중국의 비공식적 경제 제재

조형진,Cho, Hyungjin 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2021 Analyses & alternatives Vol.5 No.1

As the strategic competition between the United States and China for global hegemony intensifies, China is using economic sanctions against other countries more and more frequently. Republic of Korea, which has China as its largest trading partner but is an ally of the United States, is more likely to be a target of economic sanctions, as seen in China's retaliation toward its deployment of a THAAD missile-defense system. Against the background, this paper analyzes China's economic sanctions, especially focusing on its informality. China does not publicly declare economic sanctions in most cases, such as Korean one, in which the trade structure is in its favor and can take advantage of its position as a big buyer with huge markets. However, China responds in a more open and formal manner when it is related to its core interests, when it is impossible to exert substantial sanctions effect and when mutual disputes intensify and cannot maintain informality. Korea, which is vulnerable to China's informal economic sanctions, should prepare for them by analyzing the characteristics of China's economic sanctions in depth and thinking about various strategies and measures in advance. 미국과 중국의 전략적 경쟁이 격화되면서 중국을 비롯하여 전세계적으로 경제 제재가 더욱 빈번하게 사용되고 있다. 미국의 동맹국이면서도 중국을 최대 교역국으로 두고 있는 한국은 중국의 사드(THAAD) 배치에 대한 보복에서 보듯이 향후에도 경제 제재에 맞닥뜨릴 가능성이 높다. 이러한 배경에서 본 논문은 비공식성을 중심으로 중국의 경제 제재를 분석한다. 중국은 경제 제재를 거의 인정하지 않는다. 대부분의 경우, 중국은 한국의 사드 배치 사례처럼 거대한 시장을 가진 구매자로서의 지위를 적극 활용하여 비공식적으로 경제 제재를 시행한다. 핵심이익과 관련되어 있거나 유리한 무역구조를 활용할 수 없어 실질적인 제재 효과를 발휘할 수 없는 경우, 그리고 상호 분쟁이 고조되어 비공식성을 유지할 수 없을 때에만, 공식적인 대응을 한다. 중국의 비공식적 경제 제재에 취약한 한국은 무역구조를 개선하는 것과 함께 비공식성을 비롯한 중국의 경제 제재가 갖는 특성을 심도 있게 분석하면서 다양한 전략과 방안을 통해 이에 대비해야 할 것이다.

“민주평화론”의 정치적 위상과 진화가능성

최형익 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2022 분석과 대안 Vol.6 No.3

On the academy of international politics, the theory linking democracy and foreign policy is called “the Democratic Peace.” To summarize the main argument of that theory, it claims that the countries adopting a democratic political system do not go to war each other and maintain peace. In other words, if a war breaks out, it has the implication that it will only be possible between democratic countries and anti-democratic or non-democratic countries. The United States is a representative country that has led the post-war international order based on the “the Democratic Peace.” In the process of reorganizing the international order after World War II, the United States faced the need to blockade the communist camp centered on the Soviet Union and unite the Western camp. In addition, a new foreign policy that could intervene in global affairs was required by abandoning the isolationist ideology that had long supported US foreign policy. This was called the Internationalist diplomatic line as a new foreign policy. One of the core ideologies that underpin the internationalist foreign policy of the United States is the “the Democratic Peace.” The Republic of Korea is in a desperate position to prepare a new political foundation, at the same time, implementing a strategy for international relations and diplomacy based on democracy. Two options are possible here. Will we reject the “the Democratic Peace” as a Cold War ideology, or will we preserve its core values and modify and supplement it in a more innovative form to suit with our national interests and changing international circumstances? This article seeks to explore the evolutionary potential of “the Democratic Peace” through the discussion of John Rawls’ Law of Peoples while critically exploring the political implications of “the Democratic Peace” from the latter point of view by comparing it with Kant’s ‘Perpetual Peace.’

