박사학위논문초록

곽승욱 대한전자공학회 2010 전자공학회지 Vol.37 No.4

Analyst Herding and Optimism: Evidence from Twelve Asia-Pacific Markets

곽승욱,이상휘 한국기업경영학회 2011 기업경영연구 Vol.18 No.3

This paper presents an empirical analysis of analyst herding and optimism phenomena in twelve Asia-Pacific markets. The sample contains 17 years of 224,841 observations from 1988 to 2003. The twelve Asia-Pacific countries are Australia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia,New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. The empirical findings suggest that analyst optimism is widespread across Asia-Pacific markets. Systematic herding behavior of analysts is observed as analysts forecast earnings farther out into the future. A bivariate regression analysis indicates that when analysts are more inclined to the herd, they tend to issue less optimistic forecasts. The multiple regression shows that analyst herding tends to strengthen as analyst coverage and forecast horizon increase. In general, evidence in this paper supports the findings in the existing US and European studies, and suggests world-wide phenomena of analyst optimism and herding behavior. The herding behavior of analysts seems to be a major component of analyst optimism.

A New Paradigm in Investor-Analyst Relation

곽승욱 한국경영컨설팅학회 2014 경영컨설팅연구 Vol.14 No.1

애널리스트의 순이익 예측치는 일반투자자들에게 중요한 투자정보를 제공해왔다. 순이익예측치에 포함된 투자정보가 주식가격에 미치는 영향을 연구하는 기존의 패러다임은 정보에 대한 투자자의 기댓값과 애널리스트의 기댓값이 같다는 가정에서 출발한다. 그러나 그러한 가정은 심각한 오류를 유발할 수 있다. 왜냐하면 투자자와 애널리스트의 기대는 상이할 가능성이 크고 애널리스트의 기댓값에 의존하는 투자자는 애널리스트의 행태적 오류에서 자유롭지 못하기 때문이다. 본 연구는 기존 패러다임의 오지정(Misspecification) 문제를 해결함과 동시에 검증 가능한 두가지가설 (순수기대가설과 합리적기대가설)을 활용해서, 애널리스트의 순이익 예측치에 담긴 투자정보에 반응하는 투자자의 행태연구를 위한 새로운 패러다임을 제시한다. 새로운 패러다임의 적용분야는 투자자-경영인 관계, 경영인-애널리스트 관계, 또는 경영인 애널리스트 투자자관계 등 광범위하다.

이동 Ad Hoc 망에 대해 동적 소스 라우팅을 이용하는 단방향 라우팅 프로토콜

곽승욱,이광배,김현욱,Gwak, Seung-Uk,Lee, Gwang-Bae,Kim, Hyeon-Uk 한국정보처리학회 2001 정보처리학회논문지 C : 정보통신,정보보안 Vol.8 No.4

실제적인 이동 Ad Hoc 망에서는 단말의 비대칭성이나 무선환경 특성으로 인해 단방향 링크가 존재할 수 있다. 그러나 현재 Zone 라우팅 프로토콜이외의 기존의 이동 Ad Hoc 라우팅 프로토콜은 양방향 링크들만을 지원하도록 구현되어 있다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 가장 대표적인 라우팅 프로토콜인 DSR(Dynamic Source Routing) 프로토콜이 단방향 링크를 포함하는 이동 Ad Hoc 망에서 구동될 수 있도록 동적 소스 라우팅을 이용한 새로운 단방향 라우팅 프로토콜을 제안한다. 단방향 링크 상에서 효율적으로 구동하기 위해서 제안한 단방향 라우팅 프로토콜은 새로운 경로발견 및 경로유지 방법을 사용하였다. 성능평가를 위해서 미국 버클리 대학의 NS-2 시뮬레이터 프로그램에 제안한 내용을 코드로 삽입시켰으며, 성능평가 파라미터를 얻기 위해 카네기멜론 대학에서 제공한 이동 패턴파일과 연결 패턴파일을 조합하여 사용하였다. 성능평가 항목으로 데이터수신율 및 평균경로 설정시간을 고려하였으며, 제안된 3가지 경로설정 방식들에 대해 비교·평가하였다.

The P/B Ratio : Level Versus Change

곽승욱 한국재무관리학회 2013 財務管理硏究 Vol.30 No.3

This study sheds a new light on the role of the change in price-to-book ratio (PB) relative to the level of price-to-book (P/B) ratio in predicting stock performance. A simple portfolio return analysis shows that the PB is a more effective investment heuristic than the P/B ratio. The contemporaneous panel regression with fixed and random effects discloses that both the PB and the P/B ratio are positively and significantly related to stock returns. The proxy panel regression with fixed and random effects holds that the P/B effect becomes contrarian, while the PB effect remains positive.

