아프리카돼지열병 뉴스감성이 육류 가격에 미치는 영향분석

순병민,김원성 한국농업경제학회 2022 農業經濟硏究 Vol.63 No.1

The meat market behavior has been studied typically based on the price and income effect. Recently, unstructured data have been generated from big data analysis. Therefore, our study generates a sentiment index about African Swine Fever(ASF) and estimates the impact of the change in the ASF sentiment index on the Korean meat market. Word2Vec technique, one of the Neural Network Language Model(NNLM), is used to generate the ASF sentiment index. Moreover, we decompose the ASF sentiment index into its positive and negative changes. Using this ASF sentiment index, we build a non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) to estimate how the positive and negative ASF sentiment index sensitively causes pork, beef, and chicken prices. The results show that pork and beef prices are more sensitive to the positive ASF sentiment index changes than the negative ASF sentiment index. Our study is the first trial to study the meat market involving sentiment analysis to the best of our knowledge. We expect that developed sentiment analysis will generate animal disease sentiment and help understand the response of animal disease sentiment in the Korean meat market.

미·중 무역마찰이 한국 대두시장에 미치는 영향 분석

순병민 한국농촌경제연구원 2020 수시연구과제 Vol.2020 No.6

Interrelationships Among Environmental Regulations, Technological Innovations, and Productivity in South Korea

순병민,Dong Won Shin 한국환경정책학회 2022 環境政策 Vol.30 No.-

Because environmental policies have increasingly become stricter in response to relevant challenges, policymakers are now paying more attention to regulations that affect productivity. Focusing on conditions in Korea, this study used the Granger causality test to investigate causal relationships between environmental regulations, technological innovation, and productivity. The main results indicate that productivity is influenced by (1) technological innovation and (2) the innovation results from strengthened environmental regulations in separate sectors (i.e., manufacturing and non-manufacturing). These findings highlight some policy implications. As the environmental protection expenditure increases due to environmental regulations, the government and companies increase the number of R&D workers and spend more on technological innovation. Meanwhile, a suitable circumstance must be established to generate product and process innovations. The government and companies should make investments to construct this circumstance in response to environmental regulations. Finally, because regulations and innovations change productivity slowly, it is important to engage in long-term environmental policy projects.

Impact of a reduction in the quality of Shine Muscat on the grape variety market using the Armington model

순병민,조수민,김성훈 충남대학교 농업과학연구소 2021 Korean Journal of Agricultural Science Vol.48 No.4

We devised a grape variety model to estimate the impact of lowering the Shine Muscat quality level on the grape market. Shine Muscat has become a popular grape variety in Korea. Accordingly, the area devoted to the harvesting of Shine Muscat has increased dramatically since 2016. Our study examines how a reduction in the quality of Shine Muscat affects other grapes such as Campbell Early, giant peak, and Muscat Bailey A (MBA). The Armington model was used to impose consumer preferences and product differentiation assumptions. We found that a decrease in the consumer preference for Shine Muscat realized by lowering the quality of Shine Muscat largely reduces the price of this variety. Also, the prices of other grape varieties fell via a substitute effect. Moreover, if grape varieties were more differentiated, the reduction in the price of Shine Muscat would be greater, while the decreases in the prices of other grape varieties would be smaller. These results imply that farmers of Shine Muscat must continue with quality management efforts to avoid the negative effect of changing consumer behavior with regard to Shine Muscat against a reduction in its quality. Our model introduces a product differentiation model for the fruit market and helps policymakers and farmers understand the impact of changing market conditions in the fruit market.

