중국 부동산 시장 침체 요인 연구 – 부동산 정책변화와 ‘세 가지 레드라인(三道红线) 규제’ 영향을 중심으로 –

박진오 중국지역학회 2024 중국지역연구 Vol.11 No.3

중국의 부동산 산업은 1998년 주택 시장의 상품화, 시장화 조치 이후 빠른 속도로 확장을 거듭해왔다. 특히 경기 침체와 위기 국면 시마다 부동산을 주요 경기 회복 대응 수단으로 활용하면서 시장 규모가 확대되며 공급과잉과 가격 거품이 광범위하게 형성되었 다. 이와 같은 결과는 부동산 기업 등 공급 주체의 부채 의존적 경영구조와 무관하지 않으며, 대출 축소 등 건전성 제고를 위한 규제 조치가 시행되는 경우 단기 자금압박에 따른 채무불이행과 부도 위험에 그대로 드러날 수 있다. 이와 같은 현상을 고려, 최근 중국은 전체적인 시장 침체국면에도 불구하고 부동산발 시스템 위험 발생을 사전 예방하 는 데 주력하여왔다. 부동산 기업의 과도한 부채경영을 바로잡고 건전성 제고를 위해 실시한 ‘세 가지 레드라인(三道红线) 규제’도 이와 같은 위험 예방을 위한 조치로 분석된다. 본 연구는 이와 같은 부동산 부문 정책변화 내용 분석과 함께 동 규제 시행이 부동산 기업의 채무 상환능력에 미친 영향을 관련 핵심 지표들의 변화추이를 통해 검증함을 연구목적으로 하였다. 제3장에서 중국 부동산 시장의 개황과 부동산 부문 정책변화 내용을 살펴보았는데, 이 장에서는 그간 부동산으로의 지나친 신용자원 집중과 부동산 기업의 부채 의존적 경영구조, 특히 중국 민영기업의 부동산 산업과의 긴밀성과 규제 정책 시행 시 민영기업이 특히 취약성을 띠는 등 부동산과 관련한 여러 문제점이 궁극적으로 정책 당국의 부동산 부문에 대한 위험 인식과 함께 관련 정책 기조 변화로 이어졌다는 점을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 제4장에서는 이와 같은 중국의 부동산 시장에 대한 인식과 정책 기조 변화 속에 시행된 ‘세 가지 레드라인(三道红线) 규제’의 영향을 주요 부동산 기업들의 이자보상배율 등 채무 상환능력 핵심 지표들의 변화 속에서 찾아보았다. 동 작업은 문헌 조사, 통계 분석 등 일부 계량 방법론을 활용하였으며, 중국 국가통계국, wind, 중앙은행, 학술자료 등을 참고하였다. 본 연구 결과, 우선 중국의 부동산 부문의 정책변화 내용에서는 경기 침체 상황에서 과거 위기 국면에서와같이 부동산을 경기 활성화 도구로 활용, 과감한 지원책을 펴기보다는 위험 통제와 안정적 관리 위주의 기조로 전환하여 왔다는 점을 확인하였다. 중국은 2015년의 공급측 구조개혁에서 출발하여 부동산 부문 부채 확대를 실물경제의 주요 위험 요소로 인식하고 2017년의 중앙 금융 회의에서 동 위험 예방을 특히 강조하였다. 이어 2022년과 2023년의 중앙경제공작 회의에서 부동산 기업에 대한 자산부채 관리 강화 등 부동산발 시스템 위험이 발생하지 않도록 예방과 규제에 부동산 정책의 방점을 두어 왔으며, 경기 침체국면 속에 시행한 ‘세 가지 레드라인(三道红线) 규제’도 이러한 정책 기조의 연장선에 있다는 점을 확인할 수 있었다. 다음으로 ‘세 가지 레드라인(三道红线) 규제’가 부동산 기업의 채무 상환능력에 미친 영향과 관련, ‘규제’ 시행 이후 Evergrande Group 등 많은 부동산 기업들의 현금흐름과 채무 상환능력이 약화하였는데, 이는 이자보상배율과 현금비율 등 7개의 주요 핵심 지표들의 추이 변화를 통해 확인할 수 있었다. 한편 본 연구는 부동산 정책변화와 규제가 부동산 기업의 채무상환 능력에 미친 영향 분석에 초점을 맞춘 결과, 부동산 기업 전체에 대한 자산 건전성 수준과 부실화 정도, 그리고 이에 따른 중국 부동산 시장 자체의 위험 수준과 위기 가능성을 깊이 있게 살펴보지 못한 점은 한계로 지적된다. 따라서 앞으로는 주요 부동산 기업에 대한 ‘스트레스 테스트’ 등 작업을 통해 중국 부동산 기업의 위험 수준과 충격에 대한 내성 정도를 보다 종합적이고 객관적으로 점검하고자 하며, 이는 추후의 연구과제로 남겨둔다. The real estate industry in China has undergone rapid expansion since the commercialization and marketization measures of the housing market in 1998. Particularly during periods of economic downturn and crisis, real estate has been utilized as a primary tool for economic recovery, leading to an expansion in market size, with widespread oversupply and price bubbles forming as a result. This outcome is closely related to the debt-dependent management structure of real estate companies. When regulatory measures aimed at improving financial soundness, these companies may face short-term liquidity pressures, revealing the risks of default and bankruptcy. Taking these concerns into account, China has recently focused on preemptively preventing systemic risks arising from the real estate sector, despite the overall market downturn. The ‘Three Red Lines Regulation’, introduced to correct the excessive debt management