한-EU FTA와 한국 공작기계의 대 EU 수출변화

박구웅 한국무역통상학회 2020 무역통상학회지 Vol.20 No.1

Machine tools are called mother machine symbolizing the status as a backbone of the whole machinery industry. Among the major machine tools are machining center, lathe, drilling machine, grinding machine, presses and forging machines. Main upstream industries of machine tools are forging, moulding, heat treatment, precision measurements, noise/vibration control, electronic controls and CAD/CAM, while the main downstream industries are machinery, automobiles, aviation, electronics, and shipbuilding to name a few. We study the changes in Korean machine tool trade competitiveness with the European Union(EU) following the enactment of Korea-EU FTA on July 1st 2011. Korean machine tool export volume to the EU has increased from 0.16% of total exports to the EU in 1991 to 1.13% in 2018 while import volume of Korean machine tools from the EU decreased from 1.80% of total imports from the region in 1991 to 0.41% in 2018. For the analysis of changes in the international competitiveness of Korean machine tool industry, we have applied various indices and included the US, China, Japan and Germany in the sample. First, in terms of RCA(revealed comparative advantage), Korea ranked second with 3.102~4.771 after Japan with 7.457~9.852. Second, for TSI(trade specialization index), Korea showed a large variation among eight 4-digit HS codes(HS8456~HS8463). This indicates Korea is concentrating on a couple of key sub-groups of machine tools. Third, for CAC(comparative advantage by countries), we could find that Korea recorded the highest level both before and after the Korea-EU FTA with a large margin against major competing countries. Finally, in terms of ESI(export similarity index), Korea is competing in the EU market most fiercely with Japan and then with Germany and the US. Overall, following the Korea-EU FTA, Korean machine tool industry has improved her trade competitiveness against major producer countries by a noticeable difference.

EU Accession and Macroeconomic Performance of the Transition Economies

박구웅 한국무역통상학회 2023 무역통상학회지 Vol.23 No.2

It has been nearly two decades since the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) joined the European Union in 2004. These former centrally planned countries should have now firmly settled down as members of the vast single bloc of market economies. We study the macroeconomic performance of eleven CEECs following the EU accession. The eleven transition economies have reduced CPI inflation rates from 35.6% to 1.9% during the period. Real GDP growth rates have slowed down slightly from 2.92% to 2.77%, but showed absolutely best performance compared to the Western European countries, the UK and the US. Furthermore, CPI inflation rates, unemployment rates, and current account balances all show a very strong convergence among the sample countries. OLS regression indicates positive significant effect of budget surplus and nominal effective exchange rates whereas negative effect of government debt and real effective exchange rates on real GDP growth rates. This implies continued dominance of government and the importance of trade in the macroeconomic performance of the eleven transition countries. In the non-linear STR (smooth transition regression) analysis, we get significant regression results for Poland and Bulgaria. Other countries do not show proper STR results, possibly due to small number of observations.

Foreign Exchange Risk Control in the Context of Supply Chain Management

박구웅 한국유통과학회 2015 유통과학연구 Vol.13 No.2

Foreign exchange risk control is in an important component in the international supply chain management. This study shows the importance of the reference period in forecasting future exchange rates with a specific illustration of KIKO currency option contracts, and suggests feasible preventive measures. Using monthly Won-Dollar exchange rate data for January 1995~July 2007, I evaluate the statistical characteristics of the exchange rate for two sub-periods; 1) a shorter period after the East Asian financial crisis and 2) a longer period including the financial crisis. The key instrument of analysis is the basic normal distribution theory. The difference in the reference period could lead to an unexpected development in contract implementation and a consequent financial loss. We may avoid foreign exchange loss by using derivatives such as forwards or currency options. We should consider not only level values but also the volatilities of financial variables in making a binding financial contract. Appropriate measures may differ depending on the specific supply chain pattern. We may extend the study with surveys on actual risk measures.

