변이할당분석을 통한 지역성장률 격차요인 변화와 지역대표산업의 산업경쟁력 분석 - 광주전남을 중심으로 -

나주몽,김재영 한국산업경제학회 2022 산업경제연구 Vol.35 No.2

This study examines the change process of regional growth rate gap factors in Gwangju and Jeonnam region through factor decomposition of regional growth rate gap and presented the characteristics of industrial competitiveness and policy implications by focusing on the regional representative industries of Gwangju and Jeollanam-do. Regional competitiveness comes from various external effects derived from locational aggregation of industries rather than simply from the unique competitiveness of the industry itself, if a region's industrial competitiveness is excellent in relation to industrial competitiveness. Therefore, it is necessary to respond by analyzing the characteristics of industrial competitiveness in terms of industrial structure by examining regional growth through gap factors to see what factors affected the relative stagnation in terms of industrial structure through analysis of regional industrial competitiveness in the local economy. The analysis results are as follows. First, the regional economy in Gwangju and Jeollanam-do was divided into 1st (2000-2005), 2nd (2006-2010), 3rd (2011-2015), and 4th (2016-2019) period for regional growth changes over 19 years. As a result of analysis through factor decomposition of the growth rate gap, industrial structural factors have continuously contributed in a positive (+) direction in Gwangju and Jeonnam after 2010.On the other hand, regional special factors were found to remain at a weak level. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain the strengthening of the industrial structure through innovative growth and to strengthen regional competitiveness through regional special factors. Second, in the dynamic Shift-Share analysis, the characteristics of industrial competitiveness of Gwangju and Jeonnam were considered among the top 10 regional representative industries selected based on the weight of added value for the 4th period (2016-2019) in Gwangju and Jeollanam-do. In particular, in the case of manufacturing in Gwangju, machinery, transportation equipment and other sectors belonged to the growth potential industry type, and the electrical and electronic precision equipment sector belonged to the competition-intensifying industry type. In the case of manufacturing in Jeollanam-do, the non-metallic mineral and metal sector was included in the growth potential industry type, and the coal petrochemical sector was included in the declining industry type. 지역경쟁력은 단순히 개별산업 자체의 고유한 경쟁력이라기보다는 다양한 산업들이 집적되는 과정에서 파생되는 외부적 효과에서 비롯된다. 이에 지역의 산업경쟁력 분석을 통해 산업구조 측면에서 어떠한 요인이 상대적으로 영향을 미쳤는지 살펴보고 산업구조 차원에서 산업경쟁력 특성을 분석하여 대응하는 것이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 광주전남지역을 대상으로 지역성장률 격차의 요인분해를 통해 지역성장률 격차요인의 변화과정을 살펴보고, 동태적 변이할당분석을 통해 광주전남의지역대표산업을 중심으로 한 산업경쟁력의 특성과 정책적 시사점을 제시하였다. 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 19년간의 지역성장 변화를 대상으로 1기(2000~2005 년), 2기(2006~2010년), 3기(2011~2015년), 4기(2016~2019년)로 나누어 광주전남 지역경제의 성장률 격차요인 분해를 통해 분석한 결과 2010년 이후에 산업구조요인은 광주전남지역에서 꾸준히 양(+)의 방향으로 기여하고 있는 반면, 지역특수요인은 미약한 수준에 머물고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 전남의 경우 산업구조요인이나지역특수요인 모두 전국과의 성장격차를 확대하는 데에는 다소 낮은 수준을 유지하고 있었다. 이에, 지역산업 육성은 혁신성장을 통한 산업구조의 강화하는 것을유지하고 지역특수요인에 지역경쟁력을 강화할 필요가 있다. 둘째, 광주전남의 4기(2016~2019년)를 대상으로 동태적 변이할당분석을 통해 부가가치의 비중을 기준으로 선정한 10대 지역대표산업의 산업경쟁력 특성을 고찰하였다. 특히, 광주의 제조업 중에서 기계운송장비기타 부문은 성장잠재산업형에, 전기전자정밀기기 부문은경쟁강화산업형에 속했다. 한편, 전남 제조업의 경우 비금속광물금속 부문은 성장잠재산업형에, 석탄석유화학 부문은 쇠퇴산업형에 포함되어 향후 산업구조의 고도화와 업종의 다각화가 요구된다.

