구소련해체후 미중관계와 향후전망

안병준 한국전략문제연구소 1997 전략연구 Vol.4 No.1

After communism and the Cold War ended in 1989 and the Soviet Union itself collapsed in 1991, Sino-American relations began to be strained and eventually came to a confrontation in the Taiwan Strait in March 1996. Why did the Sino-American rapprochement reached in the 1970's and 1980's turn into confrontation? How did this change take place and what have been the most salient issues in dispute? And what are the prospects for their resolution? How these issues will impact on the Korean peninsula and what should South Korea be doing about them? These are some of the questions this study is addressing here. The fundamental reason why Sino-American detente has turned into confrontation is that their common enemy has disappeared since the Soviet Union demised. Now that they have no longer a strategic adversary, their bilateral relations are bound to reflect demands of their domestic politics and events of power rivalry. As a results of conflicts between a pluralist political system and a communist one party dictatorship, and between the only super power and a rising new power, Sino-American relations have contained more conflicts and confrontation. Further exacerbating these conflicts is weak leadership and the rise of democratization and independence movements in Taiwan. Sino-American relations have to be redefined in this changing internal and external situation by exploring areas of common interests. Details of these issues will be analyzed below. For better understanding, several core contents are summarized here : First, Sino-American relations began to sour when the U.S. launched its criticism of the human rights situation in China after Beijing cracked down on the democratization movement during the Tienanmen incident while Mikhail Gorvachev was visiting China in June 1989. But they really came to a confrontation When Washington issues a visit to President Li Denghui in June 1995. Second, differences over such issues as human rights, trade, nonprolifer-ation and Taiwan deepened. Further reinforcing them was fact that the military was rising in profile in China, that the Republican Party controlled the Congress, and that the Kuomintang government in Taiwan was seeking independence and international recognition by all means at its disposal. Much more important was the change that the U.S as the only superpower was defending the status quo while China as a rising power was challenging the U.S. led world order. There has been no consensus about the proper role of China in the international system that is undergoing profound transformation. Third, the prospects for Sino-American relations depend on what kinds of change take place in China's domestic and foreign policy. As of now two diverging imperatives are emerging. Political imperatives are working toward sovereignty, nationalism and balance power but economic imperatives are working toward reform, opening and interdependence. Suppose that the military prevails in upholding political imperatives while enhancing military power and economic growth, the communist one party system will reveal hegemonism in its foreign policy. In contrast, if a basic transformation is accomplished in China by undertaking democratization and privatization, such reformed and open system may well accommodate some form of multi-lateral security talks or a concert of powers by cooperating with the U.S. on regional and bilateral issues. Or China can sustain an authoritarian system involving a one party regime and an market economy, her foreign policy will reveal continuing efforts at balance of power to play off one power against the other in the ancient tradition of "using barbarians to control barbarians." Given the current trend that China basically subscribes to realism and has a great deal of suspicions about the U.S., the third scenario is highly likely to take place. In this case, Sino-American relations are destined to have conflicts and cooperation depending on issues and personalities. Fourth, from the standpoint of South Korea, better Sino-American relations are in the interest of peace and stability, and unification on the Korean peninsula.. While coordinating their respective policies toward China, South Korea needs to develop its independent bilateral relations by promoting military, security, economic dialogues and cooperation with China so that China can be engaged in the peace and the unification process. It is important for Koreans to correctly understand the dynamics of Sino-American and Sino-Korean relations as far as the peninsula is concerned. More than anything else, we should have realistic and strategic perspectives in coordinating our policies. South Korea shares more security and political interests with the U.S. On the other hand, China's cooperation is crucial in achieving peace and stability, and eventual unification. It is unrealistic for South Korea to practice "an equidistance diplomacy" or mediation between the U.S. and China. What we can do realistically is to build bridges and confidence by first maintaining a regional alliance with the U.S. for unification and stability while trying to minimize China's opposition and negative act. It is time for us to make serious efforts to formulate a national strategy towards these goals and to implement a proactive diplomacy to achieve them.

