동북아 지역질서의 재편 : 미·일·중 삼각관계와 한국의 안보외교 Trilateral Relationship among U.S., Japan and China and South Korea's Security Diplomacy

이기종 한국전략문제연구소 1998 전략연구 Vol.5 No.2

The existing power arrangement in Northeast Asia can be characterized as one of confrontation between a new United States-Japanese alliance and China in the context of a strategic triangular relationship among the three countries, involving mutual conflict and cooperation. It is expected that, in the 21st century, there will emerge a pattern of confrontation between the United States and China, on the world level, and one between Japan and China, on the regional level. If a conflict between the United States and Japan should grow or if the former's armed forces stationed in East Asia should be cut down, there would reemerge the strategic triangular arrangement among the three major powers. In this case, each of the three countries would seek to gain Russia, which became relatively weekened, over to its side. Such an effort is already being made. Recently, China declares that it will proceed with a strategic partnership with Russia against the reinforcement of the U.S.-Japanese alliance. Japan also tries to establish a new cooperative relationship with Russia in spite of a dispute over its four northern islands. In addition, the United States seeks to strengthen its relationship with Russia. This paper examines triangular relationships among the United States, Japan, and China, and then North-South Korean relationships, as will be developed as the result of a reshuffle of power in East Asia. In the Cold War era, persistent confrontation existed between the three southern powers, including the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, and the three northern powers, such as the Soviet Union, China, and North Korea. However, such a confrontation pattern has been attenuated by the following events: the end of the Cold War, the normalization of South Korean diplomatic relations with Russia and China in the early 1990s, and a U.S.- North Korean agreement on the nuclear issue in Geneva in October 1994. On the other hand, there has been some continuity in military relations. The U.S.-South Korean and Chinese-North Korean alliances have been maintained. After Russia abrogated its military alliance relationship with North Korea, it has pursued a balanced policy toward two Koreas. This paper provides four scenarios of power arrangements which will develop in Northeast Asia in the 21st century. First is the case in which South Korea will maintain its alliance with the United States and its friendly relationships with China, Japan, and Russia. and in which it will continue its current confrontation with North Korea. This scenario is the best one from the South Korean perspective. In this case, Pyungyang will be isolated, and Seoul will seek to induce it to open and reform its system by means of pressure from the four neighboring major powers. As the second best one, another scenario is the case in which confrontation between the U.S.-South Korean alliance and North Korea will reemerge, and in which China, Japan, and Russia will take a neutral position. In this scenario, if South Korea, through its diplomatic efforts, reinforces its economic cooperation with China, and builds political and military confidence with the Baijing regime, it is highly likely .that the alliance relationship between North Korea and China will be abrogated as in the North Korean-Russian case. The third scenario is the worst one in which confrontation will develop between South Korea and the North Korean-Chinese alliance, but in which the United States, Russia, and Japan will adopt a neutralist or pro-North Korea policy. It is difficult to expect that this case will work. Nevertheless, it might happen if the U.S. forces in Korea should be withdrawn and if China should become a hegemonic power, while maintaining its alliance with North Korea. The last scenario is the case of direct confrontation between South and North Koreas. This case will take place when the four major powers make cross-recognition of two Koreas after North Korea's diplomatic normalization with the United States and Japan. As a theory of the North Korean regime's breakup has been recently raised, analysts assume that there would be a five-major power arrangement in which a unified Korea would function as a balancer in maintaining the balance of power in Northeast Asia. If Pyungyang successively soft-lands through the recovery of its economy and its diplomatic normalization with Washington and Tokyo, however, it is expected that there will emerge a six-power competitive arrangement. In this case, interactions between the United States, Japan, and China, on one hand, and two Koreas, on the other hand, will actively take place, while Russian influences will diminish. This research provides several predictions about power relationships among the four major powers and in the Korean peninsular from short-, middle-, and long-term perspectives. From a short-term perspective, there exists a confrontation relationship between the U.S.-Japanese alliance and China on the regional level. It is predicted, on the level of the peninsular, that the U.S.-South Korean alliance and the South Korean-Japanese cooperative relationship will be maintained, along with the Chinese-North Korean alliance. From a middle-term perspective, the cross-recognition of two Koreas will weaken the U.S.