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홍성준,조강수,Mooyoung Han,류현열,Choung Soo Kim,류수방,Chong Koo Sul,정문기,박동춘,김형진,the Korean Urological Oncology Society 대한의학회 2008 Journal of Korean medical science Vol.23 No.3
We developed nomograms to predict disease recurrence in patients with Ta, T1 transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder. Thirty-eight training hospitals participated in this retrospective multicenter study. Between 1998 and 2002, a total of 1,587 patients with newly diagnosed non-muscle invasive bladder cancer were enrolled in this study. Patients with prior histories of bladder cancer, non-transitional cell carcinoma, or a follow-up duration of less than 12 months were excluded. With univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, we constructed nomograms to predict disease recurrence, and internal validation was performed using statistical techniques. Three-year and five-year recurrence-free rates were 64.3% and 55.3%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that age (hazard ratio [HR]=1.437, p< 0.001), tumor size (HR=1.328, p=0.001), multiplicity (HR=1.505, p<0.001), tumor grade (HR=1.347, p=0.007), concomitant carcinoma in situ (HR=1.611, p=0.007), and intravesical therapy (HR=0.681, p<0.001) were independent predictors for disease recurrence. Based on these prognostic factors, nomograms for the prediction of disease recurrence were developed. These nomograms can be used to predict the probability of disease recurrence in patients with newly diagnosed Ta, T1 transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder. They may be useful for patient counseling, clinical trial design, and patient follow-up planning.
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