Kazakhstan's economic soft balancing policy vis-à-vis Russia: From the Eurasian Union to the economic cooperation with Turkey

Lyailya Nurgaliyeva 한양대학교 아태지역연구센터 2016 Journal of Eurasian Studies Vol.7 No.1

What has been the reaction of Kazakhstan toward the rising power and influence of Russia since 1994? This paper uses the concept of soft-balancing, specifically analyzing economic issues using Stephen Walt's balance of threats approach, in an analysis of Kazakhstan's relationship with Russia. It examines instances of Kazakhstan's internal and external economic soft balancing efforts vis-à-vis Russia to explain how it used economic tools to protect its energy security from Russia. After 1991, which marked the collapse of the Soviet Union, the newly independent countries of the former Soviet Union – the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including Kazakhstan, needed to create an institution that could tackle economic and energy problems in the region. I argue that the Eurasian Union idea promoted by the president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, was a skillful attempt to simultaneously maintain a close cooperation with Russia and to soft balance against Russia's influence through collaboration with other CIS countries. However, that initiative failed and did not have the intended economic soft balancing effect. When Russia started asserting its economic and political power over the Central Asian and Caspian regions, Nazarbayev once again resorted to the economic soft balancing policy, but this time by relying on outside players. Part 2 of this article discusses two cases of such external economic soft balancing efforts: participation in the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline project, and the economic cooperation with Turkey as part of a free trade zone. The BTC pipeline project and the close economic cooperation with Turkey ended up being a more productive soft balancing effort than the earlier Eurasian Union initiative. What has been the reaction of Kazakhstan toward the rising power and influence of Russia since 1994? This paper uses the concept of soft-balancing, specifically analyzing economic issues using Stephen Walt's balance of threats approach, in an analysis of Kazakhstan's relationship with Russia. It examines instances of Kazakhstan's internal and external economic soft balancing efforts vis-à-vis Russia to explain how it used economic tools to protect its energy security from Russia. After 1991, which marked the collapse of the Soviet Union, the newly independent countries of the former Soviet Union – the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including Kazakhstan, needed to create an institution that could tackle economic and energy problems in the region. I argue that the Eurasian Union idea promoted by the president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, was a skillful attempt to simultaneously maintain a close cooperation with Russia and to soft balance against Russia's influence through collaboration with other CIS countries. However, that initiative failed and did not have the intended economic soft balancing effect. When Russia started asserting its economic and political power over the Central Asian and Caspian regions, Nazarbayev once again resorted to the economic soft balancing policy, but this time by relying on outside players. Part 2 of this article discusses two cases of such external economic soft balancing efforts: participation in the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline project, and the economic cooperation with Turkey as part of a free trade zone. The BTC pipeline project and the close economic cooperation with Turkey ended up being a more productive soft balancing effort than the earlier Eurasian Union initiative.

미중 전략경쟁과 베트남의 대중국 전략: 헤징에서 연성균형 전략으로

조원득 ( Wondeuk Cho ),이상숙 ( Sang-sook Lee ) 조선대학교 동북아연구소(구 통일문제연구소) 2020 동북아연구 Vol.35 No.2