-South Korean and Chinese-North Korean alliances. In this situation, the major powers as well as two Koreas will compete diplomatically with one another in order to establish a balance of power in Northeast Asia to their own advantage. From a long-term perspective, it can be assumed that change in the East Asia policy of the United States will lead to the weakening of its influence and, thus, the strengthening of the South Korean-Chinese relationship. At the same time, multilateral security cooperation would be institutionalized. In this case, South and North Koreas will vie not only with each other but also with the four major powers without regard to their existing alliance relationships. After the normalization of the North Korean-U.S. diplomatic relationship, China will not remain indifferent to the situation in which the peninsular will fall under the exclusive influence of the United States. Nevertheless, Washington will seek to induce the two Koreas to pursue pro-American policies, After the cross-recognition of two Koreas, Japan will actively make such an effort to gain economic access to North Korea that it will have economic influence on the peninsular, unlike United States and Chinese efforts to exercise security influence. If the relationships among the three major powers and, especially those between the United States and China, should develop in the form of strategic cooperation, progress would be made in North-South Korean relations and, therefore, peace would be established in Northeast Asia. On the other hand, when the relationships between the United States and China become worsened or when those between Japan and China develop into hegemonic competition, both of two Koreas will adopt a policy of maintaining the status quo in the peninsular, while trying to create a balance of power to their advantage in the region. In the meantime, each of the major powers will pursue a policy of unifying the peninsular on the basis of its own superior power position. The purposes of this paper is to predict the possible rearrangement of power relationships in the context of increasing insecurity in Northeast Asia and to examine South Korea's security measures. For these purposes, first of all, it describes the aspects of conflict and cooperation in the triangular relationships of the United States, Japan, and China, which resulted not only from the collapse of the Soviet Union but also from the subsequent weakening of Russian influence. It is predicted from a short-term perspective that those relationships will tend to be cooperative in their economic and security aspects. From a long-term perspective, however, they will show increasing conflict as the result of hegemonic competition, including emerging confrontation between the United States and China, around the year of 2020 when the latter's level of GNP becomes highest in the world. Secondly, the research examines the trend of changes in power relationship and possible new arrangements in Northeast Asia. By doing so, it intends to provide South Korea's security measures. Since the existing arrangement of confrontation between the United States-Japanese alliance and China is expected to change into one of military and hegemonic competition between Japan and China, along with the diminution of American influence, South Korea and other Asian countries need to prepare for it. Thirdly, the paper presents several models of power arrangements likely to develop around the Korean peninsular. In particular, it is predicted that, in the process of competition among the countries concerned after the cross-recognition of two Koreas, they and the four major powers will contend diplomatically with one another in order to gain more influence and security. Despite existing confrontation between the United States-South Korean alliance and Japanese-South Korean cooperative relationship, on one hand, and the Chinese-North Korean alliance, on the other hand, there is a likelihood that a new cooperative military relationship between South Korea and China will result from the reinforcement of their economic cooperation as well as from North Korea's diplomatic normalization with the United States and Japan. Finally, this research provides South Korea's security measures to meet the rearrangement of power relationship in Northeast Asia and its effects on the peninsular. (1) Seoul should proceed with active security diplomacy designed to produce a balance of power in the region. In the 21st century, by attaining its goal of becoming an advanced nation, South Korea has to enter into a five-major power system. In this system, it should play the role of a balancer in maintaining peace and the balance of power by carrying out an active strategy of engagement. In addition, it not only should contain the North Korean threat through a Bismarck-policy of forming various alliances, but it also should build strong mechanisms for its security. (2) Bilateral alliance relationships should be strengthened. Although the U.S.-South Korean alliance has recently loosened, it will be of greater strategic value in checking a Chinese threat in the case of deepening Sino-American confrontation in the 21st century. The South Korean-Japanese cooperative relationship has to be more extended in political. military, and cultural areas. The friendly relationship between Seoul and Baijing also should be extended on the basis of their economic cooperation so as to pave the way for the unification of the peninsular. (3) A system of multilateral security cooperation should be created in the Northeast Asia. Although there has been no tradition of security dialogues and confidence among the major powers, the South Korean government has to play a leading role in establishing such a system as an institutional mechanism for the peace and security of the peninsular. Because South Korea, in comparision with the major powers, has limited military capabilities to guarantee its security, it should depend upon preventive diplomacy through multilateral security cooperation in the case of a crisis in the peninsular or territorial and maritime disputes in the region. (4) Certain measures should be taken to reinforce South Korean armed forces in the direction of attaining self-reliant national defense. Based on a self-sufficient defense strategy, the armed forces have to be capable of defending against any probable external invasions. In preparation for the existing North Korean threat as well as for any expansionist moves resulting from Sino-American hegemonic competion and the military buildups of China and Japan, South Korea should strengthen its naval forces and accelerate the modernization of military equipments and weapons. The above-mentioned measures are necessary for maintaining peace and security in Northeast Asia and the peninsular. Moreover. they will provide a basis for Korean unification.

