신정부 양대 금융정책과 향후 과제

한재준 ( Jae-joon Han ) 한국경제학회 2018 한국경제포럼 Vol.11 No.3

The financial policy of Moon Jae-in regime can be divided into productive financial policy, which aims to flow funds into the productive field, and inclusive financial policy in an effort to relieving polarization. Productive financial policy consists of four tasks: recovery of dynamics of the financial market, re-leap of the capital market, contribution to the fourth industrial revolution and job creation. Meanwhile, the inclusive financial policy consists of reducing the financial burden of vulnerable citizens, protecting vulnerable debtors, supporting the formation of household financial assets, and strengthening social responsibility of finance. We generally agree with the necessity and the direction of productive finance policy. However, in the course of policy implementation, we’d like to recommend that ①expanding the supply of financial products for the short-term performance perspective should be avoided, rather the efforts to improve the price discovery function and the risk management capability of the financial market should be enhanced furthermore; that ②the financial administration be switched into a negative system, while the efforts of improving market predictability should be made together; and that ③supervision by business sector should become more flexible, while the efforts to maintain the soundness of the financial system should be enhanced in order to prevent financial instability. We also agree with the necessity of inclusive finance, but it should not undermine the basic principles of the financial industry, such as the principle of repayment and high-return with high-risk. In the case of small-loan financial policy, now it is necessary to revise and supplement the policy implementation while testing the effectiveness of the policy quantitatively. Lastly, for the financial business sector, it is necessary to dispose the real estate mortgage lending-oriented business practices but rather to concentrate on the enhancement of information production and risk evaluation & management capacities, which are the financial intermediary’s main tasks.

금융연구(金融硏究) : 정책금리의 금융안정 수단활용 방안 평가

주동헌 ( Dong Hun Joo ) 한국금융학회 2014 금융연구 Vol.28 No.3

본고는 비용 및 수요 충격 이외에 주택수요 및 금융시장 충격을 고려할 수 있는 뉴케인지언DSGE 모형을 구축하고 정책손실함수와 선형 정책금리 조정함수에 금융안정 관련 지표 변수를추가할 때 경제 충격별 정책효과를 모의실험을 통해 평가하여 보았다. 모의실험 결과 첫째, 모든경제적 충격에 대하여 정책금리가 물가 및 생산 갭 이외에 신용량이나 신용위험 프리미엄에도반응할 경우 물가, 생산 및 신용량 변동성의 가중합으로 정의되는 정책손실이 감소하는 것으로나타났다. 다만 이는 물가변동성의 확대를 대가로 얻어진다. 둘째, 정책금리 결정에 금융안정을고려할 때 비용 충격의 경우 정책손실 감소 효과가 가장 큰 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 선형 정책금리반응 함수에 금융안정 관련 변수로 신용위험 프리미엄 보다는 신용량을 고려하는 것이 정책효과가우월한 것으로 나타났다. After the experience of 2008 global financial crisis that had beenamplified by the financial sector, the central bank is mandated the financialstability in addition to the price stability in the name of macro-prudentialpolicy. Despite the mandated obligation of financial stability, however, thecentral bank of the Korean economy has very restrictive policy tools