식량작물에 피해를 주는 진딧물 4종의 발육과 번식에 미치는 온도의 영향

안정준,최경산,서보윤,정진교 한국응용곤충학회 2021 한국응용곤충학회지 Vol.60 No.4

진딧물은 직접적으로 식물의 체관부를 흡즙함으로써 식물 피해를 줄 뿐 아니라 식물 바이러스를 매개하고 그을음병을 유발시켜 식물에 이차적인 피해를 준다. 식량작물에 영향을 주는 기장테두리진딧물(Rhopalosiphum padi), 싸리수염진딧물(Aulacorthum solani), 아카시아진딧물 (Aphis craccivora), 완두수염진딧물(Acyrthosiphon pisum)의 발육, 생존, 번식에 미치는 온도의 영향을 생명표분석을 통하여 비교하였다. 10, 15, 20, 25, 30°C에서 얻은 발육단계별 발육기간, 생존율, 성충수명, 성충산자 자료를 암수이용생명표분석(age-stage, two-sex life table analysis) 방법을 이용하여 생명표매개변수를 추정하였다. 싸리수염진딧물은 30도에서 성충으로 발육하지 못하였다. 15°C를 제외한 모든 온도에서 기장 테두리진딧물의 내적자연증가율이 가장 높았으며 (10, 20, 25, 30°C에서 0.12, 0.34, 0.47, 0.32) 30도에서 완두수염진딧물의 내적자연증가율은 음의 값 (-0.04)이었다. 식량작물을 가해하는 진딧물 4종의 생명표 매개변수 비교분석을 통해 저온 적응성이 높은 종은 싸리수염진딧물이었고 고온 환경에서는 기장테두리진딧물이 우점할 것으로 추정되었다. Aphids can damage plants directly by absorbing their phloem sap and indirectly by transferring plant viruses and causing sooty mold. We compared the thermal effect on the development, survivorship, and reproduction of four cereal crop-damaging aphid species, Rhopalosiphum padi, Aulacorthum solani, Aphis craccivora, and Acyrthosiphon pisum using a life table analysis method. We investigated the stage-specific development period, survivorship, adult longevity, and fecundity of the abovementioned four aphids at 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30°C, respectively, and analyzed their life table parameters using the age-stage, two-sex life table analysis. A. solani nymphs could not complete their development to adulthood at 30°C. The intrinsic increase rate of R. padi was the highest at all tested temperatures except for that at 15°C (0.12, 0.34, 0.47, and 0.32 at 10, 20, 25, and 30°C, respectively), and that of A. pisum displayed negative values at 30°C (-0.04). It is speculated that R. padi would be a dominant species under high temperature conditions and A. solani is a highly adaptive species at low temperatures through the comparative analysis of the life table parameters of four aphid species damaging to cereal crops.

Tests for Equality of Two Distributions with Life-Table Model

강신수,Kang, Shin-Soo The Korean Data and Information Science Society 2001 한국데이터정보과학회지 Vol.12 No.2

There are several ways to test the equality of two survival distributions under a variety of situations. Tests for equality of two distributions with life-table model for univariate independent response times are reviewed and introduced. It is developed that the methodology to test it for correlated response times where treatments are applied to different independent sets of cohorts. Data, which can be separated into two independent sets, from an angioplasty study where more than one procedure is performed on some patients are used to illustrate this methodology.

