http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
인과지도로 본 한국의 성장의 한계: 인구, 경제, 자원, 환경, 식량 위기요인을 중심으로
문태훈 ( Tae Hoon Moon ),김병석 ( Byung Suk Kim ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2009 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.10 No.3
The paper examines dynamic relationship among `Limit to Growth` factors in Korea using causal loop diagram. It also aims to explore policy implications for Korea in overcoming current difficulties and future crisis we may face. For this purpose, five factors -economy, population, resource, environment, food- used in the <Limit to the Growth> were adopted as an analytical framework. Findings show that Korea is fragile to external shock such as world economic crisis, food price surge, and resource price -including energy price- hike. High dependency of energy, food and resource on foreign market was found to be a major source of limit to growth in Korea. Furtheremore, environmental problems like global warming could be a major external shock that could hit Korea harder than the rest of the world. Policy implications and measures for these problems were discussed too.
시스템사고로 본 우리나라 사회갈등의 구조와 갈등해소를 위한 정책방향
문태훈 ( Tae Hoon Moon ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2012 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.13 No.1
The purpose of this study is to examine Korea`s social conflict structure from System Dynamics perspective and to suggest policy direction for conflict resolution. Unlike previous studies on Korea`s social conflict, this study tries to find out core structure of Korea`s social conflict with help of studies on system archetypes. As a result, Korea`s social conflict structure was analyzed as a combined prototype of ``limit to the growth`` archetype and ``success to the successful`` archetype. Based on this combined system archetype, a simple conflict model was simulated to examine the magnitude of conflict and success that could be reached under different conditions. With simulation results, policy suggestions were made for conflict resolution.
문태훈(Moon, Tae-Hoon),이지연(Lee, Ji-Yeon) 한국지역개발학회 2014 韓國地域開發學會誌 Vol.26 No.1
Purpose of this study is to examine regional differences in government’s flood damage restoration projects from the environmental justice perspective. For this purpose, this study examined regional difference of government"s flood damage restoration projects in terms of government’s financial support and time spent for restoration. Independent variables used in the study were income level, amount of damage, mass media exposure frequency, population size, education level, degree of political participation, urbanization rate, recovery capacity, and degree of political corruptions. Multiple regression analysis was used and the result show that proportion of government’s financial support was affected by total damage and population size. Total restoration period was affected by amount of damage, frequency of mass media exposure, and proportion of people with less than high school education. Both government"s financial support and total restoration period were affected by the amount of damage. Unlike previous studies, frequency of mass media exposure affected restoration period only. In summary, the amount of damage was the major factor affecting government"s financial support for restoration. With this result, this paper concluded that there is no environmental injustice in government"s flood damage restoration projects. Several policy suggestions and discussion were made based on these findings.
문태훈 ( Tae Hoon Moon ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2016 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.17 No.2
Purpose of this paper is to review series of Limits to Growth studies from its original Rome Club Report published in 1972 to the most recent one in 2012 by Jorgen Randers and finds its implications on concept and strategy of sustainable development. For this purpose first, this paper reviewed series of Limits to Growth studies in details with focus on scenarios used in simulation of world model. Second, response to the original Limit to Growth was reviewed and to see validity of its scenario based simulations, simulated results of interest variables and actual historical data up to the year 2010 was compared. Third, structure and key arguments in both studies, Limit to Growth studies and Our Common Future was explained and compared. Finally, implications of the Limit to Growth studies on concept and strategy for sustainable development was discussed. Based on the comparison, this paper argued that even if the term sustainable development was not used in the Limit to Growth at all, concept and strategies for sustainable development implied in the Limit to Growth are more clear and specific than those of Our Common Future. Since Limit to Growth studies were simulation based ones that produce detailed behaviors on interest variables, it clarifies more clearly the abstract concept of sustainable development and thus, provides specific guidelines for the direction of sustainable policy which has been suffering long from vagueness of concept of sustainable development.