formacro-prudential policy. Liquidity provision as a lender of last resort againstthe banking crisis is an ex-post policy measure, rather than a preemptiveone that can be used for a preventive purpose. The recently discussedrepresentative macro-prudential policy tools such as the loan to value (LTV)ratio, bank levy, or counter-cyclical buffer belong to financial supervisoryauthority. This means close policy coordination between monetary andfinancial supervisory authority is required. But the establishment of suchcoordination is yet doubtful. As a result, the central bank has no choicebut to use the short term interest rate as a macro-prudential policy toolin addition to as a monetary policy tool, at least for the time being. On these circumstances, this study investigates the effects of shortterm interest rate adjustments when they are performed to pursue boththe monetary and macro-prudential policy purposes. The model used inthis paper is basically a new Keynesian DSGE model that is augmented witha financial sector and real estate sector following Bernanke, Gertler, Gilchrist(1999) and Iacoviello (2005) respectively. The monetary policy is in thefunctional form of Taylor rule type that is augmented with financial variablesuch as the credit amount or the credit risk premium. The policy is performedin an optimal way, however, by determining the coefficients of policy functionsso that the central bank``s quadratic policy objective function augmentedwith financial stability variable is minimized. In this sense, the policyimplication in this paper is normative rather than positive. The policyexperiments are fulfilled for the separate four shocks of demand, supply,housing, and financial ones.The four policy implementation methods are experimented in this study. The first is the traditional monetary policy that does not consider themacro-prudential policy at all. In the second policy implementation, thefinancial variable is included not in the central bank``s objective functionbut in the interest rate policy function. This experiments the policy thatconsiders the financial factor to the extent that the factor affects traditionalmonetary policy objectives of price and real sector stability. The third isthe case that the credit amount is used as a financial variable in the interestrate policy function. The fourth is the case that the credit risk premiumis used as a financial variable in the interest rate policy function. The experimental results can be summarized as follows. First, thepolicy loss defined by the weighted average variations of price, output,and credit reduces when the policy interest rate responds to financialvariables. It costs the price stability instead however. Second, the interestrate policy that considers financial stability is most effective to the costshock. This was especially true when the interest rate responds to the creditamount rather than the credit risk premium. Third, as a financial stabilityindicator in the interest rate policy rule, using credit amount turns outto be superior rather than using credit risk premium.