소기업,소상공인의 생존분석에 관한 연구: 강원신용보증재단이 지원한 소기업?소상공인을 대상으로

이근우 ( Geum Woo Lee ),강만수 ( Man Su Kang ),박상규 ( Sang Kyu Park ) 한국중소기업학회 2015 中小企業硏究 Vol.37 No.1

소기업.소상공인들은 정보수집 능력 및 경기변동에 따른 위험 대처능력이 부족하여 사업에 실패할 확률이 높다. 따라서 소기업.소상공인들의 생존력을 높일 수 있는 체계적인 지원 방법에 대한 연구가 필요하다. 본 연구의 목적은 생존분석 기법을 이용하여 강원신용보증재단(강원신보)에서 보증 받은 기업의 생존함수 추정을 통해 생존율을 높일 수 있는 개선방향을 제시하고자 한다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 생존분석(survival analysis)중 비모수적 방법인 생명표법을 사용하였다. 강원신보에서 2008년 1월 1일부터 2012년 12월 31일까지 보증을 받은 34,465개 소기업, 소상공인을 대상으로 선정하였으며, 이중 중도절단된 자료는 29,639개이고 사고 자료는 4,526개이다. 생존분석 자료유형은 전체기업, 지점별, 업종별, 상환유형별, 기업규모별, 대표자 성별, 연대보증인 유형별, 특례보증 유형별, 재산소유 유형별, 부분보증 유형별, 보증금액 유형별, 대표자 연령별로 분석하였으며 상환유형을 제외하고 통계적으로 유의 하였다. 본 연구는 신보.기보 중심의 자료 분석에서 벗어나 지역신용보증재단(강원신보중심)의 자료를 이용한 분석 및 개선책을 제시하였다는 점에서 의의를 가진다. 이와 같은 결과는 향후 지역신용보증재단 실무자들에게 유익한 정보를 제공할 것으로 기대된다. Small businesses and small-enterprises insufficiently able to cope with risk according to business fluctuations and information-collecting ability have a high rate of failure. Therefore, research is needed on a systematic support method to increase their viability. The purpose of this study was to use the survival analysis technique to offer suggestions to increase the viability through estimation of survival functions of businesses guaranteed by the Gangwon Credit Guarantee Foundation (GCGF). For this purpose, the non-parametric life table method of survival analysis was used. 34,465 small businesses and small-enterprises guaranteed by the GCGF between January 1st, 2008 and December 31st, 2012 were selected, among which the materials for 29,639 were censored, leaving 4,526 for analysis. Survival analysis was done by analyzing all businesses, area, type of industry, repayment type, business scale, gender of CEO, joint surety type, special guarantee type, property possession type, partial guarantee type, guarantee amount type, and age of CEO, and all were statistically significant excluding repayment type. This study is important because it did not analyze materials based on new or previous reports, but materials from a regional credit guarantee foundation, and suggested plans for improvement. Results such as these are expected to be instructive in the future for workers at regional credit guarantee foundation.

Thermal effects on the development, fecundity and life table parameters of Rhopalosiphum padi (Linnaeus) (Hemiptera: Aphididae) on barley

박창규,최병렬,조점래,김정환,안정준 한국응용곤충학회 2017 Journal of Asia-Pacific Entomology Vol.20 No.3

The bird cherry-oat aphid Rhopalosiphum padi (Linnaeus) (Hemiptera: Aphididae) is a polyphagous species with a worldwide distribution. We investigated the development periods of R. padi nymphs, and the longevity and fecundity of apterous females. The study was conducted at six constant temperatures of 10.0, 15.0, 20.0, 25, 30.0, and 32.5 °C. R. padi developed successfully from nymph to adult stage at all temperatures tested. The developmental rate of R. padi increased as temperature increased from 10.0 to 25.0 °C and declined thereafter. The lower developmental threshold (LDT) and thermal constant (K) of the R. padi nymph stage were estimated by linear regression. Higher and lower temperature thresholds (TH and TL, respectively) were calculated by the Sharpe_Schoolfield_Ikemoto (SSI) model. The LDT and K of the R. padi nymph stage were 5.6 °C and 100.6 degree-days (DD). The temperature range of the R. padi nymph stage from TL to TH was 26.3 °C using the SSI model. Developmental completion of the nymph stages was described using a two-parameter Weibull distribution model. The adult emergence frequency of R. padi over the full range of constant temperatures was simulated using developmental rate functions and the Weibull function. Daily nymph production of R. padi was estimated in relation to adult age and temperature. The biological characteristics of R. padi in relation to temperature were presented by a life table analysis. Life table parameters were estimated with the jackknife method. Biological characteristics of R. padi populations from different geographic areas were discussed.

