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노맹석(Maeng Seok Noh),장혜정(Hye Jung Chang),이영조(Young Jo Lee) 한국병원경영학회 2001 병원경영학회지 Vol.6 No.2
The hospital bankruptcy rate is increasing, therefore it is very important to predict the bankruptcy using the existing hospital management information. The hospital bankruptcy is often measured in year intervals, called grouped duration data, not by the continuous time elapsed to the bankruptcy. This study introduces a hierarchical generalized linear model(HGLM) for analysis of hospital bankruptcy data. The hazard function for each hospital may be influenced by unobservable latent variables, and these unknown variables are usually termed as random effects or frailties which explain correlations among repeated measures of the same hospital and describe individual heterogeneities of hospitals. Practically, the data of twenty bankrupt and sixty profitable hospitals were collected for five years, and were fitted to HGLM. The results were compared with those of the logit model. While the logit model resulted only in the effects of explanatory variables on the bankruptcy status at specific period, the HGLM showed variables with significant effects over all observed years. It is concluded that the HGLM with a fixed ratio and a period of total asset turnrounds was justified, and could find significant within and between hospital variations.
손상으로 인한 사망자의 지역별 차이에 대한 HGLM을 이용한 연구
김길훈,노맹석,하일도,Kim, Kil-Hun,Noh, Maeng-Seok,Ha, Il-Do 한국데이터정보과학회 2011 한국데이터정보과학회지 Vol.22 No.2
본 논문에서는 최근 중요한 문제로 대두되고 있는 손상으로 인한 사망 중 운수사고, 자살, 낙상사고에 의한 사망률에 대한 시 군 구 별 차이를 체계적으로 파악하고자 한다. 2008년 사망원인통계 원시 자료 중 19세 이상이면서, 국제사인분류에 따른 사인이 운수사고, 자살, 낙상사고에 의한 자료만을 추출하여 분석대상으로 고려하였다. 분석모형으로 성별, 연령, 1인당 주민세를 고정효과로 보정하고, 사망자수가 포아송분포를 따른다는 가정 하에 지역효과를 변량효과로 둔 포아송 HGLM 모형을 고려하여 시 군 구 소지역별 효과의 차이를 질병지도로 나타내었다. 분석결과 운수사고, 자살사고로 인한 사망률은 시 군 구 소지역별로 유의한 차이가 나타났지만, 낙상사고로 인한 사망률은 시 군 구 지역별로 유의한 차이가 없는 것으로 나타났다. In this paper, we systematically investigate regional differences of the dead due to injuries in cities, towns and counties about transportation accidents, suicides and fall accidents, which have recently been an important issue of health problems in Korea, The data are from the Annual Report on the Cause of Death Statistics in Korea in 2008. They include the deaths over the age 19 from transportation accidents, suicides and fall accidents with the criterion of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases. Poisson HGLM is applied to estimate the mortality rate under the assumption that the number of deaths follow a Poisson distribution, by considering regions as random effects and by adjusting age, sex and standardized residence tax as fixed effects. Using the results of random effects prediction, the regional differences in cities, counties and towns are marked in disease mapping. The results showed that there were significant regional differences of mortality rates for transportation accidents and suicides, but no significant differences for fall accidents.
