A comparative study of hype cycles among actors within the socio-technical system: With a focus on the case study of hybrid cars

American Elsevier 2012 TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE Vol.79 No.8

Many forms of technology cycle models have been developed and utilized to identify emergent technologies and forecast social changes, and among these, the technology hype cycle introduced by Gartner has become established as an effective method widely utilized in the field. However, if the hype cycle indeed exists in the various dimensions that constitute the socio-technical system, those who seek to analyze innovative activities using bibliometrics will be confronted with the new problem of actors' choices and the need to analyze their hype cycles. In seeking to overcome such limitations of conventional studies, this paper analyzes the hype cycles of three actors that constitute the core of the socio-technical system through the case study of the successful market entry of hybrid cars. The hype cycle of the user, the first actor, is analyzed based on the search traffic generated by their web searches, and the hype cycle of the producer or researcher, the second actor, is measured based on the data regarding patent applications. Lastly, the hype cycle of the information distributor, namely individuals constituting the market network, is analyzed by examining the exposure in news reports. The outcomes of this research showed that among the three actors, the consumers and the information distributors exhibited hype cycle patterns (bell curves) that were distinct from the market trend, and that there was a difference in time interval of around five quarters. By contrast, it was found that the hype cycle of the producers reflected a logical response, exhibiting a pattern similar to the S-curve during the market's growth period unlike the pattern found in other actors. In conclusion, this study of the particular case of hybrid cars confirmed that the two components of the hype cycle can be respectively verified using consumer search traffic and the patent applications made by the producers. If in the future, such analyses of the hype cycles of producers and consumers are expanded in application to various other industries, it will be possible to obtain more generalizable research outcomes. This is expected to contribute to determining technological life cycles or hype cycles with greater objectivity and efficacy, and furthermore to facilitate the systematic identification of promising technologies.

인공지능 기술에 관한 가트너 하이프사이클의 네트워크 집단구조 특성 및 확산패턴에 관한 연구

신선아(Sunah Shin),강주영(Juyoung Kang) 한국지능정보시스템학회 2022 지능정보연구 Vol.28 No.1

It is important to preempt new technology because the technology competition is getting much tougher. Stakeholders conduct exploration activities continuously for new technology preoccupancy at the right time. Gartners Hype Cycle has significant implications for stakeholders. The Hype Cycle is a expectation graph for new technologies which is combining the technology life cycle (S-curve) with the Hype Level. Stakeholders such as R&D investor, CTO(Chef of Technology Officer) and technical personnel are very interested in Gartners Hype Cycle for new technologies. Because high expectation for new technologies can bring opportunities to maintain investment by securing the legitimacy of R&D investment. However, contrary to the high interest of the industry, the preceding researches faced with limitations aspect of empirical method and source data(news, academic papers, search traffic, patent etc.). In this study, we focused on two research questions. The first research question was Is there a difference in the characteristics of the network structure at each stage of the hype cycle?. To confirm the first research question, the structural characteristics of each stage were confirmed through the component cohesion size. The second research question is ‘Is there a pattern of diffusion at each stage of the hype cycle?’. This research question was to be solved through centralization index and network density. The centralization index is a concept of variance, and a higher centralization index means that a small number of nodes are centered in the network. Concentration of a small number of nodes means a star network structure. In the network structure, the star network structure is a centralized structure and shows better diffusion performance than a decentralized network (circle structure). Because the nodes which are the center of information transfer can judge useful information and deliver it to other nodes the fastest. So we confirmed the out-degree centralization index and in-degree centralization index for each stage. For this purpose, we confirmed the structural features of the community and the expectation diffusion patterns using Social Network Serice(SNS) data in Gartner Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2021. Twitter data for 30 technologies (excluding four technologies) listed in Gartner Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2021 were analyzed. Analysis was performed using R program (4.1.1 ver) and Cyram Netminer. From October 31, 2021 to November 9, 2021, 6,766 tweets were searched through the Twitter API, and converting the relationship users tweet(Source) and users retweets (Target). As a result, 4,124 edgelists were analyzed. As a reult of the study, we confirmed the structural features and diffusion patterns through analyze the component cohesion size and degree centralization and density. Through this study, we confirmed that the groups of each stage increased number of components as time passed and the density decreased. Also Innovation Trigger which is a group interested in new technologies as a early adopter in the innovation diffusion theory had high out-degree centralization index and the others had higher in-degree centralization index than out-degree. It can be inferred that Innovation Trigger group has the biggest influence, and the diffusion will gradually slow down from the subsequent groups. In this study, network analysis was conducted using social network service data unlike methods of the precedent researches. This is significant in that it provided an idea to expand the method of analysis when analyzing Gartners hype cycle in the future. In addition, the fact that the innovation diffusion theory was applied to the Gartners hype cycles stage in artificial intelligence can be evaluated positively because the Gartner hype cycle has been repeatedly discussed as a theoretical weakness. Also it is expected that this study will provide a new perspective on d