아동보호체계 내 조기지원사례의 하위집단 분류와 재신고 특성

강지영 한국아동복지학회 2020 한국아동복지학 Vol.69 No.2

This study aimed to identify subgroups of “early support” cases in Korean CPS(child protective services) system and examine the characteristics of re-reports by subgroups. Early support cases are those that are unsubstantiated but are at risk of child maltreatment. The sample included 1,165 early support cases of CPS in 2014. The latent class analysis found three groups: high-risk caregivers and their school-aged children with problem behaviors, medium-risk mothers and their preschoolers, and low-risk caregivers and their school-aged children. When we followed the participants through the end of the year 2016 to observe re-reports, the re-report rate was 12%-13%, and the rate of substantiated re-report was 9-10% across the subgroups. These rates were higher than the re-report rate among the substantiated initial cases, as indicated in previous studies. The life-table method showed no significant difference in the re-report rate by time among the subgroups. However, the results of the chi-square analysis revealed that the high-risk caregivers and their school-aged children with problem behaviors had significantly more prior CPS report than the two other subgroups. Based on the results, we discussed ways to strengthen a prevention-oriented approach in the Korean CPS system. 본 연구는 우리나라 아동보호체계 내 조기지원사례에 대한 이해를 증진하기 위해 하위집단을 분류하고 재신고 관련 특성을 비교해 보는 것을 목적으로 하였다. 조기지원사례는 아동학대 발생의 증거는 없으나 위험이 존재한다고 판단된 사례로, 2014년 아동보호체계에서 조기지원사례로 판단된1,165사례를 대상으로 아동학대 위험요인을 활용하여 잠재계층분석을 실시하였다. 분석결과, 조기지원사례는 고위험 양육자와 문제행동 학령기 자녀집단, 중위험 모와 영유아 집단, 저위험 양육자와 학령기 자녀 집단의 세집단으로 분류되었다. 연구대상을 2016년 12월말까지 관찰하여 재신고 및재신고 시 사례판단 결과를 살펴본 결과, 세 집단 모두 재신고율은 12-13%, 재신고 되어 아동학대사례로 판단 받은 비율은 9-10%로 비슷하였다. 이는선행연구를 통해 알려진 아동학대사례의 재신고 및 재학대 발생비율보다높은 비율이다. 생존분석의 생명표 방법을 통해 하위집단 간에 시간에 따른재신고 비율을 비교한 결과 유의한 차이는 없었다. 다만 교차분석 결과, 하위집단 중에 고위험 양육자와 문제행동 학령기 자녀 집단이 이전에 아동보호체계에 신고 된 비율이 다른 집단보다 유의한 수준에서 높았다. 연구결과를 토대로 우리나라 아동보호체계의 개선방안을 논의하였다.