of real estate companies and enhance financial soundness, is seen as a measure aimed at preventing these risks. This study aims to analyze the changes in real estate sector policies and examine the impact of the ‘Three Red Lines Regulation’ on the debt repayment ability of real estate companies by tracking changes in relevant key indicators. Chapter 3 reviews the general status of the Chinese real estate market and the changes in policies within the real estate sector. This chapter confirms that excessive concentration of credit resources in real estate, the debt-dependent management structure of real estate companies, and the vulnerability of private Chinese companies in the real estate sector have ultimately led to a shift in policy direction as the authorities became more aware of the risks in the real estate sector. Chapter 4 of this study explores the impact of the ‘Three Red Lines Regulation’, implemented amidst changing perceptions and policy directions in the Chinese real estate market, on key indicators of debt repayment ability, such as the interest coverage ratio of major real estate companies. This analysis was conducted using literature reviews, statistical analyses, and other quantitative methodologies, with references to data from sources such as the National Bureau of Statistics of China, Wind, the People's Bank of China, and academic materials. The results of this study first confirm that, instead of utilizing real estate as an economic stimulus tool with aggressive support measures during periods of economic downturn as in previous crises, China has shifted its policy focus toward risk control and stable management. Starting with the supply-side structural reform in 2015, China recognized the expansion of debt in the real estate sector as a major risk factor for the real economy, and in the Central Financial Work Conference of 2017, it placed special emphasis on preventing these risks. In the Central Economic Work Conferences of 2022 and 2023, China continued to focus on prevention and regulation, ensuring that no systemic risks originating from the real estate sector would emerge, with the ‘Three Red Lines Regulation’ being an extension of this policy direction. Regarding the impact of the ‘Three Red Lines Regulation’ on the debt repayment ability of real estate companies, it was observed that the cash flow and debt repayment capacity of many real estate companies, including Evergrande Group, weakened after the implementation of the regulation. This was confirmed through changes in trends across seven key indicators, such as the interest coverage ratio and cash ratio. However, this study did not fully explore the asset quality, distress levels, and overall risk in China's real estate market. Future research will focus on a more comprehensive assessment of these factors, including stress testing of major real estate companies.

