposure might suggest dose-responsiveness between asbestos exposure and mesothelioma. It does seem that the highest risk of lung cancer in these cohorts except in the youngest of the cohorts, the screening cohort, is over. The highest SIR for lung cancer of the asbestosis patient and sprayers cohort is explained by their heavy asbestos exposure.

Cancer Incidence in Asbestos-Exposed Workers: An Update on Four Finnish Cohorts

Nynas, Pia,Pukkala, Eero,Vainio, Harri,Oksa, Panu Occupational Safety and Health Research Institute 2017 Safety and health at work Vol.8 No.2

Background: We assessed the cancer risks of four different Finnish asbestos-exposed cohorts. We also explored if the cohorts with varying profiles of asbestos exposure exhibited varying relative risks of cancer. Methods: The incident cancer cases for the asbestos-exposed worker cohorts were updated to the end of 2012 using the files of the Finnish Cancer Registry. The previously formed cohorts consisted of asbestos mine workers, asbestosis patients, asbestos sprayers, and workers who had taken part in a screening study based on asbestos exposure at work. Results: The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for mesothelioma varied from about threefold to > 100-fold in the different cohorts. In the screening cohort the SIR for mesothelioma was highest in 2003-2007, In other cohorts it was more constant in 5-year period inspection. The SIR for lung cancer was about twofold to tenfold in all except the screening cohort. Asbestos sprayers were at the highest risk of mesothelioma and lung cancer. Conclusion: The SIR for mesothelioma is high in all of the cohorts that represent different kinds of asbestos exposure. The smaller SIR for mesothelioma in the screening cohort with lowest level of asbestos exposure might suggest dose-responsiveness between asbestos exposure and mesothelioma. It does seem that the highest risk of lung cancer in these cohorts except in the youngest of the cohorts, the screening cohort, is over. The highest SIR for lung cancer of the asbestosis patient and sprayers cohort is explained by their heavy asbestos exposure.

노인가구의 코호트별 다차원빈곤 분석

김순미 ( Kim Soon-mi ),조경진 ( Cho Kyung-jin ) 대한가정학회 2019 Human Ecology Research(HER) Vol.57 No.1

This study analyzed the poverty rate by poverty dimension, correlation between multidimensional poverty, variables that affected the number of poverty dimension and the probability of the poor or not. The sample consisted of 6,361 elderly households (1,561 baby boom birth cohort, 1,793 post-liberation birth cohort, 3,007 Japanese colonial period birth cohort) taken from the 12^th Korean Welfare Panel Study. First, the highest poverty rate among the baby boom birth cohort was 62.8% of employment poverty. The highest rate among the post-liberation birth cohort and Japanese colonial period birth cohort, was 82.5%, 92.3% of health poverty, respectively. Second, the highest coefficient in the baby boom birth cohort was .354 for asset poverty and relation poverty. In the remaining two cohorts, the coefficient for asset poverty and relation poverty was the highest at .268, .284, respectively. Third, the average number of poverty dimensions was 2.318 of the baby boom birth cohort, 2.921 of the post-liberation birth cohort, 3.564 of the poverty in the Japanese colonial period birth cohort. Also, the poverty rate for each cohort was 20.179%, 28.779%, and 50.083%, respectively. Fourth, the significant variables in all cohorts were gender, education, marital status, residence, and equalized ordinary income for the multiple regression analysis on the number of poverty dimensions. Additionally, age of the post-liberation birth cohort was significant, age and family numbers of the Japanese colonial period birth cohort were significant. Significant variables in logistic analysis on the probability of poverty or not were the same as those of regression analysis.

현재 노인과 미래 노인의 불평등 추이에 관한 연구: 코호트별 소득과 자산을 중심으로

최승훈(Seunghoon Choi),민수빈(Subin Min),이예인(Yein Lee) 한국사회정책학회 2020 한국사회정책 Vol.27 No.3