미·중 무역마찰이 한국 대두시장에 미치는 영향 분석

순병민 한국농촌경제연구원 2020 한국농촌경제연구원 기타연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

이 연구는 최근 미·중 무역마찰의 장기화로 인한 국내 대두시장에 대한 영향 분석을 국제대두모형을 구축하여 실시하였으며, 최근 코로나19 전염병 여파를 함께 고려하여 확률적 모형을 통한 시장 불확실성하에서의 국내 대두시장 영향 분석을 나타내고 대응방안을 함께 모색하였다. 이를 위해 미·중 무역마찰 지속을 베이스라인으로 설정하고, 미·중 무역합의 이행에 대한 시나리오 분석을 실시하였다. 최근 코로나19 여파는 심각한 경제 위축으로 이어지고 있기 때문에 미·중 무역마찰과 코로나19 여파를 함께 고려한 시나리오 분석을 실시하였다. 끝으로 시장 불확실성하에서 예상 가능한 국내 대두 가격과 수입량을 살펴봤다. 분석 결과, 미·중 무역합의가 충실히 이행될 때 국내 대두 수입 감소가 이루어지고 특히 코로나19 여파를 함께 고려한다면 감소폭이 더욱 큰 것으로 나타났다. 국내 대두 가격은 코로나19를 고려하지 않은 미·중 무역합의 이행으로 상승하지만, 코로나19 여파로 소비 위축이 되면서 무역합의가 이행되더라도 가격이 하락세로 전환된다. 코로나19 여파로 미국과 중국의 무역마찰이 완화될 조짐이 보이지 않는다면 국내 대두 가격 하락폭은 더욱 커지는 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 미·중 무역합의 이행 및 코로나19 여파로 인한 소비 위축으로 국내 대두 가격 변동성은 더욱 커지는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구 결과를 토대로 미·중 무역마찰과 코로나19 사태로 인해 국내 대두뿐만 아니라 국제곡물 가격 하락에 따른 대응 정책이 필요할 것으로 보인다. 또한 국내 대두 가격 변동성 확대는 다른 곡물 가격 변동성 확대로 이어질 수 있기 때문에 가격 리스크를 최소화시킬 수 있는 정책이 마련되어야 할 것으로 사료된다.

미·중 무역마찰과 코로나19로 인한 국내 대두시장 영향분석

순병민 한국무역연구원 2020 무역연구 Vol.16 No.6

This study examines the impact of the U.S.-China trade dispute and COVID-19 on the Korean soybean market. Design/Methodology/Approach A bilateral trade soybean model considered the Armington and spatial equilibrium approaches is used to analyze scenarios: (1) Removing China’s retaliatory tariff on US soybean without COVID-19, (2) Removing China’s retaliatory tariff on US soybean with COVID-19, and (3) No change in retaliatory tariff on US soybean with COVID-19. These scenario results are compared with the baseline that the U.S.-China trade dispute is in place continuously. Findings The results show that removing China’s retaliatory tariff decreases domestic soybean imports and rises prices in Korea. Moreover, if we take COVID-19 into account, the decrease in domestic soybean imports is relatively larger and COVID-19 falls the domestic soybean price because of the decrease in domestic consumption. The soybean price impact of the U.S.-China trade dispute along with COVID-19 is larger than the U.S.-China trade dispute without COVID-19 in the absolute difference. If China eliminates tariff on US soybean with COVID-19, then the fall in domestic soybean imports is larger and the price is smaller. Research Implications This study provides the impact of the U.S.-China trade dispute with COVID-19 on the Korean soybean market. The results showing the price variation from the scenario analysis imply that the Korean agricultural market needs to be monitored because of the response in the agricultural market to shocks. Moreover, the model used for this study gives traders and policy makers a tool to analyze the Korean soybean market.

