지가(地價), 환율(換率)과 거품

박원암,Park, Won-am 한국개발연구원 1992 韓國 開發 硏究 Vol.14 No.4

본호(本鎬)는 지난 몇년간 우리나라 주가(株價) 및 지가(地價)의 급변을 거품현상(現象)으로 해석하는 견해(見解)를 재검토(再檢討)하고 시장기본요인(市場基本要因)의 중요성을 강조하고자 하였다. 자산가격변화(資産價格變化)에 대한 자기실현적(自己實現的) 예측(豫測)에 바탕을 둔 거품이론(理論)으로 최근 우리나라의 주가(株價) 및 지가변동(地價變動)을 설명하기에는 여러가지 제약점이 있다. 지난 몇년간 우리나라 주가(株價) 및 지가(地價)의 급변을 거품현상이라고 주장하는 사람들은 거품의 존재유무(存在有無)에 대한 검증 없이 막연하게 자산가격의 급변 내지는 불규칙한 변동을 거품현상으로 해석하는 경향이 있으며 주가(株價) 및 지관(地慣)의 거품검증을 시행한 경우에도 검증과정에서 여러가지 계량경제학적(計量經濟學的) 문제점을 보이고 있고, 근본적으로는 검증모형(檢證模型)이 잘못 구체화되었다는 오특정(誤特定)(misspecification)의 문제를 안고 있다. 본고(本稿)에서는 지난 몇 년간 우리나라 지가(地價) 및 주가변화(株價變化)를 3저여건(低與件)의 도래와 퇴조에 따른 경제여건의 변화와 시장기본요인의 변화로 설명할 수 있음을 보였다. 우선 실질금리(實質金利), 성장율(成長率) 등 시장기본요인(市場基本要因)의 변화로 우리나라 주가 및 지가변화를 상당부분 설명할 수 있었으며, 다음으로는 이부문(二部門) 일반균형(一般均衡) 자산구성모형(資産構成模型)을 구성하여 유동성(游動性) 및 환율(換率)이 변화할 때 지가(地價)의 과잉변동현상(過剩變動現像)이 발생함을 보였다. 1986~89년간 지가(地價)의 급등(急騰)은 동(同) 기간중(期間中) 엔화절상(貨切上), 원화절상(貨切上) 및 유동성증가(流動性增加)(실질금리(實質金利)의 하락(下落))에 따른 것이며, 90년 이후 지가상승세(地價上昇勢)의 둔화(鈍化)는 동(同) 기간중(期間中) 엔화절하(貨切下), 원화절하(貨切下)로의 반전 및 유동성압박(流動性壓迫)에 따른 실질금리(實質金利)의 상승(上昇)과 밀접히 관련되어 있다. This paper stresses the role of market fundamentals rather than bubbles in explaining Korea's recent experience of large fluctuations of stock and real estate prices. The bubble story that emphasizes the self-fulfilling prophecies of investors seems to be inappropriate to explain the recent changes of assets prices in Korea. Those who argue for bubble phenomenon in Korea tend to interpret the volatile movements of assets prices as some form of bubbles, but without implementing a rigorous test on the presence of bubbles. Even when some bubble tests are carried out, such studies exhibit various econometric problems in testing. More seriously, they suffer from the misspecification problems in setting up a market model. This paper has shown that Korea's recent changes in assets prices could be explained by changes in market fundamentals according to the emergence and the subsequent fading of 'three lows'. First, it tried to explain changes in assets prices by changes in such market fundamentals as real interest rates and economic growth. Second, it showed that the real estate prices overshoot when the liquidity and exchange rates change, using the two-sector general equilibrium portfolio balance model. It is argued that the rapid rise in real estate prices during 1986-89 stems from Yen's and Won's appreciation $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the U.S. dollar and liquidity expansion (or decreases in real interest rates), while the downturn in real estate prices since 1990 is associated with Yen's and Won's depreciation $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the U.S. dollar and rises in real interest rates in reflection of the excess demand for liquidity.