본 논문은 노인에 대해 접근하는 현 시대의 획일화된 방식에 대해 비판하고, 노인의 다양성과 코호트 간 이질성을 바탕으로 현재 및 미래 노인을 출생년도에 따라 세 코호트로 구분해 이들의 소득과 자산 불평등 추이를 살펴보았다. 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 1999년 금융위기 이후 조사대상의 소득 및 자산 점유율과 10분위분배율 분석 결과 베이비붐 이전 두 세대에서는 중간계층(5-8분위)의 점유율이 감소하는 추세를 보였으며, 특히 일제강점기 세대의 분배율은 다른 두 세대에 비해 더욱 악화된 것으로 나타났다. 반면 베이비붐 세대는 전체적인 분배율이 양호한 형태를 취해 코호트 간 결과의 차이를 나타냈다. 둘째, 지니계수를 활용한 소득불평등 탐색 결과 베이비붐 세대는 노년기에 진입할수록 불평등의 개선을 보였으나 이전 두 코호트에서 누적불평등 현상이 나타났으며, 특히 일제강점기 세대의 가구소득 불평등이 가장 높게 나타났다. 셋째, 앳킨슨 지수를 활용한 소득 및 자산 불평등 탐색 결과 베이비붐 이전 세대 모두 불평등에 대한 정적인 연령효과가 나타나 누적적인 불평등이 존재한다는 사실이 확인됐다. 특히 자산 불평등 수준의 경우 모든 코호트에서 소득 불평등 수준보다 현저히 높은 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 분석 결과, 세대 간 불평등의 양상과 수준이 상이한 것으로 나타나 노인 코호트 각각에 표적화된 정책을 설계하는 노력이 필요할 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구는 노인집단을 코호트로 구분하여 불평등 추이를 분석하여 개별 코호트의 특성을 도출하였으며, 이들에 대한 각각의 정책적 접근을 모색하였다는 데에 의의가 있다. Based on the criticism of the uniform view of the elderly, this study analyzed the inequality trend of income and assets by dividing the elderly group into three cohorts based on heterogeneity between them. The results are as follows. First, as a result of analyzing the income, assets share, and decile dispersion ratio after the financial crisis in 1999, the share of the middle class of the pre-liberation and post-liberation birth cohort have decreased. In particular, the decile dispersion ratio of the pre-liberation birth cohort tended to be worse than that of the other cohorts. On the other hand, the baby boom birth cohort showed a favorable dispersion ratio overall, indicating a difference in results between cohorts. Second, as a result of the Gini coefficient, the baby boom birth cohort showed an improvement in inequality as they entered old age, but cumulative inequality was observed in the other cohorts. Especially, the income inequality of the pre-liberation birth cohort was the highest. Third, as a result of Atkinson Index, except for the baby-boom birth cohort, it was confirmed that there was cumulative inequality due to the age effect. In particular, the level of asset inequality was significantly higher than income inequality in all cohorts. The result of this study shows that the aspects and degrees of inequality between elderly cohorts are different. Based on these results this study insists that efforts to design targeted policies for each elderly cohort are needed, and also suggests seeking effective income security policies for the elderly and sustainable elderly welfare policies. This study has significance in that the elderly cohort was subdivided to analyze inequality trends and to derive characteristics of individual groups.

Effects of flood disturbance on the cohort structure of the riverine mayfly Ephemera orientalis (Ephemeroptera: Ephemeridae) in the Han River in Seoul, Korea

석상우,백민정,황정미,박성환,배연재 한국곤충학회 2019 Entomological Research Vol.49 No.3

The aim of the present study was to investigate the adaptation of coexisting Ephemera orientalis (Ephemeroptera: Ephemeridae) cohorts to flood timing. Larvae were collected from the Han River (Seoul, Korea) from 2012 to 2014, and their life history was assessed by measuring head capsule width and by comparing the emergence period of the insects in relation with the flood season. Two slowgrowing cohorts (S1 and S2) and one fast-growing cohort (F) were identified. The S1 cohort was found to hatch in June or July and to emerge the following summer. Whereas, the S2 cohort was found to hatch in August or September and emerge the following August. Early-hatching larvae from the S1 cohort became the F cohort through the process of cohort splitting and subsequently merged with the S2 cohort. The F cohort, however, was not observed when huge floods occurred or under low temperature conditions. Furthermore, floods that resulted from>80mmprecipitation significantly reduced larval abundance; therefore, flooding affects cohorts both directly and indirectly. Most cohorts emerged before and after the flood season (July 10 to August 10). The results of the present study indicate that the emergence period of E. orientalis has evolved to avoid the flood season.