2000년대 지역 간 성장격차

김재훈(KIM Jaehun) 지역사회학회 2017 지역사회학 Vol.18 No.1

저성장 위기론이 확산되면서 지역문제가 새로운 국면에 접어들고 있다. 이 논문은 2000년대 지역 간 성장격차의 추세와 패턴을 분석하고 불평등의 구조적 차원을 밝히는 것이다. 2000년대 인구 측면에서 지역성장의 특징은 광역수도권, 특히 경기지역으로 인구가 집중되면서 고성장, 중간성장, 저성장집단의 세 가지 패턴으로 분화되었다. 고성장집단과 저성장집단 간의 성장격차가 일관되게 확대되면서 저성장집단에 속한 비수도권 지역에서 지역발전을 위한 인적 자원이 가장 빠르게 고갈되는 현상이 나타났다. 광역수도권과 비수도권에 속한 지역들도 성장 집단에 따라 인구성장의 패턴이 분화되었다. 소득 측면에서 지역성장의 특징은 생산 요인과 아울러 분배 요인이 지역 간 성장격차를 초래하는 주요한 요인으로 작용하였다. 성장의 양극화와 역 동조화 추세가 진행되면서 2010년을 변곡점으로 성장격차가 더욱 확대되었다. 지역들은 인구와 소득의 성장경로에 따라 7개의 집단으로 분화되었다. 지역 간 성장격차는 ‘생산과 분배’, ‘성장의 추세와 안정성’의 두 가지 구조에 의해 재생산되어 왔는데, 생산과 분배의 구조에 의해서 지역성장의 추세와 안정성이 결정되어 왔다. 분배는 역외소득의 유출입과 구상과 실행의 공간분업, 지역계층구조를 의미하는 기축 요인으로서 지역 성장격차의 관계적 불평등을 보여준다. 지역 간 성장격차는 단순히 인구와 소득의 불균등한 분포의 문제가 아니라 지역 간의 불평등한 관계에 의해 재생산되어 온 구조적 문제이다. As the era of low growth begins, regional problems are entering a new phase. This paper tries to analyze trends and patterns of regional growth in the 2000s and find out the structural dimensions of regional inequality. The results of research can be summarized as the following. Regional growth in the 2000s can be characterized by population concentration in the metropolitan area, especially in the Gyeonggi area. The pattern of regional growth was differentiated into three-high growth group, middle growth group, and low growth group. As the growth disparities between high growth and low growth group has consistently expanded, human resources for regional development have been depleted most rapidly in some non-metropolitan areas. In particular, this paper argues that distribution factors as well as production ones have had critical impacts as the main factors on regional disparities in growth. The polarization of growth between regional groups, the coupling trend toward reverse direction, and the instability of regional growth have increased in the process of regional growth. The triggering point of widening regional disparities in growth was 2010 due to the global financial crisis, and regions were divided into 7 cells(equivalent classes) according to the growth path of population and income. The structure of regional disparities in growth has been reproduced by two structures: ‘the trend and stability of regional growth’ and ‘production and distribution’. Studies on regional disparities, which have been studied from the economic perspective, have tended to interpret regional disparities in growth as problems of distribution in the amount of locational requirements. However, the regional growth disparities are not simply a problem of uneven distribution of population and income but a structural problem of relational inequality.