LoRa LPWAN 무선 통신을 활용한 교량 유지관리 시스템 적용성 연구

박진오,박상헌,안승주,박원주,김종훈 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 2019 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집 Vol.23 No.1

LoRa LPWAN network system uses a license-exempt wireless communication system and implements data measurement through the integrated sensor based on Mems and wireless communication of existing measurement sensors. This system has superior technological / economic superiority using existing network and long distance communication compared to existing wireless measurement system, and secured economical efficiency by minimizing system construction equipment compared to wired measurement system. It is confirmed that the economical efficiency can be reduced by 41% compared to the conventional wired metering system. Since the LoRa LPWAN network system is excellent in terms of maintenance and operation, if installed in many bridges in Korea in the future, it will be developed as an excellent system in the maintenance of bridges. Etc.), and plant field (fire safety, etc.). LoRa LPWAN 네트워크 시스템은 비면허 무선통신을 이용하고, Mems 기반 통합센서를 통하여 Data 계측 및 기존 계측센서의 무선통신을 구현한 시스템이다. 본 시스템은 기존의 무선계측시스템 대비 장거리 통신과 기존망을 활용한 기술적/경제적인 우수성을 갖고 있으며, 유선계측시스템 대비 시스템 구축장비의 최소화로 경제성을 확보하였다. 경제성 검토항목에서 기존 유선계측 시스템 대비 약 41%의 경제적인 절감효과가 가능하다는 것을 확인하였다. 또한 유지관리 및 운영적인 측면에서도 우수하기 때문에 향후 국내에서도 많은 교량에 설치가 된다면, 교량의 유지관리 분야의 우수한 시스템으로 발전되고, 재난(지진 산사태 등), 환경(오염물 측정 및 관리 등), 플랜트 분야(화재 안전 등)에도 폭넓게 사용되길 기대한다.

방광암의 선별 및 추적검사로서 요중 NMP22의 의의

박진오,문두건,천준,김제종,윤덕기 大韓泌尿器科學會 1999 Korean Journal of Urology Vol.40 No.5

Hybrid TDOA 알고리즘 기반의 Airborne Emitter 위치탐지를 위한 Ground-Platform 센서의 위치 최적화

박진오,이우석,유병석,국찬호,정재우,Park, Jin-Oh,Lee, Woo-Seok,You, Byung-Sek,Kook, Chan-Ho,Chung, Jae-Woo 한국군사과학기술학회 2010 한국군사과학기술학회지 Vol.13 No.5

This paper considers the problem of time difference-of-arrival(TDOA) source localization when the TDOA and angle of arrival(AOA) measurements from an airborne emitter source are subject to ground-platform sensor position. The optimization of sensors' position is a challenging problem and a solution with good localization accuracy has yet to be found. This paper proposes an estimator that can achieve these purposes and provides optimized sensor position for good localization accuracy using the proposed estimator. The developed algorithm and sensor position are then examined under the special case of a single airborne source. The theoretical developments are supported by simulations.

Early labechiid stromatoporoids of the Yeongheung Formation (Middle Ordovician), Yeongwol Group, mideastern Korean Peninsula: Part I. Environmental distribution

박진오,홍종선,이정현,조석주,이동진 한국지질과학협의회 2017 Geosciences Journal Vol.21 No.3

This study examines depositional facies and environmental significance of early labechiid stromatoporoids in the Yeongheung Formation (late Middle Ordovician), Yeongwol Group in the mideastern part of the Korean Peninsula. The formation is composed of five depositional facies: lime mudstone to wackestone (LM/W), peloidal, intraclastic and bioclastic packstone to grainstone (P/G), laminated dolomitic lime mudstone (LMdl), algal laminite (La), and oolitic packstone to grainstone (P/Go). Three types of shallowing upward cycles in the succession are identified, including subtidal (LM/W–P/G), subtidal to peritidal (LM/W–P/G–LMdl–La), and peritidal cycles (LMdl–La). The stromatoporoids occur exclusively in the packstone to grainstone (P/G) facies of the subtidal cycle. These early labechiids inhabited on a grainy substrate under moderate- to high-energy conditions, conforming to the previous notion that stromatoporoids primarily occupied level-bottom or reefs, surrounded by grainy calcareous sediments during the Middle Ordovician.

인공발목관절의 임상시험 가이드라인 개발을 위한 문헌적 고찰

박진오,이모세,이진우,이수빈,한승환,Park, Jin Oh,Lee, Moses,Lee, Jin Woo,Lee, Soo Bin,Han, Seung Hwan 대한족부족관절학회 2014 대한족부족관절학회지 Vol.18 No.4

