The Crisis, Mobility and Dualization in the Korean Labour Market

Byung You Cheon 한국사회학회 2014 韓國社會學 Vol.48 No.3

This paper is to empirically test dualization of the Korean labour market in terms of employment adjustments and labor turnover during the crisis. How have the employment adjustments following the crises occurred between permanent and temporary worker groups in the Korean labour market? Is the probability of job loss higher in workers of weaker positions such as contact-based temporary workers? Should the higher incidence of contract-based temporary workers have lowered the employment adjustments of permanent workers? The results show that the effects of the crisis on the employment adjustments were more focused on temporary workers. The employment volatility and relative job loss rate of temporary workers have increased during and after the crisis. And, the hypothesis that the contract-based temporary workers become increasingly working as a buffer for job security of the permanent workers in the crisis is accepted.

SENIORITY PAY , TURNOVER AND JOB TRAINING IN KOREA(JEL Classification : J41)

CHEON, BYUNG YOU 한국경제학회 1998 The Korean Economic Review Vol.14 No.1

The Comparison of Wage Structure of Korea and Japan

(Byung You Cheon),(Kyun Sung Chong) 한국노동경제학회 1997 노동경제논집 Vol.20 No.2

N/A

인공지능(AI)의 고용과 임금 효과

전병유 ( Byung-you Cheon ),정준호 ( Jun-ho Jeong ),장지연 ( Ji-yeun Chang ) 한국경제통상학회 2022 경제연구 Vol.40 No.1

This study focuses on the employment and wage effects of the technological characteristics of AI. Recently, AI job effect research is conducted in a way that links the technical characteristics of AI to ‘task’ or ‘ability’ among job characteristics, or connects ‘patent’ information and job information. This study created AI Occupational Exposure (AIOE) by occupation based on the linking metrics between AI applications and ability variables. By applying AIOE to the Employment Insurance DB, we estimated the employment and wage effects of AI in the 2015-2019 region-occupation cell as an observation unit. The result is that AI significantly increases employment, but does not have a significant effect on wage increase. However, the wage premium of AI was significant and large. In particular, it was also found that textrelated AI-apps have a significant (+) effect on employment and wages while image-related AI-apps have not. Estimation was also made by class according to educational background, wage, and knowledge level. AI has a significant (+) effect on employment increase and wage increase in the low-education, low-middle-wage level. However, the wage premium of AI was found to be significant and high in the high educational and high wage level. Currently, AI technology in Korea does not act as a factor in deepening the polarization of the labor market, but since the wage premium effect of AI is clear and large in the high-education-high-wage class, it is judged that AI technology is likely to deepen the polarization of the labor market in the future.

복지국가의 인센티브 문제에 관한 연구

전병유(Byung You Cheon) 한국사회정책학회 2013 한국사회정책 Vol.20 No.2

이 글에서는 북구 복지국가 모델이 경제적 인센티브와 윤리-규범의 문제로 인하여 장기적으로 지속가능하기 어렵다는 경제학적 논리를 비판적으로 검토하였다. 형평을 목적으로 하는 정치적 기획인 복지국가의 주된 경제적 기능은 위험에 대한 사회적 보호 즉 보험 기능이다. 복지국가는 사적 보험의 실패를 극복하여 인적자원과 혁신 투자를 촉진하는 효과를 가지지만, 기여와 분리된 조세 기반의 보편적 복지와 시장에서의 임금평등을 추구하는 복지국가는 잠재적으로 인센티브의 문제를 가질 수 있다. 그러나 스웨덴과 같은 북구 복지국가는 고용 중심의 제도 배열, 노동윤리와 급여규범 유지에 기여하는 제도·정책의 설계 · 운영, 격차 축소의 인센티브 메커니즘 형성, 교육에 대한 공적 투자와 사회보장과의 정합성 구축 등을 통해 이를 극복할 수 있었다. 북구 복지국가 모델은 인센티브-규범의 문제가 이론과 논리의 문제가 아니라 제도와 정책으로 대응 가능한 현실의 문제를 보여주는 현실적 사례라고 할 수 있다. This paper is to critically review the economic reasoning of non-sustainability of welfare state due to its intrinsic incentive problems and to see how the nordic welfare state responds to them. The welfare state as a political design of state to pursue equality has social insurance as its main economic function. It survives market failure of private insurance to contribute to human capital investment and industrial restructuring. The universal tax-financed welfare state, however, has the problem of tragedy of commons such as reduced work incentive and work ethics. But, the existing nordic welfare state overcomes it through employment-focused policy arrangements, maintenance of work ethics and benefits moral, incentive mechanism of wage-compression, public educational investment and its complementation with social security. The Nordic model shows that problems of incentive and moral are not about those of theory and reasoning, but about their reality which policies and institutions could respond to.