글로벌 금융위기와 물가안정목표제 평가: 근원인플레이션을 중심으로

박원암,Park, Won-Am 한국개발연구원 2010 韓國 開發 硏究 Vol.32 No.3

본고에서는 글로벌 금융위기의 충격을 산출량에 장기적 중립성을 가지는 근원적 충격과 장기적 중립성을 가지지 않는 비근원적 충격으로 나누어 글로벌 금융위기 기간 중 근원적 충격이 물가안정목표 달성에 미친 영향을 분석하였다. 본고에서 보인 바와 같이 글로벌 금융위기가 수요에 미친 영향과 이로 인해 물가가 안정된 효과를 제대로 파악하지 못하면 향후 물가안정이 어려워질 수 있다. 농산물과 석유류 제품의 일시적 공급충격을 제거한 통상적 근원인플레이션을 기준으로 평가하면, 2007~09년 중 물가안정목표는 안정적으로 달성된 것처럼 보이고 향후 목표 달성도 무난해 보인다. 그러나 중앙은행의 통제 대상인 구조적 근원인플레이션을 기준으로 평가하면 매우 달라진다. 글로벌 금융위기를 전후한 수요충격으로 근원인플레이션이 크게 변동하였으며, 2007~09년 중 물가안정목표 달성은 글로벌 금융위기에 따른 마이너스 성장에 기인한 바가 크다. 또한 글로벌 금융위기 이후 각종 경기확대정책에 힘입어 경기가 빠르게 회복되면서 근원인플레이션이 급격하게 상승하고 있으므로 향후 적절한 출구전략을 마련해야 한다. The global financial crisis has exerted enormous impacts on the attainment of inflation target in Korea. The annual average CPI inflation was 3.3% during the targeting period of 2007-2009 and the target was $3.0{\pm}0.5%$. Thus Korea has succeeded in keeping annual average CPI inflation just below the upper limit of the 2007-2009 target under the global crisis. This paper intends to evaluate the performance of the inflation targeting system in Korea. First, it estimates the conventional call rate reaction equation under the global crisis and finds that the policy interest rates never reacted to expected inflation, output gap, and won/dollar exchange rate, as expected by theory. Second, it identifies the shock of global financial crisis into core and non-core, applying the structural VAR model. The core shock was defined to have no (medium- to) long-run impact on real output. The core shock was identified to have the character of the demand shock, since it has the positive impact on the inflation and output in the short run. The structural core inflation due to core shock was an attractor of headline inflation, not vice versa. Therefore, the structural core inflation that reflects the demand-side shock would be the better intermediate target for the final headline inflation target than the official core inflation that excludes the volatile inflation of agricultural and oil-related products. During the inflation targeting period of 2007-2009, the structural core inflation was more volatile than the official core inflation, because the global crisis has very large negative impacts on the domestic demand as well as the prices of agricultural and oil-related products. This paper shows that the negative core shock during the fourth quarter of 2008 was larger than that in the financial crisis in 1998. But the core shock turned into positive very quickly in 2009, as the Korean economy recovered very quickly from crisis. The volatile changes in structural core inflation suggests that the Bank of Korea barely managed to attain the 2007-2009 inflation target, owing to the very large negative impacts of the global financial crisis on the domestic demand. It also suggests that the rapid rise in core inflation with the rapid recovery of the Korean economy will lead to rapid rise in headline inflation.

Solitary Lymphoblastic Lymphoma of the Thoracic Spine

Park, Dong Am,Park, Sang Gon,Kim, Seok Won The Korean Neurosurgical Society 2012 Journal of Korean neurosurgical society Vol.52 No.6

Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma rarely originates from bone, and even more infrequently from a vertebral body. Lymphoblastic lymphoma is a rare type of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, and results from an abnormality in adaptive immune cells. A 27-year-old man presented with a two-month history of night sweats, weight loss, and severe back pain. Radiological studies demonstrated an osteolytic lesion compressing the subarachnoid space at the T11 level. Posterolateral fusion with decompression was performed and a pathologic examination confirmed lymphoblastic lymphoma of the B-cell precursor type. To our knowledge, this is the first report of solitary lymphoblastic lymphoma from B-cell precursors in of the thoracic spine. Herein, we discuss the presenting symptoms and the management of this rare case of lymphoblastic lymphoma.