Velocity of Money in Korea, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States of America: 1962-2011

박구웅 한국무역연구원 2015 무역연구 Vol.11 No.1

Classical economists deny the dependence of money demand on interest rate and view thevelocity of money as reasonably constant in the short run. Keynesians reckon that thedemand for money critically depends on the interest rate and so does the velocity of money. Monetarists view the velocity of money as reasonably stable even in the long run. This paperanalyzed the time paths of velocity of money for the past 50 years in Korea, Japan, theUnited Kingdom (UK), and the United States of America (US). The main findings are asfollows. First, discount rate positively affected the money velocity’s rate of change only inKorea. Second, inflation rates (CPI or PPI) did not have any effect on the money velocityin any country when included individually in the regression. Third, money growth rates havestrong negative effect, while GDP growth rates have strong positive effect on the moneyvelocity in all the four countries considered in this paper. Fourth, the coefficients on theGDP growth rates are greater than unity in the UK and the US. In sub-periods regressions,slightly different results were obtained.

Persistence of PPP Deviations and Aggregation Bias

박구웅 한국EU학회 2023 EU학연구 Vol.28 No.1

We study persistence of PPP deviations for 12 Western European countries with the Euro as a reference currency. We analyse monthly data of CPI for the period of January 1996 to December 2021. We adopt COICOP classification by OECD for the CPI data. We estimate half-life of PPP deviations using impulse response function (IRF). Our research shows wide variation of half-lives from 5 months for Italy to 49 months for Switzerland, with the mean being 21 months and the median 14 months. More interestingly, both Imbs et al. (2005) type aggregation and Gadea and Mayoral (2009) type aggregation tend to overestimate the half-life when the original aggregate CPI conveys relatively short half-life and underestimate when conveys relatively long half-life. The tendency of overestimation is stronger for Gadea and Mayoral (2009) type and the tendency of underestimation is stronger for Imbs et al. (2005) type. This implies that the half-life of PPP deviations may differ depending on the aggregation methods.

Export and GDP Elasticities of Outward Foreign Direct Investment of Korea: 1981-2018

박구웅 한국무역연구원 2019 무역연구 Vol.15 No.3

Purpose - Korea has increased its outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) remarkably in the 1990s and the 2000s. We aim to identify the specific features of Korean OFDI with the sample of 67 countries for the period of 1981-2018. Design/methodology/approach - We draw first scatter diagrams for the distribution of correlations between OFDI and export and also between OFDI and host country GDP. As an analytic approach, we run panel regressions with fixed effects in log-transformed values. Findings - Korean OFDI moves positively with Korean exports to host countries, except in CIS and North America, supporting the complementary theory of OFDI with exports. Furthermore, OFDI moves positively even more strongly with host country GDP in most regions except Oceania. Current account balances of host countries generally have negative effects on Korean OFDI. Research implications or Originality - The study results imply that OFDI does not necessarily crowd out exports. Secondly, the positive effects of host country GDP on Korean OFDI provide an indirect support for the application of gravitational theory to OFDI. This research also indicates that Korean firms carried out strategic asset-seeking OFDI in the developed countries of Europe and North America while market- or low cost-seeking OFDI in the less developed regions.

A general equilibrium model of trilateral trade with oil duopoly

박구웅 인하대학교 정석물류통상연구원 2008 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL LOGISTICS AND TRADE Vol.6 No.2

I study the economic implications of the world oil market dominated by OPEC and non-OPEC major oil producing countries using a general equilibrium model of trilateral trade with oil duopoly. There are three countries and three goods, x, y, and oil (z). Home (H) is endowed with good x . Foreign (F) is endowed with good y and also produces oil (z). Middle (M) is an oil producing country and supplies oil only. I consider two types of oil market structure; (1) Cournot duopoly and (2) perfect competition. I find that Foreign is actually worse off under Cournot duopoly despite being a duopolist for wide range of parameter values that reflect real world situations. This is mainly due to reduced consumption of oil and reduced value of good y endowment under duopoly when Foreign is a net oil exporter or oil autarky, and is also due to worsening terms-of-trade effect under duopoly when Foreign is a net oil importer. Welfare reversal with higher welfare of Foreign under oil duopoly occurs only under highly unrealistic parameter values, and hence the main results of the study remain robust