우리나라 재정성과 향상에 관한 연구 : 복지와 IT분야를 중심으로

깅영철,박경돈,이재원,임준형 한국행정연구원 2009 기본연구과제 Vol.2009 No.-

I. Research Background and Objective□Background of the Research○Performance evaluation of public finance is a changing discipline. As governmental evaluation systems change, the implications for financial performance information do as well. Evaluating the performance of governmental activities should not neglect public finance and budgeting. To take full advantage of the evaluation system, scholars and students always should pay careful attention to performance budgeting and financial accountability. In some sense, their work has been successful in setting a more simplified structure of performance evaluation rather than implementing the flexible performance system in practical detail.○However, they often overlook the particular features of individual governmental work and function. In other words, Korean governments are disproportionately stuck in the earlier stages of performance evaluation, which is intended to make a monolitic evaluation tool that can help review all the functional policy areas in government.○One of the well- known problems in Korean governments is that they have failed to consider the differential aspect of individual government function. This perspective includes some criticism on the relevancy of use data, evaluative tools, and evaluation processes. When governments try to overcome the weaknesses in financial management, their actions toward an integrated evaluation system are not adequate to accomplish an effective financial performance measurement tool. In particular, there has been no consideration of how to review governmental performance that cannot be brought into the overall performance system.□Objective of the Research○In this regard, the study aims to provide governmental agencies with an alternative to a performance evaluation system for financial performance. In consideration of public financial efficiency with respect to specific features of each policy area, this study started with the basic idea that a current financial evaluation system should not be designed for tracking and reviewing the entire functional area of governmental service.○This study covered the broad scope of a performance system and provided an alternative way of viewing financing accountability, one that has not previously been within the realm of policy implementation. A critical purpose of this research is to provide a new way of looking at performance evaluation.II. Main Research Questions and Analysis Results□In the main body of this project, most chapters are devoted to explaining the problems of the current financial system, performance budgeting, finance implementation theory, and model. Furthermore, the separation of an evaluation system tailored to each governmental function area - especially Welfare Policy and Information Technology Policy - is extensively discussed. Given the discrepancy between a monolithic evaluation system and separated evaluation system, performance data are needed to transition to a new evaluation system that will highlight performance information of real situations and performance accountability.○As a result, this research was organized as follows:○Chapter I outlined the whole structure of this project and raised a key question.○Chapter II examined theoretical models in performance evaluation with respect to performance budgeting, performance management, financial evaluation, and study model. This chapter also introduced the current financial performance system, focusing on the Financial Assessment Rating Tool and the problems of a departmental performance system. This chapter gave special emphasis to the connections of performance evaluation, financial management, and budgeting in government.○Chapter III reviewed traditional performance evaluation in the Social Welfare function and provided new dimensions with improvement systems such as a voucher system, so- called intergovernmental fiscal relations, welfare fiscal project, welfare performance information, financial discretion, and special accounting. In this chapter, the results for better financial performance were drawn from on- site and on- line surveys of public employees in the subareas of Social Welfare policy.○Chapter IV focused on the individual performance system dealing with information lifetime, IT multi- dimensionality, and organization context, centering on the On- Nara e- government system for performance evaluation. Surveys of system users or public employees were utilized. In Chapters III and IV, an effective and relevant way of evaluating an agency`s financial performance that has a different meaning for policy implementation was considered.○Chapter V summarized and discussed the lessons and policy proposals for a better performance evaluation system and its implications for individual policy areas. Individual performance factors in each realm should be associated with the particular features of a policy nature -per se- and policy implementation. Making a heterogeneous performance system can help government and its employees work better and become more satisfied with the results.III. Policy Recommendations□The analysis of individual functional areas such as Social Welfare and Information Technology in government provides the following implications:○Performance information should facilitate a linkage between budgeting and evaluation.○Performance evaluation in social welfare should be aligned with a goals system involving integrated visions and objectives in financial efficiency.○Performance evaluation in IT should face no significant cultural impediments in public organizations.□More specifically, the current financial statement and performance review could neither disclose the actual quality of agency performance nor provide an overall picture of the financial efficiency in the government and its agencies. Thus, a new strategy is requested to enable scholars and related persons to measure financial performance more comprehensively and accurately by reviewing performance information in individual policy areas. In the meantime, the conclusion drawn from the analysis is that the performance evaluation of output- oriented policy areas should not be applied to those of non- output- oriented realms.□There has been a noticeable incongruence in accepting the ramifications from performance evaluations, even though the government employed the same measurement tool to review policy implementation. This implies that in government a comparability- centered evaluation approach of financial performance evidently has more weaknesses than a functionalcentered evaluation approach.□However, all of the above proposals are insufficient to assure that performance evaluation and consequent evaluation are the most efficient and accountable. Some obstacles in performance evaluation could arise over the years to hinder progress. An alternative evaluation approach based on each policy- tailored performance measurement contains a detailed and proper review and evaluation. So, it should be realized that the implementation of desirable performance management should not be a short- term effort. In summary, it is necessary that all concerned scholars and individuals pay serious consideration to making a differentiated approach to evaluating performance in their respective policy spheres, accordingly as individual policy is implemented.