Panel Causality of Regional Tourism Development and Economic Growth in China

이성훈,가정혜 한국관광연구학회 2015 관광연구저널 Vol.29 No.10

The purpose of this study is to investigate the causality of regional tourism contribution and regional economic growth in China and to suggest policies for governments in allocating the economic resources. This study examined the causal relationship between regional economic growth and regional tourism development in China by employing annual data of 28 provinces in China from 1978 to 2008. A three-step procedures is used: panel unit root tests of Levin, Lin, and Chu (2002) and Im, Pesaran, and Shin (2003), a panel residual cointegration test proposed by Pedroni (1999), and the Granger non-causality test for heterogeneous panel data developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012). The results of the empirical analyses indicate a unidirectional causality from regional economic growth to regional tourism development in China. Thus, the evidence from this study supports the regional growth-led tourism hypothesis in China, thereby suggesting that regional economic growth increases regional tourism development in China. The findings of this study lead to the suggestion that policymakers invest in regional tourism development to meet economic growth goals because regional economic growth in the Chinese Provinces can be a useful policy to boost regional tourism development. Therefore, sustainable long-term regional economic growth can contribute to the potential of regional tourism development.

Panel Causality of Regional Tourism Development and Economic Growth in China

Seong Hoon Lee,Junghye A. Kah 한국관광연구학회 2015 관광연구저널 Vol.29 No.10

The purpose of this study is to investigate the causality of regional tourism contribution and regional economic growth in China and to suggest policies for governments in allocating the economic resources. This study examined the causal relationship between regional economic growth and regional tourism development in China by employing annual data of 28 provinces in China from 1978 to 2008. A three-step procedures is used: panel unit root tests of Levin, Lin, and Chu (2002) and Im, Pesaran, and Shin (2003), a panel residual cointegration test proposed by Pedroni (1999), and the Granger non-causality test for heterogeneous panel data developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012). The results of the empirical analyses indicate a unidirectional causality from regional economic growth to regional tourism development in China. Thus, the evidence from this study supports the regional growth-led tourism hypothesis in China, thereby suggesting that regional economic growth increases regional tourism development in China. The findings of this study lead to the suggestion that policymakers invest in regional tourism development to meet economic growth goals because regional economic growth in the Chinese Provinces can be a useful policy to boost regional tourism development. Therefore, sustainable long-term regional economic growth can contribute to the potential of regional tourism development.

An Empirical Analysis of FDI, Human Capital and China’s Regional Economic Growth

려아평,송재훈 아시아.유럽미래학회 2018 유라시아연구 Vol.15 No.4

Since the reform and development, China’s economy has grown rapidly and the national income level has been continuously improved. This is closely related to China’s policy of reform and opening up, especially with the large-scale inflow of foreign direct investment under the reform and opening up policy. However, at the same time of rapid growth, China’s regional economic imbalance has become increasingly serious. Due to factors such as policy, market, location, labor force and clustering effects, the scale of FDI use in eastern, central and western China is also significantly different.Since China’s reform and opening up, FDI has flowed into coastal areas in large quantities, which has promoted the rapid development of the economy in the eastern region. However, it is also an indisputable fact that the regional economic development gap has been widened. Coupled with the sloping FDI regional preferential policy arrangement, it has led to the growing economic growth gap between the east and the west and the increasingly uneven regional economic development. These problems will inevitably affect the long-term development and virtuous circle of the Chinese economy. Therefore, under the strategy of “Western Development” and “Rise of Central China”, rational and effective use of foreign direct investment can promote the growth of the central and western economy and narrow the regional economic development gap. Studying the differences and contributions of foreign direct investment to China’s regional economy has certain theoretical and practical significance. First of all, FDI and economic growth have always been hot issues for scholars in macroeconomic research. However, FDI research started in developed countries. Most of the theories about FDI are analyzed from the perspective of the investment home country. The research on the relationship between FDI and economic growth in developing countries is relatively rare. And the research angles are qualitatively researching the status quo of FDI regional differences, the causes of formation, the mechanism of impact on economic growth, and solutions. Moreover, the role of foreign direct investment in economic growth in different regions has also changed due to differences in macro environment and policies. Therefore, studying FDI has far-reaching theoretical significance for China’s economic growth.China’s research on FDI originated in the 1990s, most of them study the relationship between FDI and economic growth through two perspectives. First, under the framework of the neoclassical economic growth theory, the role of FDI as a form of capital in China’s economy is studied. Second, the role of FDI in economic growth through technological spillovers is studied under the framework of the new growth economic theory. Based on the new growth theory, this paper sorts out nearly 10,000 data from 1998 to 2016. Through data analysis and empirical analysis, it provides case experience for FDI and economic growth theory in developing countries, which is beneficial to further research on FDI and economy. Secondly, this paper studies the relationship between FDI, human capital and China’s regional economic growth. It is not only a summary of the use of foreign direct investment in the past 30 years, but also an exploration of the rational use of foreign direct investment in the future. Rational use of foreign investment, with the goal of narrowing regional disparities and promoting balanced development of the regional economy, strive to maximize the role of foreign direct investment in promoting the economy. Based on these research implications, we use the cobb-dauglas production function as a theoretical model to study the relationship between foreign direct investment, domestic investment, human capital and China’s economic growth using panel data from 30 provinces and cities in China from 1998 to 2016. Through the quantitative analysis of panel data, the impa...