The Use of Price Elasticity to Estimate Future Volatilities in Stochastic Simulation: an Application to the Korean Rice Market

순병민,Patrick Westhoff,한석호,Wyatt Thompson 한국농촌경제연구원 2019 농촌경제 Vol.42 No.S

Stochastic methods, which random draws on selected exogenous variables of an economic model, generate outcomes for the endogenous variables, are used to capture enough potential outcomes. This stochastic output should reflect historical data in terms of variable levels and variation. Two methods to match historical variation are explored: 1) increasing the variance of error terms of either supply or demand equations causes higher variance in simulated price and quantity, and 2) more elastic demand decreases price variation and increases production variation. A Korean rice market model is used for this stochastic simulation process to test these ideas. The results imply that the elasticities can be used to fit or calibrate model variation to historical variation. The model adjusted by price elasticity provides the possible range of the Aggregate Measurement of Support (AMS). The result shows that there is no possibility of exceeding the total AMS. Our work begins to consider how to improve model performance relating variation, not just levels, thus enabling applied economists using this approach to speak more directly to concerns about market risk and uncertainty.

이상기후 현상이 시설채소 스마트팜 경제성에 미치는 영향

순병민,이현선,김가을,박선민,박종석,김성훈 한국농식품정책학회 2024 농업경영정책연구 Vol.51 No.1

This study addresses the significant impact of climate change on agriculture and the promotion of smart farms as a response in Korea. It identifies a gap in detailed analysis of smart farm production of institutional vegetables andtheir economic feasibility, as well as a lack of policy measures for stabilizing supply and demand. The research analyzes the economic value of using smart farms to combat abnormal climate conditions, examining Korea's current climate challenges, the status of facility-based vegetable production, and the need for smart farm expansion. It assesses the economic feasibility of expanding smart farm facilities and equipment, proposing measures to enhance the supply and demand stability of facility vegetables. The study finds that in weather disasters, smart farming benefits increase both in open field and facility cultivation. Droughts, causing production drops and price hikes in open field cultivation, further benefit farmers who have transitioned to smart farms. Similarly, those using smart farms in facility cultivation, less affected by drought, also experience production decreases leading to price increases. This study aims to evaluate the economic viability of smart farms for institutional vegetables in responding to climate irregularities.

공적분 분석과 시뮬레이션을 이용한 비관세조치 정량화: 한국 쇠고기 시장을 중심으로

순병민,한석호 한국무역연구원 2022 무역연구 Vol.18 No.3

Purpose This study quantifies the non-tariff measures on the Korean beef market using a cointegration test and simulation model. Design/Methodology/Approach This paper introduces a hybrid approach which combines cointegration analysis and a simulation model. We assume that there are sanitary and phytosanitary measures in the Korean beef market after banning U.S. beef in 2004. Hence, we use cointegration test results using domestic and U.S. beef prices to calibrate simulation model for the Korean beef market. The approach follows the steps of (1) cointegration tests, (2) a partial equilibrium model, and (3) calculating an Ad-valorem equivalent SPS measure. Findings The results show that the Ad-valorem equivalent SPS measure is 77%. This size is larger than the 55% derived by the traditional price gap approach. Research Implications This study provides a hybrid model to quantify an SPS measure. We take the Korean beef market as there could be non-tariff barriers after the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy event in 2004. Our study not only quantifies the NTM in the Korean beef market but also introduces a hybrid approach for quantifying the NTM. Hence, our approach can apply to other studies related to NTM.

How much do decoupled fixed direct payments affect Korean rice production?

순병민,서홍석 한국재정정책학회 2022 財政政策論集 Vol.24 No.4

A large body of literature examines the question of whether decoupled payments affect production. Our study focuses on analyzing the effect of decoupled fixed direct payments on Korean rice production. First, a mixed estimation is used to test two hypotheses regarding Korean agricultural subsidies: (1) Decoupled fixed direct payments affect rice area. (2) Fixed and variable direct payments have the same impact on rice areas. Second, we simulate the impact of fixed direct payments on farm income based on the results of the two hypotheses. Finally, we conduct two sensitivity tests: (1) an increase in the target price and (2) an increase in the fixed direct payment. Since domestic rice prices have continued to fall over time, our initial results show evidence that fixed direct payments lead to less rice harvested area reduction than would have otherwise occurred. Second, the simulation results show the impact of direct payments on areas dependent on the area’s relationship with fixed direct payments.