기술·사회정보의 하이프 사이클 부합과 상관관계에 관한 연구 : 클라우드 컴퓨팅 산업을 중심으로

김재영(Jae Young Kim),이광형(Kwang Hyung Lee) 미래학회 2020 미래연구 Vol.5 No.1

산업은 기술의 발전과 사회의 변화로부터 영향을 받고, 산업의 미래전략은 기술, 시장, 정책이 조화롭게 설계되어야 한다. 본 연구는 기술정보인 특허와 논문의 양적 변화와 사회정보인 웹검색 트래픽이 하이프 사이클에 부합하는지 실증하고, 기술·사회정보간 상관관계를 분석하였다. 연구대상 산업은 비대면 사회의 기반 기술로 재조명되고 있는 클라우드 컴퓨팅으로 선정하였다. 특허 출원량, 논문 개재량, 웹검색 트래픽 모두 하이프 사이클에 부합하며, 각 정보마다 정점(peak)이 나타나는 시기와 단계별 발전 주기는 상이하였다. 정점의 시기는 웹검색보다 특허·논문이 1·2년씩 지연되어 나타났고, 웹검색은 발생기-1년, 버블기-3년, 환멸기-3년으로 단계별 전환 주기가 가장 짧으며, 논문은 발생기-2년, 버블기-6년. 환멸기-3년 이상으로 전환 주기가 가장 길었다. 특허의 주기는 웹검색과 논문의 사이에 있었다. 가트너가 발표한 클라우드 컴퓨팅 기술에 대한 하이프 사이클은 웹검색 트래픽과 가장 유사하며, 이를 통해 하이프 사이클은 인간의 태도가 강하게 반영되어 있는 이론이고, 사회의 관심이 기술의 발전보다 빠르게 반응하는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 연구결과 사회정보를 통해 기술정보에 대한 하이프 사이클을 예측할 수 있는 가능성과, 기술·사회정보에 대한 하이프 사이클의 발전 단계 전환시기를 예측할 수 있는 가능성을 보여주었다. 더 나아가 산업에 대한 미래예측과 기업의 마케팅·연구·투자 시점을 결정하는데 기술정보와 사회정보의 시차적 차이와 상관관계를 종합적으로 활용할 수 있는 가능성을 제시하였다. The industry has been influenced by technological innovations and social change, therefore, the industrial strategy needs to be designed to incorporate technologies, markets, and policies in order to respond to the challenge for the future. This paper verified whether technology information and social information follow the Hype Cycle graph, and analyzed the correlation between them. The technology information was collected from quantitative change of patents and papers, and the social information was collected from web search traffic and the “cloud computing” is selected as a technology for analysis as we are living in an untact era. The number of patent applications, the number of published papers, and web search traffic matched the Hype Cycle graph. Each information shows different timing of the peak occurring in the Hype Cycle, and the peak of patents/papers occurred 1-2 years lagging to the web search in this study. The web search traffic presented the fastest transition period between stages, 1 year for “Innovation Trigger”, 3 years for “Peak of inflated Expectation”, and 3 years for “Trough of Disillusionment”. The papers presented the slowest transition, 2 years for “Innovation Trigger”, 6 years for “Peak of inflated Expectation”, and more than 3 years for “Trough of Disillusionment”. The patents presented between the web search traffic and papers. The web search traffic is most closed to the Gartner’s Hype Cycle graph for cloud computing annually announced. It shows that the Hype Cycle representing human attitudes toward technology as social interest responds faster than technological innovations. This study shows that it is possible to predict the Hype Cycle of the technology information from the Hype Cycle of the social information, and may be possible to estimate the transition period of innovation stage by using the social information Hype Cycle. The prediction and estimation based on the correlation between the technology information and the social information can be used for the industrial strategy determining the timing of marketing, research, and investment.