지속가능한 성장을 위한 환경용량의 산정과 환경지표 개발에 관한 연구
문태훈 (Tae Hoon Moon) 한국정책학회 1998 韓國政策學會報 Vol.7 No.1
지속가능한 성장의 개념을 환경이 감당할 수 있는 범위내에서의 발전을 추구하는 것으로 이해한다면 우리는 어떤 형태로든지 환경이 허용하는 인간활동의 적정규모를 파악할 필요성과, 이 적정규모와 대비한 지역상황의 변화를 모니터링할 수 있는 환경지표를 개발해야 할 필요성에 직면한다. 이를 위하여 본 연구는 환경용량의 산정을 위한 제한된 소규모의 일반모델을 구축하고 이에 기초한 환경지표의 개발방법을 제시하였다. 특히 환경지표의 개발에 있어서는 기존의 환경지표가 순환적인 환경문제의 특성을 종합적으로 고려하는 데 한계가 있었으며, 환경정책의 목표를 설정하는 데 도움을 주지 못하였다는 점을 지적하였다. 그리고 이에 대한 대안으로서 부존의 자연환경, 지속가능한 인간활동의 적정규모, 환경부하의 크기, 그리고 환경의 질을 순환적으로 결합할 수 있는 지표체계 개발방법을 제안하였다. 이러한 지표체계는 환경정책과 환경프로그램의 목표치를 제공하고 환경상태에 대한 종합적인 모니터링 수단을 제공할 수 있다는 점에서 중요성이 강조될 수 있다. 그러나 이 논문에서 구축된 환경용량모델과 환경지표체계가 이산화탄소의 배출을 중심으로 한 모델에 한정되어 있다는 점은 본 연구의 한계로 남는다.
문태훈 ( Tae Hoon Moon ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2011 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.12 No.2
The purpose of this study is to examine measures to improve government`s supply oriented housing policy in population declining cities. For this purpose, system dynamics simulation method was used to build urban-housing model and different sets of housing policies were tested to see their impact on local housing problems. Simulation result shows that there is no best set of housing policies that can solve all housing problems in population declining cities. It also indicates that housing policy that solve one type of problems can worsen other type of problems. Housing policy that increases population size has negative effect of housing oversupply. It also increases proportion of old houses in population declining cities. However, housing policy that makes city younger with newer houses tends to increase housing shortage and housing price. So, policy choice needs to be made with clear understanding of trade off between different policies. The result also shows it is difficult to expect a full scale effect of housing policy on local housing problems unless it is executed with regional economic development policy because local housing problems are so closely related with local economic problem in population declining local cities.
보전과 개발을 둘러싼 중앙부서간의 환경갈등 원인과 저감방안에 관한 연구
문태훈(Tae Hoon Moon) 한국행정학회 2001 韓國行政學報 Vol.35 No.1
개발과 보전을 둘러싼 중앙부서간의 환경갈등은 지탱가능한 발전을 저해하는 중요한 원인이 되고 있다. 지탱가능한 발전을 이룩하기 위한 가장 중요한 선결요건은 개발정색과 보전정책간의 조화로운 통합이기 때문이다. 그러나 환경갈등을 둘러싼 기존의 연구는 대부분이 정부와 민간, 지방자치단체간의 갈등에 관하여 집중되고 있으며 중앙부서간의 환경갈등에 관한 연구는 미약한 실정이다. 이 연구는 중앙정부의 다양한 정책과 환경 정책간의 갈등요인을 조직적인 측면에서 분석하고 이에 대응하는 갈등저감 방안을 모색하였다. 문헌분석, 면담, 설문조사를 이용하여 부서들간의 갈등구조, 갈등행태, 갈등해소 장치들을 검토한 후, 갈등해소를 위한 기존의 제도적 장치들은 사전적이라기 보다는 사후적인 방안에 머물고 있음을 지적하였다. 그리고 부서간의 차이, 상호의존성의 문제에서 발생하고 있는 중앙부서간 환경갈등을 보다 근원적으로 해소해 나가기 위한 제도적 장치들을 마련하고 노력을 집중할 필요가 있음을 주장하였다.