미·중 패권경쟁 사이에서 싱가포르의 외교적 선택과 시사점

이장원,박기형 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2022 분석과 대안 Vol.6 No.3

싱가포르는 미·중과 동시에 밀접한 안보·경제 관계를 맺고 있지만 또한 자주적이고 원칙적으로 대응한다. 이는 한국에도 시사점을 준다. 독립 이래 싱가포르의 지정학적 취약성은 외교정책의 주요 동인이 되었다. 싱가포르 외교의 일관된 목표는 첫째, 생존권과 발전권 확보; 둘째, 신뢰성 있고 억지력을 갖춘 국방력을 유지하고 자유롭고 개방적인 국제무역체제를 통한 경제발전과 지속가능한 번영을 확보; 셋째, 아세안에 적극 참여하여 역내 국가와의 선린우호관계를 유지하고, 지역통합 강화를 통해 싱가포르의 대외 발언권을 확보; 넷째, 동남아시아 및 아태지역의 평화적 안보환경 조성이다. 이에따라 싱가포르는 정치 안정을 통한 경제적 번영 확보, 주권 보장을 위한 자주적 균형외교, 모든 국가들과 선린우호 관계를 형성하고 적을 만들지 않는 다자주의 추구, 국제법과 규범 존중의 원칙을 바탕으로 균형 있는 비동맹의 유연한 실용외교를 전개하고있다. 싱가포르는 역내의 다른 국가들과 마찬가지로 미·중 양국과 경제·안보적으로 밀접한 관계를 맺고 있기에 미·중 패권경쟁의 영향을 받고 있다. 싱가포르는 미국의 역내 재균형 전략을 공개적으로 지지하면서도 중국에 대한 견제와는 조심스럽게 구분하고 있으며, 경제 분야 뿐만 아니라 군사안보 측면에서도 중국과 실질적인 협력을 전개하고 있다. 이중적으로 보일지 모르지만 싱가포르는 미·중 사이에서 자국의 생존과 국익을 확보할 수 있는 동태적 균형을 유지하기 위해 노력하고 있다.

The Pursuit of the EU’s Strategic Autonomy: Motivated, but still Ambiguous

윤성욱 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2022 분석과 대안 Vol.6 No.3

The purpose of this research is to analyse what motivates the EU for its strategic autonomy, but to explore what makes the EU still uncertain over European strategic autonomy. Even though there are still controversies over the issues regarding strategic autonomy, the EU is likely to intend to pursue its autonomous policies in various fields. The problem is, however, that it is not clear yet what the EU’s position is in terms of strategic autonomy. This results in various speculations on the possibility and necessity of the EU’s policies based on the notion of strategic autonomy, and even implications on transatlantic relations. This paper introduced various issues which motivated the EU to strengthen strategic autonomy such as rivalry competition between the US and China, the US withdrawal of the JCPOA and the Paris Climate agreement, the EU-China CAI and the AUKUS pact. The advent of the Trump administration which caused transatlantic tensions served as a momentum to add fuel to blazing up debates over strategic autonomy within the EU. In spite of these motivations, this research argues that the reasons for the EU’s ambiguous position on strategic autonomy are internal and external worries: internally, there are worries of power concentration to particular member states, notably France and Germany; and externally, the pursuit of European strategic autonomy is generally perceived to deteriorate a traditional transatlantic relationship.

탈중국을 위한 대만 남향정책의 지속과 변화: 균형과 편승의 동학

김선재,김수한,Kim, Sunjae,Kim, Suhan 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2022 분석과 대안 Vol.6 No.1