비행청소년의 재범률 감소를 위한 인지행동치료(CBT)와 웃음치료(LT)의 장기적 효과

류창현 아시아교정포럼 2015 교정담론 Vol.9 No.1

본 연구는 90명의 비행청소년들을 대상으로 실시된 선행연구에 기초한 종단연구로서 치료 프로그램집단들 간에 따른 재범률 감소와 관련한 장기적 효과를 살펴보고자 생명표방법(life-table method)과 36개월(3년) 기간 동안을 추적조사 하여 생존분석(survival analysis)으로 검증하였다. 치료 프로그램집단에 따른 재범률을 분석하기 위해 전체 대상자 82명을 36개월 기간 동안의 추적조사를 실시하였다. 대상자 82명들 중 천안소년교도소에서 형기가 만료 되지 않은 13명의 복역자들(인지행동치료집단 5명, 웃음치료집단 8명)을 제외시킨 대상자 69명을 추적조회를 실시하였다. 추적조사결과, 총 69명의 대상 중 17명(24.6%)이 재범을 하였으며, 52명(75.4%)은 생존하였다. 개별적 치료 프로그램집단에 따른 추적조사결과를 자세히 살펴보면, 인지행동치료집단은 대상자 38명 중, 재범자 6명(15.8%)과 생존자 32명(84.2%)을 나타났으며, 반면에 웃음치료집단은 대상자 31명 중, 재범자 11명(35.5%)과 생존자 20명(64.5%)을 보이고 있으며, 이는 통계적으로 유의하지 않은 것으로 나타났다(p = .059). 즉, 인지행동치료집단과 웃음치료집단의 단순 생존율은 차이가 없는 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로, 연구의 제한점과 추후 연구에 대한 방향을 제시하였다. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the longitudinal effects of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) and laughter therapy (LT) on reducing the recidivism rate of juvenile offenders as a fellow-up study of Chan-Hyun Ryu and Soo-Jung Lee’s “Comparison of laughter therapy and cognitive behavior therapy on anger reduction and management institutionalized juvenile delinquents (2009).” There’s been a growing accumulation of longitudinal studies by using the life-table method in survival analysis to identify the program effects of CBT and LT on post-treatment recidivism. The process of clinical trials were to compare the longitudinal therapeutic effects of cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) and laughter therapy (LT) on recidivism rate of juvenile delinquents in a 3-year (36 months) follow-up study. 69 delinquent male participants (mean age 20.12 yrs) were traced to be a recidivism rate of 24.6% (n=17) and a survival rate of 75.4% (n=52). Specifically, the positive effects of best practices of the CBT group (n=38) on a recidivism rate of 15.8% (n=6) and a survival rate of 84.2% (n=32) compared to the LT group (n=31) on a recidivism rate of 35.5% (n=11) and a survival rate of 64.5% (n=20) were shown (p = .059). In addition, the mere survival rates between the CBT group and the LT group represented no significant difference. The following implications and limitations of this study were discussed along with the suggestions for future studies as well.

새만금 간척지 곰솔과 졸참나무 수림대의 초기 생존 분석

김현,이총규 경상국립대학교 농업생명과학연구원 2019 농업생명과학연구 Vol.53 No.5

본 연구는 새만금 간척지에서 방풍시설의 설치에 따른 수림대의 초기 생존율을 분석하기 위하여 생존 분석기법 중의 하나인 생명표법을 적용하였다. 생명표법은 의학, 사회과학 등 많은 분야에서 활용하고 있는 방법이며, 본 연구에서는 방풍책의 설치에 따른 초기 수림대 수목의 생존 기간별 생존율, 중위 시간 등을 생명표를 통해 알아보고, 생존함수 그래프와 위험함수 그래프 그리고 수림대별 비교를 통해 생존율의 차이를 분석하고자 하였다. 주요 결과로는 곰솔 수림대의 중위 시간은 100% P-tb와 25% P-tb에서는 48.00개월 이었고, 50% P-tb는 20.85개월로 짧았다. 25% P-tb에서 누적 생존율이 가장 높았으며, 위험률은 50% P-tb가가장 높았다. 졸참나무 수림대의 경우 모든 수림대에서 중위 시간은 48.00개월 이었으며, 50% P-tb에서 누적 생존율이 가장 높았고, 위험률은 100% P-tb에서 가장 높았다. 생존율 비교 결과, 곰솔 수림대는 전체적으로 방풍책의 설치가 생존율에 영향을 미쳤으며, 특히 50% P-tb와 25% P-tb에서 유의미한 차이가 나타났는데, 25% P-tb가 생존율과 위험률 측면에서 우수한 결과를 나타내었다. 반면에 졸참나무 수림대의 경우 전체 수림대의 생존율이나 수림대별 생존율은 방풍책의 설치에 영향을 받지 않는 것으로 분석되었다. In this study, the life table method, one of the survival analysis techniques, was applied to analyze the initial survival rate of tree belt due to the installation of windy fence in the Saemangeum reclaimed land. The life table method was used in many fields, such as medical and social science, to identify survival rates and median survival time by a survival period of the early tree belts according to the installation of the windy fence, and to analyze differences in survival rate through comparison by a survival function graph, a hazard function graph and each tree belt. The main results were 100% P-tb and 25% P-tb for Pinus thunbergii, which were 48.00 months of the median time, the 50% P-tb had a shorter median time of 20.85 months. Cumulative survival was the highest at 25% P-tb, the hazard rate was the highest at 50% P-tb. All of the Quercus serrata tree belts had a median time of 48.00 months, the cumulative survival rate was highest at 50% P-tb, and the hazard rate was the highest at 100% P-tb. As a result of the comparison of survival rates, the installation of windy fence affected the survival rate of P. thunbergii tree belts, significant differences were found, especially at 50% P-tb and 25% P-tb, 25% P-tb showed excellent results in terms of survival and hazard rates. On the other hand, in case of Q. serrata tree belts, the survival rate of the entire tree belt or the survival rate of each tree belt was not affected by the installation of the windy fence.