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop guidelines for clinical trial of the total ankle replacement system for premarket approval. Materials and Methods: We selected and analyzed nine peer-reviewed articles whose quality had been proven in a previous phase. Two investigators extracted parameters for guideline criteria, including number of cases, patient age, follow-up period, failure rate, radiographic osteolysis rate, residual pain rate, and percentage of satisfaction. In addition, the inclusion and exclusion criteria were analyzed and developed. Results: Eight level IV studies and one level II study were included. The average number of cases was 159 cases and the mean patient age was 63.5 years. The mean follow-up period was 4.2 years, ranging from two to nine. The average failure rate of total ankle replacement in mid- to long-term follow-up was approximately 13% (2%~32.3%). The rate of osteolysis was approximately 18%. Residual pain was common (21.4%~46%), but overall patient satisfaction was approximately 85.6% (67.5%~97%). Conclusion: The results could be used as criteria for designing the clinical studies, such as number of cases, patient age (over 60 years), and follow-up period (minimum two years). The clinical scoring system and 36-item short form health survey (SF-36) was the most commonly used method for clinical evaluation for total ankle arthroplasty. In addition, the overall results, including failure rate, osteolysis rate, and patient satisfaction, could be used as a parameter of guidelines for premarket approval.

중국 대출금리 결정기제의 관주도성 탈피성향 연구 -신 LPR 제도 시행을 중심으로-

박진오 중국지역학회 2020 중국지역연구 Vol.7 No.2

중국의 금리체계는 국가에 의한 집중 관리에서 점진적 시장화 경로로 느리지만 꾸준한 방향전환을 시도하고 있다. 시장경제의 중요한 가격신호인 시장금리는 거시적 측면에서 국가의 경제운영에 영향을 줄 뿐만 아니라 미시적 차원에서 기업과 개인의 경제활동에 직접적인 영향을 미치게 된다. 중국은 2013.10월은행권의 책정금리를 사실상 시장기준금리로 삼기위한 대출우대금리(Loan Prime Rate, “LPR”) 제도를 도입하면서 금리의 시장작동기제를 추진하였다. 그러나 기존에 병행적으로 운영되어왔던 대출기준금리가 LPR 금리수준을 꾸준히 상회하면서 은행창구에서의 LPR 금리 활용도는 극히 미미한 수준에 머물렀다. 그런데 이러한 대출기준금리는 특히 경기 불확실성 증대와 더불어 전 세계적 저금리 기조에 따른 기업과 가계 등 경제주체의 시장 실질금리 연동 자금수요에 능동적으로 대처하는데 많은 한계점을 보여왔다. 중국정부는 이러한 현실인식 속에 통화정책의 효과성 보장과 함께 시장 실질금리가 효과적으로 반영되도록 하기 위해 2019.8.20자로 새로운 대출우대금리 제도를 시행하였다. 일각에서는 이번 신 LPR 시행으로 은행권의 대출책정금리가 사실상 기존 대출기준금리를 대체하였다는 점에서 의미 있는 시장화 진척을 이루었다는 긍정적 평가를 내놓고있다. 그런데 현 중국의 대출금리결정기제는 중앙은행의 금리정책도구 활용이신 LPR에 직접적 영향을 미치면서 새로운 형태의 관주도성이 여전히 작동되고있다. 예를 들어 역(逆)RP 등 공개시장조작(Open Market Operation, "OMO") 금리가 MLF(Medium-term Lending Facility, 중기유동성지원창구) 금리를 견인하고, 동 MLF 금리는 다시 LPR 금리에 영향을 미치면서 중앙은행의 정책 도구에의한 금리 유도와 함께 당국의 창구지도가 결부되어 관주도 경향성이 뚜렷이나타나고 있다. 결국 신 LPR 평균금리 산정을 위한 고시은행(报价行)의 확대(기존 10개→18개 은행) 등 조치는 일면 당국의 금리시장화 의지를 엿볼 수 있으나, 최근의 일률적 금리 하향 안정화 추세에서 볼 수 있듯이 현 금리결정기제는 여전히 위와 같은 중앙은행 정책도구들이 작동되면서 나타나는 관주도성정책추진의 소산임을 알 수 있다. China's interest rate system has been trying to shift from centralized state management to gradual marketization, slowly but persistently. As an important price signal of market economy, market interest rate not only affects the economic operation of the country at the macro level, but also directly affects the economic activities of enterprises and individuals at the micro level. In October 2013, China introduced the preferential interest rate(Loan Prime Rate, “LPR") system for loans, which aims to set banks' interest rate as the real market benchmark interest rate and to promote the market operation mechanism of the interest rate. However, as the existing lending banchmark interest rate that had previously been running in parallel continues to exceed the LPR rate level, the utilization of LPR interest rates in the bank window remains only at a very limited level. With the increase of economic uncertainty, the existing lending banchmark interest rate has shown many limitations in actively responding to the market interest rate linkage capital demand of enterprises and households under the global tendency of low interest rate. Chinese government in such a realistic understanding that the existing lending banchmark interest rate does not properly reflect real market interest rate, in order to ensure the effectiveness of monetary policy, launched a new loan preferential interest rate the new LPR system on 25th August 2019. According to some experts, through the new LPR, the bank's lending policy rate has actually replaced the existing benchmark lending rate, so it has achieved a meaningful market-oriented process. However, the determination mechanism of current lending rate in China, used as interest rate policy tools by central bank, have a direct effect on the new LPR, the new form of government dominance is still in operation. Open market operations such as reverse repurchase rate have an effect on the level of MLF(Medium-term Lending Facility) interest rates which also operated by central bank, and MLF interest rates once again affect LPR interest rates, accompanied by a combination of window guidance of the authorities, so there still has obvious tendency of the ‘government-led features'. As a result, measures such as the expansion of the new LPR notification banks(previous 10 to currently 18 banks) to calculate the average interest rate for the new LPR show the authorities' will to strengthen the market interest rate system. And yet, from the recent trend of a uniformed downward trend in interest rates, we can see that the determination mechanism of current interest rate is still behind the above-mentioned central bank tools reflected by the government policy intention.