This paper analyzes Taiwan's 「New Southbound Policy」 from the perspective of 'balancing' and 'bandwagoning' in international politics. Specifically, it examines the changes and characteristics of 'Southbound policies' that have continued since the period of the Lee Teng-hui(李登輝) administration, and examines the meaning of the New Southbound Policy promoted by the Tsai Ing-wen(蔡英文) administration. Taiwan's foreign policy has been strongly influenced by external variables such as U.S.-China relations. Previous Taiwanese governments have actively promoted Southbound policies to advance to Southeast Asian countries such as ASEAN with the aim of 'De-Sinicization', but have not achieved much results. This is because variables such as cooperative U.S.-China relations and strong checks from China played a role at the time. In this environment, Taiwan had to pursue an appropriate 'balancing' between the United States, China, and Southeast Asian countries. However, since the inauguration of the Trump administration, strategic competition between the U.S. and China has been maximized, creating a new space for Taiwan's foreign policy. This is because the U.S. valued cooperation with Taiwan in the process of embodying the 'Indo-Pacific Strategy' to curb China's rise. The New Southbound Policy promoted by the Tsai Ing-won administration is different from the existing Southbound policies in that it seeks to link with the U.S. India-Pacific Strategy and attempts to advance to South Asian countries such as India. From an international political point of view, the Tsai Ing-won administration's New Southbound Policy can be interpreted as a 'bandwagoning' to the United States, not a balanced strategy between the U.S. and China. Strategic competition between the U.S. and China is expected to intensify for a considerable period of time in the future, and honeymoon between Taiwan and the U.S. are also expected to continue. Taiwan's bandwagoning strategy, which actively pursues a link between the New Southbound Policy and the India-Pacific Strategy, is also expected to be maintained.

지역 노동시장에서 대기업 고용 변화의 임금 효과

백명호 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2022 분석과 대안 Vol.6 No.3

이 연구는 지역 노동시장에서 대기업 고용비율의 소득 및 임금 효과를 분석한다. 300 인 이상 규모 사업체에 종사하는 비율은 시도별로 상당한 차이를 보이며 연도별 변화추세도 상이하게 나타난다. 광역시도 패널 자료를 활용한 시도 고정효과 모형의 분석결과 대기업 고용비율과 고용규모는 1인당 지역내총생산 또는 지역총소득에 긍정적인관계를 보이는 반면 개인소득에는 아무런 영향을 미치지 못하는 것으로 나타난다. 또한, 대기업 고용비율과 중소기업의 평균 임금은 오히려 부정적인 관계가 있는 것으로드러난다. 이와 유사한 결과는 개인 수준의 노동패널 자료의 분석에서도 확인되는데개인 및 일자리의 특성을 통제한 개인 고정효과 모형을 추정한 결과 지역 노동시장의대기업 고용비율은 전반적으로 임금과 음의 관계에 있는 것으로 분석된다. 이러한 연구 결과는 대기업 유치 등을 통한 지역 경제의 성장이 직접적으로 개인소득 및 임금향상으로 이어지지 않을 수 있음을 시사한다. 따라서, 지역 주민의 생활수준 향상을 위한 정책을 마련하는 경우 기업 투자 유치 외에도 중소기업 종사자 및 자영업자들에 대한 영향을 고려할 필요가 있음을 보여준다.

Evolution of U.S. Military Strategy Since the 2010s: U.S.-China Rivalry and Strategic Pivot to East Asia

공민석 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2022 분석과 대안 Vol.6 No.3

The purpose of this article is to trace the evolutionary process of U.S. military strategy and its implications within a structural and macroscopic context of change in America’s grand strategy since the 2010s. The most important change that defined the U.S. global strategy during the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 was the sense of crisis of deteriorating hegemony and the rapid rise of China. East Asia was the region of utmost importance in terms of responding to such change and the U.S. searched vigorously for a new global strategy that centers around East Asia. The ‘Rebalance toward the Asia-Pacific’ strategy of the Obama administration and the global strategies of the Trump and Biden administrations, which were both focused on the Indo-Pacific, were all results of such strategic thinking. U.S. military strategy also changed in tandem with such a transition in the global strategy. Despite the budgetary restrictions during the Obama administration, the U.S. drastically reinforced equipment in the Asia-Pacific region and proposed the air-sea battle and JOAC as a new concept of operation that takes into account a potential conflict with China. The Trump administration expanded the Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific and strengthened the tendency of military reinforcement in the West Pacific. Also, JADO, a developed form of JOAC, was declared as a new concept of operation, and the strengthening of integrated conduct of operation capability and cutting-edge military power was emphasized. The Biden administration developed JADO to JWC and strengthened the third offset strategy through the concept of Integrated deterrence, which centers on cutting-edge defense sciences and technology. Such evolution of U.S. military strategy observed since the 2010s shows that the U.S. military strategy, which takes into account a strategical competition with China, maintains a flow of consistency despite various domestic and foreign changes. This also implies that the current military strategy of the U.S. will not change in a short period. Amid the intensification of a new Cold War confrontation, there lies a great risk of aggravated tension within East Asia when the Biden administration’s strategy of restoring alliance and China’s aggressive foreign strategy collide.