연구는 베트남의 위협인식 변화에 따른 베트남의 대중국 전략이 헤징에서 연성균형으로 변화했음을 설명하였다. 역사적으로 대중국 위협 인식이 높은 베트남은 1979년 중국과의 전쟁 이후 중국과 국교를 단절하였다가, 탈냉전 이후 1991년 중국, 1995년 미국과 차례로 국교를 정상화하면서 대중국 헤징 전략을 취하였다. 베트남의 대중국 위협인식이 높아지면 베트남은 헤징에서 균형 방향으로 전략을 이동하게 되는데, 이 경우 중국에 대한 경제적 의존과 국력의 비대칭성을 고려하여 제 3국과의 동맹을 기반으로 하는 경성균형이 아닌 연성균형을 선택하게 된다. 먼저 베트남은 해양방위 역량의 약세 등 대중국 군사력 비대칭성과 경제적 의존으로 인해 비군사적 연성균형 전략을 추진하였다. 베트남은 중국의 공세적 베트남 영유권 침해에 대한 항의 성명발표와 유엔 등 국제기구 및 국제사회에서 중국의 불법 행위 공론화 등으로 중국의 입지를 약화하는 비군사적 연성균형 전략을 추구하였다. 그러나 남중국해에서 중국의 공세적군사 행동이 증가함에 따라 군사적 연성균형 전략을 추구하기 시작하였다. 무엇보다도 베트남은 미국과의 연합 군사훈련 실시, 베트남군의 미국 내 훈련 프로그램 참여, 미국해양 경비정의 인수 등의 방법으로 해양방위 역량을 강화하고 있다. 동시에 베트남은 일본, 호주, 인도 등 쿼드 국가(4개국 안보협력체)들과의 군사안보 협력도 확대하고 있다. 이러한 측면에서 본 연구는 남중국해에서 벌어지고 있는 미중 전략경쟁과 베트남의 대중국 위협인식 변화를 반영하여 베트남의 대중국 전략이 헤징에서 연성균형으로, 특히 비군사적 연성균형에 군사적 연성균형으로 이동하였음을 분석하였다. This study explains the change in Vietnam’s strategy toward China in response to the change of its threat-perceptions to China, from ‘hedging’ to ‘balancing,’ with regard to a continuous policy spectrum. Vietnam, which has historically been highly aware of China’s threats, severed its relationship with China after the war against China in 1979. But Vietnam normalized its diplomatic relations with China in 1991 due to the Sino-Russian rapprochement after the post-Cold War. It adopted a hedging strategy toward China since the normalization with the US. When Vietnam’s threat perceptions to China has deepened, Vietnam adopted a balancing strategy instead of a hedging. In this case, it considered the economic interdependence with China and Sino-Vietnam power asymmetry, and therefore, selected a soft balancing rather than a hard balancing. Vietnam announced a statement in protest against China’s assertive behaviors and violation of Vietnam’s sovereignty. In addition, Vietnam appeals to international institutions such as the United Nations and international community about China’s illegal activities in order to internationalize the South China Sea disputes, to weaken China’s position and to gain support from other countries. However, As China’s revisionist and offensive military activities in the South China Sea have not been suppressed, but rather increased, Vietnam began to change its strategy to military soft balancing strategy. Above all, Vietnam is strengthening its maritime defense capabilities by increasing its defense and security cooperation with the United States, including joint exercises, military training, and transfer of US patrol boats to Vietnam’s coast guards. At the same time, Vietnam is expanding its military security cooperation US security partners(so-called Quad countries) including Australia, India, and Japan. In this respect, this study analyzes that Vietnam is changing its strategy from hedging strategy to soft balancing, and especially strengthening military soft balancing in addition to non-military soft balancing, reflecting changes in the international political environment and Vietnamese perception of threat to China in the South China Sea.

북핵문제 외교적 해법의 실패원인과 시사점

조성렬(Seong-Ryoul Cho) 고려대학교 일민국제관계연구원 2014 국제관계연구 Vol.19 No.2

북한 핵문제의 해결을 위한 접근법에는 비외교적 방식과 외교적 방식이 있다. 선제공격에 의한 핵시설 파괴나 정권교체에 의한 정치적 해결과 같은 비외교적 방식도 고려할 수 있지만 자칫 전쟁을 유발할 수 있다는 점 때문에 적극적으로 추진되지는 않았다. 그 대신에 경제적 보상의 제공이나 안보 우려의 해소를 통해 북한의 핵 포기와 교환하는 외교적 해법이 추진되었다. 그런데 6자회담을 통한 외교적 노력이 북한의 핵무기 보유를 막지 못했다는 점에서 실패로 규정할 수 있다. 실패원인은 북한의 핵심적인 안보자산인 핵프로그램을 경제적 보상으로 해결할 수 있다고 본 경제-안보 교환론의 한계에 있다. 그런 점에서 북한 핵문제의 진전을 위해서는 안보-안보 교환 접근법이 필요하다. 북한의 합리적 안보 우려를 해소해주기 위한 안보-안보 교환에는 경성균형과 연성균형의 방식이 있다. 6자회담의 최대 성과라고 할 수 있는 ?9.19공동성명?은 안보-안보 교환을 통해 연성균형의 실현을 약속한 것이다. 하지만 김정은 정권이 들어서면서 북한은 연성균형 대신에 독자적인 핵무기 보유를 통한 경성균형을 추구하고 있다. 북한이 핵무기보유국을 선언하고 있기 때문에, 북한의 비핵화를 목표로 하고 있는 6자회담은 재개조차 못하고 있는 것이다. 북한이 병진노선을 견지하면서 경성균형을 추구하는 한, 설사 6자회담이 재개된다 하더라도 소기의 목적을 이루기는 어렵다. 북한이 핵무기 보유국이라고 주장하는 상황에서, 병진노선을 포기시키고 북핵문제를 외교적으로 해결하기 위해서는 북한의 합리적인 안보 우려를 해결해 줄 수 있는 안보-안보교환에 따른 대담한 연성균형 방안이 마련되어야 할 것이다. There are two approaches to resolve the North Korean nuke issue; non-diplomatic and diplomatic one. Probabilities of success over the destruction of nuke facilities by preemptive strikes, and the political approach to solve North Korea’s nuke issue by regime change may be possible, but it can cause warfare situation between the North and the South. Judging from the course of six-party talks, the strong solution is the diplomatic approach such as trade-off North Korea’s nuke weapons program for economic incentives or guarantee of the North’s security. There are a soft balancing and a hard balancing by the security-security tradeoff for guarantee of the North’s security reducing its reasonable security concerns. At the beginning of the dialogue, the North didn’t make a demand “hard balancing” by nuke deterrence but “soft balancing” such as normalization of the U.S.-North Korea’s relationship and building the Korean peace regime at the cost of its abandonment of all nuke programs in North Korea. However, the North is pursuing “hard balancing” instead of “soft balancing” and declared nuclear-armed state overtly after the advents of Kim Jong-Un’s regime. Because of this the North’s changed attitude, it couldn’t even be able to resume the Six-party talks. As far as the North adheres to the strategic line on carrying out economic construction and building nuclear armed forces simultaneously, the Six-party talks cannot be achieved its aim though it will be resumed. Therefore, a new bold suggestion of ‘soft balancing’ based on security-security trade-off approach should be prepared for making abandonment of the North’s strategic line and its nuke programs diplomatically.