미·북관계의 전개 : 쟁점과 전망 Issues and Prospects

안병준 한국전략문제연구소 1998 전략연구 Vol.5 No.1

U.S.-North Korean relations are turning from confrontation to normalization after the end of the Cold War. Now that the Soviet Union is gone and the Cold War over, North Korea is no longer a direct threat to the U.S.. On the other hand, the U.S. has become the only superpower that can ensure the survival and development of North Korea. The overall direction of U.S.-North Korean relations will develop toward normalization but when and how this will be realized will be subject to constraints of North-South Korean relations and U.S.-North Korean relations. As of October 1997. they are at the stage of opening their bilateral negotiation. Whether they will go beyond this level will depends on how North Korea undergoes under Kim Jong 11 who has just assumed the post relationship with South Korea. Major issues at stake in these relations include the Geneva Framework Agreement, negotiation on missile and U.S. soldiers missed in action. establishing liaison offices, and resuming four-party of North-South Korean and U.S.-South Korean relations is the most thorny issue of all the North's refusal to talk with the South while trying to negotiate a peace agreement with the U.S. ostensibly to replace the armistice has been the most important obstacle to improving U.S. relations with the North. North Korea has succeeded in improving its relations with the U.S. by resorting to a diplomacy of brinkmanship especially in dealing with nuclear issues so that the U.S. can ensure its survival and legitimacy. The U.S. in turn, has come to negotiate with the North to achieve global nuclear nonproliferation and some results in missile exports and MIA issues. Since these enabled the North to negotiate with the U.S. while refusing to do so with the South, North-South Korean relations have worsened. The prospects for U.S.-North Korean relations will depend on what change takes place in the North and in North-South Korean relations in the years to come. In order for the U.S. and South Korea to facilitate U.S.-North Korean relations in harmony and in parallel with North-South Korean relations. they must sustain their common agenda for the peace and unification process by redefining their bilateral alliance against war into a regional alliance for unification in the peninsula and stability in Northeast Asia. To do so, they also need to build public support and to engage China in the process.

지방자치의 문제와 과제

안병준 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2000 東西硏究 JOURNAL OF EAST AND WEST STUDIES Vol.12 No.1

이 글은 한국지방자치가 당면한 문제점들과 앞으로 해결해야 할 과제들을 분석하기 위하여 씌어졌다. 구체적으로 이 글에서 저자는 지방정부가 겪고 있는 국책사업과의 갈등, 법제정, 인사 및 치안에서 갖는 제약, 행정구역간의 중복 및 혼란, 지방공무원의 능력부족, 그리고 외국과의 고립 등을 문제점으로 지적했다. 이들을 해결하기 위해서는 지방과 중앙간에 균형된 관계를 정립하고 법으로 현안, 재정, 조직 및 전문화 및 외교 면에서 자립도를 높여가야 할 것이다. 저자는 무엇보다도 시민사회가 활성화하여 시민들의 자치하려는 의지와 능력을 확보할 때 지방자치가 발전 될 것임을 강조했다.

첨단과학 교사연수사업

안병준 전북대학교 과학교육연구소 2008 과학교육 뉴스레터 Vol.66 No.-

집중분석:북방외교대책의 새 죄표

안병준 북한연구소 1988 北韓 Vol.- No.195

특집:북괴외교 그조전과시련의진상-미.일.중공 2각관계와 남북한,중공의 실용노선과 북한대내정책,비동맹세력변화와 북한외교정책

안병준,유정렬,김갑철 북한연구소 1979 北韓 Vol.- No.86

韓國人口政策의 評價

安秉俊 연세대학교 행정대학원 1980 延世行政論叢 Vol.7 No.-

比較近代化와 比較公共政策에 관한 小考

安秉俊 延世大學校 東西問題硏究院 1988 東西硏究 JOURNAL OF EAST AND WEST STUDIES Vol.1 No.1

[특집 : 사회과학의 인간주의적 접근 : 문제와 반성] 社會科學과 政策硏究

안병준 한국인문사회과학회 1978 현상과 인식 Vol.2 No.2

임신 중 발생한 肘關節外側上顆炎 환자 치험 1례

안병준,송호섭 대한침구의학회 2011 대한침구의학회지 Vol.28 No.4

Objectives : To report the patient in pregnancy with external epicondylitis, who improved by acupuncture and bee venom pharmacopuncture therapy. Methods : The patient was treated by acupuncture and bee venom pharmacopuncture therapy on external epicondylitis. The improvement of the symptom was evaluated by visual analog scale(VAS) and grip strength. Results and Conclusions : After treatment, VAS and grip strength were significantly improved. In this case, we found that the acupuncture and bee venom pharmacopuncture therapy is effective for external epicondylitis.