체제전환기 중·러 엘리트 정치 구조 변화에 대한 비교분석: 다른 과정, 같은 결과

주장환,연담린 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2022 분석과 대안 Vol.6 No.3

This study is focused on changes of the state and the political elite structure during the transition period. Specifically, it compares and analyzes changes in the structure of political elites in China and Russia, which are representative countries in the transition period. An analysis period is Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping in China and Putin in Russia. During this period, both countries proceeded with regime transition in different directions and reached the same goal. The analytic framework is a types of oligarchy with two main concepts: the role of the oligarchy in the exercise of coercion and the essence of governance. As a result of the analysis, interestingly, the structures of elite politics of these countries, which had different directions of regime transition, were changing in a similar direction. In other words, it changed from a ‘ruling’ oligarchy to a ‘sultanistic’. The results of this study are as follows: from the same starting line of a socialism and planned economy, the elite political structure of Russia, which has transitioned to a capitalism, and the elite political structure of China, which has transitioned to the socialist market economy(SME), is changing in a similar direction.

선거제도 개편을 통한 러시아 정치 엘리트의 지배력 유지 전략

김시헌,장세호 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2023 분석과 대안 Vol.7 No.1

This study examines and identified a series of strategies of Russia’s political elites to maintain and strengthen their dominance by reviewing the case of revisions in the election laws of Russia in 2014. At that time, a mixed-member electoral system was newly introduced, and on the surface, it seemed that the new system was a step toward meeting the demands of the people for “enhanced democracy”. However, in 2016 and 2021, the ruling party of Russia won the general elections by making the most of the factors that could distort the election results inherent in the mixed-member electoral system. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze whether the revision of election laws was a mere vehicle used by the ruling party, United Russia, to maintain its political power, or whether it was a leap forward to achieve democracy. The study result indicate that the revision of election laws in 2014 was part of the policy responses to the internal conflicts in the circle of Russia’s political elites, which had been rising since 2008, as well as to the public resistance. In other words, it was confirmed that the revision of election laws was one of the measures taken to “minimize competition” and “reproduce political power on a stable basis”.

쑨원 민생주의에 대한 일고찰: 공상인가, 중국식 사회주의인가

이남주 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2022 분석과 대안 Vol.6 No.3

This thesis aims to re-examine the possibilities and limitations of Sun Wen(孫文)'s Minshengzhuyi(民生主義) and to suggest its implications for socialist practices. To this end, I analyzed the process of formation of the Minshengzhuyi and the contents of its core programs, i.e. equalization of land rights and controlling capital. Minshengzhuyi has long been defined as subjective socialism or utopian socialism in China. However, Minshengzhuyi is the most pioneering and representative example of the Sinicization of socialism. In addition, the approach of using capitalist methods for socialist construction can be said to have captured the core contents of socialist reform in current China. Therefore, some scholars also began to positively evaluate the socialist nature of the Minshengzhuyi. However, there is a limit to advancing theoretical thinking in evaluating Minshengzhuyi only by focusing on the similarity with the current Chinese official theory. This paper argued that the notion of the double project of simultaneously adapting to and overcoming the modernity can help to more clearly grasp the present significance of Minshengzhuyi. From the perspective of double project, the contents of Minshengzhuyi, which were defined as utopian or subjective in the past, have meaning as a more realistic method of socialist construction. At the same time, it is possible to shed new light on the limitations of Minshengzhuyi. Sun Wen could not provide an answer to the question of how to form a political and social driving force that can realize Minshengzhuyi. Though Sun Wen opposed the class struggle, he did not offer a viable alternative. This is a problem that China has yet to solve. The future of China's socialist practice will also depend on how it solves this problem.