건축공사 주요자재별 에너지소비량 및 CO_2 배출 원단위 값 산출에 산업연관표 적용 적정성 검토 연구 -2005년, 2007년 산업연관표를 중심으로-

정영철,김성은,장영준,김태희,김광희 한국건축시공학회 2011 한국건축시공학회지 Vol.11 No.3

한국은행에서 2000년도에 발행된 산업연관표를 적용한주요 건축자재의 에너지소비량과 CO_2 배출에 대한 원단위DB는 있지만 2005년, 2007년에 발행된 산업연관표를 이용한 원단위 DB는 없는 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 최근에 발행된 2005년, 2007년도 산업연관표를 이용하여 주요 건축자재에서 발생되는 에너지소비량 및 CO_2 배출 원단위 값을 산정하고자 한다. 주요 건축자재의 에너지소비량 및 CO_2 배출원단위 산출을 위한 방법은 산업연관표를 이용한 DB 구축방식을 바탕으로 산출하였으며, 건설현장에서 주로 사용되는 16가지의 건설자재는 선별하여 적용하였다. 기존 연구결과에서 제시한 2000년도 산업연관표를 적용하여 산출된 원단위 DB 값과 비교한 결과 근소한 차이를 보이고 있어 본연구의 산출방법이 적정한 것으로 판단하였다. 2005년,2007년도 산업연관표를 이용하여 산출한 에너지소비량과CO_2 배출 원단위 값은 감소세를 보이고 있는 것으로 나타났으며, 시멘트와 철근을 주원료로 하는 자재에서 가장 많은에너지소비량 및 CO_2 배출 원단위 값을 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과를 통해 국내 실정에 적합한 건설자재 생산단계에서발생되는 환경부하의 간접적인 예측이 가능할 것으로 사료된다. Currently, there is database for per unit requirements of major construction materials in terms of energy consumption and CO_2 emission based on the input-output table published by the Bank of Korea in 2000, but no database for per unit requirements based on input-output tables was published in 2005 and 2007. The purpose of this study was to calculate the unit requirement values of major construction materials in terms of energy consumption and CO_2 emission generated by using the input-output tables published in 2005 and 2007. To estimate the unit requirement values, a database building method with the input-output tables was adopted by selecting 16 types of construction materials in wide use on construction sites. When the study results were compared with existing unit requirement values based on the input-output table of 2000, there were small discrepancies, from which it can be interpreted that the method used in the study is reasonable. Unit requirement values estimated based on input-output tables of 2005and 2007 tended to decrease, and the highest value of energy consumption and CO_2 emission were found in the materials using cement and rebar.

