Oil and Gas Markets in the Middle East and Its Security Implications

전광호 명지대학교(서울캠퍼스) 중동문제연구소 2013 중동문제연구 Vol.12 No.3

Global oil and gas markets are forecast to change significantly over the next 25 years, affecting the economies of the Middle East. This paper uses Buzan and Wæver’s regional security complex framework as a framework to analyze the effect of changes on Gulf security at the domestic, state-to-state, inter-regional, and global levels. It predicts that the power relationships and patterns of enmity and amity within the Gulf security sub-complex will not be significantly changed. At the global level, however, the rise in Indian and particularly Chinese interdependence with the Gulf will diminish the effectiveness of the USA’s penetration of the region. Most significantly, the collapse of Bahrain’s and Oman’s incomes will result in significant threats to, and possibly violent uprisings against, their ruling regimes.

External Intervention and Democratisation in Myanmar: A Policy Evaluation

전광호 경희대학교(국제캠퍼스) 국제지역연구원 2008 아태연구 Vol.15 No.2

This paper will analyse how and to what extend have international initiatives to foster democratic change in Myanmar failed? The method adopted will be to analyse the policy of different actors of the international scene toward Myanmar. Several methods for promoting democracy exist. Apart from being persuasive or coercive, methods to promote democracy can be of three types: political, economic or military. Sanctions comprise essentially economic sanctions and they can be conceptualised as a means of exerting what is called coercive diplomacy. In 2003, as a consequence of the Depayin incident, the US decided to strengthen its sanction policy toward Myanmar. Regarding the goal of a change of regime or any democracychange of behavior from he military Junta, no significant results can be seen. The USpolicy of sanctions toward Myanmar suffers several shortcomings. The credibility of US sanctions is especially undermined by the attitude of ASEAN countries which oppose sanctions and are tenants of a policy of constructive engagement. There is no clear consensus among international actors about how to act toward Myanmar and this clearly impacts on US sanctions. The first EU Common Position adopted on Myanmar dates from 1996, It encompasses measures of arm embargo, suspension of defence cooperation, suspension of bilateral aid other than strictly humanitarian one, visa ban on members of the military regime, members of the government, senior military and security officers and members of their families and a suspension of highgovernmental visits to Myanmar. A general fallacy of the EU policy toward Myanmar is that it lacks a profound analysis of the special context within which the country finds itself. The EU policy is characterized by an underestimation of the transitional challenges that Myanmar needs to confront. In 1993, Myanmarsignaled for the first time its interest in becoming a member of ASEAN. The policy of ASEAN toward Myanmar has been characterized as one of constructive engagement. ASEAN support for Myanmar caused strain in relations with ASEAN western partners. It is indeed credible that Myanmar does not wish to be an embarrassment for ASEAN. What are therefore, some hints of policy options that might reveal more effective toward Myanmar? The international community desperately needs a coherent Myanmar policy. Assistance is central in building the conditions necessary for a sustainable democratic government. This paper will analyse how and to what extend have international initiatives to foster democratic change in Myanmar failed? The method adopted will be to analyse the policy of different actors of the international scene toward Myanmar. Several methods for promoting democracy exist. Apart from being persuasive or coercive, methods to promote democracy can be of three types: political, economic or military. Sanctions comprise essentially economic sanctions and they can be conceptualised as a means of exerting what is called coercive diplomacy. In 2003, as a consequence of the Depayin incident, the US decided to strengthen its sanction policy toward Myanmar. Regarding the goal of a change of regime or any democracychange of behavior from he military Junta, no significant results can be seen. The USpolicy of sanctions toward Myanmar suffers several shortcomings. The credibility of US sanctions is especially undermined by the attitude of ASEAN countries which oppose sanctions and are tenants of a policy of constructive engagement. There is no clear consensus among international actors about how to act toward Myanmar and this clearly impacts on US sanctions. The first EU Common Position adopted on Myanmar dates from 1996, It encompasses measures of arm embargo, suspension of defence cooperation, suspension of bilateral aid other than strictly humanitarian one, visa ban on members of the military regime, members of the government, senior military and security officers and members of their families and a suspension of highgovernmental visits to Myanmar. A general fallacy of the EU policy toward Myanmar is that it lacks a profound analysis of the special context within which the country finds itself. The EU policy is characterized by an underestimation of the transitional challenges that Myanmar needs to confront. In 1993, Myanmarsignaled for the first time its interest in becoming a member of ASEAN. The policy of ASEAN toward Myanmar has been characterized as one of constructive engagement. ASEAN support for Myanmar caused strain in relations with ASEAN western partners. It is indeed credible that Myanmar does not wish to be an embarrassment for ASEAN. What are therefore, some hints of policy options that might reveal more effective toward Myanmar? The international community desperately needs a coherent Myanmar policy. Assistance is central in building the conditions necessary for a sustainable democratic government.