자산과 소득불평등의 총수요효과와 성장체제

전병유(Cheon, Byung You),정준호(Jeong, Jun Ho) 강원대학교 사회과학연구원 2016 사회과학연구 Vol.55 No.1

이 글은 전형적인 포스트케인지언의 수요체제 모형에 자산과 부채의 동학, 그리고 개인(가구)소득 불평등을 추가하여 이들의 총수요 효과를 분석하였다. Bhaduri and Marglin(1990) 모형을 확장한 Stockhammer and Wildauer(2015) 모형을 활용하여, 1999년-2014년까지 한국경제의 수요체제를 분석하였다. 외환위기 이후 한국경제는 기존의 연구들과 마찬가지로 대외부분을 고려하더라도 임금주도성장체제의 특성을 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 다만, 노동소득분배율의 개선이 소비를 증대시키는 전형적인 포스트케인지언의 경로를 따르기보다는 노동절약적인 투자 확대와 이를 통한 수출의 확대라는 경로를 따르는 것으로 나타났다. Stockhammer and Wildauer(2015)의 분석 결과와는 달리, 한국에서는 부채주도성장의 증거는 미약한 것으로 나타났다. 소득불평등이 소비를 증가시키는 ‘소비의 낙수효과(expenditure cascades)’ 현상이 나타났지만, 소득불평등 악화에 따른 투자 감소 효과가 더 큰 것으로 나타나 소득불평등 악화의 총수요 효과는 부(-)의 값을 가지는 것으로 나타났다. This paper focuses on aggregate demand effects of asset-debt dynamics and household income inequality in the typical post-keynesian model of demand regime. It analyzed the demand regime of Korean economy between 1990-2014, using the model of Stockhammer and Wildauer (2015) with the enlargement of Bhaduri and Marglin(1990) model, The result is that while the Korean economy has also wage-led growth regime, it drives not consumption growth, but export growth through labor-saving technology adoption. The evidence of debt-driven growth is found to be very weak in Korea, which is different from the result of Stockhammer and Wildauer(2015). Although the higher income inequality does not has effects of increasing consumption(expenditure cascades), the effects of reducing investments is larger, which means the total demand effects of higher inequality is proved to be negative.

한국 노동시장의 양극화에 관한 연구: 중간일자리 및 중간임금계층을 중심으로 / 논평 / 토론

전병유 ( Byung You Cheon ),김종면,이철희,김용진,신관호,정지만 한국금융연구원 2007 한국경제의 분석 Vol.13 No.2

This paper deals with the polarization of the labor market in Korea focusing on the middle-class of the labor market. The job polarization and the wage polarization have been examined between 1993 and 2006. The jobs are rank-ordered in the industry-by-occupation matrixes being indexed by earnings. The middle-level jobs are defined as 25~75% of the rank-ordered jobs in the distribution of individual workers in 1993. The middle-level wage earners are defined as those earning 67~133% of median wage each year. Not only the proportion of middle-level jobs decreased from 50% in 1993 to 41% in 2006, but also that of middle-level wage earners decreased from 47% in 2000 to 43% in 2006, which evidenced the polarization of the labor market in Korea during the last decade. The causes of the job and the wage polarization could be found from the side of labor-demand rather than from the labor-supply side. The major causes would be in the de-industrialization of the economy in terms of jobs. The large scale entries into the labor market of female and youth workforce are not the major causes of the polarization. The policy reponses to these polarizations will be to enhance the quality of low and middle level jobs as well as to generate the middle-level jobs.