웹 검색트래픽을 활용한 소비자의 기대주기 비교 연구

전승표(Seung-Pyo Jun),김유일(You Eil Kim),유형선(Hyoung Sun Yoo) 한국기술혁신학회 2013 기술혁신학회지 Vol.16 No.4

신기술을 발견하고, 사회적 변화를 예측ㆍ설명하기 위해 여러 가지 형태의 기술 수명주기 모델이 개발되어 활용되어 왔는데, 그 중에서 가트너(Gartner)사가 소개한 기술 기대주기(hype cycle) 이론은 현장에서 자주 활용되고 있으며 그 효과를 인정받고 있다. 그러나 널리 통용되는 인기에 비해서 현재 연구 문헌에서는 이론적 프레임과 관계 및 실증에 대한 고려가 부족했다. 본 연구에서는 이런 기대주기 모델의 새로운 실증적 측정 방법으로 제시된 웹 검색트래픽을 활용해 국내와 해외의 기대주기를 비교했다. 기존 연구에서 특정 제품이나 특정 국가에만 한정되었던 기대주기 분석을 검색트래픽을 활용해 비교 분석을 시도했다. 먼저 동일 제품에 대한 국가간 기대주기의 차이를 확인하기 위하여 검색트래픽과 신차판매점유율을 비교했는데, 국가간 기대주기의 유사성을 확인했으며, 통계적인 유의미성도 확인했다. 다음으로 동일 국간에서 제품간 기대주기의 차이를 확인하기 위하여 검색트래픽과 보급률을 비교해 보았는데, 역시 버블기의 정점 시기라는 측면에서 제품간 기대주기의 유사성도 확인했다. 본 연구는 검색트래픽을 활용한 사회현상 설명이나 기대주기 모델의 객관성과 설명력을 높이는데 크게 기여할 수 있으며, 나아가 마케팅 전략 수립과 같은 실질적인 기업전략 수립에까지 기여할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. In an effort to discover new technologies and to forecast social changes of technologies, a number of technology life-cycle models have been developed and employed. The hype cycle, a graphical tool developed by a consulting firm, Gartner, is one of the most widely used models for the purpose and it is recognised as a practical one. However, more research is needed on theoretical frames, relations and empirical practices of the model. In this study, hype cycle comparisons in Korean and global search websites were performed by means of web-search traffic which is proposed as an empirical measurement of public expectation, analysed in a specific product or country in previous researches. First, search traffic and market share for new cars were compared in Korea and the U.S. with a view to identifying differences between the hype cycles in the two countries about the same product. The results show the similarity between the two countries with the statistical significance. Next, comparative analysis between search traffic and supply rate for several products in Korea was conducted to check out their patterns. According to the analysis, all the products seem to be at the “Peak of inflated expectations” in the hype cycles and they are similar to one another in the hype cycle. This study is of significance in aspects of expanding the scope of hype cycle analysis with web-search traffic because it introduced domestic web-search traffic analysis from Naver to analyse consumers" expectations in Korea by comparison with that from Google in other countries. In addition, this research can help to explain social phenomina more persuasively with search traffic and to give scientific objectivity to the hype cycle model. Furthermore, it can contribute to developing strategies of companies, such as marketing strategy.

Hype Cycle의 동태적 인과구조와 첨단 IT의 지속가능성장을 위한 전략적 시사점

김상욱(Sang Wook KIM) 한국산업정보학회 2011 한국산업정보학회논문지 Vol.16 No.5

본 연구는 신기술의 지속가능성장을 위한 전략적 시사점을 도출하고자 기술과 사회의 공진화 과정에서 수반되는 하이프 현상 이면의 동태적 구조를 파악하는데 초점을 두고 있다. 특히 지속가능성이란 맥락에서 다음과 같이 일련의 문제를 제기하고 하이프 시스템 관리모델을 개발하고 시뮬레이션을 통해 그에 대한 답을 찾고자 하였다. 하이프 현상은 왜 발생하며 공진화의 최종 수렴수준을 높이기 위해서는 어떤 조치가 필요한가? 지속성장성을 담보하기 위한 정책수단들은 무엇이며 정책 개입시점은 언제라야 하는가? 본 연구의 결과는 학술적으로 뿐만 아니라 정책입안자에게도 유용한 시사점을 제공할 수 있을 것이다. In order to draw some strategic implications for the sustainable growth of emerging technologies this paper attempts to dynamics underlying the ‘hype cycle’ ever occurring in course of coevolution of technology and society. Particularly, a series of basic questions in the context of sustainability are explored to answer by simulating the hype system structure: What makes hype cycle occur? how to enhance the tapering level at the final stage of coevolution? what are the key policy leverages and when is the right time for the policy intervention? This study perhaps give some insights not necessarily to the academics but also to the practitioners and policy makers.