Occurrence of metachronous or synchronous lesions after endoscopic treatment of gastric epithelia dysplasia- impact of histologic features of background mucosa

Park, Won-Young,Lee, So-Jeong,Kim, Young-Keum,Kim, Ahrong,Park, Do Youn,Lee, Bong-Eun,Song, Geun-Am,Kim, Gwang Ha Elsevier 2018 Pathology, research and practice Vol.214 No.1

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P><B>Aims</B></P> <P>Endoscopic resection is a safe and effective method to treat gastric epithelia dysplasia (GED). However, the development of metachronous and synchronous lesions after treatment has become a major concern. In this study, we investigated clinicopathologic features of 105 GED lesions from endoscopic resections between January 2008 and December 2009. Our goal is to find histologic factors that predict synchronous and metachronous lesions after ESD treatment. We assessed the degree of intestinal metaplasia (IM) and atrophy, type of IM, presence of gastritis cystica profunda, and crypt dysplasia in the adjacent mucosa.</P> <P><B>Methods and results</B></P> <P>We divided 105 GED lesions into three groups: a single group without metachronous or synchronous GED or adenocarcinoma (n=35); a multiple synchronous group (n=30, group with synchronous occurrence of GED or adenocarcinoma after treatment); and a multiple metachronous group (n=40, group with metachronous occurrence of GED or adenocarcinoma after treatment). The multiple metachronous and synchronous groups showed larger sizes (p=0.003) and higher grades (p=0.021) as compared with the single group. Furthermore, marked IM and atrophy in adjacent mucosa were more easily seen in the multiple metachronous and synchronous groups as compared with the single group (p<0.0001). Interestingly, the presence of incomplete type of IM (p=0.025) and crypt dysplasia (p<0.0001) in background mucosa was associated with occurrence of metachronous and synchronous lesions following endoscopic resection of GED.</P> <P><B>Conclusions</B></P> <P>The histological features of background mucosa, such as intestinal metaplasia, atrophy, and crypt dysplasia could be used as indicators of occurrence of metachronous and synchronous lesions after endoscopic treatment of GED.</P>

EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS IN DUAL EXCHANGE MARKETS

PARK, WON AM 한국국제경제학회 1995 International Economic Journal Vol.9 No.1

Anticipated Shocks , Intertemporal Speculation and Speculative Run

PARK, WON AM 한국경제학회 1987 The Korean Economic Review Vol.3 No.1

Endoscopic Treatment of Dieulafoy Lesions and Risk Factors for Rebleeding

( Won Lim ),( Tae Oh Kim ),( Su Bum Park ),( Ha Rin Rhee ),( Jin Hyun Park ),( Jung Ho Bae ),( Hong Ryeul Jung ),( Mi Ra Kim ),( Na Ri A Lee ),( Sun Mi Lee ),( Gwang Ha Kim ),( Jeong Heo ),( Geun Am S 대한내과학회 2009 The Korean Journal of Internal Medicine Vol.24 No.4

Background/Aims: Dieulafoy lesions are an important cause of upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The purpose of this study was to assess the efficacy of endoscopic treatment for these lesions and to identify the possible predictive factors for rebleeding associated with clinical and endoscopic characteristics. Methods: Records from 44 patients admitted with Dieulafoy bleeding between January 2006 and December 2007 were reviewed. We retrospectively analyzed the clinical and endoscopic findings and then correlated the rebleeding risk factors with Dieulafoy lesions. Results: Primary hemostasis was achieved by endoscopic treatment in 39 patients (88.6%). There were no significant differences between the rebleeding and non-rebleeding groups with respect to age, gender, initial hemoglobin levels, presence of shock, concurrent disease, location of bleeding, or initial hemostatic treatment methods. However, the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or anticoagulants (p=0.02) and active stages in the Forrest classification (p<0.01) were risk factors for rebleeding after endoscopic therapy. Conclusions: Endoscopic therapy is effective and safe for treating Dieulafoy lesions, and it has both short-and long-term benefits. Early identification of risk factors such as the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or anticoagulants and the Forrest classification of bleeding predict the outcome of Dieulafoy lesions. (Korean J Intern Med 2009;24:318-322)