Legacy of the Principles of People’s War in China’s Military Modernization

전광호 육군사관학교 화랑대연구소 2013 한국군사학논집 Vol.69 No.3

Mao Tse-tung led the Chinese people and established Communist China in 1949. He served as nation’s top leader until he died on September 9, 1976. Mao was credited with commanding the Long March and leading the Communist Party of China to victory against the Kuomintang in the Chinese Civil War; defeating an assortment of powerful regional warlords; and helping to deter the Japanese invasion. Mao's military thoughts, his strategic and tactical principles of war, notably the “People's War” theory is one of most important guiding principles for the Red Army commanders. This paper is about his“People’s War”theory and how it has been accepted and led military modernization in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Mao believed that war is the continuation of politics, dominated by one's interests. He emphasized the role of the Army and the People as the foundation of victory. At the operational level, Mao advocated “seizing the initiative” as the most important principle even in a defensive posture, based on an approach that “you fight in your way and we fight in ours”. China's current military modernization is also based on Mao's military thoughts, but pays more attention to the effect of modern technology. Being able to integrate Mao's traditional ideas and the contemporary realities of new concepts and modern technologies will be the critical challenge to China's military commanders today.

빛과 삶의 조화 : 프로방스

전광호 프랑스문화예술학회 1999 프랑스문화예술연구 Vol.1 No.-

Lumiere, couleur et odeur, ces trois elements les plus caracteristiques du paysage provencal impregnent la toile de fond de la litterature et de l'art en Provence. Le bleu limpide du ciel et de la mer, la couleur vive du sol et des champs, puis l'air fort odorant de l'atmosphere provencale, tout cela est capture dans le tableau de Van Gogh et n'est pas sans rapport avec l'esthetique de Cezanne. Mistral, Daudet, Giono modelent leurs personnages a l'image des paysages provencaux, tandis que l'olivier, symbole de cette terre paradoxale a la fois aride et fertile incarne a nos yeux, tel un personnage vivant, le mieux le climat provencal. Les villes ou villages provecaux, qui organisent chacun leur festival plein de charme en couleur locale, gardent les traces de ces ecrivains et artistes.

Al-Qaeda through the Lens of Clausewitz’s ‘Trinity’

전광호 육군사관학교 화랑대연구소 2014 한국군사학논집 Vol.70 No.2

This study uses Clausewitz’s ‘paradoxical trinity’ as an analytical tool to study Al-Qaeda; a non-state actor employing terrorism to conduct a global insurgency, motivated by ideological, emotional and political factors and America’s Global War on Terror strategy. It has been just about as challenging a test as any of Clausewitz’s critics could possibly muster. The paper reveals significant differences in where Clausewitz’s dominant tendencies of war act and their relative importance from the original context within which the theory was written. Despite this, little has been found that challenges the central tenants of his trinitarian theory, but significant concerns have been raised regarding America’s failure to grasp the complexities surrounding Al-Qaeda’s campaign, which may lead to strategic failure.

國際關係的 側面에서의 環境問題 考察

전광호 慶熙大學校 大學院 院友會 1992 高凰論集 Vol.11 No.-

Ethnically Divided Societies and the Role of Peace Building Education Bosnia and Herzegovina as a Case Study

전광호 한국유럽학회 2010 유럽연구 Vol.28 No.1

국제사회 에서는 인종적으로 분리된 사회에서 교육이 사회 불안이나 폭력적 투쟁에 대한 촉매제로서 역할을 한다는 것에 대한 우려가 증가하고 있다. 본 논문은 교육이 인종적 정체성의 구성, 동원, 그리고 정치화에 대한 주요한 역할을 한다라는 점을 전제한다. 그 내용과 구조를 통하여, 교육은 특정 인종 집단의 특권을 추구하는 정치 행위자들에 의해 지배되고 조종되기도 하며 사회의 다른 집단에게 해악을 미치기도 한다. 보스니아 헤르체코비나의 고도로 정치화되고 인종 차별적인 전후 교육 시스템은 초등과 중등교육을 망라한 정규 교육에서의 인종 정치의 영향을 연구하는데 있어 적절한 사례 연구를 제공한다. 본 논문에서는 교육 시스템의 주요 논점을 평가하고, 국제 사회의 주도로 시작된 교육개혁이 만족할만한 성과를 거두고 있는가에 대해 논의할 것이다. There is increasing concern within the international community that education can act as a catalyst for social unrest or even violent conflict in societies divided along ethnic lines. This paper will argue that education is a primary site of construction, mobilisation, and politicisation of ethnic identity. Through its content and structure, education can be controlled and manipulated by political actors seeking to protect the rights and privileges of their constituent ethnic group, often to the detriment of other groups in society. The highly politicised and segregated post-war education system in Bosnia and Herzegovina provides a relevant case study for examining the impact of ethnic politics on formal education at the primary and secondary school levels. Key aspects of the education system will be discussed, and the degree of success of educational reforms initiated by international community will be evaluated.