지방정부 재정지출과 지역경제 성장, 그리고 재정효율성의 매개효과: 시군구 간 지역적 차이를 반영하여

이미애,서인석 한국정책분석평가학회 2018 政策分析評價學會報 Vol.28 No.4

The purpose of this study is to examine the intermediary effect of the local government finance in relation to the relationship between fiscal expenditure through local government's fiscal activities and regional economic growth. Rather than simply looking at the economic effects of local real estate outflow, it was intended to verify the relationship between fiscal spending and regional economic growth while addressing the intermediary characteristics of efficient execution of local finance. The analysis results are as follows. First, a review of the relationship between local resettlement and regional economic growth suggested the effect on regional economic growth by function and regional characteristics. City and military spending on social development was shown to be positive for regional economic growth, while in Gu, spending on economic development had a positive relationship. Second, when looking at the relationship between fiscal efficiency and regional economic growth, it was found that financial efficiency had a positive relationship to regional economic growth in both economic growth. Third, the relationship between local resettlement and regional economic growth through the medium of financial efficiency showed conflicting social and economic development costs. While social development expenditure has a positive effect on regional economic growth through the medium of fiscal efficiency for regional economic growth, economic development costs have a direct effect on regional economic growth. 본 연구는 지방정부의 재정활동을 통한 재정지출과 지역경제 성장의 관계에 있어 재정지출 효율성의 매개효과를 살펴보는 것을 목적으로 한다. 단순히 지방재정지출의 경제적 효과를 살펴보는 것이 아니라 재정지출과 지역경제 성장의 관계를 검증함과 동시에 지방재정의 효율적 집행의 매개적 특성을 함께 다루고자 하였다. 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 지방재정지출과 지역경제 성장과의 관계를 살펴본 결과, 기능별, 지역별 특성에 따라 지역경제 성장에 미치는 효과가 상의하게 나타났다. 둘째, 재정효율성과 지역경제 성장과의 관계를 살펴본 결과, 시군구 모두 재정효율성이 지역경제 성장에 긍정적인 관계를 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 재정효율성을 매개로 지방재정지출과 지역경제성장에 미치는 관계는 사회개발비와 경제개발비가 상반된 결과를 나타냈다. 사회개발비의 경우 지역경제 성장에 있어 재정효율성을 매개로 지역경제 성장에 긍정적 영향을 미치는 반면, 경제개발비는 지역경제성장에 직접적인 효과를 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 경제개발비 지출의 경우 직접효과를 통해 경제성장에 영향을 미치지만, 사회개발비 지출의 경우는 재정지출의 효율성을 매개로 하여 간접적으로 지역경제 성장에 효과를 미치는 것이다. 이를 통해 본 연구는 재정활동을 통한 재정지출이 장기적으로 어떤 과정을 거쳐 이루어지는지 설명하고 정책적 함의를 제시하였다.