글로벌 금융위기와 우리나라 주택시장: 특성과 거품검정

( Won Am Park ) 한국국제경제학회 2014 국제경제연구 Vol.20 No.4

부동산과 금융위기에 대한 우리나라의 경험은 미국 등 부동산시장이 호황을 보였던 선진국들과 크게 다르다. 글로벌 금융위기 이후에도 전국평균 명목주택가격은 상승추세를 유지하였다. 그러나 2000년대 부동산가격 상승기에 수도권은 실질주택가격이 급등한데 반해, 비수도권은 실질주택가격이 하락하는 부동산시장의 양극화가 나타났다. 이와 같은 양극화 상황을 반영하여 25개 도시별로 주택가격의 거품여부를 검정하였다. 거품검정방법으로는 시장기본 요인을 이용한 회귀분석의 표본외 예측과 현재가치모형에 대한 검정방법을 채택하였다. 각 검정방법은 문제점이 있으나 우리나라 주택시장은 도시별로 거품이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 저금리 등 거시경제여건에 따라 수도권 주택가격이 급등하면서 거품현상이 나타났으며, 동일한 여건에서 주택가격이 하락한 비수도권의 주택시장도 시장기본요인을 반영하지 못한 거품현상이었다. The global financial crisis in 2008 was associated with the housing boom in US and other advanced countries. However, Korea`s experience of housing boom before the global financial crisis was different from that in US. The housing boom was confined to the Seoul and surrounding provinces. Other regions suffered the housing bust. Considering regional differences in housing cycles, we carried out the bubble test in 25 cities by applying the out-of-sample forecast from the regression of house price on fundamentals and the cointegration and efficiency test of present value models of housing price. The empirical evidence suggests that there was a bubble not only in the housing boom area but also in the housing bust area.

Endoscopy and Imaging Modalities/Basic Science of Gastrointestinal Disorders/Miscellaneous : Helicobacter Pylori Caga Increases C-Jun Expression By The Orphan Nuclear Receptor SHP Induction In Gastritis

( Won Il Park ),( Hyung Wook Kim ),( Jin Kwang An ),( Kwang Jin Kim ),( Hye Young Kim ),( Jae Hun Cheong ),( Geun Am Song ),( Ung Suk Yang ) 대한소화기학회 2007 SIDDS Vol.9 No.-

Background/Aims: Chronic erosive gastritis (CEG) is a type of chromic inflammation of the gastric mucosa, characterized by discrete, central umbilication surrounded by the slight protrusion. Here, we identified the molecular mediators of development of CEG and its relation with induction of proinflammatory cytokine in gastric cells. Methods: SHP induction was found in CEG lesion H. pylori CagA increased the SHP gene expression at the transcriptional level through activation of transcription factor c-Jun. The DNA-binding of c-Jun at SHP cognate promoter was induced by CagA. CagA also enhanced the protein interaction of NF-α B and SHP, resulting in an increase of c-Jun expression and subsequently further producing the inflammatory cytokine. TNF α. Results: We found that the positive feedback expression and cascade transactivation of SHP and c-Jun by CagA increased the inflammatory cytokine production in gastric cells. Conclusions: These results suggest that SHP induction might play a critical role in mediating the induction of gastritis and provide pre-clue for development of gastric cellular malformation from gastritis.

Optimal Current Account and the External Debt for Korea

Won-Am Park 서울대학교 경제연구소 1993 Seoul journal of economics Vol.6 No.2

The paper investigates the optimal path of Korea's current account and external debt by building a dynamic model of consumption and Investment. It determines the Investment and growth on the basis of Tobin's q theory for a small open economy with foreign debt and examines the relationship among the market value of capital, the marginal product of capital, and the Interest rate In Korea. It also discusses the problems in determining the optimal consumption under dynamic solvency constraints.