빛과 삶의 조화 : 프로방스의 자연과 문화 예술

전광호 프랑스문화예술학회 1999 학술발표회 연구자료집 Vol.- No.1

반테러리즘에 대한 평화적 해결논의와무력의 사용

전광호 경희대학교(국제캠퍼스) 국제지역연구원 2007 아태연구 Vol.14 No.2

Since the creation of the International Law, the issue of the peaceful settlement of disputes has attracted the attention of the international community. And with the creation of the United Nations and the adoption of its charter, which places an obligation to states for the pacific settlement of disputes, this idea was closer to the realisation. But, the world division during the Cold War era led these efforts to a stalemate. After its end, the international community entered into a new era of co‐operation and development. The belief of a multilateral international system in which states would resolve their disputes by peaceful means with respect to the fundamental principles of International Law, was widely spread. Furthermore, since then conflict prevention has been recognized for its effectiveness by the international community. However, the 9/11 terrorist attacks marked the beginning of a new era in the international relations. They challenged the international environment of security affairs and triggered a debated over the effectiveness of the existing international legal order. One year after the attacks the US administration published its first National Security Strategy in which it drew the attention of the international community toward new threats such as weapons of mass destruction and terrorism and envisaged a new future for the International Law governing the use of force and the right to self‐defence. For years these issues were, and should be still, regulated by the provisions of the UN Charter, which crystallize the customary law. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact that the US NSS (US National Security Strategy) could have if adopted by the majority of stated on the obligation for the pacific settlement of disputes. The main question the paper posses is the prospect for the peaceful resolution of conflicts in a supposed era of unilateral recourse to force, justified by the special character of modern threats posed to the international community. A related issue that would be investigated is the prospect for conflict prevention and the role of United Nations in this field under the new international legal order that the US NSS envisaged. To this end, the focus will be on the existing international legal framework of the peaceful settlement of disputes, with reference to the International Law of the use of force and conflict prevention, through the UN charter as well as other sources, such as the Manila Declaration and the Friendly Relation Declaration of the United Nations General Assembly. And this paper is devoted to the US foreign policy after the attacks in the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon and the development of the so‐called Bush Doctrine of preemptive self‐defence. 현대 국제법 체계의 등장과 함께 갈등의 평화적 해결이라는 이슈는 국제사회의 큰 주목을 받아왔다. 특히 유엔의 성립과 갈등의 평화적 해결을 명시한 유엔 헌장의 채택으로 이러한 이슈는 더욱 현실적인 의제로 국제사회에 등장 한 것으로 볼 수 있다. 그러나 냉전 시기를 통하여 세계의 양분화 현상은 이러한 노력들이 결코 간단한 선언적 차원의 문제가 아님을 실증적으로 보여주었다. 그 후 냉전의 종식과 함께 국제사회는 새로운 협력과 발전의 시대로 접어 들었다. 세계의 각 국가들이 다극화된 국제체제에서 분쟁을 평화적으로 해결한다는 국제법의 기본 정신을 받아 들이는 것은 지극히 당위적인 결론이었으며, 분쟁 예방의 개념은 국제사회에 더욱 깊이 뿌리 내리게 되었다. 그러나 9/11 테러는 국제관계에 있어 새로운 시대에 있어 평화적 분쟁해결의 개념 자체와 그 실질적인 효용성에 관한 근본적인 논쟁을 촉발 시켰다. 국제사회가 대량살상무기와 테러리즘이라는 새로운 위협에 주목하면서부터 국제법은 무력의 사용을 통제해야 한다는 당위성과, 반면 국가의 자위권을 인정해야만 한다는 모순된 의제들에 직면 하였다. 이 글의 목적은 미국 국가안보전략에 있어 갈등의 평화적 해결이 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것이다. 따라서 이 글에서는 현대 국제사회가 직면한 특정 위협에 대하여 특정한 시기에 무력에 의한 평화적 분쟁 해결이 가능한 것인가에 관해 고찰하려 한다. 나아가 새로운 국제법의 질서 하에서 미국 국가안보전략과 분쟁예방의 가능성, 그에 수반한 유엔의 역할에 대해 분석할 것이다. 끝으로 평화적 갈등해결을 위한 현존하는 국제법규, 유엔헌장과 이의 후속조치라고 할 수 있는 마닐라선언, UN Declaration on Friendly Relations 등을 통한 분쟁예방에서의 무력 사용이라는 민감한 이슈에 대해 살펴보고, 9/11 이후 미국의 대외정책, 특히 부시 독트린으로 불리는 예방적 자위권의 문제에 대해 논하려 한다.

Jus ad Bellum and Jus in Bello: Changing Concepts of Military Ethics and International Law

전광호 전북대학교 부설법학연구소 2014 法學硏究 Vol.42 No.-

Contemporary conflicts are inherently complex; unconstrained by geography, and with amultitude of actors, an asymmetric morality exists between belligerents. Within this changingcontext the validity of the ‘just war’ theory has been questioned. This paper examines the justwar theory with a view to determining its validity to modern-day realities. It demonstrates thatthe tradition has the potential to evolve and that the concepts of proportionality and distinctionremain central. It explores the conceptual and practical difficulties of distinguishing betweencombatants and non-combatants, and demonstrates that the relevance of the just war theory liesin grasping the underlying fundamentals and applying them appropriately.