중소기업 금융지원 정책에 대한 역사적 고찰

박창균,이기영 한국금융학회 2017 금융연구 Vol.31 No.4

본고는 지난 60여년에 걸친 우리나라 중소기업 금융지원 정책을 역사적으로 살펴봄으로써현재의 중소기업 금융지원 시스템이 가지고 있는 구조적 특징의 연원을 추적하고 향후정책방향을 설정함에 있어서 시사점을 도출하는데 목적을 두고 있다. 중소기업에 대한 금융지원은 중소기업정책의 목표를 구현하기 위하여 정책당국이 구사할 수 있는 효과적인 정책수단중 하나이다. 우리나라의 경우에도 금융지원을 중소기업 지원을 위한 유용한 정책수단으로활용해 왔는데 그 특징을 두 가지 정도로 요약할 수 있다. 첫째, 중소기업 정책은 시대변화에따른 경제발전 전략 수정에 맞추어 조정되어 왔으며 금융지원도 이를 뒷받침하기 위하여변화되었다는 점을 지적할 수 있다. 모든 정부는 예외 없이 시대 변화에 따른 경제발전 전략에맞추어 중소기업 정책을 구사하였고 중소기업 금융지원정책 역시 이에 부합하는 방식으로설계․운용되어 왔다. 즉 중소기업 금융지원정책이 그 자체의 목표를 설정하고 이를 달성하기보다는 보다 광의의 국가정책목표를 이루기 위한 보조 수단으로 활용되었다. 이에 대하여 제한된재정자원을 효과적으로 활용하여 정책 목표를 달성하기 위한 전략이라는 긍정적인 평가를 할수도 있으나 다른 한편으로는 중소기업 금융지원의 일관된 정책목표가 부재한데서 기인한잘못된 정책추진이라는 해석도 가능하다. 둘째, 정책의 효과에 대한 검증 없이 중소기업 금융지원의 규모와 범위가 지속적으로 확대되어 왔다는 점을 지적할 수 있다. 중소기업 금융지원을둘러싼 이해관계자의 왜곡된 유인구조로 인하여 정책의 효과성과 효율성에 대한 별다른 검증없이 중소기업 금융지원 규모와 지원대상이 지속적으로 확대되었다. 정책의 수혜집단인 중소기업이 효과성과 효율성 근거하여 금융지원 규모를 축소하려는 시도에 반대할 것임은 명백하며 정책금융기관도 업무 영역과 영향력 위축을 우려하여 이에 적극적으로 반대할 것이다. 정책당국에 대하여 중소기업 금융지원 정책의 책무성을 요구하는 핵심 주체인 국회의 경우에도중소기업 소유주가 국회의원의 중요한 정치기반을 구성하고 있는 현실에서 중소기업 금융지원규모 축소에 적극적으로 저항해 왔다. 더하여 중소기업은 대기업에 비하여 약자라는 인식으로인하여 중소기업 지원에 우호적인 사회 분위기가 형성되어 있다는 점도 중소기업 금융지원 규모관리를 어렵게 만드는 요인이 되고 있다. 지난 60여년의 역사적 경험을 바탕으로 하여 정치적지형 변화에 영향을 받지 않고 고용과 혁신의 중심축으로서 중소기업에 대한 국민경제적 요구가실현될 수 있도록 중소기업 금융지원 체제가 구축되어야 할 것이다. The purpose of the paper is to examine historical development of SME financial support policies in Korea for the last 60 years and to provide implications to future policy directions. Financial support to SMEs is an effective policy tool to promote SMEs and the Korean Government also has actively utilized the measure in pursuing the policy goal of SME promotion. Two characteristic features of SME financial support policy in Korea should be pointed out. First, SME policy in Korea has been adjusted to changes in development strategy by the government and financial support policy had also been reshuffled to accommodate environmental and institutional changes. Financial support to SMEs has been utilized as a complementary policy tool to achieve a boarder national agenda of development strategy rather than independent set of policy goals. We can cast a positive assessment in that it was inevitable choice to achieve policy goals by making a full use of scarce financial resources. However, it is also possible to interpret it as an evidence to support the claim that the absence of clear policy goals in financial support to SMEs resulted in inconsistent and ineffective policies. Next, it also should be pointed out that the size of financial support to SMEs in Korea has been increasing without serious examination on policy effectiveness. We offer the distorted incentive structure of stake-holders as the main reason. It is natural that the beneficiaries of the policy, SMEs, vehemently object to any attempts to control the size of policy support. Concerned about reduced power in resource allocation, policy agents are also very averse to reduction of policy benefits even if it is based on rigorous assesment on policy effectiveness. In addition, the ultimate public platform asking accountability of government policies, the National Assembly, is also reluctant to initiate discussion on the adequacy of financial support to SMEs since the owners and employees of SMEs are very important body of the constituency. SME financial support policy as well as SME policy should be constantly adjusted as economic and institutional environment change. The lessons from the examination of historical development of SME financial support policies for the last 60 years provide important implication for future policy directions.