The Effects of FTA on Trade under Different Degree of Product Substitution and Imports Market Structure

박구웅 인하대학교 정석물류통상연구원 2013 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL LOGISTICS AND TRADE Vol.11 No.2

We study here the effects of FTA on demand, consumer surplus, dealer profit, and tariff revenue depending on the degree of substitution between two goods and import competition structure in a two country’s static model. We consider monopolist dealer, and perfect competition in imports market. The base model is with a positive tariff and we compare the equilibrium with a zero tariff under FTA. The rankings in the consumer utility are such that it is i) the highest under perfect competition with FTA or without FTA, ii) second highest under monopoly with FTA, and iii) the lowest under monopoly without FTA.

HETEROGENEOUS AGENTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

박구웅 한국경제학회 2009 The Korean Economic Review Vol.25 No.2

I study the effects of the distribution of individual abilities on economic growth using a Lucas (1988) type two-sector growth model. The relation between investment in education and individual education efficiency is positive but less than one-to-one, so the model predicts a negative relation between the variance of ability and aggregate investment in education via Jensen’s inequality theorem. As a result, a more homogeneous country is predicted to achieve a higher growth rate than a more heterogeneous country within finite time. This result obtains in the absence of any political mechanism commonly used in the inequality-growth literature. This novel feature remains robust to a convex education technology of Rebelo (1991).

학습능력의 분포가 학업성취도에 미치는 영향

박구웅(朴九雄) 서울대학교 교육연구소 2013 아시아교육연구 Vol.14 No.3

개별학교 내의 학생들의 학습능력의 분포가 학습성과에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것은 학교별 학생선발이나 학교 내 학급운영 등에 있어서 중요한 정책적 함의를 갖는다고 할 수 있다. 고등학교를 중심으로 한 공교육에 있어서 평준화와 비평준화 중 어느 체제가 바람직한지에 대한 논의는 오래 전부터 있어 왔다. 한편 현실에서는 학생선발 방식, 중점교과목, 학교운영의 자율성 등에 있어서 일반계 고등학교와 특수 고등학교 사이에 그리고 좀 더 구체적으로는 특수목적 고등학교와 자립형 사립고 사이에도 여러 근본적인 차이가 존재한다. 본 논문에서는 연구 대상을 상대적으로 동질성을 갖는 과학고등학교와 외국어고등학교에 한정하여 논의를 진행한다. 1999∼2010년 간 대학수학능력시험에 있어서 14개 과학고와 15개 외고의 표준점수를 이용하여 학생들의 능력의 분포가 수능성과에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 분석한 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 국어, 수학, 영어의 표준점수는 여타의 학교 특성을 통제했을 때 모두 해당과목의 표준편차에 음(-)의 영향을 받고 있다. 둘째, 국/공립학교의 경우가 사립학교보다 그리고 지역단위 선발 학교의 경우가 전국단위 선발 학교의 경우보다 성과가 더 높게 나온다. 셋째, 대도시 지역의 학교들은 중소도시 또는 읍/면 지역의 학교들 보다 일반적으로 성과가 더 높다. Analysis of the impact of students’ ability distribution within school on the academic performance may have important policy implications for students recruitment or class allocation practices within school. It has long been discussed whether equalization or non-equalization policy is desirable in the public education system, especially at the secondary school level. Meanwhile, in reality, we witness many fundamental differences in students recruitment method, major academic subjects, school operations autonomy between general high schools and special high schools, and more specifically between special purpose high schools and autonomous private high schools. The current study focuses on science high schools and foreign language high schools which are perceived to share more commonalities. I use the test scores in the Korean College Scholastic Ability Tests (CSAT) for 1999-2010 to test the impact of students’ ability distribution within school on the students’ performance for the sample of 14 science and 15 foreign language high schools. Main findings are; first, standardized scores in Korean, Mathematics, and English all depend negatively on standard deviation in the corresponding subjects, controlling other school characteristics. Second, schools under public foundation and local catchment perform better than those under private foundation and nationwide catchment, respectively. Third, schools in metropolitan cities perform generally better than schools in small & medium sized cities and rural area.