동북아 관광협력체제 구축과 한반도

이기종 경희대학교 인류사회재건연구원 2007 OUGHTOPIA Vol.22 No.1

국가간의 관광협력은 국제관광을 저해하는 각종 장애 요인을 제거하고 국제관광의 발전을 통해 상호 이익을 도모하기 위한 국가 간의 공동 노력을 의미한다. 국가들은 경제적ㆍ기술적으로 서로 연계하면서 하나의 상호의존적인 국경 없는 세계를 지역적으로 형성해 가고 있다. 동북아시아 지역의 자연경관, 문화적 우수성에서의 관광자원이 구미에 비해 떨어지지 않음에도 불구하고 인바운드를 포함한 관광발전이 지연되었음에는 지역협력시스템이 제대로 작동되지 않고 있음이 주요 요인이라고 파악되었다. 동북아시아는 문화적 다양성이 존재하나 문화충돌이 서구, 아랍권에 비해 덜하고 공존하고 있으며, 동북아시아 각국이 경제ㆍ관광 발전을 적극적으로 추구함은 동북아시아 협력체제 추진에 순기능적 요소가 될 것이다. 그러나 동북아시아는 동북아의 분단국 문제, 영토분쟁, 중ㆍ일 경쟁 구도와 함께 최근 북한 핵실험으로 각국의 핵개발 경쟁 가능성 등 위협요인이 경제ㆍ관광 협력 체제를 추진하는 크나큰 장애요인이 되고 있다. 동북아시아 협력체제 구축과 장차 동북아시아 공동체를 모색함에 있어서는 기능주의 통합 이론에서의 ‘가능한 현실적인 공동이익의 향유를 통한 공감대 형성’이 촉발요인이 되고 있는 바, 동북아시아 각국이 협력 가능한 모든 부문을 찾아야 할 것이나, 특히 관광교류협력은 이 지역에서의 평화를 수립하고 문화ㆍ경제 발전에 기여를 하게 되어 동북아시아 공동체 모색에 가장 큰 모멘텀을 제공하게 될 것이다.

ATS 기계 판막의 10년 임상경험

이기종,배미경,임상현,유경종,장병철,홍유선 대한흉부외과학회 2006 Journal of Chest Surgery (J Chest Surg) Vol.39 No.12

배경: 저자들은 ATS 기계 판막의 10년간의 임상결과 및 판막 관련 합병증을 조사하여 해당 판막의 안정성을 평가하고자 하였다. 대상 및 방법: 1995년 7월부터 2005년 3월까지 ATS 인공판막으로 수술을 시행 받은 305명의 환자들을 대상으로 하였다. 환자들의 평균 나이는 49.8 11.7세였고 남자가 140명(45.6%)이었다. 판막 대치술의 원인으로는 류마티스성 판막질환이 207예(67.4%), 판막의 퇴행성 변화가 57예(18.6%, 이엽성 대동맥 판막 포함), 이전에 이식한 판막의 기능부전이 23예(7.5%), 감염성 심내막염이 14예(4.6%) 등이었다. 시행했던 수술로는 대동맥판막 치환술이 72예(23.5%), 승모판막 치환술이 156예(50.8%), 이중판막 치환술(AVR MVR)이 63예(20.5%), 삼첨판막 치환술을 포함한 경우가 16예(5.2%)였다. 결과: 수술 관련 사망은 9예 있었다(사망률; 2.9%). 추적 관찰 기간은 56.5 34.0 (0∼115) 개월이었고 누적 추적 관찰률은 96.4%였으며, 이 중 9명의 환자가 만기 사망하였다. Kaplan-Meier 생존 분석을 이용한 5년과 10년의 통계 결과들은 생존율이 94.9 1.3%, 91.2 2.3%였으며, 판막과 관련된 사건이 없을 확률은 90.8 2.0%, 86.9 3.2%였다. 판막과 관련된 합병증으로는 출혈 관련 합병증이 16예로 가장 많았고, 혈전색전증 관련 합병증이 6예, 인공 판막 심내막염이 3예, 판막 변연부 누출이 1예 등이었다. 수술 후 환자들의 NYHA class는 유의하게 호전되었다(p<0.05). 심초음파로 측정한 수술 전후 심장 크기에 있어서는 좌심방과 확장기말 및 수축기말의 좌심실 크기 모두에 있어서 수술 후 유의한 감소를 확인할 수 있었다(p<0.01). 대동맥 판막 크기에 따른 판막 전후의 압력차에 관한 분석에서는 19 mm와 21 mm의 판막을 사용한 경우가 그보다 큰 판막을 사용한 경우에 비하여 유의하게 큰 것을 확인할 수 있었다(p<0.001, p<0.001). 결론: 10년간의 사용결과 ATS 인공판막은 우수한 혈역학적 결과와 함께 낮은 판막과 관련된 합병증의 빈도를 나타내었다. ATS 기계 판막은 임상적으로 비교적 안전하게 사용할 수 있는 판막이라고 생각된다.