금융시스템 안정화를 위한 시스템 리스크 분석에 관한 연구

박석강 한국산업경제학회 2025 산업경제연구 Vol.38 No.1

글로벌 금융위기 이후 각국의 금융정책의 주요 목적으로 여겨졌던 물가안정이 금융시스템의 안정을 위한 충분조건은 아니며 금융시스템의 불안정이 경제 시스템에 대한 충격을 증폭시키는 부(-)의 결과가 물가안정에도 영향을 미친다고 각국의 정책당국은 인식하고 있다. 이러한 환경에서 각국의 정책당국은 금융정책의 위험추구경로(risk–taking channel)를 통해 금리환경변화 즉 저금리하에서의 금융시스템의 취약성과 명목금리를 인상함에 따라 경제가 둔화될 수 있다는 것에 주목해야 한다. 특히 금융기관의 위험이 금융시스템의 내재적인 불안정성과 정보의 비대칭으로 인해 금융시스템의 취약성과 불안정성이 대두되기 때문에 본고에서는 금융시스템의 취약성을 고려하여 예방적 금융정책(lean-against-the-wind-policy)의 이론모형을 통해 금융감독당국의 건전성 규제정책을 분석하였다. 또한 위험추구경로(risk–taking channel)를 통해 금융시스템의 취약성과 명목금리 인상에 따른 인플레이션, 실물경제의 침체사이에 상충관계에 직면하기 때문에 각국의 통화정책이 실물경제와 자산가격에 미치는 영향을 추정할 때 기준금리보다는 유동성 변화에 초점을 두고 분석하는 것이 적절하다고 볼 수 있다. 중앙은행의 기준금리 수준에 따라 금리가 변화(인상, 혹은 인하)하더라도 유동성 등에 미치는 영향이 크게 다를 수 있다는 점에 유의해야 한다. 우리나라의 경우 통화정책 이외의 다양한 요인들이 실물과 자산가격에 영향을 미치는 만큼 통화정책의 영향만을 분리하는 것이 쉽지 않겠지만 저금리 국면에서는 위험추구경로(risk taking channel)를 통해 통화정책이 자산가격에 미치는 영향이 확대될 수 있다 Since the global financial crisis, policymakers in various countries have recognized that price stability, once regarded as the primary goal of financial policies, is not a sufficient condition for financial system stability. They have come to understand that financial system instability can amplify negative shocks to the economic system, which, in turn, impacts price stability. Under these circumstances, policymakers must pay attention to the risk-taking channel of financial policy. This involves examining how changes in the interest rate environment, such as vulnerabilities in the financial system under low interest rates or the potential economic slowdown following nominal interest rate hikes, influence stability. Particularly, financial institutions' risks, arising from the inherent instability of the financial system and information asymmetry, highlight the vulnerabilities and instability of the system. In this context, this study analyzes prudential regulatory policies of financial supervisory authorities through a theoretical model of preventive financial policies (lean-against-the-wind policy) that accounts for the vulnerabilities of the financial system. Additionally, due to the trade-off between financial system vulnerabilities and the potential for inflation and economic stagnation resulting from nominal interest rate hikes through the risk-taking channel, it is suggested that when estimating the effects of monetary policy on the real economy and asset prices, the focus should shift from benchmark interest rates to changes in liquidity. It is important to note that the impact on liquidity can vary significantly depending on the level of the benchmark interest rates in central banks and whether rates are raised or lowered. In South Korea, isolating the effects of monetary policy is challenging, given that various factors beyond monetary policy influence the real economy and asset prices. However, during periods of low interest rates, the influence of monetary policy on asset prices can be amplified through the risk-taking channel.

