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APEX-Paddy 모델을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 논벼 생산량 및 증발산량 변화 예측
최순군,김민경,정재학,최동호,허승오,Choi, Soon-Kun,Kim, Min-Kyeong,Jeong, Jaehak,Choi, Dongho,Hur, Seung-Oh 한국농공학회 2017 한국농공학회논문집 Vol.59 No.4
The global rise in atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration and its associated climate change have significant effects on agricultural productivity and hydrological cycle. For food security and agricultural water resources planning, it is critical to investigate the impact of climate change on changes in agricultural productivity and water consumption. APEX-Paddy model, which is the modified version of APEX (Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender) model for paddy ecosystem, was used to evaluate rice productivity and evapotranspiration based on climate change scenario. Two study areas (Gimjae, Icheon) were selected and the input dataset was obtained from the literature. RCP (Representitive Concentration Pathways) based climate change scenarios were provided by KMA (Korean Meteorological Administration). Rice yield data from 1997 to 2015 were used to validate APEX-Paddy model. The effects of climate change were evaluated at a 30-year interval, such as the 1990s (historical, 1976~2005), the 2025s (2011~2040), the 2055s (2041~2070), and the 2085s (2071~2100). Climate change scenarios showed that the overall evapotranspiration in the 2085s reduced from 10.5 % to 16.3 %. The evaporations were reduced from 15.6 % to 21.7 % due to shortend growth period, the transpirations were reduced from 0.0% to 24.2 % due to increased $CO_2$ concentration and shortend growth period. In case of rice yield, in the 2085s were reduced from 6.0% to 25.0 % compared with the ones in the 1990s. The findings of this study would play a significant role as the basics for evaluating the vulnerability of paddy rice productivity and water management plan against climate change.
가나의 기후변화 시나리오 상세화 및 미래기후 변동 평가
최순군,Eric Owusu Danquah,조재필,엽소진,김민경 한국국제농업개발학회 2022 한국국제농업개발학회 학술대회 Vol.2022 No.09
기후변화 시나리오는 기후변화로 인한 미래 영향을 평가하여 피해를 선제적으로 최소화하기 위한 기후변화 대응 및 적응정책 수립을 위한 과학적인 근거로 활용 되어 왔다. IPCC 6차 평가보고서(AR6)에 사용된 SSPs(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, 공통사회경제경로) 시나리오는 기존 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways, 대표농도경로) 시나리오에 사용된 복사강제력 개념과 함께 미래의 완화 와 적응 노력에 따른 5개의 사회경제 시나리오를 추가로 고려하였다. 가나는 국가 발전용량의 54%를 수력발전에 의존하고 있어 기후변화에 따른 강수량의 감소로 전력 부족을 경험하고 있다. 또한 강우특성의 변화로 인해 주요 작물인 카사바, 옥수수, 코코아의 생산량이 감소할 것으로 예측된다. 한편, IPCC 6차 보고서의 기 준 시나리오로 채택된 SSPs 시나리오는 5차 보고서에서 채택된 RCPs 시나리오에 비해 대기 중 CO2 농도 전망을 비관적으로 평가하고 있다. Business as usual(BAU) 시나리오(RCP8.5, SSP5-8.5)에 따르면 2050년대 CO2 농도는 RCPs 시나 리오의 경우 541 ppm, SSPs 시나리오는 565 ppm으로 SSPs 시나리오가 RCPs 시나 리오에 비해 대기중 CO2 농도 증가 속도가 빠른 것으로 전망하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기후변화 시나리오의 통계적 상세화 방법인 Simple Quantile Mapping(SQM)을 사용하여 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6) 18개 General Circulation Model(GCM)을 활용하여 가나지역의 미래기후 변동과 불 확실성을 평가하였다.
최순군,최진용,남원호,허승오,김학진,정선옥,한경화,Choi, Soon-Kun,Choi, Jin-Yong,Nam, Won-Ho,Hur, Seung-Oh,Kim, Hak-Jin,Chung, Sun-Ok,Han, Kyung-Hwa 한국농공학회 2012 한국농공학회논문집 Vol.54 No.3
Greenhouse cultivation has been increasing for high quality and four season crop production in South Korea. For the cultivation in a greenhouse, maintaining adequate soil moisture at each crop growth stage is quite important for yield stability and quality while the behavior of moisture movement in the soil has complexity and adequate moisture conditions for crops are vary. Drip irrigation systems have been disseminated in the greenhouse cultivation due to advantages including irrigation convenience and efficiency without savvy consideration of the soil moisture redistribution. This study aims to evaluate soil moisture movement of drip irrigation according to the soil moisture uniformity assessment. Richards equation and finite difference scheme were adapted to simulate soil moisture behavior in soil. Soil container experiment was conducted and the model was validated using the data from the experiment. Two discharge rate (1 ${\ell}/hr$ and 2 ${\ell}/hr$) and three spaces between the emitters (10 cm, 20 cm, and 30 cm) were used for irrigation system evaluation. Christiansen uniformity coefficient was also calculated to assess soil moisture redistribution uniformity. The results would propose design guidelines for drip irrigation system installation in the greenhouse cultivation.
최순군,정재학,조재필,허승오,최동호,김민경 한국기후변화학회 2018 한국기후변화학회지 Vol.9 No.2
Evapotranspiration is a key element in designing and operating agricultural hydraulic structures. The profound effect of climate change to local agro‐hydrological systems makes it inevitable to study the potential variability in evapotranspiration rate in order to develop policies on future agricultural water management as well as to evaluate changes in agricultural environment. The APEX‐Paddy model was used to simulate local evapotranspiration responses to climate change scenarios. Nine Global Climate Models(GCMs) downscaled using a non‐parametric quantile mapping method and a Multi‐Model Ensemble method(MME) were used for an uncertainty analysis in the climate scenarios. Results indicate that APEX‐Paddy and the downscaled 9 GCMs reproduce evapotranspiration accurately for historical period(1976~2005). For future periods, simulated evapotranspiration rate under the RCP 4.5 scenario showed increasing trends by ‐1.31%, 2.21% and 4.32% for 2025s(2011~2040), 2055s(2041~2070) and 2085s(2071~2100), respectively, compared with historical(441.6 mm). Similar trends were found under the RCP 8.5 scenario with the rates of increase by 0.00%, 4.67%, and 7.41% for the near‐term, mid‐term, and long‐term periods. Monthly evapotranspiration was predicted to be the highest in August, July was the month having a strong upward trend while. September and October were the months showing downward trends in evapotranspiration are mainly resulted from the shortening of the growth period of paddy rice due to temperature increase and stomatal closer as ambient CO2 concentration increases in the future.