Hard, Soft, Smart? North Korea and Power : It’s All Relative

VIRGINIE GRZELCZYK Institute for International Trade and Cooperation, 2017 Asian International Studies Review Vol.18 No.1

North Korea is notable for its isolation, yet the Korean Central News Agency’s daily editions are filled with articles outlining international admiration for Pyongyang and its leader. Is Pyongyang actively promoting soft power as an integral part of not only its survival, but its development strategy? While scholarship on North Korea tends to focus on Pyongyang’s “high profile” relations with China or Russia (Shambaugh 2003, McCormack 2004, Wu 2005) or with nations seeking to cooperate on weapons of mass destruction (Henriksen 2001), little attention has been paid to how the DPRK engages in seemingly peaceful ways with the world. This article examines the notion of hard, soft, smart and other power declensions, and applies a soft-power framework to investigate DPRK rhetoric and the development of partnerships with both states and non-state actors. It suggests that the DPRK has long pursued a strategy of diplomatic diversification, which includes a more sophisticated understanding of power than previously considered in the literature.

Effects of Negative Pressure Soft Tissue Therapy to Ankle Plantar Flexor on Muscle Tone, Muscle Stiffness, and Balance Ability in Patients with Stroke

김규령,신형수,이상빈,황현숙,신희준 국제물리치료연구학회 2018 Journal of International Academy of Physical Ther Vol.9 No.2

The purpose of the study was to investigate the immediate effects of negative pressure soft tissue therapy on muscle tone, muscle stiffness and balance in patients with stroke. In total, 20 patients with stroke and assigned to the negative pressure soft tissue therapy group (NPST, n=10) or, placebo-negative pressure soft tissue therapy group(Placebo-NPST, n=10). Both groups underwent NPST or placebo-NPST once a day during the experimental period. MyotonPRO was used to assess the parameters for muscle tone and stiffness. Biorescue was used to assess the parameters for balance. Each group showed improvements in muscle tone, muscle stiffness, and balance ability (p<.05). Especially, Muscle tone, muscle stiffness, and anterior length in the limit of stability were the significant improvement on NPST group (p<.05). The results of the study suggest that the NPST is effective in improving muscle tone, muscle stiffness, and balance ability in patients with stroke.

Effects of Negative Pressure Soft Tissue Therapy to Ankle Plantar Flexor on Muscle Tone, Muscle Stiffness, and Balance Ability in Patients with Stroke

Kim, Kyu Ryeong,Shin, Houng Soo,Lee, Sang Bin,Hwang, Hyun Sook,Shin, Hee Joon International Academy of Physical Therapy Research 2018 Journal of International Academy of Physical Ther Vol.9 No.2

The purpose of the study was to investigate the immediate effects of negative pressure soft tissue therapy on muscle tone, muscle stiffness and balance in patients with stroke. In total, 20 patients with stroke and assigned to the negative pressure soft tissue therapy group (NPST, n=10) or, placebo-negative pressure soft tissue therapy group(Placebo-NPST, n=10). Both groups underwent NPST or placebo-NPST once a day during the experimental period. MyotonPRO was used to assess the parameters for muscle tone and stiffness. Biorescue was used to assess the parameters for balance. Each group showed improvements in muscle tone, muscle stiffness, and balance ability (p<.05). Especially, Muscle tone, muscle stiffness, and anterior length in the limit of stability were the significant improvement on NPST group (p<.05). The results of the study suggest that the NPST is effective in improving muscle tone, muscle stiffness, and balance ability in patients with stroke.