경쟁사업자간의 협력에 대한 공정거래법원칙의 적용완화에 관한 연구

이기종 한국상사법학회 2004 商事法硏究 Vol.23 No.1

국가의 고등교육 예산 - 우리나라의 R&D 투자 현황과 대학

이기종,Lee, Gi-Jong 한국대학교육협의회 2014 大學敎育 Vol.186 No.-

탈 추격형 R&D 전략 하 산업기술 R&D의 방향 탐색

이기종,이흥권,김성수,김숙현 한국행정학회 2011 한국행정학회 학술발표논문집 Vol.2011 No.-

공정거래법 심결사례 해설 및 평석

이기종 한국공정경쟁연합회 2000 경쟁저널 Vol.- No.64

경쟁정책과 소비자정책의 상승작용 촉진방안

이기종 한국상사법학회 2010 商事法硏究 Vol.28 No.4

Recent reform of the consumer law in Korea allowed the Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) to take the lead in implementing both the consumer law and the competition law. However, there still exist a variety of consumer legislations that are implemented by various government agencies other than KFTC, and there is a long way to go to maximize the synergy between the consumer law and the competition law. Further the recent development concerning the FTAs between Korea and the US and the EU demands more close interface between those two areas of law. Thus this article presents measures to implement and reform the two areas of law in such a way that could maximize the synergy between them. The consumer law and the competition law share a common goal of maximizing consumer welfare, however, they apply different methodology in obtaining that goal: the former approaches the issue from the supply side of the market, while the latter from its demand side. They also apply different policy measures, and are regarded as being in a complementary relationship. But they sometimes reveal conflicts with each other. Therefore a more harmonious implementation of the two areas of law is crucial in maximizing the synergy between them. First, we should focus more on conducts that harm consumer interest in implementing the competition law. Second, the KFTC should assist consumers and the courts in antitrust damage suits. Third, class action, parens patriae suit, consent decree and injunction suit should be introduced to guarantee substantial remedy of consumer damages. Fourth, the unfair trade practices should be regulated under the consumer law by the KFTC. Fifth, the ties between the consumer authority and the competition authority should be strengthened and the consumer organizations should play a more active role in implementing the competition law as well as the consumer law.

개의 파행진단 계획(앞다리)

이기종 로얄에이알씨 주식회사 2008 로얄동물임상의학 Vol.6 No.3

급성 심근 경색 후 협심증 환자에서의 관상동맥 우회술 후 좌심실 수축 기능의 호전

이기종,박성용,임상현,홍유선,유경종,장병철 대한흉부외과학회 2006 Journal of Chest Surgery (J Chest Surg) Vol.39 No.9

배경: 급성 심근경색증은 치사율이 높은 질환으로 일부 환자들에 있어서 수술은 중요한 역할을 한다. 본 연구에서는 급성 심근 경색증 후 협심증으로 수술을 시행 받은 환자들에서 심근벽 운동지수와 좌심실 박출계수의 변화를 통하여 수술 후 좌심실 수축력 변화를 조사하고자 하였다. 대상 및 방법: 2001년 1월부터 2004년 12월까지 급성 심근 경색증을 진단 받고 2주 이내에 수술한 환자들을 대상으로 하였다. 수술 전과 수술 후의 심근벽 운동지수와 좌심실 박출계수를 비교하였으며 이에 관련된 인자들을 조사하였다. 결과: 심근벽 운동지수는 1.54±4.30에서 수술 후 1.43±0.40 (p<0.001)으로 감소되었고, 좌심실 박출계수는 48.1±12.2%에서 49.7±12.3% (p=0.009)로 호전되었다. 무심폐기하 관상동맥 수술, 비 Q파 경색, 전벽(anterior) 경색과 경색 후 7일 이내 수술한 경우는 좌심실 박출계수 호전에 관계된 인자였다(p=0.046, p=0.006, p=0.003, p=0.005). 반면에 상기 인자들은 심근벽 운동지수의 호전과는 관계가 없었다. 삼혈관질환을 가진 환자들을 대상으로 하였을 때, 완전 재관류는 심근벽 운동지수 향상에 영향을 미치는 요소였다(p<0.001). 결론: 급성 심근경색증 환자들에 있어서 관상동맥 우회술은 심근벽 운동지수와 좌심실 박출계수의 호전을 가져오며 이는 좌심실 수축기능 호전의 근거로 설명될 수 있다. 특히 비 Q파 전벽성(anterior) 경색인 경우 7일 이내의 조기 수술은 좌심실 박출계수를 호전시키는 데 도움을 줄 것으로 생각되며, 완전 재관류는 심근벽 운동지수의 향상에 중요한 역할을 하는 것으로 생각된다.