전국 결핵 신환자 의료빅데이터를 이용한 경쟁위험모형 적합
김경대,노맹석,김창훈,하일도,Kim, Gyeong Dae,Noh, Maeng Seok,Kim, Chang Hoon,Ha, Il Do 한국통계학회 2018 응용통계연구 Vol.31 No.4
결핵은 높은 이환과 사망을 일으키는 질병으로 현대의학의 발달에 따라 발생률과 사망률은 감소하고 있다. 그러나 한국은 아직까지 OECD 국가 중 결핵 발생률과 사망률이 가장 높다. 이에 따라 한국은 결핵의 예방 및 통제를 위해 여러 정책 사업을 실시하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 공공민간협력(public-private mix) 결핵관리사업이 치료결과에 미치는 영향을 분석하고 결핵환자의 치료 성공에 영향을 미치는 요인을 확인하고자 한다. 질병관리본부에서 관리하는 결핵환자 신고 자료를 이용하여 2012-2015년 전국 결핵 신환자 코호트 약 13만명을 대상으로 분석하였다. 누적 발생 함수(cumulative incidence function)를 이용하여 요인별로 누적 치료 성공률을 비교하였으며. 주 관심사건(치료성공) 및 경쟁사건(사망)을 고려한 두 가지 경쟁위험모형(cause-specific Cox's proportional hazards model and subdistribution hazard model)을 사용하여 분석 결과를 비교하였다. Tuberculosis causes high morbidity and mortality. However, Korea still has the highest tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality among OECD countries despite decreasing incidence and mortality due to the development of modern medicine. Korea has now implemented various policy projects to prevent and control tuberculosis. This study analyzes the effects of public-private mix (PPM) tuberculosis control program on treatment outcomes and identifies the factors that affecting the success of TB treatment. We analyzed 130,000 new tuberculosis patient cohort from 2012 to 2015 using data of tuberculosis patient reports managed by the Disease Control Headquarters. A cumulative incidence function (CIF) compared the cumulative treatment success rates for each factor. We compared the results of the analysis using two popular types of competition risk models (cause-specific Cox's proportional hazards model and subdistribution hazard model) that account for the main event of interest (treatment success) and competing events (death).
부산, 울산 및 경상남도 만 19세 남자의 고도근시 유병률
이상준,엄상화,유병철,손혜숙,홍영습,노맹석,이용환,Lee, Sang-Joon,Urm, Sang-Hwa,Yu, Byeng-Chul,Sohn, Hae-Sook,Hong, Young-Seoub,Noh, Maeng-Seok,Lee, Yong-Hwan 대한예방의학회 2011 Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health Vol.44 No.1
Objectives: The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence and correlated factors of high myopia in 19 year-old men in Southeast Korea. Methods: This retrospective study was based on the medical checkup data of conscription during 2005. The study subjects were 19 years old men in Busan, Ulsan and Gyeongsangnam-do. The health checkup data of the conscripts consisted of noncycloplegic autorefraction test, the biometric data and social factors. To analyze the social and biometric effects, we classified the biometric factors into 4 or 5 groups and the social factors into 3 groups. High myopia was defined as a spherical equivalent of under -6.0 diopter. Data analysis was performed using the chi square test for trends and multiple logistic regression analysis. The SAS(version 9.1) program was used for all the analyses. Results: The prevalence of high myopia was 12.39% (6256 / 50 508). The factors correlated with high myopia were the residence area (OR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.77 to 2.4 for small city; OR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.72 to 2.34 for metropolis; the reference group was rural area), academic achievement (OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.34 to 1.53 for students of 4-and 6-year-course university; the reference group was high school graduates & under) and blood pressure (OR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.10 to 2.16 for hypertension; OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.17 for prehypertension; OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.20 for hypotension; the reference group was normal blood pressure). Conclusions: More than one tenth of the young men were high myopia as one of the risk factor for visual loss. Further studies on high myopia and its complications are needed to improve eye health in Southeast Korea.
국가수준 교과학습 진단평가의 수학영역에 관한 문항반응 분석
박지은(Park Ji-Eun),김성민(Kim Sung-Min),이경화(Lee Kyeong-Hwa),노맹석(Noh Maeng-Seok) 동북아시아문화학회 2009 동북아시아문화학회 국제학술대회 발표자료집 Vol.2009 No.5월
The purpose of this study is to judge the adequacy of Diagnostic Test for problems which have submitted in National Level Mathematics Diagnostic Test on Mar. 6, 2008. We have done the Analysis of Item Response through Rasch model that is recently common measuring method of item response theory in the world. It might be difficult to generalize the result for all national students because we have only studied for senior students of middle school in western area of Busan who live relatively harsh educational environment compared to another student. But, we are supposed to know the suitability for Diagnostic Test that each question of National Level Mathematics Diagnostic Test can provide precise information of a private student to analyze consistency and propensity of difficulty through Rasch model. Each sectional difficulty of mathematics that consists of five sections is not accurate as a result of the Analysis of Item Response. Finally, we find out that the discrimination of Diagnostic Test is not clear to get data for the educational level of students because the difficulty of all questions is generally easy to provide exact knowledge for difference among each student.