Thermal effects on the development, fecundity and life table paramenters of Aphis craccivora Koch (Hemiptera: Aphidiae) on Faba bean

한국응용곤충학회 한국응용곤충학회 2017 한국응용곤충학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2017 No.04

The cowpea aphid Aphis craccivora Koch (Hemiptera: Aphididae) is an important pest on several species of legumes. We investigated the development periods and survivorship of A. craccivora nymph, and longevity and fecundity of A. craccivora adult. The study was conducted at five constant temperatures of 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30°C, respectively. The lower developmental threshold (LDT) and thermal constant (K) of A. craccivora nymph stage were estimated by linear regression. Higher temperature threshold (TH) and lower temperature threshold (TL) were calculated by biophysiological model. Developmental completion of A. craccivora nymph stage was described using a two-parameter Weibull distribution model. Life table parameters were estimated by the jackknife method.

Effects of temperature on development, molting, and population growth of Yuukianura szeptyckii Deharveng & Weiner, 1984 (Collembola: Neanuridae)

Lee, Y.S.,Yang, N.H.,Son, J.,Kim, Y.,Park, K.H.,Cho, K. Elsevier Science B. V 2016 Applied soil ecology Vol.108 No.-

Neanuridae is one of the most diversified families of Collembola, but its biology and ecology are poorly understood. This is, to our knowledge, the first report on the biology of the neanurid species Yuukianura szeptyckii Deharveng & Weiner. Y. szeptyckii individuals were collected near a stream in Korea, and maintained on OECD artificial soil. This species showed a better reproductive performance on an artificial soil-based substrate than on charcoal-based substrate, and thus the soil-based substrate was used for investigating its biology. The sex ratio of Y. szeptyckii was found to be biased toward females (88.0%), and its mode of reproduction was sexual. The development, survival, longevity, reproduction, molting, and life table parameters of Y. szeptyckii were evaluated at 15, 20, 25, and 30<SUP>o</SUP>C. Individual growth was estimated by measuring head capsule widths. Mean developmental period from egg to adult decreased with increasing temperature from 73.7 d at 15<SUP>o</SUP>C to 25.6 d at 30<SUP>o</SUP>C. In the adult stage, ovipositional periods decreased with temperature from 273 d at 15<SUP>o</SUP>C to 45.5 d at 30<SUP>o</SUP>C, but senile periods increased at temperatures above 20<SUP>o</SUP>C. The developmental zero temperature was estimated to be 7.88<SUP>o</SUP>C. Median survival time (ST<SUB>50</SUB>s) and mean longevity decreased with temperature from 228d at 15<SUP>o</SUP>C to 98.0d at 30<SUP>o</SUP>C and from 401 d at 15<SUP>o</SUP>C to 177 d at 30<SUP>o</SUP>C, respectively. The maximum and minimum total number of eggs produced per individual were observed at 20<SUP>o</SUP>C (73.8 eggs) and 30<SUP>o</SUP>C (6.9 eggs), respectively. The head capsule width at first oviposition was significantly smaller at 25 and 30<SUP>o</SUP>C (0.30-0.31mm) than that at 15 and 20<SUP>o</SUP>C (0.45-0.46mm), while the head capsule width at last oviposition was smaller at 30<SUP>o</SUP>C (0.55mm) than that at 15 to 25<SUP>o</SUP>C (0.63-0.64mm). The molting rate (per individual per week) increased with temperature from 0.50 at 15<SUP>o</SUP>C to 1.43 at 30<SUP>o</SUP>C, but the total number of molts during the life span varied only slightly, ranging from 29.1 at 25<SUP>o</SUP>C to 33.2 at 30<SUP>o</SUP>C. The population reared at 20<SUP>o</SUP>C had the highest intrinsic rate of increase (0.060) and net reproductive rate (84.5), indicating that the optimal temperature for Y. szeptyckii population growth is 20<SUP>o</SUP>C. This study demonstrated that temperature can profoundly affect the development, molting, and population growth of Y. szeptyckii.