유연안전성 담론과 전략에 대한 비판적 고찰

전병유 ( Byung You Cheon ) 한국산업노동학회 2016 산업노동연구 Vol.22 No.1

This paper is to critically review flexicurity dialogue and strategy and draw implications for labor market reform and social security system in Korea. While the so-called flexicurity strategy is to overcome hhe flexibilization at the margin, it is criticized for poor empirical evidences of its necessity and effectiveness, priority being given prior consideration for flexibility rather than security in its practice and application, and not being able to overcome labor market dualization. The social exchange of job protection and social protection is necessary for extending social security to unprotected areas of labor force, economic restructuring and technological development. For flexicurity strategy to succeed, however, low level of inequality in labor market, progressive social security system, provention of layoff by firms with moral hazards are necessary, and to establish effective social security system, establishing optimal EPL and considering individual‘s cultural mentality about security, particularly job security are very important. As an implication, Korea should try to reach optimal level of EPL and to establish proper social seucurity system step by step and simultaneously.

기획연구 : 외국의 시간제 근로 ; 네델란드에서의 시간제근로의 현황과 정책

전병유 ( Cheon Byung-You ) 한국산업노동학회 2011 산업노동연구 Vol.17 No.1

This paper is about the pail-time work and related polices in Netherland, which increased the employment rate for the past 30 years with part-time job creation. Netherland has been successful in making part-time ``good`` jobs. There were many factors which contributed to increaing part-time jobs such as market, institution, policies, and industrial relations. There was virtuous cycle between increase in the supply of female labor power and increase in the demand for part-time worker in the labor market. The policies were reinforced which protect part-time workers, introduced the incentive system which was favorable to part-time wokres, guaranteed the right to select working hours to workers. Particularly, the labor market, institutions and policies were created in the midst of the social dialogue. As the polder model has been persisted for almost 30 years, the switch to full-time work or long working-hour model would not be possible. As the paler model is a very specific model based on the Netherland`s own social conditions, it is not easy to copy and transplant in other countries.

동아시아경제의 성장 , 위기 , 조절의 메커니즘에 관한 비판적 연구

전병유(Byung You Cheon) 한국경제학회 1999 經濟學硏究 Vol.47 No.4

동아시아 특히 한국의 고도성장은 정부의 신용할당(금융억압)을 정책수단으로 하고, 대외지향(수출 주도)을 규율의 수단으로 하여 국가 주도의 투자조절(선별적 산업정책)을 통해 고도성장을 달성하는 메커니즘에 기초하였다. 이들이 서로 보완하고 규율하는 긍정적인 상호작용을 보장하는 조절메커니즘은 국가가 시장을 활용하여 자본을 규율하는 것을 기본으로 하였다. 한국경제의 위기는 이러한 기존의 조절 메커니즘이 그 보수적 성격 때문에 내부적으로 해체한 데서 발생한 것으로 이해하고자 하였다. 따라서, 한국경제개혁의 과제는 기존의 소유권 구조의 해체를 통한 새로운 인센티브 시스템의 구축으로 경제의 역동성과 생산력을 제고하며, 다양하고 효율적인 제도의 구축과 일관된 규칙에 근거한 정부정책을 통한 경제의 사전적 조절메커니즘을 강화하는 것을 핵심 과제로 해야 할 것이다. 이 글은 기존의 다양한 경제이론과 동아시아 연구를 비판적으로 검토함으로써 위와 같은 논리구성을 검증하였다.