A New Method for Transduction of Mesenchymal Stem Cells Using Mechanical Agitation

박진오,Sung-Hoon Park,홍성출 한국분자세포생물학회 2009 Molecules and cells Vol.28 No.6

Applications of bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells in gene therapy have been hampered by the low effi-ciency of gene transfer to these cells. In current transduc-tion protocols, retrovirus particles with foreign genes make only limited contact with their target cells by passive diffusion and have short life spans, thereby limiting the chances of viral infection. We theorized that mechanically agitating the virus-containing cell suspensions would in-crease the movement of viruses and target cells, resulting in increase of contact between them. Application of our mechanical agitation for transduction process has in-creased the absorption of retrovirus particles more than five times compared to the previous static method without changing cell growth rate and viability. The addition of a mechanical agitation step increased transduction effi-ciency to 42%, higher than that of any other previously-known static transduction protocol.

전립선농양의 임상적 특성

박진오,윤덕기 大韓泌尿器科學會 1999 Korean Journal of Urology Vol.40 No.1

중국 지방정부 부채 구조에 관한 소고(小考): 부채 형성의 구조적 문제점 분석을 중심으로

박진오 중국지역학회 2024 중국지역연구 Vol.11 No.1

The escalating debt issues of Chinese local governments have become a subject of considerable scrutiny and analysis. Against the backdrop of the global economic challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic, the focus on the debt structure of various economic entities has heightened with particular attention drawn to the local governments in China. During the three-year-long response to the Covid-19 crisis Chinese local governments have incurred substantial fiscal expenditures related to pandemic control measures. These include vaccination campaigns quarantine protocols medical relief efforts and support for livelihoods. These fiscal commitments have played a pivotal role in accentuating the debt issues faced by local governments. Simultaneously the sustained downturn in the real estate market marked by the sequential bankruptcies of major real estate companies adds another layer to the fiscal challenges confronted by local governments. The ensuing reduction in revenue notably from land sales has further contributed to the deterioration of fiscal health. The debt structure of Chinese local governments has evolved in close association with Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs). These entities established by local governments to secure investment funds have played a crucial role in borrowing from banks and issuing corporate bonds. The funds raised by LGFVs have been primarily directed towards social infrastructure construction and real estate development. However structural issues including mismatches in fund maturity and the operational and repayment structure of projects have compounded with the recent downturn in the real estate market, leading to persistent risks of debt default. In essence the challenges in the real estate market have substantially constrained the income derived from land sales a vital revenue stream for local governments. This study aims to delve into the formation process and structural intricacies of the exacerbated local government debt. It employs a theoretical framework that considers the administrative nature of LGFV management, along with concepts such as fiscal decentralization and soft budget constraints to provide a comprehensive examination and analysis of the current state of Chinese local government debt.