휴리스틱, 편향, 감정과 경제적 의사결정의 역학관계

곽승욱,박종성 한국경영컨설팅학회 2015 경영컨설팅연구 Vol.15 No.3

현대적 의미의 행동경제학이 태동한 지도 벌써 40여 년을 넘어 반세기로 접어든다. 경제학과 재무관리 분야에서 방대한 연구가 행해져 왔고 그 결과는 학문의 흐름과 패러다임을 바꾸어 놓았다고 해도 과언이 아니다. 그러나 행동경제학의 핵심 주제인 휴리스틱, 편향, 그리고 감정에 대한 정확한 실체와 상호 역학관계에 대한 설명은 무분별하게 산재되어 거의 전무한 상태나 마찬가지이다. 본 연구는 무분별한 나열의 형태로 존재하는 행동경제학의 핵심요소인 다양한 휴리스틱과 편향이 전망이론, 자기과신, 그리고 감정의 큰 프레임으로 정리될 수 있음을 보여주고 경제적 의사결정은 휴리스틱, 편향, 그리고 감정의 역동적 상호관계 안에서 이루어진다는 결론을 도출한다. 궁극적으로 행동경제학의 핵심개념에 대한 이해를 돕고 관련분야의 연구, 응용, 경영컨설팅의 발전에 기여함을 그 의의로 한다. Since the mind-breaking master pieces of work by Kahneman and Tversky (1974, 1979), behavioral economics and finance have been influencing every corner of our economic decision-making and changing the theoretical paradigms of traditional economics and finance. It is now a norm that economic decisions and behaviors are not only the consequences of expected utility and rational choice but also the manifestations of rationality bounded by heuristics, biases, and emotions. The plethora of work on behavioral economics and finance have filled in academic journals and various media and replaced the presumably rational explanations of standard economics and finance on socio-economic phenomena. The investor psychology has been used to describe quite a few market failures including the 1987 stock market collapse, the burst of dot.com bubbles and the 2008 global financial crisis. In 1996, Alan Greenspan, then-Federal Reserve Board chairman, used a phrase “Irrational Exuberance” to warn market overvaluation. Many market anomalies have been considered the normal effects of imperfect human minds. The exclusive academic territories that neoclassical economics and finance had built have fallen apart and the fields of economics and finance are practically interdisciplinary. Understanding human psychology in the context of social interactions as well as econometrics and derivatives is now central, if not critical, to solving socio-economic problems and developing resilient financial markets. A problem occurs as we search for dynamic relations among behavioral characteristics of decision makers such as heuristics, biases, and emotions. There are a block of articles, which use these traits to describe and explain certain aspects of financial and economic events. Few articles, however, effectively and efficiently clarify and interrelate these important traits of market participants. This study purports to fill this gap and map the dynamic relations between the behavioral traits of market participants and economic decision making. This map of dynamic relationship aims at helping researchers carry a handy list of behavioral economics tools for future research and providing other decision makers with an organized check list of irrational judgment and decision making.

The Impact of Sarbanes-Oxley Act on Earnings Management, Return, and Risk

곽승욱 한국상업교육학회 2012 상업교육연구 Vol.26 No.2

The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOA) is one of the most significant additions to the U. S. securities laws and has fundamentally changed the landscape of corporate governance and disclosure in the U. S. This paper investigates whether the SOA discourages the widespread practice of earnings management, enhances stock returns, and causes a structural change in market risk. The contingency analysis suggests that the enactment of the SOA indeed deters earnings management, leads to higher stock returns, and results in a significant upward shift in market risk. The majority of states share these changes. Another interesting finding is that earnings management is not directly associated with stock returns when the time effect is controlled. Drawing upon the empirical results, the SOA appears to achieve its major goal of recovering investor confidence in the U. S. financial markets.

The Impact of Nudging on Retirement Savings : A Comprehensive Review and Non-Parametric Tests

곽승욱 한국상업교육학회 2019 상업교육연구 Vol.33 No.4

The rapid growth in aged population and life expectancy exacerbated by the substantial decline in birth rate have created a new type of crisis: retirement crisis. People and governments are not familiar with this new problem and more seriously, they are not well prepared for it. The retirement saving rate is far from an optimal level and the majority of people passively rely on hopeful growth in production population, development in technology, and aggressive spending in welfare policy. We need a more active and effective cure to circumvent the rising crisis. Nudging is a great candidate with excellent history of success for such task. The present paper aims at comprehensively reviewing prior studies on the impact of various nudges on the rates of retirement participation and contribution and providing an analytical summary of non-parametric tests in which nudging activities at the corporate and governmental levels can significantly alter the retirement savings behavior and eventually the quality of post-retirement life. Specifically, a variety of nudging skills such as automatic enrollment and informative email improve the employee participation and additional savings in retirement plans at the corporate and public levels. Nudging might be a key to turn the new crisis into a new opportunity.

Innovative Macroeconomic Value Determinants

곽승욱,Mengqing Yin,최미정,이상휘 한국재무관리학회 2013 財務管理硏究 Vol.30 No.1

In this paper, we test a captivating proposition that the innovative (difference) and interactive terms of macroeconomic variables significantly improve our understanding of the stock return movements. We revisit a prominent issue on the association of the stock return with macroeconomic variables such as default risk premium, term structure of interest rates, growth in GDP and inflation and provide an innovative perspective on the obsolete issue. Using the S&P 500 Industrial Composite Index, we report that the innovative and interactive terms of the variables appear to be significant determinants of the stock return. Our findings suggest that other return models take the innovative and interaction effects into account.

Subjective Well-Being: A Structural Model

곽승욱,박종성 한국전문경영인학회 2018 專門經營人硏究 Vol.21 No.2

Social scientists have long been interested in the determinants of subjective well-being (SWB) and found a long list of factors that play the role of interpreting and responding to various life events and manifest themselves in daily psychological adjustments. To further develop this tradition, the current study aims at systematically reviewing major meta-analytic studies on SWB and its influential determinants and integrating the effect sizes found in earlier studies into a comprehensive structural model. The comprehensive structural model: 1) confirms that personal and socio-economic factors like personality, economic status, and social capital have significant influences on SWB; 2) partially reveals that it is essential for SWB studies to incorporate domain satisfaction variables - job, marital, and health - into consideration; 3) shows that consistent with existing studies, personality appears to be a dominant SWB determinant and simultaneously implies that this typical tendency can change if the moderating effects of domain satisfaction variables are fully manifested; and 4) suggests that future SWB studies reach a consensus on an aggregate measure of SWB. Future research on SWB including more meta-analyses from different disciplines, on more advanced systematic review technique, and on the comprehensive structural model with more interactive terms between SWB variables is warranted.