한국은행의 역할과 정책수단: 금융안정정책을 중심으로

김인준 ( In June Kim ),김성현 ( Sunghyun Kim ),김소영 ( Soyoung Kim ),김진일 ( Jinill Kim ),신관호 ( Kwanho Shin ) 한국금융연구원 2017 한국경제의 분석 Vol.23 No.1

Under the current economic environment characterized by slow growth, low inflation and financial instability, ojectives of central bank have expanded to include financial stability in addition to the traditional objectives of price and employment stability. This paper studies what the proper role of the Bank of Korea (BOK) should be in conducting macroprudential policy to enhance financial stability. This paper proposes that BOK should attempt to stabilize output while maintaining the flexible inflation targeting policy. The global financial crisis shows that price and output stability does not gaurantee financial stability and that financial instability can adversely affect price and output stability in turn. Therefore, the central bank should actively engage in achieving financial stability in advance. Monetary policy itself would not be sufficient to achieve financial stability. BOK needs proper tools to conduct macroprudential policy to satisfy the objective of financial stability added to the BOK Bylaws in 2011. One practical way is to amend the Bylaws to require that the Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) should consult with BOK in macroprudential policy making process. At the same time, it is necessary to be explicit about the responsibility of BOK. For long-term solution, we suggest three proposals: (1) establishing the “Committee for Financial Stability” who is responsible for all policy making regarding macroprudential policy; (2) designating BOK as the main institution for macroprudential policy; (3) making BOK responsible for all policies regarding financial stability, replacing the role of FSC, following the case of U.K. in the post global financial crisis period. However, the last proposal is not so easy to implement in practice because it requires the overhaul of the whole banking and financial supervisory structure.

불완전한 금융시장이 고려된 DSGE모형하에서의 통화정책에 대한 연구

정용승 ( Yong Seung Jung ) 한국금융연구원 2010 금융연구 Vol.24 No.4

The recent financial crises have generated interest in the design of monetary policy rules not only for the developed economies, but also for the emerging economies. Under the financial turmoil, many policy makers think that there exits a trade-off between the inflation and the macroeconomic goal of financial market stability and brings into question the desirable form of the monetary policy. To address these questions, one needs to set up a theoretical model that takes explicitly the market failures. Considering the empirical fact that the real, nominal, and financial frictions are important in understanding the effects of monetary policy in both developed and emerging economies, it is natural to incorporate these rigidities and explore the behavior of the macroeconomic variables such as production, external risk premium, and net worth in the economy. For this purpose, this paper sets up a new Keynesian model with external habit in consumption and financial frictions due to asymmetric information between financial intermediaries and entrepreneurs along the line of Bernanke et al.(1999). Then it explores the effects of alternative interest rate rules on the economy when the economy is vulnerable to the various kinds of shocks. Based on this model, the paper also quantifies the effect of monetary policy on the welfare and compares the welfare cost of alternative monetary policy rules. In the circumstances of external habit in consumption, agents are determined to catch up with the Joneses without considering the effects of such behavior on aggregate demand, they unconsciously overheat the economy in expansionary phases and cool it down excessively in contractionary phases. This kind of external habit formation which generates unnecessary fluctuations in the economy over the business cycle calls for government stabilization policy. Under the circumstance of financial frictions, the entrepreneur`s net worth and the external risk premium as well as price markup are critical in transmission of monetary policy and the design of desirable interest rate rules. The paper shows that the economy with financial frictions is more vulnerable to the exogenous than the economy without financial frictions. The paper also shows that the external finance premium as well as entrepreneurs net worth play pivotal roles over business cycles. If the economy is hit by demand shocks such as preference shocks, it is desirable for the monetary authority to implement an interest rate rule that responds to financial market conditions as well as the inflation gap to stabilize the economy. The type of a simple, implementable, and optimal monetary policy depends on both the type of shocks and the persistence of shocks that hit the economy. Finally, it shows that the interest rate rule reacting to financial market and inflation gap is best, while the interest rate rule responding to the financial market and output gap is worst among the considered simple interest rules under the financial friction circumstances.