뉴스 내용분석과 하이프 사이클을 활용한 기술기획의 탐색적 연구

서윤교(Yoonkyo Suh),김시정(Si jeoung Kim) 한국기술혁신학회 2016 기술혁신학회지 Vol.19 No.1

기존 유망 신기술에 대한 기술기획의 방법론들은 대상 기술 자체에 초점을 두어 해당 기술이 영향을 미치는 사회 환경적 맥락 이해가 부족한 현실이다. 이에 본 연구는 과학 커뮤니케이션 분야에서 널리 쓰이고 있는 뉴스 내용분석 방법론이 유망 신기술 대한 기술기획에서 사회적 환경의 맥락적 이해를 위한 보완적 방법론으로 활용될 수 있음을 살펴보고자 한다. 기술-사회 공진화 환경에서 유망 신기술은 사회와의 관계에서 하이프(hype) 현상을 나타낸다. 이에 착안하여 뉴스 내용분석을 수행하여 해당 분석 결과가 하이프 사이클 궤적과 부합하는 지를 탐색적으로 살피고, 뉴스 프레임 분석을 통해서는 유망 신기술에 따른 사회적 가시성의 실체적 내용을 이해하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 대표적인 유망 신기술로 클라우드 컴퓨팅을 대상으로 뉴스 내용분석을 수행하였다. 종합지, 경제지 및 IT전문지를 대상으로 한 뉴스 내용분석 결과는 뉴스 보도빈도가 가트너가 제시한 하이프 사이클 궤적과 부합하였으며, 특히 보도 태도 및 뉴스 프레임 분석은 유망 신기술에 대한 거시 환경요인별 맥락적 내용을 이해할 수 있는 유용한 정보를 제공함을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 뉴스 내용분석이 기술기획에서 주로 활용되는 논문・특허를 중심으로 한 기술정보 분석의 한계점을 극복하고 거시환경 요인별 맥락 이해를 위한 보완적 방법론으로 활용될 수 있음을 시사한다. 결론적으로 기술기획의 거시환경 분석 단계에서 뉴스 내용분석 방법론의 활용은 기술-사회 공진화 관점의 상호 균형된 시각을 확보함에 기여할 수 있을 것이다. Existing methodologies of technology planning about promising new technology focused on target technology itself, so it is true that socio-environmental context which the relevant technology has influence on is not well understood. In this respect, this study is aimed to questingly examine that news content analysis methodologies widely available in the field of science communication can be applied as a complementary methodology for contextual understanding of socio-environment in terms of technology planning about promising new technology. In the co-evolutionary environment of technology-society, promising new technology shows hype phenomenon regarding the relation with the society. Based on this, this study performed news content analysis and examined if the consequences of analysis would match hype cycle. It tried to explore substantive content understanding by socio-environment factors according to specific news frame content. To do this, new content analysis was performed targeting cloud computing as a representative promising new technology. The result of news content analysis targeting general newspapers, business news, IT special newspapers revealed that the tendency of news reporting matched the trend of hype cycle. Particularly, it was verified that reporting attitude and news frame analysis provided useful information to understand contextual content depending on social, economic, and cultural environment factors about promising new technology. The results of this study implied that news content analysis could overcome the limitation of technology information analysis focusing on academic journal・patent usually applied for technology planning and could be used as a complementary methodology for understanding the context depending on macro-environment factors. In conclusion, application of news content analysis on the phase of macro-environment analysis of technology planning could contribute to the securement of mutually balanced view in the co-evolutionary perspective of technology-society.