The Korea Cohort Consortium: The Future of Pooling Cohort Studies

Sang-Jun Lee,Kwang-Pil Ko,Jung Eun Lee,Inah Kim,Sun Ha Jee,Aesun Shin,Sun-Seog Kweon,Min-Ho Shin,Sangmin Park,Seungho Ryu,Sun Young Yang,Seung Ho Choi,Jeongseon Kim,Sang-Wook Yi,Daehee Kang,Keun-Young 대한예방의학회 2022 예방의학회지 Vol.55 No.5

Objectives: We introduced the cohort studies included in the Korean Cohort Consortium (KCC), focusing on large-scale cohort studies established in Korea with a prolonged follow-up period. Moreover, we also provided projections of the follow-up and estimates of the sample size that would be necessary for big-data analyses based on pooling established cohort studies, including population-based genomic studies. Methods: We mainly focused on the characteristics of individual cohort studies from the KCC. We developed “PROFAN”, a Shiny application for projecting the follow-up period to achieve a certain number of cases when pooling established cohort studies. As examples, we projected the follow-up periods for 5000 cases of gastric cancer, 2500 cases of prostate and breast cancer, and 500 cases of non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The sample sizes for sequencing-based analyses based on a 1:1 case-control study were also calculated. Results: The KCC consisted of 8 individual cohort studies, of which 3 were community-based and 5 were health screening-based cohorts. The population-based cohort studies were mainly organized by Korean government agencies and research institutes. The projected follow-up period was at least 10 years to achieve 5000 cases based on a cohort of 0.5 million participants. The mean of the minimum to maximum sample sizes for performing sequencing analyses was 5917-72 102. Conclusions: We propose an approach to establish a large-scale consortium based on the standardization and harmonization of existing cohort studies to obtain adequate statistical power with a sufficient sample size to analyze high-risk groups or rare cancer subtypes.

미완결 코호트출산율 예측에 관한 연구

오진호 한국인구학회 2018 한국인구학 Vol.41 No.1

The previous study of cohort fertility rate for Korea shows that the focus is on the deriving of the factors influencing on childbirth behavior such as the change of birth behavior, the delayed birth rate of marriage cohort in the late 1980s, the difference of marriage age and causal relationship rather than forecasting of incomplete cohort fertility rate. This paper is based on statistical methods (regression analysis, time series prediction model, Lee-Carter model, Functional Data Model (FDM)), which complements the incomplete cohort from 1945 to 2015 and estimates the long-term time series on complete cohort fertility rate rather than deriving the factors of childbirth behavior. And it does compare results with official statistics of KOSTAT for the accuracy of the predicted values. According to the results, the cohort fertility rate for Korea was 3.58 in 1945, 2.08 in 1960, 1.59 in 1975, 1.34 in 1990, 1.33 in 2000 and 1.44 in 2015 cohort. This is similar to the cohort fertility rate of the Expert Judgment recently implemented by KOSTAT. Korea's cohort fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level fertility, 2.1, since the birth cohort of 1960, followed by a continuous descent, and then gradually to be increased after 2000 cohort. 코호트출산율(Cohort fertility)에대한국내연구는미완결코호트출산율추정보다는출산행태의변동을파악, 1980년대전후반의결혼코호트의출산지연경향규명, 출생코호트별연령별출산율, 연령별누적출산율, 결혼연령의차이와인과관계를도출등코호트출산율에대한출산행태의영향요인도출에 초점이 맞춰져 있다. 본 논문은 요인 도출보다는 1945~2015년생의 미완결 코호트를 보완하고장기(long-term) 시계열의 완결 코호트출산율을 도출하는 통계적 방법(회귀분석, 시계열 예측모형, Lee-Carter 모형, 함수적데이터모형(FDM)과산출과정을소개한다. 아울러시산된예측값의정확성을 위해 통계청의 공식통계와 비교한다. 분석결과 우리나라 출생연도별 코호트출산율은 1945년생3.58명, 1960년생2.08명, 1975년생1.59명, 1990년생1.34명, 2000년생1.33명, 2015년생1.44명이다. 이는 최근 통계청에서 실시한 전문가 판단법의 코호트출산율과 비슷한 수치이며 추이형태는 유사하다. 우리나라의코호트출산율은1960년생이후로인구대체선(2.1명) 아래로떨어졌고그이후로점진적인하강을 나타낸 후, 2000년생 이후에 점진적인 증가를 보일 것으로 전망된다.