은행그룹화와 통화정책

양동욱,홍승제 한국은행 2004 經濟分析 Vol.10 No.2

1980년대 중반 이후 세계 금융산업은 합병대형화 등으로 그룹화되는 추세를 지속하여 왔으며 우리나라의 경우도 외환위기 이후 금융구조조정과 금융기관의 경쟁력 강화를 위한 인수합병 등으로 금융그룹화가 급속히 진전되었다. 이러한 금융그룹화는 금융기관의 효율성 및 경쟁력 제고 등 기대효과가 있는 반면 대형화된 금융기관의 시장지배력 강화와 금융시장의 집중도 상승 등으로 중앙은행의 효율적인 통화정책 운용을 어렵게 할 가능성도 제기되고 있다. 본고는 금융그룹화가 통화정책에 미치는 영향을 파급경로, 수행여건 및 환경 등 크게 세 부문으로 나눠 이론적 가능성과 연구결과를 각각 살펴본 후 우리나라 은행산업의 그룹화가 통화정책의 유효성에 미친 영향을 실증 분석하였다. 분석결과 아직까지 은행의 그룹화가 통화정책 수행을 현저히 제약하는 수준은 아닌 것으로 분석되었으나 어느 정도 영향을 미치는 부분도 있는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 통화파급경로에 있어서 그룹화에 의한 금융시장집중도 상승은 금리경로를 통한 통화정책 파급효과를 다소 감소시키는 것으로 나타난 반면 은행대출경로와 대차대조표경로 효과에 대한 영향은 분명하지 않았다. 또한 은행그룹화가 시스템리스크 상승을 초래하여 통화정책 환경에 미치는 영향도 뚜렷하지 않은 것으로 나타났으나 앞으로 초대형은행이 도산위험에 직면할 경우 정책대응의 어려움은 더욱 커질 수 있을 것으로 예상된다. 따라서 앞으로 은행뿐 아니라 금융산업의 그룹화 진전이 통화정책에 미치는 영향을 예의 주시하는 한편 금융그룹화가 통화정책의 효율적 수행을 저해하지 않도록 하기 위해서는 관련 규제와 제도를 지속적으로 정비해 나가야 할 것이다. Since mid-1980's global financial industry has been consolidated via merger and enlargement. After financial crisis financial consolidation has been developed rapidly also in Korea due to merger and acquisition for restructuring financial sector and enhancing competitiveness of financial institutions. It has been pointed that financial consolidation, in the form of reinforced market governing power and increased concentration in financial market, might harm efficiency in operating monetary policy by central banks while it has beneficial effects such as enhancing efficiency and competitiveness of financial institutions. This paper surveys recent theories and studies on the effect of financial consolidation on monetary policy in three aspects-transmission channel, performance condition and financial circumstances and then analyses the effectiveness of monetary policy. The result shows that financial consolidation has some adverse effects on monetary policy though not significant. In particular, the effectiveness of monetary policy through interest rate channel has been reduced due to the result while that through banking loan channel and balance sheet channel seem to be ambiguous. The effect of increasing financial market concentration through increased systematic risk on circumstances of monetary policy is also found to be ambiguous. However, the difficulty in conducting monetary policy confronted with huge banks' bankruptcy seems to be increasing in the future. As a result, the effect of consolidation in financial industry on monetary policy needs careful attention, and, at the same time, financial regulation and system must be improved so that efficient performance of monetary policy would not be hindered by financial consolidation.

시장경쟁질서와 기업의 재무정책

손판도 ( Pando Sohn ),송영수 ( Youngso Song ),최칠선 ( Chilsun Choi ) 한국질서경제학회 2015 질서경제저널 Vol.18 No.3