기대주기 분석을 활용한 수요예측 연구: 하이브리드 자동차의 사례를 중심으로

전승표 한국기술혁신학회 2011 기술혁신학회지 Vol.14 No.S

This paper proposes a model for demand forecasting that will require less effort in the process of utilizing the new product diffusion model while also allowing for more objective and timely application. Drawing upon the theoretical foundation provided by the hype cycle model and the consumer adoption model, this proposed model makes it possible to estimate the maximum market potential based solely on bibliometrics and the scale of the early market, thereby presenting a method for supplying the major parameters required for the Bass model. Upon analyzing the forecasting ability of this model by applying it to the case of the hybrid car market, the model was confirmed to be capable of successfully forecasting results similar in scale to the market potential deduced through various other objective sources of information, thus underscoring the potentials of utilizing this model. Moreover, even the hype cycle or the life cycle can be estimated through direct linkage with bibliometrics and the Bass model. In cases where the hype cycles of other models have been observed, the forecasting ability of this model was demonstrated through simple case studies. Since this proposed model yields a maximum market potential that can also be applied directly to other growth curve models, the model presented in the following paper provides new directions in the endeavor to forecast technology diffusion and identify promising technologies through bibliometrics.

u-City 사업의 성숙도 평가 및 혁신요인 도출

노희진(Noh, Hee-Jin),진상윤(Chin, Sang-Yoon) 대한건축학회 2013 대한건축학회논문집 Vol.29 No.4

Ubiquitous technology has been emerged as a new topic in the field of information communication technology, and it has been increasingly applied for new city development or city remodeling by converging it with ICT in major cities. However, the current u-City has raised concerns about the uncertainty of the u-City business plan, and has difficulties to measure current status of u-City maturity and forecast future applications. Therefore, in order to determine the current position of the u-City in terms of its maturity, the recognition survey of the u-City in the media and practitioners are performed. And the basis of the survey results to analyze the differences in the recognition of the practitioners according to the purpose of the u-City construction is analyzed. In addition, innovation elements are derived for the development of u-City and key elements were identified for the further development of u-City based on its current maturity.

가트너 하이프 사이클의 시스템 다이나믹스 모델링

안현섭(Hyunsoup Ahn),신하용(Hayong Shin) 대한산업공학회 2008 대한산업공학회 추계학술대회논문집 Vol.2008 No.11

Gartner"s hype cycle, introduced in 1995, characterizes the typical progression of an emerging technology from overenthusiasm through a period of disillusionment to an eventual understanding of the technology"s relevance and role in a market or domain. In this paper, we present the dynamic mechanism underlying the related behaviors of the Gartner"s hype cycle by introducing the simulation technique for system dynamics, an approach to understanding the behavior of complex systems over time. Constructed by component-wise method, minimal model of hype cycle provides us with understanding crucial behaviors in terms of the expectation and the development of an emerging technology with parameter variation. The analysis derived from this paper allows both technology planners and enterprises to use it as a touchstone for business strategic decision-makings. Moreover, this model can be applicable to gain insight into other systems showing similar behaviors.

국방 드론의 적정 수명주기 분석

김세랑(Serang Kim),이경택(Kyungtaek Lee),노현일(Hyunil Noh) 항공우주시스템공학회 2023 항공우주시스템공학회 학술대회 발표집 Vol.2023 No.10

군은 전투력 향상과 드론 산업화를 위하여 드론을 군에 다양한 목적으로 도입하고 있다. 하지만 소형 무인기의 경제성, 기술 발전 속도 등을 고려한 수명주기가 설정되지 않아 기술 진부화 및 산업 선순환 저하 등의 문제가 우려된다. 이에 평균 시스템 비용 분석, 기술순환주기(TCT), 우크라이나-러시아 전쟁사례 및 유사 제품 시장 분석을 통해 소형무인기의 효율적인 운용을 위한 적정 수명주기를 제시하였다. 본 연구를 통해 군 소형무인기 활용 여건을 개선, 신개념 무기체계 활용에 기반한 전투력 향상과 동시에 국내 관련 산업계의 활성화를 기대한다. The military is introducing it to the military for various purposes to improve combat power and industrailize drones. However, since a life cycle has not been set considering the economic feasibility of small unmanned aerial vehicles and the speed of technology development, problems such as technology obsolescence and a decrease in the industrial virtuous cycle are concerned. Accordingly, the appropriate life cycle for the efficient operation of small unmanned aircraft was presented through average system cost analysis, technology cycle (TCT), Ukraine-Russia war cases, and similar product market analysis. Through this study, it will be possible to improve the conditions for the use of small military unmanned aerial vehicles, improve combat power based on the use of a new concept weapon system, and revitalize the domestic related industry.