지역경제 성장에 따른 지역 내부의 경제적 격차 추정에 관한 연구

이주한,김동현 한국지역학회 2020 지역연구 Vol.36 No.3

The aims of this study to identify the relationship between regional economic growth and intraregional regional disparities. The 16 metropolitan area, the Capital region and the southeastern region of Korea were put in the spatial scope and the time range from 2005 to 2016. Regional gross domestic product data were used to show regional growth and intraregional disparity. Panel data for each spatial unit were established, panel unit root test and panel cointegration test were conducted to check the stability of the data. The DOLS method was used to identify relationship between regional economic growth and intraregional disparity, and the VECM model and Granger causality test was conducted to verify causality. The result of analysis of 16 metropolitan area units showed that the intraregional disparity increases as regional economic growth progresses. When the regional gross domestic product increased by 1%, the intraregional disparity increased by 1.258%, and there are short-term and long-term causality. Both the Capital region and the southeastern region had a mutual relationship between regional economic growth and intraregional disparity, but the disparity in the Capital region showed an increase and the southeastern region showed a decrease. The results of this study show that the regional disparity is increasing nationwide, but the Capital region and the southeastern region showed different stages of growth. 이 연구의 목적은 지역경제 성장과 지역 내 격차 간 관계를 파악하는 것이다. 우리나라 16개 광역지자체, 수도권, 동남권을 공간적 범위로 하였으며 2005년부터 2016년까지를 시간적 범위로 하였다. 지역경제 성장과 지역 내 격차는 지역내총생산 자료를 이용하였다. 각 공간단위별 패널자료를 구축한 다음 자료의 안정성을 확인하기 위해 패널단위근 검정과 패널공적분 검정을 시행하였으며, 지역경제 성장과 지역 내 격차 간 관계는 DOLS 방법을 이용하였으며, 인과성 검증을 위해서 VECM모형과 그랜져인과관계 검정을 시행하였다. 16개 광역지자체 단위를 대상으로 분석한 결과 지역경제 성장이 진행됨에 따라 지역 내부 격차는 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 지역 내 총생산이 1% 증가할 때 지역 내부 격차는 1.258% 증가하였으며, 단기 및 장기적 인과관계가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 수도권과 동남권은 모두 지역경제 성장과 지역 내부 격차 증감이 상호 간 인관관계성이 있었으나, 수도권은 격차가 증가하는 양상을 보였으며 동남권은 감소하는 양상으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과는 지역 내 격차가 전국적으로 증가하고 있으나 수도권과 비수도권을 대표하는 광역경제권인 동남권의 양상은 서로 다름을 보여주었으며 서로 상이한 성장단계에 있음을 확인하였다는데 의의가 있다.

중국 지역의 금융발전과 경제성장에 관한 연구

남수중 ( Soo Joong Nam ),필위녕 ( Wei Ning Bi ) 한국외국어대학교 중국연구소 2012 中國硏究 Vol.56 No.-

This article includes the empirical analysis which is used provincial statistical data sets. We employ the regression and the causality tests between regional financial development and regional economic growth in China. According to analysis results, first, there are the positive effects between financial interrelations ratio and economic growth in Chinese provincial level. Almost provinces in China have high regression coefficient between two variables. Especially Eastern provinces have more high than others because of their high financial development. It shows that banking loans have positive impacts on economic growth in these areas. But almost provincial financial deepening index have negative effects on economic growth, The financial deepening index in this article are estimated from deposit /GDP ratio, Second, the empirical analysis not only finds the financial development leads the economic growth but also investigates the economic growth supplies the financial development in Eastern provinces in China. And we show the evidence that there is a causal relationship between the financial development and the economic growth in Central provinces. While in Western provinces only the financial interrelations ratio have positive effects on the economic growth. It also asserts that GDP growth has positive impacts on the financial deepening in Northeastern provinces in China. As a result, we find that there are interrelationships between the regional economic growth and the regional financial development, also the regional economic growth needs the regional financial development in Chinese provinces.