This study investigates whether market competition order affects corporate financial policy and also the interaction between market competition and financial constraint by using Korean manufacturing firms listed in KOSPI market over 1981 to 2013. Based on the previous dynamic cash model from the theoretical background, the industry equilibrium provides the evidence of the effect of market competition on financial cash or liquidity policy. This model also finds that financial constrained firms use cash reserve withstand liquidity shortfalls during recession economy condition. This fact implies that market competition order triggers two contrasting effects. First, it increases the option value to remain active in the market, which means reinforcing the precautionary motive for holding cash or liquidity asset. Second, it induces the firms to reduce leverage and interest payments on debt. Thus lower debt payments require a smaller amount of cash or liquidity reserve, other things being equal. Although the overall effect is potentially ambiguous, under realistic conditions, cash increases with competition. Therefore, this prior study suggests that competition can explain the increase in cash holdings and exacerbate the negative relation between leverage and cash in this paper. In summarizing all of results from theoretical and empirical predictions, we find that product market competition order affects positively the financial policy, such as the level of cash holdings or liquidity policy, and also firms with higher financial constraint and higher product market competition order tends to increase the cash holdings or liquidity policy. Based on this prediction from model, we confirm that the results predicted from model support the evidence from real data using sample of non-financial firms listed in KOSPI market. To find more strong results, we use several various proxies for product market competition like number of competitive firm in a same industry, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), and excess of price-cost margin (EPCM), and financial constraint like SA Index, and then confirm the predicted result from the model. Also we implement various estimation methods, which are OLS and fixed effect model to find the evidence predicted in the model. We find in empirical test as follows: First, we show that order of product market competition by using number of firms, HHI, and EPCM affect negatively the cash holdings or liquidity policy, which are all financial policies. This empirical result is inconsistent with predicted result from the model. This evidence implies that Korean non-financial firms tend to decrease the cash holdings as the product market competition increases. Thus we guess that there is a unique characteristic of Korean non-financial firms in terms of the product market competition and the cash holdings. Second, we find that the intensity of product market competition increases with the intensity of financial constraints, which is consistent with the predicted result from the model. Third, we also find that the effect of intensity of market competition on cash holdings increases with the intensity of financing constraints, which is consistent with the predicted result from the model. We conclude that the empirical evidences found in this paper are robust regardless of several competition measures and estimation methods. These findings suggest that the intensity of product market competition and financial constraint play a key role in decision making of firm’s financial policies such as cash holdings policy or liquidity policy in terms of firm operation.

Crise Financeira Global e Política Macroprudencial no Brasil

최대원 ( Choi Dae-won ) 한국포르투갈-브라질학회 2011 포르투갈-브라질 연구 Vol.8 No.1

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, international financial institutions and regional multilateral banks have reviewed their approach to financial stability from microprudential to macroprudential to address systemic risks inherent in the global monetary, exchange and reserve system. Basel III has strengthened liquidity and leverage provisions with revision of microprudential framework of Basel II. Similarly, IMF and FSB have embarked on a new debate of financial regulatory framework centered on macroprudential policy. While its merits have been well documented, real effective policy tools and harmonized regulatory framewok have yet to be further elaborated. The present paper have reviewed theoretical aspects of financial regulation and attempted to make contribution to the current debate by undertaking a preliminary review of the case of Brazil on IOF- imposto sobre operações financeiras and related macroprudential measures which attracted much attention of policymakers on financial stability. Rrecurrent quantitative easing and its effect on capital inflows, carry trade and macroeconomic instability have recently led the Brazilian authority to implement enhanced macroprudential measures with capital control. While these macroprudential measures were considered endogenous to external capital flows, a close examination in this paper has revealed that the macroprudential framwork has long been embedded in the national financial system of Brazil since its late industrialization via desenvolvimentismo and integration into the international financial system to tap the foreign savings. The paper contends that the current financial crisis has induced a more systematic macroprudential measures which may suggest an exogenous macroprudential policy facing recurrent external shock. This argument has been corroborated by the latest conrtributions of BIS, IMF and FSB on countercyclical and cross-sectional policies for regulation and supervision of banking sector, capital market, shadow banking system and derivatives market for financial stability. Through a preliminary review of macroprudential policy in Brazil which became the world’s fifth or sixth largest economy, the paper contends that efforts need to be further strengthened on macrosystemic framework for global financial regulations, should the normatory parameters of financial reform be finely calibrated without giving detriment to capital account convertibility and financial innovation for capital flows and efficient resources allocation in emerging market economies.