Analysis on Bilateral Relations between Brazil and the EU from the Soft Balancing Perspective

Chung-hung Cho 부산외국어대학교 중남미지역원 2017 이베로아메리카 Vol.19 No.1

Brazil’s traditional diplomatic strategy is “balancing the US position and bandwagoning the EU”. However, these realistic views, namely, balancing and bandwagoning, have not explained the strategic choice of Brazil. This paper discusses the evolution of the relationship between Brazil and the EU and attempts to redefine their bilateral relation. Three current situations and hypothetical developments are used as the main axis of the structure of the article: the economic alliance between Brazil and the EU, a multilateral strategic partnership between both parties and bilateral relations as both a partnership and a competition. The relations between both parties have shown a strategic alliance formed by the link of the issue, which excludes the cooperation on hard military issues and selects the alliance on soft issues. The concept with both balancing and bandwagoning is adopted to reach a diplomatic consensus that provides compromise without the loss of autonomy to construct the Brazil’s diplomatic strategy of “soft balancing”.

Effects of Negative Pressure Soft Tissue Therapy to Ankle Plantar Flexor on Muscle Tone, Muscle Stiffness, and Balance Ability in Patients with Stroke

국제물리치료연구학회 국제물리치료연구학회 2018 Journal of International Academy of Physical Ther Vol.9 No.2

The purpose of the study was to investigate the immediate effects of negative pressure soft tissue therapy on muscle tone, muscle stiffness and balance in patients with stroke. In total, 20 patients with stroke and assigned to the negative pressure soft tissue therapy group (NPST, n=10) or, placebo-negative pressure soft tissue therapy group(Placebo-NPST, n=10). Both groups underwent NPST or placebo-NPST once a day during the experimental period. MyotonPRO was used to assess the parameters for muscle tone and stiffness. Biorescue was used to assess the parameters for balance. Each group showed improvements in muscle tone, muscle stiffness, and balance ability (p<.05). Especially, Muscle tone, muscle stiffness, and anterior length in the limit of stability were the significant improvement on NPST group (p<.05). The results of the study suggest that the NPST is effective in improving muscle tone, muscle stiffness, and balance ability in patients with stroke.

Quantification of the Effect of Vertical Bone Resection of the Medial Proximal Tibia for Achieving Soft Tissue Balancing in Total Knee Arthroplasty

Ji Hyun Ahn,이성현,Ho Won Kang 대한정형외과학회 2016 Clinics in Orthopedic Surgery Vol.8 No.1

Background: Degenerative osteoarthritis of the knee usually shows arthritic change in the medial tibiofemoral joint with severe varus deformity. In total knee arthroplasty (TKA), the medial release technique is often used for achieving mediolateral balancing. But, in a more severe varus knee, there are more difficult technical problems. Bony resection of the medial proximal tibia (MPT) as an alternative technique for achieving soft tissue balancing was assessed in terms of its effectiveness and possibility of quantification. Methods: TKAs were performed in 78 knees (60 patients) with vertical bone resection of the MPT for soft tissue balancing from September 2011 to March 2013. During operation, the medial and lateral gaps were measured before and after the bony resection technique. First, the correlation between the measured thickness of the resected bone and the change in medial and lateral gaps was analyzed. Second, the possibility of quantification of each parameter was evaluated by linear regression and the coefficient ratio was obtained. Results: A significant correlation was identified between alteration in the medial gap change in extension and the measured thickness of the vertically resected MPT (r = 0.695, p = 0.000). In the medial gap change in flexion, there was no statistical significance (r = 0.214, p = 0.059). When the MPT was resected at an average thickness of 8.25 ± 1.92 mm, the medial gap in extension was increased by 2.94 ± 0.87 mm. In simple linear regression, it was predictable that MPT resection at a thickness of 2.80 mm was required to increase the medial gap by 1.00 mm in knee extension. Conclusions: The method of bone resection of the MPT can be considered effective with a predictable result for achieving soft tissue balancing in terms of quantification during TKA.

Analysis on Bilateral Relations between Brazil and the EU from the Soft Balancing Perspective

Cho Chung-hung 부산외국어대학교 중남미지역원 2017 이베로아메리카 Vol.19 No.1

Brazil’s traditional diplomatic strategy is “balancing the US position and bandwagoning the EU”. However, these realistic views, namely, balancing and bandwagoning, have not explained the strategic choice of Brazil. This paper discusses the evolution of the relationship between Brazil and the EU and attempts to redefine their bilateral relation. Three current situations and hypothetical developments are used as the main axis of the structure of the article: the economic alliance between Brazil and the EU, a multilateral strategic partnership between both parties and bilateral relations as both a partnership and a competition. The relations between both parties have shown a strategic alliance formed by the link of the issue, which excludes the cooperation on hard military issues and selects the alliance on soft issues. The concept with both balancing and bandwagoning is adopted to reach a diplomatic consensus that provides compromise without the loss of autonomy to construct the Brazil’s diplomatic strategy of “soft balancing”.