배정이(Jeong Yee Bae)(裵井珥),정상태(Sang Tae Jeong)(鄭尙泰),노맹석(Maeng Seok Noh)(盧孟錫),손혜숙(Hae Sook Sohn)(孫惠淑),홍주희(Ju Hee Hong)(洪周希),염석란(Seok Ran Yeom)(廉釋蘭),김태구(Tae Gu Kim)(金泰九),마창수(Chang Su Ma)(馬昌守),김윤정(Yoon Jung 위기관리 이론과 실천 2011 Crisisonomy Vol.7 No.1
본 연구는 노인의 손상사망의 주요원인이 되고 있는 낙상사고 예방을 위한 기초자료조사로서, 부산시에 소재하고 있는 경로당 1,949개소 중 지역배분을 고려한 1/5 계통추출 방법으로 389개소를 선정하여 각 구군별로 안전실태를 조사하였다. 본 연구 결과는 95% 신뢰수준 하에서 오차한계 ±4.0% 로 본 연구 결과는 국가통계(승인번호 : 통계협력과09007)로 승인받은 바 있다. 경로당 안전실태 조사 항목은 총 28개 문항으로 실외 5문항, 실내계단 4문항, 현관 2문항, 거실/방 3문항, 욕실/화장실 4문항, 소화/대피시설 10문항으로 방문조사를 통하여 실시하였다. 분석 결과, 경로당의 실외 및 실내계단의 안전시설면에서는 전체적으로 경로당의 출입구에 야간조명과 센서 혹은 스위치 설치는 양호한 편이나 계단의 난간이나 미끄럼 방지장치는 매우 미흡하였고, 응급사태발생시를 대비한 긴급전화번호의 부착이나 변기 옆 손잡이 및 비상벨의 설치율도 극히 저조하였다. 특히 본 연구를 통하여 경로당의 소화 및 대피 시설은 상대적으로 매우 열악하다는 사실을 확인할 수 있었는데, 구급함과 연기감지기, 화재경보기, 가스누설 경보기, 구조대의 구비 및 자동화 소화설비는 거의 갖추어있지 않아 화재발생시 인명 피해가 우려된다. 결론적으로 부산광역시의 경로당 내에서의 노인의 낙상 및 화재 등 안전사고 예방을 위해서는 기본적인 안전시설의 보완이 시급하다고 할 수 있다. 따라서 노인을 대상으로 한 안전의식 증진 교육, 낙상예방 체조 등 운동 프로그램의 개발 및 보급 등으로 노인 손상예방과 안전증진을 위한 정책과 시설 개선 등 노력이 필요하다. Accidents involving elderly are an important cause of death and disability. They also have enormous financial implications The objective of this study was to investigate the safety facilities of senior citizen centers (Kyongrodang) in Busan. Methods: This descriptive study conducted visit-surveys with organized questionnaires and sampled 389 Kyongrodang in Busan. Data collected was analyzed descriptive statistics SPSS/WIN 17.0. Results: Findings revealed that gas leak sensor, fire alarm, smoke detector, sprinkler were not properly installed in almost senior citizen centers. The installations of first-aid kit and fire extinguisher are needed for elderly safety promotion, Conclusion: In senior citizens' centers, fall prevention safety education should be activated as a injury prevention program. This study gave a very useful and important data to prepare accident prevention program and to prepare accident prevention strategies.