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양안 교류협력이 남북관계에 주는 함의: ECFA와 관련하여
전병곤 통일연구원 2012 統一 政策 硏究 Vol.21 No.1
본 글은 「해협양안경제협력기본협정(ECFA)」체결 이후 양안 교류협력의 변화 양상을 분석하고그것이 남북 교류협력에 주는 정책적 함의와 시사점을 제시하려는 시도이다. 다만, 양안관계와 남북관계가 갖는 상이성과 유사성을 고려해 본고에서는 한국의 입장을 중국이나 대만의 어느 일방에 고정하지 않고 양안관계에서 나타나는 특성을 남북관계에 교차적으로 적용하였다. 이를 위해 먼저, 본 글은 양안의 ECFA 체결 의도와 ECFA를 둘러싼 정치경제적 교류협력의 변화를분석하였다. 양안은 안정과 발전을 위해 ECFA를체결하였고, ECFA 체결 이후 양안관계는 교류협력의 제도화를 거쳐 안정적인 발전단계에 진입한 것으로 평가되며, 이러한 추세는 지속될 전망이다. 이러한 양안의 경험을 남북 교류협력과의 비교평가를 통해 남북 교류협력 관계의 개선을 위한 정책적 함의를 제시하였다. 즉, 정치군사적 갈등에도불구하고 경제교류협력을 유지해야 하는 점, 교류협력의 지속을 위해서는 한국이 일정 수준의 손해를 감수해야 하는 점, 상대적 열위에 처해 있는 북한이 오히려 남북관계를 주도할 수 있는 점, 상생및 상호의존적인 협력방향을 지향해야 하는 점, 민간과 정부를 분리해 추진하는 점, 국내 여론과 상대국 여론을 고려해야 하는 점 등이 그것이다. This article examines the implications of inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation by analyzing the political and non-political exchanges and cooperation in China-Taiwan relations. Since the China-Taiwan relations and inter-Korean relations both have similarities and differences, this article draws on the implication,that China-Taiwan exchanges and cooperation brings to inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation, based on the policies of both China and Taiwan as well as the characteristics shown from the bilateral exchanges and cooperation. In order to draw such implications, this article first analyzes the characteristics of the development process of cross-Strait exchanges and cooperation after the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement. The article draws applicable and useful suggestions for inter-Korean relations through a comparative evaluation of inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation. One side will endure a certain amount of losses at the beginning of exchanges and cooperation; a conservative side of the exchanges and cooperation will lead the bilateral relations in a later phase; economic exchanges and cooperation should not necessarily lead to political exchanges and cooperation; an intermediary, which acts as a buffer for exchanges and cooperation, will be necessary; and the importance of international cooperation. Considering all of the above, inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation should be shifted for a long-term reciprocity led by civilians. In addition, political military cooperation and international cooperation should be promoted in parallel.
전병곤 중국학연구회 2006 중국학연구 Vol.- No.35
China's Perception of the North Korean Nuclear Issue and the Change of China-North Korea Relations
전병곤 중국학연구회 2010 중국학연구 Vol.- No.54
This paper is the first step that will provide a total and long term project of Korea’s seeking cooperation space toward China. For these points, it analyzes China’s projects and growing possibilities about North-Eastern regional development, and influences to the Korean Peninsula. It reaches the result that China’s North-Eastern regional development plan will offer Korea challenges as well as opportunities. Thus, it basically shows the strategically cooperational direction between Korea and China at the same time it also gives solutions how to deal successfully with challenges and how to use chances. Especially this paper makes the point that Korea and China should do away with the competition for interests toward North Korea but take cooperational paths for the future due to the stability of the Korean Peninsula and a collaboration space for opening North Korea. The Korea-China cooperations will create China-North Korea cooperation, the stable development of Korea-China’s, and virtuous circle structure that implement positive impacts mutually, which shows ways this to North East Asia. Concretely, it shows that after setting up the mid-long term direction of Korea-China cooperations, Korea will promote Korea-China Cooperations and tow Koreas economic cooperations together. And it also shows that Korea will make a triangular cooperational structure consisting of two Koreas and China and provide a mid-long term plan related to those projects. With these points, Korea will get interests by participating in China’s North Eastern regional development and by intensifying Korea-China economic cooperations, and get effects which secure Korea's initiative of Northeast Asia’s economic cooperations. Further more with China-North Korea economic cooperations, Korea is able to propel two Koreas cooperations and Northeast Asia's cooperations which provide the stability of the two Korea’s relationship and two Koreas economic community together.