기술혁신이론 관점의 지역경제성장 요인 연구

한정숙 ( Jeong Sook Han ) 한국생산성학회 2014 生産性論集 Vol.28 No.4

Many important researches have been focused on identifying the root causes that make a significant difference in income, added value, productivity and so forth. However, this study aims to understand how innovative capabilities impact on the economy growth in a particular region among the regions in the perspective of technological innovation. Before analyzing the regional growth into the level of innovative capability, a data sheet has been prepared for the study which is made of the level of innovative capability, socio-economic data for 16 different local governments. It went through a data transforming process to offset the effect of regional size difference as well as to overcome the economy of scale by which it introduces a value per capita or a common logarithm for better estimation. The time table is set from 2006 to 2012 for a period of 7 years since the data for regional investment is available from 2006, and it also includes the Sejong-city into Chungcheongnam-province due to maintaining consistency in categorizing regions. Appraisal model uses GRDP(Gross Regional Domestic Product) as a dependent variable and various innovation factors as independent variables with industrial variables and socio-economic variables as control variables as well. After analyzing overall regions, a comparative study has been subsequently carried out to draw any substantial implication in the policy making. While Module I is used for the total of 16 metropolitan city or Do, Module II is applied to a separate set of city or Do in which each has 8 data. Module Ⅲ has followed the steps to compare the size effect of economy between two groups of 6 regions with high or low GRDP. In the perspective of technology innovation, it can be summarized as follows: The regional economic growth has a negative correlation against the government sponsored R&D investment whereas it has a positive correlation with total amount of R&D investment and the number of researchers or 4-year colleges in the region. It implies the government sponsored R&D has been invested to regions from the standpoint of regional balanced development. Conversely, the autonomous investment is active in the private sector among regions with high economic growth. There are important policy implications from the result of empirical study: Firstly, government innovation policy should be diversified to each region having different economic environment and growth stage. Secondly, GSR(Government Sponsored R&D) for service industry should be enlarged because the weight of service industry and national R&D investment have no relationship from the empirical result of the regional analysis. Thirdly, national innovation policy should be led and focused on the efficiency of science and technology policy. One can expect to virtuous circle like "improvement of innovative capability of the region → regional economic growth → expansion to adjacent region → national-wide economic growth" through differentiated Science & Technology innovation policies depending on the situation of a given region.

패널 VAR 모형을 이용한 지역주택투자와 지역경제성장 간의 인과관계 분석

김소연,류수열 한국지역경제학회 2018 韓國地域經濟硏究 Vol.16 No.3

본 연구는 우리나라 지역건설투자와 지역경제성장 간의 인과관계를 살펴보기 위해 1995년부터 2015년까지 16개 광역시·도의 패널데이터를 사용하여 지역별 이질성을 고려한 패널분석을 실시한다. 특히 지역건설투자와 지역경제성장 간에 인과관계가 존재한다면 건설투자를 구성하는 주택투자, 비주택투자, 토목투자 중 어떤 투자가 경제성장과 인과관계가 있는지 네 변수를 포함한 패널 VAR 모형을 이용하여 분석한다. 먼저 시스템 GMM 추정량을 기반으로 패널 그랜저 인과관계 검정을 시행하였다. 분석 결과, 지역건설투자는 지역경제성장에 선행하며 원인변수로 작용한 것으로 나타났으며, 특히 지역건설투자 중 지역주택투자가 경제성장에 긍정적 요인으로 영향을 미친 것으로 확인되었다. 이는 경기활성화를 위한 주택투자 정책의 중요성에 시사점을 둘 수 있다. 뿐만 아니라 다양한 충격이 시스템 내에서 각 변수 증감에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 알아보기 위해 충격반응분석을 실시하였다. 그 결과, 지역건설투자, 특히 지역주택투자에 대한 충격은 단기적으로 지역경제성장을 양(+)의 영향으로 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다. This study uses panel data of 16 metropolitan cities and provinces of Korea from 1995 to 2015 and analyzes panel VAR model considering regional heterogeneity to examine the causal relationship between regional construction (or, housing, non-housing, and civil engineering) investment and regional economic growth. First, panel granger causality test is performed based on system GMM estimator. As a result, regional construction investment in Korea is preceded by regional economic growth and acted as a causal variable. Especially, it is confirmed that housing investment among construction investment has a positive effect on economic growth. This implies the importance of the housing investment policy to stimulate the regional economy. In addition, impulse response function is used to investigate the effects of various shocks of each variable to other variables in the system. It is shown that the regional construction investment, especially regional housing investment, has a positive impact on regional economic growth in the short term.